Morning Digest: Utah will soon host its first contested Democratic primary for a blue House seat
Moderate Democrats are starting to refashion themselves as more pugnacious
Leading Off
UT-01
State Sen. Kathleen Riebe on Wednesday became the first major Democrat to launch a campaign for Utah’s revamped 1st Congressional District—an announcement that came one day before former Rep. Ben McAdams was reportedly planning to kick off his own comeback effort.
Riebe and McAdams’ entries will set off something that no Utah Democrat has seen in modern times: a competitive primary for a solidly blue congressional seat.
McAdams, who previously served in the state Senate and as mayor of Salt Lake County, won his sole term in the House in 2018 by unseating Republican Rep. Mia Love in what was then numbered the 4th District. Riebe, for her part, was also elected to the legislature that same year by defeating a GOP incumbent.
But while McAdams and Riebe have both touted themselves as moderates in the past, Riebe argues she’d go further in confronting Republicans.
“We’re very different people,” she told the Salt Lake Tribune. “I think that I am somebody who is definitely more comfortable speaking up and being against things and being the lone vote no.”
Riebe, who also works as an educator, used her announcement to denounce Republicans in the nation’s capital as well as Democrats who she says haven’t gone far enough to stand up to them.
“Republicans promised to bring prices down, but instead costs have gone up with Trump’s reckless tariffs, and Republicans have slashed health care—all to give tax breaks to billionaires,” she said in a statement.
“That’s why I was so frustrated to see Democrats in Washington take a deal that didn’t do anything to extend the much-needed Affordable Care Act tax subsidies that working families need to help them get by.”
That sort of message is quite different from what Utah voters are used to hearing from Democratic candidates for Congress. Riebe herself adopted a more bipartisan approach during her unsuccessful 2023 campaign for the 2nd District, saying, “Coming to a very rational decision and having very moderate ideas, I think that is what serves us best.”
Democrats, however, had good reason to campaign as committed centrists if they wanted any chance to represent the state in Washington, D.C.
Utah, which last gave its electoral votes to a Democrat during Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide, has long been one of the most Republican states in the nation and hasn’t been represented by a Democrat in the Senate since Frank Moss left office following his 1976 loss to Republican Orrin Hatch.
While a handful of Democrats would continue to represent the state in the House during the ensuing decades, just two have served in the lower chamber during the 21st century: Jim Matheson and McAdams himself.
Matheson, who was first elected in 2000, held on to conservative turf for seven terms by establishing himself as an ardent moderate. McAdams adopted that same approach during and after his successful campaign to defeat Love, who had been elected in 2014 after Matheson opted to retire.
McAdams had opposed several anti-abortion bills promoted by the GOP legislature, but he was careful not to let Love portray him as a supporter of abortion rights. He responded to her insinuations that he wanted to use taxpayer money to finance “unrestricted abortion” by tweeting, “As an active Mormon, I find this attack offensive & not the way we do things in Utah.”
Those comments came after McAdams told a conservative Salt Lake Tribune columnist that he did not support abortion rights as a matter of his faith but believed the choice should be left to women.
“I support the teachings of my LDS faith that oppose abortion except in cases of rape, incest, danger to the mother’s life and in certain other rare circumstances, after seeking spiritual guidance through prayer and from trusted counsel,” he said. “Other religions have other teachings on this subject.”
“Ultimately, decisions about terminating a pregnancy should [be] made by a woman in consultation with her physician, family members and faith counselors she trusts,” he added. (During his lone term in Congress, McAdams compiled an 80% rating from Planned Parenthood.)
McAdams pledged during that race not to vote to return Nancy Pelosi to the speaker’s chair, a promise he kept after his victory. He also proposed a constitutional amendment to require a balanced federal budget, an idea that has far more support among Republicans than Democrats.
But while McAdams’ positioning helped him run well ahead of Joe Biden’s 52-43 deficit against Trump in the 4th District, he still narrowly lost to Republican Burgess Owens 48-47.
