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DM's avatar

https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article312890597.html

Dana Williamson, former chief of staff to Gavin Newsom, has been indicted along with several others in an alleged scheme to steal dormant funds in Xavier Becerra's congressional campaign account.

We can't have public corruption, but call me sceptical that the feds come up with a scandal touching Newsom and Becerra's offices just after the big win on Prop 50.

Neither Newsom or Becerra are directly involved in this alleged malfeasance.

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Kildere53's avatar

Chesterfield has posted its provisionals! They went 1288-296 for Spanberger, which is a margin of 81-19. And 456 of those Spanberger votes came from just one precinct - Ettrick, which is home to Virginia State University, an HBCU. (Sears got only 4 provisional votes here.)

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Kildere53's avatar

This means that, also including Arlington's provisionals which were posted yesterday evening, Jones's margin of victory is now up to 6.47 percent. And there are still some heavily Democratic places that haven't reported their provisionals yet, including Alexandria, Richmond, Charlottesville, and Norfolk. So Jones's margin could definitely get up above 6.5 percent when all is said and done.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Based on what you are saying, Spanberger, could really expand on her margin in Alexandria, which is close to Arlington.

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Ethan (KingofSpades)'s avatar

Oh, it's that one deep blue district outside of Petersburg.

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Stargate77's avatar

That precinct is the reason why Mike Cherry’s state House district is a single digit R district rather than a double digit R district.

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MPC's avatar

I love Jasmine Crockett but if she faced Cornyn or Paxton in a general election next year, she'd get creamed. She would be a fantastic AG or bide her time for 2030 to challenge Ted Cruz.

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bpfish's avatar

I don't know that she's meant for a statewide run in Texas. We need her voice, and for that to happen, she needs a race she can win. Love her, but if she enters the primary, you can just take Texas off the board entirely.

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MPC's avatar

Yeah. I hope Talarico gains traction and becomes the favorite to win the Democratic primary.

If the 11/4/25 shellacking in VA/NJ/PA is any indication, she could have a better than 50-50 chance of keeping her House seat.

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Zero Cool's avatar

I’m not convinced Crockett will gain much traction in the Senate race considering Allred and Talarico are already in it.

What would her appeal be statewide outside of her own House district?

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bpfish's avatar

She has pretty high name recognition nationally, including across Texas, due to her outspoken pushback against the Trump regime. A recent poll indicates she would start as the front-runner in the primary. Allred and Talarico would likely spend a lot of energy trying to take her with electability arguments. She polls roughly the same as the others against the various GOP candidates, but that could change as the general election heats up.

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Morgan Whitacre's avatar

She polls the same as the others in a general? Where are those polls? I don’t think I’ve seen them.

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Mark's avatar

Ugh. What was the poll showing Crockett would start out as the frontrunner?

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bpfish's avatar

Several polls listed here: https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/texas

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methis's avatar

She is indeed one of the lectern-pounders in the House, along with the rest of the squad, constantly producing clips, tiktoks and soundbites, which has juiced her fundraising and elevated her profile. I think there is a real limit to why that does/should make you a good candidate for statewide office, especially in a place like texas.

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Zero Cool's avatar

But we’ve also seen AOC and the squad capitalize on things a similar way as Jasmine Crockett and they have not chosen to run for the Senate.

Not arguing Crockett’s intentions aren’t noble but I am not sure she’s exactly thinking everything through in her Senate run.

Then again, she represents a deep blue district so she has nothing to lose with a Senate primary run.

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Zero Cool's avatar

High name recognition and attention is one thing.

But ability for appealing to crossover and Independent voters? That’s in my view questionable.

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anonymouse's avatar

I’m shocked she’s leaving the House before hitting the pension. Or was she drawn out?

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michaelflutist's avatar

She hasn't said she's leaving the House, right?

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D S's avatar

She was sort of drawn out - her district didn't change that much, but she now lives slightly outside of it. I don't think anyone would give her trouble over running for a seat she represents most of and just barely lives outside of it, but what do I know.

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Zero Cool's avatar

As I’ve said in previous discussions, I think Jasmine Crockett has a future in being a leader in the House.

But I am concerned she gets distracted from things like jumping into a Senate race where she is not assured to win. James Talarico on the other hand has wider appeal and a massive following that makes it hard for Crockett to overcome.

