Morning Digest: Why Democrats think this star musician can reverse their losses with Latinos

South Texas has moved sharply toward the GOP, but there are signs of discontent

Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, Democratic candidate for Congress in Texas (credit: Bobby Pulido Facebook)

Leading Off

TX-15

Tejano music star Bobby Pulido announced Wednesday that he would oppose Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, a decision that gives Democrats a coveted recruit for a South Texas district that's swung hard to the right over the last decade.

Pulido, a Latin Grammy winner who was nominated again the same day he announced his campaign, used his kickoff video to highlight his local roots and argue he's not interested in partisanship.

"I won't stand by and watch as the South Texas that raised me, that gave my family a chance, be torn down and divided by people who don't know who we are or how we live, who convince us to hate each other over party labels," says Pulido. "Look, I'm not Team Red or Team Blue. South Texas, I'm Team You."

After decrying rising costs and "greedy corporations," the candidate speaks about immigration.

"Yes, we have to get the criminals out and secure the border," he says. "But we can do that without destroying families and our South Texas economy."

A prominent Democratic group was quick to celebrate Pulido's launch by releasing a poll arguing he has an opening to flip the revamped 15th District, which would have favored Donald Trump 59-41 under both the new GOP gerrymander and the lines used last year.

Public Policy Polling's survey for House Majority PAC shows De La Cruz edging out Pulido just 41-38, with 21% undecided. The release did not mention emergency physician Ada Cuellar, who began running for the Democratic nomination in July.

Pulido also received an immediate vote of confidence from a pair of progressive groups, the Valiente Action Fund and Unrig Our Economy, which said they would spend $250,000 to air digital ads attacking De La Cruz over the next four weeks.

One spot slams the congresswoman and her GOP colleagues for "kicking seniors off their health care, cutting food assistance for kids, and raising your electric bill—just to give more tax cuts to their billionaire buddies." A second ad emphasizes a similar message.

If he's to unseat the incumbent, though, Pulido will need to defy an unfavorable trend in this heavily Latino constituency that Republicans are hoping will keep the 15th red for a long time to come.

Not long ago, the region was anything but friendly to Trump and his party. Hillary Clinton would have carried the new version of the 15th District 55-41, while Democrat Beto O'Rourke would have outpaced Republican Sen. Ted Cruz 55-44 two years later.

But things rapidly began to change in 2020 as Trump made huge gains in heavily Latino areas like the Rio Grande Valley. Based on results from that election, Trump would have narrowly carried the latest incarnation of the 15th 51-48 against Joe Biden. Four years later, his showing would have improved dramatically, resulting in an 18-point landslide.

Democrats, though, have reason to hope that they can make up at least some of the ground they've lost with Latinos in time for next year's midterm elections. A recent nationwide poll of Latino voters for the progressive group Somos Votantes showed Trump with an ugly 37-60 job approval rating, a drop from the already negative 43-54 score it found in February.

And if the 15th District is competitive next year, De La Cruz won't enjoy all the benefits of incumbency. While GOP mapmakers, who were determined to weaken other Democrats in the area, took care to ensure that this constituency didn't become bluer, they also left the two-term congresswoman with a district that's more than half new to her.

According to data from The Downballot, De La Cruz currently represents just over 40% of the denizens of the new 15th. That won't be much of a concern for her if Trump's recent gains prove to be enduring, but it could be a liability if voters decide they want to give Democrats another look.

The Downballot Podcast

How not to get ripped off when you advertise online

Digital advertising is an increasingly important part of every political campaign, but it turns out tons of money gets wasted on, well, crap. Myles Bugbee, the founder of Persuasion & Pixels, joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explain how middlemen in this opaque new world extract money from advertisers without adding any value—and how campaigns can avoid common pitfalls. Republicans have already learned some important lessons, but Democrats, Bugbee says, are still playing catch-up.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also explore the brand-new candidacy of Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, whose bid for a House seat in South Texas has Democrats hopeful he can help reverse the party's losses with Latinos. They discuss party-switcher Geoff Duncan, who's now running for governor of Georgia as a Democrat after serving as lieutenant governor as a Republican. And they check in on former Rep. Wiley Nickel, a past guest on the program who just launched a bid for a powerful district attorney's post.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

MA-Sen

Rep. Jake Auchincloss said this week that he would not challenge Sen. Ed Markey in next September's Democratic primary, but another member of Massachusetts' House delegation may be interested in opposing the 79-year-old incumbent.