The GOP-dominated legislature soon passed a new congressional map that made the 4th safely red while keeping the state’s other three House districts in Republican hands. Riebe tried to break that Republican lock in 2023 when she ran in a special election for the conservative 2nd District, but no one was surprised when she lost to Republican Celeste Maloy in a 57-34 landslide.
But the state’s new congressional map, which replaces the old GOP gerrymander, leaves Riebe and McAdams with a very different constituency to run for. Kamala Harris would have carried the new 1st 60-37, which suddenly makes the June 23 Democratic primary the big race to watch.
They may not be the only Democrats who enter the race, though. State Sen. Nate Blouin has expressed interest in running, and other Democrats from around Salt Lake City could be enticed by this rare opportunity.
David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot. Putting together the Morning Digest each day takes a massive amount of work—and resources! If you’re able to help sustain us by upgrading to a paid subscription, we’d be deeply grateful if you’d consider doing so.
The Downballot Podcast
The inside scoop on The Downballot’s new polling
How should Democrats capitalize on their massive success at the ballot box last week as they seek to retake Congress next year? This week on The Downballot podcast, we’re talking with John Ray, senior director of polling at YouGov Blue, about a fascinating polling experiment our two organizations ran that points a way forward: make the midterms a referendum on the GOP. Ray dives deep into the new data to explain why—and homes in on one especially compelling finding about the most persuadable voters.
Also joining is political scientist Chris Galdieri, a professor at St. Anselm College and expert on the unusually volatile politics of swingy New Hampshire. Galdieri previews the state’s open Senate race and handicaps the suddenly feisty GOP primary. He also explores the fallout from Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s key role in ending the federal government shutdown—including how it might impact her own daughter’s House bid. And he answers the question, just how dead is the GOP’s push for mid-decade redistricting?
The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!
Election Recaps
Seattle, WA Mayor
Progressive organizer Katie Wilson has unseated Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell, the Seattle Times and KING 5 both projected on Wednesday evening.
Wilson, who ran to Harrell’s left in the all-Democratic contest, portrayed the incumbent as the embodiment of a failing status quo. Her victory makes Harrell the latest in a long string of one-term mayors in Seattle: No mayor has secured reelection since Greg Nickels won his second term in 2005, though voters rejected his campaign for a third term four years later.
While Harrell held a 54-46 lead on election day, his advantage diminished—before disappearing entirely— as more votes were tabulated over the following week. Wilson now holds a 50.2 to 49.5 edge, a margin of 1,976 votes.
The Seattle Times estimates there are at most 1,320 ballots left to be counted, which makes it “mathematically impossible” for Harrell to prevail. An automatic recount would be triggered if the margin between the candidates is fewer than 2,000 votes and the spread between the candidates is within 0.5%, but Wilson’s 0.7% advantage currently places her just outside that window.
Harrell, who has not conceded, has a speech scheduled for Thursday.
Redistricting Roundup
FL Redistricting
Despite announcing the creation of a special committee on redistricting three months ago, Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez told Politico this week that there’s “no plan on redistricting right now.”
“We’re not there yet. We haven’t had that discussion yet,” Perez said at a GOP gala on Tuesday evening. “Right now we’re focusing on session, the members, bills, the budget, making sure we’re fiscal conservatives. Redistricting hasn’t been a conversation that we’ve had yet.”
Last month, Perez’s counterpart in the upper chamber, Senate President Ben Albritton, was similarly noncommittal, telling Politico, “We’re just observing at this point.”
Senate
KY-Sen
Dale Romans, a prominent horse trainer whose steeds have won more than $126 million at the track, announced Wednesday that he would run as a Democrat for Kentucky’s open U.S. Senate seat.
Romans, who is pitching himself as a moderate, is one of several Democrats who are hoping to succeed retiring incumbent Mitch McConnell in this dark-red state. The expensive and nasty GOP primary, though, has attracted considerably more attention.
TX-Sen
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who’s been weighing a Senate bid, now says she won’t announce a decision until the Dec. 8 candidate filing deadline.