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michaelflutist's avatar

"Not assured to win." That's one way of putting it...

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Zero Cool's avatar

Well, we have to see how Crockett’s campaign unfolds. I am not going to make any premature judgements of what she does with it until she’s had a chance to run her campaign.

But there’s reasons why Allred and Talarico have broader appeal.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Of course, all 3 are likely to start as underdogs.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Yeah, knowing the history of elections statewide in Texas, all are by default underdogs.

But this is going to make the primary race all the more interesting to watch. I recall back in 2014 there were multiple Democratic candidates but they had considerably less high profile recognition.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I don't remember that race offhand, but that was a horrible year for Democrats.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Honestly, announcing that you're not going to decide until filing day feels like she's going to pass.

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Mark's avatar

Hope you're right.

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sacman701's avatar

I don't think Crockett could win a statewide race in any state to the right of Minnesota. (Keith Ellison has been reelected there.)

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silverknyaz's avatar

really feels like a lot of people are a bit too quick to cosign "the loud black woman can't possibly win Texas" as a proposition.

We don't really know for sure how the race will unfold. I'm not going to rule anything out, though I will say Crockett, having waited until the last month of the year to make a decision, is currently being outrun on the ground and in fundraising by both candidates currently in the field - makes a primary win harder.

The general is another matter entirely.

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alienalias's avatar

Is there any chatter in ME about redistricting ME-02 in 2028 (post-Mills)? Feels like a state with little appetite and they have fairly narrow majorities in each chamber right now, but I'd rather not see it get entrenched nutjobs while we wait for national fair maps legislation.

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Kildere53's avatar

Unfortunately Maine requires 2/3 majorities in the state legislature to pass redistricting plans. And while Democrats will probably gain seats next year, there are enough rural Republican districts to make winning a 2/3 majority a very heavy lift.

And even if LePage wins next year, I doubt he ever gets entrenched - he simply has too much baggage for that.

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alienalias's avatar

I mean more post-LePage (like an Austin Theriault). I'm frankly not positive LePage has the health to serve much more than a term or two.

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stevk's avatar

Any possibility to remove that rule and revert to a simple majority to pass new maps? Put another way, could a simple majority vote overturn the 2/3 requirement?

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Kildere53's avatar

That's a great question! Unfortunately I don't know the answer.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

The 2/3 requirement is built into Maine's constitution.

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alienalias's avatar

Texas has a statewide Railroad Commission (its an oil/gas regulator) with three members who serve staggered 6yr terms. This nutjob who serves as the Repub party chair in Tarrant County is announcing he's running for the open seat to... "stop the Islamic invasion."

https://x.com/BoFrenchTX/status/1988622952619803011?s=20

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/10/31/texas-tarrant-county-republican-chair-social-media-bo-french/

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Techno00's avatar

They have nothing else to run on anymore but hatred. I mean, do you really think the GOP can talk about the economy, for example, anymore after what they did?

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MPC's avatar

If they can't run on the worsening economy, GOP is going right back to anti-trans and anti-Muslim bigotry to rile up their base.

The GOP has their new boogeyman in Mamdani since Pelosi is retiring.

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anonymouse's avatar

Expect the GOP to crank up the racism next year after Mamdani. What else are they going to run on? Intentionally destroying the economy? Pardoning domestic terrorists? Terrorizing brown people?

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michaelflutist's avatar

Your last question: yes, they'll run on that.

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anonymouse's avatar

Can’t wait to see how shocked they are when Dearborn and RGV revert fully back.

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RL Miller's avatar

Mike McGuire will make a fantastic member of Congress. For a while he bragged about being the only Dem to successfully run in rural California. He's also never lost an election in his life. For a while I was encouraging him to run to succeed Mike Thompson when Thompson retires, but Thompson isn't voluntarily retiring, and now that the lines have been redrawn McGuire gets to run in an open seat.

(Edited to add -- it's all over the news, but not yet in the Downballot) McGuire formally kicked off his campaign for Congress in the new and radically redrawn CA-01, currently represented by Rep Doug LaMalfa, today. This seat was drawn for the benefit of a Santa Rosa/ Sonoma County based Democrat. Audrey Denney, whose base is Chico, is still in the race but Sonoma County will provide significantly more votes than Chico/ Butte County. McGuire is currently the Senate Pro tem (leader of the state senate) and is termed out.

