Morning Digest: Democrats land first candidate in race to be Georgia's top elections official

A victory would break a GOP winning streak that goes back to 2006

Former Judge Penny Brown Reynolds, Democratic candidate for Georgia secretary of state (credit: Penny Brown Reynolds Facebook)

Leading Off

GA-SoS

Former Judge Penny Brown Reynolds just became the first notable Democrat to announce a campaign for Georgia secretary of state, pledging in her launch video to protect "our elections from interference and intimidation."

"I will defend every eligible Georgian’s right to vote," says Brown Reynolds, who would be the first Democrat to hold this office in 20 years. "Join me if you believe voting should be a right, not a fight."

Brown Reynolds launched her bid five years after Donald Trump unsuccessfully pressured the man she's hoping to succeed, Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, to "find 11,780 votes" to overturn Joe Biden's 2020 victory in the state.

Raffensperger, who overcame a Trump-backed primary foe in 2022, is now giving up his post for a bid to replace termed-out Gov. Brian Kemp, a fellow Republican who preceded him as secretary of state.

Three serious GOP contenders were already running to become this swing state's chief elections officer: Gabriel Sterling, a former top deputy for Raffensperger; state Rep. Tim Fleming, a former chief of staff to Kemp; and businessman Kelvin King.

Democrats, by contrast, had lacked a viable candidate until now—so much so that the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote that "[s]enior Democrats were getting antsy about landing a well-known contender."

Brown Reynolds, though, is hoping her entry will put them at ease. She entered the race with the support of former Gov. Roy Barnes, who is the last Democrat to have led the state.

Brown Reynolds, who served as a state judge and as Barnes' executive counsel, was also the star of "Family Court with Judge Penny," which was nominated for a Daytime Emmy in 2009 at the end of its lone season on the air. She more recently held a post in the U.S. Department of Agriculture during the Biden administration.

Brown Reynolds would be the first Black person elected secretary of state, and she's also hoping to be the first Democrat to win the post since 2002, when incumbent Cathy Cox won her second and final term. Republican Karen Handel flipped this office four years later after Cox left to unsuccessfully run for governor, and the GOP has held it ever since.

Next year's race is likely to attract outsized attention, especially if Trump and his allies once again try to place a fellow election denier in office.

Sterling gained notice in 2020 for joining Raffensperger in rebutting Trump's lies and defending the state's electoral system, but the two other Republican candidates have been happy to appeal to election conspiracy theorists.

Fleming authored an unsuccessful bill this year that would have banned the state from sharing information with the Electronic Registration Information Center, a multi-state consortium to maintain voter lists that has been at the center of numerous far-right conspiracy theories.

King, for his part, refused to push back on Trump's lies during his failed 2022 Senate bid.

"I think there are a lot of disenchanted voters here in Georgia, a lot of distrust, rightfully so," he told Fox News at the time. "I don’t know what happened in terms of improprieties, but a lot of people in the state feel that way, and they deserve to be heard."

King is also married to Janelle King, a far-right extremist who serves on the state's Election Board and has come into conflict with Raffensperger's office.

Candidate filing closes on March 6, so it may be some time before the field takes final shape for both parties. And thanks to Georgia's love of runoffs, whoever runs could appear on the ballot as many as four times next year.

Party primaries will take place on May 19, but candidates need to win a majority to avoid a June 16 runoff. The general election is set for Nov. 3, but again, contenders must exceed 50% to avert a Dec. 1 runoff. Raffensperger himself went through this four-election gantlet during his first statewide race in 2018, though he was able to win both his primary and general elections outright in 2022.

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Redistricting Roundup

UT Redistricting

Republicans in Utah's legislature have released five proposed congressional maps in response to a judge's order last month that they redraw the lines to comply with an anti-gerrymandering ballot measure passed by voters in 2018.

None of the proposals, however, would take the same approach recommended by the state's redistricting commission, which released three maps in 2021 that would have resulted in a solidly blue district centered around Salt Lake County and three Republican seats.

Instead, as journalist Bryan Schott details at Utah Political Watch, all five GOP maps feature a tossup district in the Salt Lake area. However, thanks to rules that require "minimizing" the number of split cities and counties, every proposal also includes a red-leaning district that could flip to Democrats in a wave year.