Governors
NM-Gov
Wealthy businessman Duke Rodriguez, who has sent mixed signals about his interest in seeking the GOP nod for New Mexico’s open governorship, now tells the Santa Fe New Mexican that he’s “95% certain” to run, in the words of columnist Milan Simonich.
Rodriguez adds that he plans to announce later this month and says he could spend up to $2 million of his own money on his campaign.
House
AZ-07
Seven weeks and one day after winning a special election to replace her late father, Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva was finally sworn into Congress.
Immediately upon being seated, Grijalva signed on to a parliamentary tool known as a discharge petition that will force a vote on a bill mandating the release of files related to the federal government’s investigation of convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Her signature was the 218th and final one needed.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has long opposed holding a vote on the release of the Epstein files, leading to widespread accusations that he had delayed Grijalva’s swearing-in to keep her name off the petition and thus forestall any vote. In three previous special elections this year, the winners were all seated the following day.
(Johnson had claimed he would not swear in Grijalva because the House was out of session due to the government shutdown, but it was Johnson himself who sent the House into a prolonged recess.)
A last-minute pressure campaign to convince one of the Republican signatories to withdraw their name from the petition was unsuccessful. (That group includes Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Nancy Mace, as well as its sponsor, Thomas Massie.)
It’s not clear when a vote on the Epstein files will take place, though the soonest would be early next month. Should such a vote succeed, the matter would then be referred to the Senate, where Republicans are likely to stymie it. Even if the bill were to pass both chambers, though, Donald Trump would be able to veto it.
Democrats’ aim in forcing the issue, rather, is to put House Republicans in the awkward position of choosing between protecting Trump and pleasing their base, which has long demanded greater transparency on the Epstein investigation.
CA-18
Democratic Rep. Zoe Lofgren said Wednesday that she would seek a 17th term despite speculation that she might retire.
“Now is not the time to give up,” Lofgren, 77, said in a statement to Politico.
The congresswoman has had no trouble winning reelection to her San Jose-based seat ever since she secured the Democratic nomination in a 1994 upset. (California instituted the current top-two primary system almost two decades later.) Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas seems poised to run whenever Lofgren decides to call it a career, but there’s no indication any notable Democrats are interested in opposing her now.
Lofgren’s safely blue 18th District, which extends south to areas Rivas serves in the Salinas Valley, barely changed even though mapmakers could have shifted several Democratic-leaning areas to the 22nd to further weaken GOP Rep. David Valadao.
MA-04
Bristol County Sheriff Paul Heroux isn’t ruling out challenging Rep. Jake Auchincloss in the September Democratic primary for Massachusetts’ 4th District, though he acknowledged that the congressman’s $6.5 million war chest would make such an undertaking difficult.
WPRI’s Ted Nesi contacted Heroux after learning of an unreleased poll testing such a matchup, but the sheriff did not say whether he had paid for the survey. He did, however, say that he’d received “kind of off the cuff” encouragement from people unhappy with Auchincloss’ support for Israel.
Heroux, however, suggested he’d only be interested in such a difficult campaign “if somebody came to me and said, ‘Paul, I’ve got $2 million, $3 million for you.’” He added that at present, “I don’t have $2 million or $3 million.”
Former Brookline Select Board member Jesse Mermell, who narrowly lost a packed 2020 primary to Auchincloss, was also tested in the same poll, but she doesn’t sound likely to pursue a rematch.
“While I continue to be drawn to public service and would welcome the right moment to fight for working families in that capacity again, I haven’t done any polling and have no current plans to be a candidate in 2026,” she told Nesi.
Auchincloss currently faces intraparty opposition from Jason Poulos, an AI researcher who began running earlier this week. The 4th District, which extends north from Heroux’s Bristol County into Boston’s western suburbs, favored Kamala Harris 59-39.
ME-02, ME-Sen
Former congressional staffer Jordan Wood announced Wednesday that he would enter the Democratic primary for Maine’s open 2nd District rather than continue his long-shot campaign for U.S. Senate.