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Zack from the SFV's avatar

When McGuire (or Denney) takes over as the Representative from CA-01 that will be a major upgrade from LaMalfa. Huzzah for Prop 50!

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Marcus Graly's avatar

Whenever I see his name I think of Mark McGwire, who played for the Oakland A's.

Also I'm not sure that representing Marin through Del Norte is particularly brag-worthy, since that's reliably blue turf.

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NewYorkTankees's avatar

I would hope somebody serious (not named Cuomo) runs in Nadler's district. This nepo kid seems like a problem.

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bpfish's avatar

With Schlossberg the shit-poster in, and Cuomo and Carolyn Maloney lurking, this could become a real shit-show of a race.

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bpfish's avatar

And now George Conway!

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Zero Cool's avatar

CA-48:

If Ken Calvert and Young Kim are in this race and Darrell Issa jumps in, this could make it a historically competitive GOP race in ways we haven’t seen in a long time. At least in California.

Although Kim has the ability to get the edge over Calvert, Issa’s fundraising abilities, eloquence in speaking about the GOP agenda (plenty of which is BS to begin with) and knack for effective campaigning could dwarf what Kim would have in her campaign.

I’d say Kim should be more concerned about Issa being in the race than Calvert.

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methis's avatar

I really need Issa, the fucking car thief, to stop ascending

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AnthonySF's avatar

More of a lateral move. Ascending into Riverside County?

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AnthonySF's avatar

It would be hilarious if all 3 jump in and 2 Dems sneak into the runoff somehow

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Zero Cool's avatar

That would be interesting!

And if Issa loses in the primary, it would be gold. He almost lost re-election back in 2016.

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

I would not vote for any Kennedy for any office (up to and including dog catcher). The whole "Camelot mystique" garbage is part and parcel to how we got to...all this.

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FeingoldFan's avatar

Are you just talking about RFK Jr.? I’m not sure how the Kennedys led to Trump getting elected outside of that.

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Also referring to Jack Schlossberg, who is JFK's grandson and running for NY-12

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FeingoldFan's avatar

How did Schlossberg lead to Trump getting elected?

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

ask Wolfpack? I was just saying that they were referring to the Kennedys including Schlossberg

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JanusIanitos's avatar

I suspect the thinking there is the Kennedy family getting favored because of their last name was a bit of a precursor to a personality cult, which is what MAGA has become. Not sure I'd agree with that assessment but I can see the logic. Or I could be wrong and Wolfpack might have meant something else entirely.

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

Yeah, that is pretty much it. Analagous to raising a child to believe his or her "poo" doesn't stink. Usually leads to rotten results.

"No Kings" should also imply "no royal families" in America.

The line, to me, can be drawn from Camelot to the Kardashians to the Trumps. Not saying 1:1 causation, but I think a material contributor.

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michaelflutist's avatar

There have been various such wealthy political families, including the Rockefellers and Danforths. At least the Kennedys and those two have been motivated by a kind of sense of noblesse oblige. I don't think the Begiches are extremely rich, are they? Anyway, your viewpoint is well taken, but I wouldn't automatically disqualify someone from a political family when considering who to vote for.

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Zero Cool's avatar

I don’t automatically disqualify any Kennedy or another member of any dynasty running for political office. My main concern is if they can stand on their own merit.

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FeingoldFan's avatar

I don’t think I see that line - political dynasties are far older than the Kennedys, just look at the Roosevelts or even further back to John Quincy Adams. Every country has political dynasties, it’s just how it is, regardless of whether it’s how it should be.

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Paleo's avatar

NJ 11

Lt. Governor Tahesha Way is expected to join the race for Mikie Sherrill’s congressional seat in New Jersey’s 11th district, adding a major contender to an already crowded Democratic field in a primary expected to be held in late January or early February.

Her unexpected entrance into the race for Congress puts her in the top tier of a field of Democrats that includes Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill and former Rep. Tom Malinowski.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/tahesha-way-will-seek-sherrill-congressional-seat/

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Julius Zinn's avatar

I read a few months ago that AG Matt Platkin and former Sen. George Helmy are considering too

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Techno00's avatar

Thoughts on Platkin? I heard the machine does not like him because he went after them for corruption and they claimed it was “politically motivated” — points in his favor in my opinion. Anything I’m missing?