Lawmakers must pass a new map by Oct. 6, the deadline set by Judge Dianna Gibson, who is presiding over the legal challenge to Utah's districts.

Election Night

AZ-07

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva is the heavy favorite to win Tuesday's special election to fill the seat previously held by her father, longtime Democratic Rep. Raul Grijalva, until his death earlier this year.

Grijalva, who won the Democratic nomination for Arizona's 7th District in a landslide in July, will face businessman Daniel Butierez, who ran for the GOP last year but lost 63-37. A similar outcome is likely in the special election: According to calculations by The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried this Tucson-based district by a 60-38 margin.

If Grijalva prevails, she'd boost the size of the House Democratic caucus to 214 members, with just one seat—Texas' 18th District—still vacant. Most immediately, she'd be able to add her name to a petition sponsored by Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie to require a vote on the release of files related to the investigation of Jeffrey Epstein.

The petition currently has 217 signatories, including three other Republicans in addition to Massie. (Every Democrat has already signed on.) It needs 218 to force a vote on the House floor, which would come against the wishes of GOP leadership.

Special Elections

Democrat Debra Shigley will face off against Republican Jason Dickerson in a runoff for a conservative state Senate seat north of Atlanta after a first round of voting last month failed to produce a winner.

Shigley, an employment attorney, finished in first place with 40% of the vote in the initial contest for the Alpharetta-based 21st District. Dickerson, who owns an investment firm, edged past the third-place finisher by 67 votes—17.4% to 17.0%.

Shigley, though, was the only Democrat on the ballot, while the half dozen Republicans, including Dickerson, combined for the remaining 60% of the vote. That was still welcome news for Shigley, however: According to calculations from The Downballot, Donald Trump carried the district 67-33 last year.

Republicans control the Georgia Senate 32-23, with just this seat vacant.

Senate

AL-Sen

Former White House aide Morgan Murphy said Monday he would run to succeed Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, a fellow Republican whom he'd previously worked for.

Murphy's entry was largely overshadowed hours later by Bruce Pearl's announcement that he will step down ​​as the coach of Auburn University men's basketball team—but would not enter the GOP primary. Tuberville, a former Auburn football coach who is now running for governor, had advised Pearl to skip the Senate race and instead remain with his school.

But while Murphy's political future was not watched with anything close to the intensity surrounding Pearl, the new candidate has attracted attention before.

Murphy, a Navy veteran and former food critic, served as Tuberville's national security advisor in 2023 when the senator used parliamentary rules to single-handedly prevent his colleagues from confirming any military promotions.

Murphy resigned midway through the 10-month-long blockade after the Washington Post published a lengthy profile titled, "Meet the ex-food writer advising Tommy Tuberville on national security." Politico reported at the time that Tuberville was unhappy with the piece, while Murphy said the paper "simply overstated my role in decision making."

The episode, though, didn't stop Murphy from later becoming chief of public diplomacy for Keith Kellogg, who is Donald Trump's special envoy to Ukraine. Murphy, who stepped down from that role just before announcing his campaign, was also happy to tie himself to Tuberville.

"Others talk, but Coach actually fights for Alabama’s conservative values," Murphy proclaims on his website. "I’m running because we can’t let just any ‘Republican’ take his seat."

Murphy joins Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson, Attorney General Steve Marshall, and Rep. Barry Moore in the May 19 Republican primary. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a June 26 runoff.

KY-Sen, KY-04

Rep. Thomas Massie says he isn't ruling out a late entry into Kentucky's U.S. Senate race, though the iconoclastic Republican still doesn't sound likely to seek a promotion.

"I don’t think I’ve ever ruled it out completely, so I’m not saying there’s any increased likelihood," Massie told the Herald-Leader's Austin Horn on Friday. That statement came five months after he informed that same reporter he was "absolutely" seeking reelection in the 4th Congressional District.

The congressman's new comments came about a week after Politico reported that unnamed "high level Republicans" are trying to convince former Attorney General Daniel Cameron to end his Senate campaign and run against Massie instead. Cameron, though, quickly said he wasn't going anywhere, and Massie suggested he'd only run for the Senate if Cameron were to change his mind and try to claim his House seat.