Rep. Seth Moulton, 46, is the subject of "speculation" that he could run for Senate, Kelly Garrity writes in Politico. While his team did not respond to Garrity's request for comment, Moulton himself did not rule out seeking higher office over the weekend.

"I'm not not thinking about it," the congressman told Garrity when he was asked if he might run for statewide office.

Moulton, who infuriated progressives last year with his comments about transgender people, currently faces intraparty opposition in the 6th Congressional District from software engineer Bethany Andres-Beck, who is trans.

Auchincloss, for his part, should have no trouble securing reelection in the 4th District, though he's still holding out hope for an open Senate seat. The congressman told the Boston Globe's Sam Brodey that he'd think about seeking a promotion in the event that Markey decides to retire.

The senator, though, has repeatedly said he'll be on the ballot again next year, and he's been rolling out endorsements for his reelection campaign. Markey drew attention earlier this summer when he announced the support of several elected officials from Auchincloss' district, though he insisted to Brodey that he wasn't aiming to deter the congressman.

ME-Sen

Brewery company owner Dan Kleban has publicized a new survey from Public Policy Polling that gives him a 44-35 lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who also sports a negative 24-63 favorability rating. Kleban's memo, which was prepared by a different pollster, Normington Petts, did not mention either of the two other Democrats also seeking to defeat Collins, oyster farmer Graham Platner and former congressional aide Jordan Wood.

Governors

AK-Gov

Republican Treg Taylor, who stepped down as state attorney general last month, has joined the incredibly crowded race for Alaska's open governorship—a race that could grow more crowded still.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski told Puck's Leigh Ann Caldwell on Wednesday that she was not ruling out a bid, reiterating comments she unexpectedly made to reporters last month. This time, though, Murkowski added that she has the "luxury" of being able to wait "months" to decide—presumably thanks to her name recognition and fundraising ability.

Including Taylor, around half a dozen notable Republicans are already running. Former state Sen. Tom Begich is the only Democrat in the race, though he's said he'd defer to former Rep. Mary Peltola if she decides to get in.

GA-Gov

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced Wednesday that he would enter the Republican primary for governor of Georgia, a decision that comes three years after he faced down an attempt by Donald Trump to end his political career.

Raffensperger, who became wealthy in the business world before entering politics, attracted widespread attention after the 2020 election when he withstood pressure from Trump to "find 11,780 votes" to overturn Joe Biden's victory in the state.

Trump sought revenge in 2022 by ardently backing Rep. Jody Hice's intraparty challenge against the incumbent, but Raffensperger prevailed 52-33 before decisively winning the general election. Trump has since turned his focus elsewhere, and Politico notes that he and Raffensperger even met at the White House this summer to talk about "election integrity."

The Peach State's MAGA base, though, is anything but ready to forgive Raffensperger for refusing to help steal the 2020 election. Delegates to the state GOP convention in June adopted a resolution forbidding the party from letting him "qualify as a Republican or run for any elected office," though party chair Josh McKoon soon confirmed he wouldn't actually try to keep Raffensperger from running.

Raffensperger, who had previously flirted with challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, kicked off his campaign for governor with a video pledging he'd implement a "bold conservative agenda." The secretary's message did not mention Trump, a rarity at a time when most Republican candidates are desperate to tie themselves to the party's supreme master.

Raffensperger is the fourth major Republican to enter the race to succeed GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who cannot seek a third term. The field consists of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who has Trump's endorsement; Attorney General Chris Carr, who also beat a Trump-backed challenger in 2022; and businessman Clark Dean, a political newcomer.

Democrats have their own busy contest as they seek to end the GOP's nearly quarter-century in power. Primaries will take place on May 19, but candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on June 16.

NJ-Gov

Quinnipiac has published its first poll of New Jersey's race for governor, finding Democrat Mikie Sherrill with a 49-41 lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. That's in line with the bulk of other public surveys, every one of which has shown Sherrill in front.

TX-Gov

Businessman Andrew White has filed paperwork for a bid for governor—a post once held by his father—and tells the Houston Chronicle he'll decide whether to challenge Republican Greg Abbott next week.