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alienalias's avatar

Malinowski v Way v Platkin v Helmy would be a wild group lol

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Guy Cohen's avatar

Don't forget Gill.

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D S's avatar

My guess is that this goes about as well as Sabina Matos' run for Congress in 2023, if possibly worse, as Gill has the institutional backing, as Way last held directly elected office in 2010.

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Yvette's avatar

A little shocked to hear so many people express disdain for Jack Schlossberg's candidacy.

I get the skepticism with 'family dynasties' and such, but with one glaring exception, by and large the Kennedy family has done phenomenal public service and philanthropy over the years. You can point to specific instances where the family name was used to get privilege, but more or less the are not worse than anyone else.

No one is complaining about there being 1,000 Beigiches in Alaska or anything. LOL.

I think Schlossberg deserves a fair look. The House by design does not require people running for it to have high 'political qualifications'.

Hell, Ohio last year chose a literal used car salesman over Sherrod Brown as their Senator.

Frankly I think more distasteful than running on family connections are politicians like Pelosi, Homer, or Nadler handpicking 'successors' as if voters aren't capable of making their own choice.

To be fair, Schlossberg's social media presence is far too unserious. But if he runs a serious campaign and aligns himself as a progressive to fit the district as he seems to be doing thus far, we should be unbiased against his family pedigree.

Besides, he may manly leverage the family name to attack another member of the family -RFK- anyway.

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Alex Hupp's avatar

https://jackfornewyork.com/12-for-12/ I'm sorry but this is the most unserious platform I've ever read from a major candidate

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michaelflutist's avatar

Yeah, no substantive information on how he plans to address issues at all.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

I can only speak for myself, but I do not like dynasties. I will not automatically discard a candidate for coming from a major political family, but they will have to do more to prove themselves: they are entering politics with a substantial advantage and I expect something more impressive from them to reflect that advantaged starting position. I will not give them a blanket assumption of credibility simply because of their last name or connections. Being a Kennedy does not make someone a better or worse person, more or less dedicated to public service.

Too often they expect to be able to coast off the electorate's fondness for their family elders. That said expectation often works out does not change my personal disdain for it.

If Schlossberg was not related to JFK would his candidacy be given the time of day? I do not believe it would: the only reason his candidacy has any chance is his family. That's enough for me to be disinterested.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I think his candidacy still won't be given the time of day, except from the media, which believe talking about a Kennedy descendant will make money for them.

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Paleo's avatar

He hasn't done anything to warrant serious consideration. Especially since there are candidates in the race who have.

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Yvette's avatar

Conflicting narratives from both campaigns in Maines Senate Dem primary:

Impact Research/EMILYs List poll | 10/22-10/27 LV

Maine Senate

(After balanced information about Platner)

🟥Susan Collins 51%

🟦Graham Platner 42%

Maine Senate

(After additional information about Platner)

🟥Susan Collins 57%

🟦Graham Platner 38%

Generic congressional ballot 2026 (Maine)

🟦Democratic 46%

🟥Republican 37%

Senator Susan Collins approval

Disapprove 54%

Approve 44%

(EMILYs List is supporting Mills in the Senate race)

Maine - Senate Polling:

🔵 Platner: 45%

🔴 Collins: 41%

🔴 Collins: 46%

🔵 Mills: 42%

Maine People's Resource Center / Oct 29, 2025

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

So those last numbers are the initial ballot?

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Alex Hupp's avatar

It's a different pollster, the EMILY's list poll didn't have initial numbers

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brendan fka HoosierD42's avatar

Gotcha, so they're advocating on behalf of their endorsee. Which is fine!

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Burt Kloner's avatar

EL supporting Mills I take it.

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

Huge red flag there.

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ctkosh's avatar

I wish the Emily’s List poll had initial H2H numbers without any informed push poll. And I’m not sure why they didn’t include any matchups with Mills. It’s hard to believe they didn’t test Mills vs Collins and wouldn’t have released those results if they were positive. The Maine People’s Resource poll has dramatically different results for Platner vs Collins.

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AnthonySF's avatar

Yes the poll cannot be taken seriously without Mills numbers or initial numbers ("balanced" and "additional" info don't count)

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stevk's avatar

Agreed. I'm all in for Mills and am terrified of a Platner candidacy but the fact that they didn't have a Collins/Mills matchup for comparison definitely makes me think those results aren't what they would have wanted.