Wood, who previously served as chief of staff to then-Rep. Katie Porter of California and as an official at the prominent liberal organization End Citizens United, switched races a week after Rep. Jared Golden stunned fellow Democrats by ending his reelection effort.
But while national Democrats have been eagerly looking for an alternative to state Auditor Matt Dunlap, who had been challenging Golden for renomination, Wood may struggle to convince skeptics that he can defend the conservative 2nd District.
Wood spent several months as the only Democrat of note running against Republican Sen. Susan Collins, but he failed to impress either national party leaders or voters. A University of New Hampshire poll conducted last month showed Wood notching a negligible 1% of the vote as Marine veteran Graham Platner outpaced Gov. Janet Mills 58-24.
Wood also drew attention for defending Mothership Strategies, a Democratic fundraising firm run by his husband that for years has been accused of misleading and unethical practices.
“These tactics are used by all campaigns,” the candidate told journalist Jonathan Larsen. “There are many digital firms that have the same models. Maybe they have not been as successful in scale as my husband’s company.”
But Wood, who says he isn’t using Mothership because of a “firewall” between his political and personal lives, does have one asset left from his Senate bid: He ended September with over $900,000 in his campaign account that he can transfer to his new effort.
Whoever wins the June Democratic primary will face a tough battle against former Gov. Paul LePage, who has no serious opposition for the Republican nod.
NJ-09
Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh will seek reelection rather than challenge Rep. Nellie Pou in next year’s Democratic primary, reports the New Jersey Globe.
Over the summer, Sayegh floated the possibility of a congressional run while also acknowledging that he was still raising money to run for a third term as mayor. Paterson will hold municipal elections in May, the month before New Jersey holds primaries for federal office.
Last year, Sayegh expressed interest in replacing Rep. Bill Pascrell in the 9th District following his death but pulled his name from consideration after it became clear party leaders would tap Pou.
NY-17
Nonprofit head Jessica Reinmann, who was the first Democrat to launch a bid against Republican Rep. Mike Lawler earlier this year, has dropped out and given her backing to former National Security Council official Cait Conley.
Conley has led the Democratic field in fundraising so far, but she still faces a host of opponents, with Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson the most prominent among them.
NY-12
Jack Schlossberg, a 32-year-old writer who is the only grandson of John F. Kennedy, announced Tuesday that he was entering the packed Democratic primary for the seat in Congress that Rep. Jerry Nadler is leaving behind.
Schlossberg, who worked as a correspondent for Vogue during last year’s presidential primary, highlighted his large social media following to make the case that he should succeed the veteran congressman.
The candidate, who is the son of Caroline Kennedy and Ed Schlossberg, argued to the New York Times that “we need to specifically elect people who both get policy and know how to break through in new media, because it’s a toxic, polluted ecosystem, thanks to the president.”
One vote he can’t count on, though, is Nadler’s. The incumbent told CNN in September, “Well, there’s nothing particularly good or bad about a Kennedy holding my seat. But the Kennedy, unlike Schlossberg, should be something with a record of public service, a record of public accomplishment, and he doesn’t have one.”
Schlossberg’s fluency with social media, however, could come with a downside, as he has a history of online commentary that may be off-putting to some voters. One representative tweet was posted to his account on Inauguration Day earlier this year:
Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis is Schlossberg’s grandmother.
NY-15
Dalourny Nemorin, a public defender and local community board member, announced Wednesday that she would oppose Rep. Ritchie Torres in the June Democratic primary.
Nemorin, who is active in the local branch of the Democratic Socialists of America, entered the race the week after former Assemblymember Michael Blake launched his own campaign to deny Torres renomination in New York’s safely blue 15th District. The presence of both challengers on next year’s ballot could make it easier for Torres to secure renomination, since he might need to win only a plurality rather than a majority.
