Morning Digest: Georgia Democrats could flip this red seat in a December special election
After two massive statewide wins last week, the wind is at their backs
Leading Off
GA State House
Following their resounding triumphs at the ballot box last week, Georgia Democrats have an upcoming opportunity to flip a conservative seat in the state House that sharply rejected Republican candidates in a pair of elections for the state’s Public Service Commission.
The Dec. 9 battle for the vacant 121st District in the Athens area pits Democrat Eric Gisler, who works in the insurance technology industry, against Republican Mack “Dutch” Guest IV, the owner of a trucking company. The seat became vacant at the end of October when Republican state Rep. Marcus Wiedower unexpectedly announced that he would resign to pursue opportunities in the private sector.
Ordinarily, Wiedower’s district would be an easy hold for the GOP. Last year, he defeated Gisler, whom Democrats swapped in after their original nominee dropped out following the primary, by a wide 61-39 margin, and Donald Trump carried the same turf by a 56-43 spread.
Nationwide, though, Democrats have been beating the presidential baseline in special elections by an average of 13 points, according to The Downballot’s tracker. Georgia Democrat Debra Shigley likewise outperformed by a similar 11 points in a much redder Senate district north of Atlanta in late September.
It’s the two contests for the Public Service Commission, though, that truly stand out. The board is normally elected in even-numbered years, but long-running litigation resulted in two members going before voters in special elections last week. The result was an epic drubbing.
Democrats in both races won by the same 63-37 margin, an astonishing outcome in a swing state that, over the past decade, has almost always played host to much tighter affairs. Those victories represented the first wins for Democrats in a non-federal statewide race in Georgia since 2006.
They also cut the GOP’s margin on the commission, which regulates public utilities, to 3-2, giving Democrats the chance to take the majority when another seat is up next year.
En route to their landslide wins, the two Democratic candidates for the PSC also carried the 121st District comfortably: Alicia Johnson prevailed by a 58-42 margin, and Peter Hubbard won by a similar 59-41 spread, according to calculations by The Downballot. (In raw votes, their margins of victory were only about 200 votes apart.)
Compared to Trump’s showing in the district, the PSC races represented a swing of around 30 points. Even a shift of half that magnitude would put Gisler in a position to pick up the seat—and capturing that enthusiasm, he acknowledged, would be key to his chances.
“Reaching out to the same people, Democratic voters who voted last week, and thanking them for that, and asking them to turn out one more time to vote for me,” he told the Georgia Recorder’s Alander Rocha. “I think that gives us a real shot at winning this election.”
Regardless of what happens next month, Republicans will maintain their majority in the gerrymandered state House, where they hold a 98-79 advantage, with this seat and two others vacant. But with Democrats defending Jon Ossoff’s Senate seat and hoping to flip the open governorship next year, they’ll be eagerly awaiting to see whether Gisler can keep their momentum going.
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Election Recaps
Seattle, WA Mayor
Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell on Thursday conceded to progressive organizer Katie Wilson, a fellow Democrat, one day after media outlets projected that she had prevailed in last week’s race to lead Washington’s largest city.
Governors
NY-Gov
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman said Wednesday that he would decide “in the next three to four weeks” whether to seek the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. Blakeman would enter a difficult June primary against Rep. Elise Stefanik, who has the support of the state GOP chair and many county party leaders.
RI-Gov
Businessman Greg Stevens, who owns a local chain of Italian restaurants, said Wednesday that he would challenge Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee in September’s Democratic primary.
Stevens, a first-time candidate who argued in April that he could “work down the middle” if elected, joins former CVS executive Helena Foulkes in trying to deny renomination to McKee. Another Democrat, state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi, is also still considering whether to run.
SD-Gov
South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden has a “special announcement” scheduled for Tuesday that the Dakota Scout reports will mark his entry into the June Republican primary.
Rhoden, who was elevated from the lieutenant governor’s office in January after Kristi Noem resigned to join Donald Trump’s cabinet, will be in for a difficult contest to keep his new job.
A poll conducted last month by Mason-Dixon gave Rep. Dusty Johnson, who represents the entire state in the U.S. House, a 28-27 edge over the incumbent; wealthy businessman Toby Doeden and state House Speaker Jon Hansen were behind with 15% and 10%, respectively.
WI-Gov
Nonprofit head Joel Brennan, who previously served as Gov. Tony Evers’ secretary of administration, is considering seeking the Democratic nomination to succeed his old boss, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports.
Brennan left the state Cabinet in 2021 to lead the Greater Milwaukee Committee, a prominent local civic organization. He’d join a busy August primary for Wisconsin’s open governorship that already features five other notable candidates.