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Marcus Graly's avatar

I put zero weight on "informed ballot" polls. They're not predictive at all, even with supposedly "balanced" information.

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ClimateHawk's avatar

Emily's list did not ask Collins/Mills. That's a tell. The whole point is to create a negative data point for Platner.

Now, that does not mean they are wrong, necessarily. But if you were being legit, you ask Collins/Mills, too. You can always fudge the sample (see, Ras).

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Paleo's avatar

Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania has been hospitalized after a fall near his home, which caused minor injuries to his face.

Fetterman fell to the ground after feeling light-headed, which was due to a ventricular fibrillation flare-up, the statement said. Ventricular fibrillation is a type of irregular heartbeat. Fetterman is remaining at the hospital for observation so doctors can "fine-tune" his medication.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fetterman-hospitalized-over-fall-near-his-pennsylvania-home/

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PollJunkie's avatar

"The most common cause of ventricular fibrillation is a heart attack (myocardial infarction). VF often happens during or shortly after a heart attack."

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MPC's avatar

He should resign for his own health.

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Buckeye73's avatar

He has really never fully recovered from his stroke.

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Techno00's avatar

I wonder if he’ll quit early.

The downside to that being that we’ll have a special election to defend.

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bpfish's avatar

Now is an excellent time for a special election. We would easily replace Fetterman with a reliable Dem.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Yeah, ideally Shapiro could appoint a replacement who could then be elected on Shapiro's coattails in 2026. (Hell, Shapiro's coattails are probably the reason we have Fetterman right now instead of Doctor Fucking Oz.)

But Fetterman *hates* Shapiro, so I don't see that happening.

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homerun1's avatar

"minor injuries to his face" when he hit the ground implies the real possibility of a concussion, which is the last thing a stroke survivor needs... That could account for the extended hospital observation.

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Mr. Rochester's avatar

I agree he should, but I'd be beyond shocked if he actually did.

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Techno00's avatar

Now certainly would be better than 2028, so I guess you’re right.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Probably better. It's a logical thought, but there's no way to really know.

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sacman701's avatar

Oof. They should at least let him telecommute. I'd be shocked if he ran again.

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YouHaveToVoteForOneOfUS's avatar

I’m not against having some level of dynastic politics in the United States—as long as the successive generations actually pay their dues. If the child of a pol puts the work in starting from the ground up, knows what they’re talking about, and generally comport themselves seriously and professionally, then I have no issue with them or voting for them.

The problem, of course, is that a lot of them don’t. They coast on their name and don’t bother learning a thing, expecting it all to be handed to them. Grandson Kennedy here seems genuinely enthusiastic, but hasn’t done a damn thing yet to be qualified for a seat in Congress. So in this case, that’s a no from me dog.

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Burt Kloner's avatar

with the "great" approval #s for Congress these days I suspect many voters might feel that a candidate "does not need to have done a damn thing yet to be qualified for a seat in Congress". There had better be some well qualified candidates or young Mr. Schlossberg will likely win the Dem primary.

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michaelflutist's avatar

There are several very highly qualified candidates running for that seat; don't worry.

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Robert McCormack's avatar

I really wish I had $2-3 million to hand over to Paul Heroux. Was very excited to vote for him over the god-awful Thomas Hodgson and would be ecstatic to see him primary Auchincloss. Mermell is terrific too, I wish she’d take the plunge. She came so close before.

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MPC's avatar

Roy Cooper widens his lead over TACO lapdog Whatley in GOP leaning poll for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.

https://www.carolinajournal.com/cooper-widens-lead-over-whatley-in-new-cj-poll/

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hilltopper's avatar

Cooper 47.3%; Whatley 38.6%.

Generic ballot re state legislature: Dems 47.3%. R’s 43.2%.

600LVs Conducted November 9–10 by Harper Polling for Carolina Journal.

Great to see (but I distrust the precision given by pollsters when they use tenths of a percent when there is a M/E much bigger).

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MPC's avatar

If the polls are correct, ie Roy Cooper winning the Senate seat -- more winnowing of the gerrymandered R majority in the state legislature is a good thing.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Again, it should be reminded:

Roy Cooper won election and re-election as Governor in 2016 and 2020, when Trump was on the ballot.

No wonder he’s polling well!

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