"I mean, we’ve got until January to decide, and if you polled that race with me, [businessman] Nate Morris and [Rep.] Andy Barr, I’m pretty sure I would be the winner at this point," Massie told Horn. "But it’s kind of a ridiculous proposition that Daniel Cameron would get out of a Senate race that he’s winning."

Governors

MI-Gov

Wealthy Republican businessman Kevin Rinke now says he'll decide on a second bid for governor by Nov. 5, telling the Detroit News he believes political campaigns "should be 12 months or less." Rinke had previously touted a "Big Announcement" set for Aug. 23, but it turned out to be a GOP event he dubbed "The Big Beautiful Delegate Social."

Meanwhile, another rich guy, Perry Johnson, also still sounds interested in pursuing the Republican nod again. Complaining about the frontrunner, Rep. John James, Johnson told the News, "There is no real campaign going on right now. There is no real leader."

Rinke finished in second in the GOP primary in 2022, while Johnson failed to make the ballot because he submitted fraudulent signatures.

MN-Gov

The first public polling of Minnesota's race for governor since Democratic Gov. Tim Walz said he'd seek a third term finds the incumbent with a 5-point edge on his opponent from 2022 but wider leads against other prospective Republican rivals.

The poll, from SurveyUSA for KSTP, gives Walz a 46-41 advantage over former state Sen. Scott Jensen, whom he beat 52-45 three years ago. Walz also sports a 47-40 lead on state Rep. Kristin Robbins and a 50-37 margin over businessman Kendall Qualls.

The survey further finds Walz's job approval score dead even, with 47% approving and the same proportion disapproving of his performance. However, 34% say they strongly disapprove of Walz, while just 20% say they strongly approve.

NJ-Gov

A new internal poll for Republican Jack Ciattarelli finds him leading Democrat Mikie Sherrill 46-45 in the November race for New Jersey's open governorship—the first survey to ever show him ahead.

Election analysts, however, are probably not the intended audience for this poll, which was conducted by the GOP firm National Research. Rather, a survey such as this one is more likely aimed at convincing donors that Ciattarelli, who continues to get badly outspent, is still worth investing in, despite what the polling averages say.

PA-Gov

The Pennsylvania GOP formally endorsed state Treasurer Stacy Garrity's bid against Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro over the weekend, but one prominent Republican is still complaining.

"It's not about the person they're endorsing, it's about the process," state Sen. Doug Mastriano told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "Why even vote? Why have a primary?"

Mastriano, who got blown out by Shapiro three years ago, has said he's still considering a second campaign and maybe even launched one earlier this summer—who can say with this guy? The Pennsylvania Republican Party, though, evidently has no interest in seeing a return engagement.

RI-Gov

Attorney General Peter Neronha tells the Boston Globe that he'll decide in the first week of October whether he'll enter the Democratic primary for governor of Rhode Island. Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes is already challenging Democratic Gov. Dan McKee for renomination.

House

IL-09

Political operative Miracle Jenkins has dropped out of the crowded Democratic primary for Illinois' open 9th District and endorsed Bushra Amiwala, a district school board member in Skokie. The race is still packed, though: Jenkins's departure leaves Amiwala as one of 17 Democrats running to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky.

MT-01

Smokejumper Sam Forstag, a member of an elite team that fights wildfires, is considering seeking the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin reports.

Rubashkin adds that Forstag, who is a union leader, likely won't decide before November whether to seek Montana's 1st District in the western part of the state. Donald Trump carried this constituency 54-43, according to calculations by The Downballot.

TX-08

Sen. Ted Cruz has endorsed attorney Jessica Hart Steinmann, a former aide who serves as general counsel for a think tank called the America First Policy Institute, in the Republican primary for Texas' open 8th District. Steinmann is currently the only notable Republican running to succeed retiring Rep. Morgan Luttrell in this safely red constituency north of Houston.

TX-32

Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, a former Democrat who joined the Republican Party in 2023, isn't ruling out entering the race for Texas' open 32nd District. Johnson told the Dallas Morning News, "There’s always speculation in politics, but today my attention remains on serving our city."