House
Arkansas
Candidate filing closed in Arkansas on Wednesday for the March 3 primary, and the secretary of state has published a list of contenders. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff on March 31.
There’s not likely to be much to watch in the Natural State on either date, though. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Sen. Tom Cotton, and the state’s four U.S. House members—all Republicans—largely lack any opposition in their primaries. The one exception is Rep. French Hill, who faces one underfunded intraparty opponent in the 2nd Congressional District.
Republicans, who drew up a gerrymander in 2021 to keep control of the once-competitive 2nd District, should also have no trouble holding these offices in the midterms.
CA-01
State Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire announced Thursday that he would challenge Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa, whose 1st District just dramatically transformed from a safely red bastion into a constituency that Kamala Harris would have carried 54-42.
The new candidate, who leads the legislature’s upper chamber, reportedly played a key role in making sure the new version of this Northern California constituency looks the way it does.
KCRA reported in August that McGuire, who represents Mendocino County and other parts of the North Coast region, ensured the 1st was redrawn “specifically for him in exchange for his support of the redistricting plan.” Two different spokespeople did not respond when the station asked for comment.
McGuire begins his new effort with endorsements from Sen. Adam Schiff and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi. Also in his corner are Reps. Jared Huffman and Mike Thompson, who each currently represent about a quarter of the new 1st.
McGuire, though, isn’t the only Democrat competing in the June top-two primary. Audrey Denney, an agriculture consultant who challenged LaMalfa in 2018 and 2020, is positioning herself as an alternative to the well-connected Senate leader. Denney’s campaign told the Press Democrat just ahead of McGuire’s entry that voters “are making it clear that they aren’t looking for career politicians.”
CA-43
Rep. Maxine Waters, 87, tells Punchbowl News she remains determined to stay in the House and regain her old spot as chair of the Financial Services Committee if Democrats retake the chamber.
Waters, who has represented a safely blue seat in the Los Angeles area since 1991, also hinted that the 19th term she’s seeking wouldn’t be her last. She instead informed Punchbowl that she wants to serve as committee chair “for a lot more time.”
ME-02
Democratic state Sen. Joe Baldacci tells the Portland Press Herald that he’s interested in running for Maine’s open 2nd District, but only if former state Senate President Troy Jackson doesn’t go for it.
Baldacci separately informed the Bangor Daily News that he believes Jackson, who is one of several Democrats running for governor, remains “full speed ahead on” his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills.
“He’s invested about a year into it already,” Baldacci said. “I don’t get the sense from him that he’s going to change races anytime soon.”
Baldacci is the younger brother of John Baldacci, who represented the 2nd District for eight years before being elected governor in 2002. Joe Baldacci campaigned for his brother’s old House seat in 2016 but dropped out well before the primary after he struggled to raise money.
Jackson, who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for the 2nd District in 2014, did not rule out another try after Rep. Jared Golden abruptly ended his reelection campaign last week.
NJ-11
Outgoing Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way will run in the upcoming special election for Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s 11th Congressional District, the New Jersey Globe reports. Way, who also serves as secretary of state, had shown no obvious interest in entering what’s already a packed Democratic field, leading the Globe to characterize her decision as “unexpected.”
Gov. Phil Murphy chose Way to serve as New Jersey’s top elections official following his election in 2017 (the job is appointed rather than elected), and he turned to her again in 2023 after Lt. Gov. Sheila Oliver died. While there was some speculation that Sherrill could select Way as her running mate, she instead went with Centenary University President Dale Caldwell.
Sherrill, for her part, used her final House speech on Wednesday to announce that she would resign next week, though she hasn’t yet said what day her departure will take effect. The Globe subsequently reported that Murphy will immediately schedule a special election once Sherrill leaves Congress.
NY-12
New York City Councilmember Erik Bottcher announced Thursday that he was joining the busy Democratic primary for New York’s open 12th Congressional District.
CNN reported the same day that George Conway, the former Republican attorney who reinvented himself as a vocal Donald Trump opponent, is also thinking about seeking the Democratic nod. Conway, who is currently a registered independent, did not comment for the story.
While Conway, who is the former husband of Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway, is a newcomer to Democratic politics, Bottcher was a longtime government staffer before joining the Council.
Bottcher began working as the City Council’s LGBTQ community liaison in 2009, and observers interpreted Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s decision to bring him on as an aide in 2011 as a signal that the new governor was determined to make same-sex marriage legal in New York. (Cuomo succeeded, but Bottcher supported Zohran Mamdani over his old boss in the general election for mayor.)