TX-02
Rep. Dan Crenshaw has publicized an internal poll showing him far ahead of state Rep. Steve Toth in the March 3 Republican primary but still a few points short of the majority he’d need to avert a runoff in May.
Meeting Street Research finds Crenshaw leading Toth 47-19, with four other candidates each taking 2% or less. This is the first survey anyone has released of the nomination contest for Texas’ 2nd District, a safely red constituency in the northern Houston area.
Toth, a hardliner who unsuccessfully opposed then-Rep. Kevin Brady in the 2016 primary for the old 8th District, launched his new campaign in July by arguing that Crenshaw has strayed from MAGA orthodoxy.
Toth specifically faulted the incumbent for voting to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s unprovoked invasion and his 2023 comments likening Republicans who wanted to keep Kevin McCarthy out of the speaker’s chair to “terrorists.”
TX-19
Lubbock County Commissioner Jason Corley on Wednesday announced the creation of what he characterized as “an exploratory committee to assess the level of public support for a campaign” to replace Rep. Jodey Arrington, a fellow Republican who startled everyone the previous day by declining to seek reelection.
Corley and other West Texas Republicans, though, will have only a few weeks to assess their chances of winning the nomination for the dark red 19th District ahead of the state’s Dec. 8 candidate filing deadline.
Some would-be candidates, however, have an incentive to keep quiet for a bit longer. Lubbock County Republican Party Chairman David Bruegel notes to Lubbock Lights that the state’s resign-to-run law would force many elected officials out of their current posts when they announce.
Bruegel mentioned several possible Republicans as potential candidates, but most of them haven’t revealed anything about their interest.
One exception is state Rep. Carl Tepper, who said he’s “evaluating” the race. Lubbock Mayor Mark McBrayer, however, said he was content to remain where he is.
The 19th District last hosted an open-seat race a decade ago when Arrington, who had served as an aide to George W. Bush and as a Texas Tech vice chancellor, was one of nine Republicans who competed to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Randy Neugebauer.
Arrington trailed Glen Robertson, who preceded McBrayer as mayor of Lubbock, in the first round of the primary, but the packed field made it all but impossible for anyone to win the majority needed to avert a runoff. The state GOP establishment, including Bush and former Gov. Rick Perry, rallied behind Arrington, and he won the second round 54-46 ahead of an easy general election.
Arrington, who quickly became entrenched, rose to become chair of the powerful House Budget Committee in 2023 at the start of his fourth term. At just 53, he seemed to be set for a long career in the House before this week, and Donald Trump even endorsed him days before he announced he’d retire.
VA-02
Shortly after former Rep. Elaine Luria launched her bid to reclaim Virginia’s 2nd District, Marine veteran Michael Williamson announced he was quitting the race and endorsing the ex-congresswoman’s comeback bid.
Luria still faces several other opponents in the Democratic primary, but her stature makes her the favorite to take on sophomore GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans next year.
Poll Pile
NY-Gov: J.L. Partners: Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 46, Elise Stefanik (R): 43; Hochul (D-inc): 47, Blakeman (R): 36. Republican primary: Stefanik: 74, Blakeman: 5. (Stefanik is running while Blakeman is still considering.)
Editor’s Note: In the previous Morning Digest, we included a poll of Arizona’s 1st District that we incorrectly believed to be an initial ballot poll. It was an informed ballot poll. The Downballot’s policy is not to publish informed ballot polls unless they also include initial ballot data, which this survey did not. We regret the error
I love Jasmine Crockett but if she faced Cornyn or Paxton in a general election next year, she'd get creamed. She would be a fantastic AG or bide her time for 2030 to challenge Ted Cruz.
Democrat Maureen Rowan has won her race for the State Assembly in the 2nd legislative district, ousting two-term Republican incumbent Claire Swift (R-Margate).
Rowan unseated Swift by 842 votes, 39,444 to 38,601, in the fifth lower house pickup for Democrats
https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/democrat-maureen-rowan-ousts-gop-lawmaker-in-atlantic-county-district/
Democrats will have a 57-23 majority in the Assembly.