Ballot Measures

MO Ballot

A Missouri judge has ordered Republicans to rewrite the ballot language for a constitutional amendment seeking to repeal abortion rights in the state, ruling that the original version was "insufficient and unfair."

After Missouri voters approved a citizen-sponsored amendment last year to overturn the state's near-total ban on abortion, the GOP-dominated legislature voted in May to place a new measure on the ballot that would roll back those newly won rights.

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However, in a brief order, Judge Daniel Green ruled that the description of the GOP's amendment that voters would see on their ballots "fails to adequately alert voters that the proposed constitutional amendment would eliminate" the 2024 amendment. He instructed Republicans to draft a new summary and indicated that he might impose one of his own if they don't produce an adequate one.

Green also rejected an argument from plaintiffs that the new amendment violates the state's ban on measures that address more than one subject. Opponents had argued that a separate provision of the amendment barring gender-affirming care for minors should not have been combined with policies regarding abortion, but Green concluded that the two were "closely related."

Mayors & County Leaders

Miami, FL Mayor

Thirteen candidates filed to run for mayor of Miami ahead of Saturday's deadline, leading the Miami Herald's Carl Juste to predict that the officially nonpartisan Nov. 4 contest could be the city's "most competitive mayoral race in more than two decades." A runoff would take place Dec. 9 in the likely event that no one wins a majority of the vote.

Juste identifies two Democrats and three Republicans, and one independent as the major contenders in the race to succeed incumbent Francis Suarez, a Republican who cannot seek reelection because of term limits.

The Democrats to watch are Miami-Dade County Commissioner Eileen Higgins and former Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2022. Either would be the first non-Republican to lead Miami since Manny Diaz, an independent who supported Barack Obama, left office in 2009. (Diaz later became a Democrat.)

The dield also includes two former mayors who went on to win other offices: Republican Joe Carollo, who is now a city commissioner, and former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Xavier Suarez, who is the current mayor's father.

The older Suarez identified as a Democrat during his two separate stints in the 1980s and 1990s, which also makes him Miami's last Democratic mayor. Suarez later joined the Republican Party, but he no longer has a party affiliation.

As for Carollo, who only announced his campaign on Saturday, he continues to deal with the fallout of a civil case in which a jury found that he had used city resources to punish a pair of businessmen for supporting a rival.

The Republican side further includes former City Manager Emilio Gonzalez, who previously led U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services under George W. Bush. The final name to watch belongs to former City Commissioner Alex Diaz de la Portilla, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis permanently suspended from office after state authorities charged him with corruption. The charges, however, were dropped last year ahead of a planned trial.

The other seven candidates have attracted comparatively little attention—a crowd that includes Kenneth James DeSantis, who tells Political Cortadito he's related to the governor but "not closely."

Miami, like the rest of South Florida, has veered sharply to the right in recent years. Hillary Clinton set a high-water mark in 2016 when she carried the city by a giant 69-29 margin, but four years later, Joe Biden racked up a considerably smaller 59-40 score. In 2024, when the bottom dropped out for Florida Democrats, Kamala Harris squeaked out just a 50-49 win.

Other Races

Michigan

Republican leaders in Michigan have voted to schedule an endorsement convention for March 28 to designate candidates for attorney general, secretary of state, state Supreme Court, and the State Board of Education.

While nominees for these posts won't officially be chosen until a separate party convention takes place next August, the endorsement convention allows Republicans to unofficially select their preferred candidates and give them a head start in the general election.

Morning Digest: An indicted election denier wants to be Michigan's top law enforcement official—again

State Democrats tell the Detroit News they'll also hold an endorsement convention, though they have not yet chosen a date.

Traditional party primaries will still take place next year in the governor's race, as well as for all federal offices and seats in the state legislature. The primary is set for Aug. 4, though the News reported last week that a bipartisan group of legislators is considering a plan to move it to May.

Editor’s Note: This Digest incorrectly stated that former Miami Mayor Xavier Suarez is a Republican. Suarez is a former Republican who no longer has a party affiliation.