Bottcher, who won his seat on the City Council in 2021, said last month that he was “seriously considering” running to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler. He subsequently announced that he’d raised close to $700,000 in 24 hours for his still-undeclared campaign.
TX-19
Tom Sell, the founder of a prominent agriculture lobbying firm, on Thursday became the first notable candidate to announce a campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington, a fellow Republican.
Sell previously worked as a top aide to then-Rep. Larry Combest, who represented a previous version of the safely red 19th District more than two decades ago. The two are the namesakes of the Washington, D.C.-based firm Combest, Sell & Associates.
TX-23
Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales on Thursday dismissed what he characterized as “rumors” alleging that he had an affair with Regina Santos-Aviles, a staffer who died by suicide in September.
“The rumors are completely untruthful, and Regina’s family has asked for privacy,” Gonzales, who is married, said at an event at the Texas Tribune Festival. When the San Antonio Express-News’ Bayliss Wagner asked the congressman what rumors he was referring to, he responded, “Just in general. I said all rumors in general. Why don’t you reach out to our office.”
The Daily Mail, a British tabloid, wrote last month that Gonzales began an affair with Santos-Aviles in 2021, during his first term in office. The paper also said that a Gonzales spokesperson did not deny the insinuation when asked, saying instead, “To see political bottom feeders distort the circumstances around her passing is truly sickening.”
The San Antonio Currant, though, writes that Gonzales himself had avoided publicly speaking about the allegations concerning him and Santos-Aviles, whom authorities concluded died by self-immolation, until his panel at TribFest. Earlier in the week, the congressman refused to answer questions on the topic from KSAT at a Veterans Day event.
Gonzales faces a rematch in the March 3 Republican primary against Brandon Herrera, a far-right challenger whom the incumbent narrowly defeated last year. Herrera began his new effort for the 23rd District, a sprawling conservative constituency based in West Texas, in August.
Gonzales, though, expressed confidence on Thursday that the story wouldn’t stop him from defeating Herrera again.
“In politics, we call them ‘zombies.’ You knock them down. They come back, and you knock them down again. It’s just part of the deal,” he said. “I’m gonna run, and I’m gonna keep winning.”
UT-01
Former Rep. Ben McAdams on Thursday announced his campaign for Utah’s revamped 1st District, a heavily Democratic constituency based around Salt Lake City.
“I haven’t changed. People know that I’ll work with anyone to get results,” McAdams, who was an outspoken centrist during his sole term from 2019 to 2021, told the Deseret News. “People have seen me as a problem solver that has solved problems in so many communities that are in this district.”
But the former congressman, who flipped the conservative 4th District in 2018 two maps ago, still argued that he would stand up to his party’s common enemy.
“I would say Donald Trump, I think, has taken our democracy and taken our Constitution and trampled all over it,” he told the paper. “And I don’t see a lot of leaders stepping up in Washington to do anything about it.”
McAdams entered the race one day after state Sen. Kathleen Riebe became the first major Democrat to enter the race. While Riebe has also characterized herself as a moderate in the past, she began her campaign by denouncing Trump and his allies, as well as Democrats who accepted the deal to end the government shutdown.
Other Races
TX-LG
Texas Democrats got some unwelcome news on Thursday when Mike Collier, who was the party’s nominee for lieutenant governor in 2018 and 2022, announced he would run as an independent next year. In May, Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin launched her campaign to unseat incumbent Dan Patrick, a three-term Republican who holds one of the state’s most powerful posts.
Poll Pile
NC-Sen: Harper Polling (R) for the Carolina Journal: Roy Cooper (D): 47, Michael Whatley (R): 39. (Sept.: 46-42 Cooper.)
TX-AG (R): Pulse Decision Science (R) for Chip Roy: Chip Roy: 40, Joan Huffman: 13, Mayes Middleton: 13, Aaron Reitz: 7.
Correction: This Digest incorrectly identified Joel Brennan as Wisconsin’s former secretary of agriculture. Brennan served as secretary of administration.
Auntie Maxine needs to go (CA 43). She says she wants to serve several more terms on the financial services committee at 87?
Part of the reason that during the subprime real estate meltdown that bankers got rich and regular people got screwed sat in the lap of Maxine Waters who was too in bed with the financial institutions.
When we get power back, we need people in these oversight committees who actually hold institutions accountable. We've got a lot of work to do cleaning up a mess, and we need overseers with spine.
Indiana won't redistrict! (for now)
https://x.com/nkellyIN/status/1989416985419997232