White ran for governor once before in 2018, losing the Democratic nomination 53-47 to former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez in a runoff. (Abbott later defeated Valdez 56-43.) His late father, Mark White, served a single term as governor decades ago, unseating Republican incumbent Bill Clements in 1982 but losing a rematch four years later.

The only notable Democrat who has announced a campaign against Abbott is rancher Bobby Cole, who is running for office for the first time. A number of more prominent contenders, though, are still considering opposing Abbott, who has said he'll seek a fourth term next year.

WI-Gov

State Rep. Francesca Hong, who belongs to the Assembly's four-member Socialist Caucus, just entered the race for Wisconsin's open governorship.

She joins three other notable Democrats hoping to succeed Gov. Tony Evers, who is retiring after two terms. The other contenders so far include Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, and state Sen. Kelda Roys, though the field could still grow further.

Two Republicans, businessman Bill Berrien and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, are also running, though others are considering.

House

CO-01

University of Colorado Regent Wanda James launched a campaign Wednesday to unseat longtime Rep. Diana DeGette in the Democratic primary for Colorado's safely blue 1st District.

"We've seen Democrats nationwide asking for people who are going to fight for democracy, fight for our brand," James told Colorado Public Radio's Caitlyn Kim. "It's time for us to change this brand, to get people excited again about what it is that Democrats do."

James, who would be the first Black person to represent Denver in Congress, enters the race with deep connections in the political world. She served as campaign manager for now-Gov. Jared Polis during his victorious bid for the neighboring 2nd District in 2008, and she's long been a major fundraiser for national Democrats.

But James, who was elected in 2022 to represent the 1st Congressional District on the CU Board of Regents, came into conflict with her colleagues earlier this year after she highlighted what she argued was racist messaging in an education campaign warning against the dangers of cannabis.

James' fellow regents argued that, because she owned a marijuana dispensary, she had a conflict of interest, and they overwhelmingly voted to censure her. James, who maintains she did nothing wrong, tells Kim that her detractors "handed me a gift by keeping my name in the newspapers all summer long."

DeGette, who is 68, first won the 1st District in 1996, and she's never struggled to hold it. In response to James' entry, the congresswoman's team signaled that she would seek a 16th term next year.

"In these uncertain times when extreme MAGA Republicans control the White House and Congress, we need Congresswoman DeGette's proven leadership to hold the Trump administration accountable and continue delivering for Denverites," her campaign said in a statement.

DeGette already faced intraparty opposition from former corporate attorney Melat Kiros, who at 28 is four decades the congresswoman's junior. Kim writes that the congresswoman and James, by contrast, "are less than a decade apart" in age.

IL-07

Attorney Reed Showalter, who served in both the Justice Department and on the National Economic Council during the Biden administration, announced this week that he was entering the Democratic primary for Illinois' open 7th District.

Showalter pledged in his announcement video not to be "the kind of weak-kneed Democrat who puts his head in the sand."

"I'll throw sand in the gears," he continues. "Federal troops in our streets aren't getting people better fed, housed, or healthier."

Showalter joins a packed field of Democrats running to replace Rep. Danny Davis in the 7th, a safely blue constituency based in Chicago. Davis, who is retiring from the seat he first won in 1996, is supporting state Rep. La Shawn Ford in the March 17 primary.

MO-06, MO-04

Former state Senate Minority Leader John Rizzo tells the Kansas City Star that DCCC chair Suzan DelBene reached out to him about running against Republican Rep. Sam Graves in Missouri's 6th District should the GOP's new congressional gerrymander take effect.

Rizzo, however, said that any campaign is "in its infancy stages" and emphasized that he hopes the map won't come into force. Opponents have already moved ahead with plans to block it, both filing a lawsuit in state court and collecting signatures for a veto referendum.

While the revamped 6th would get bluer under the new map, it would still remain hostile turf for Democrats. Under the old lines, it voted for Donald Trump by a 69-30 margin in 2024; the new version would have supported him 63-36.

The Star says that DelBene also spoke with one of Rizzo's predecessors as minority leader, Jolie Justus, about taking Republican Rep. Mark Alford in the redrawn 4th, but she says she's not interested.

NH-01

Businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP nod for New Hampshire's swingy 1st District last year, says she'll try again now that the seat is open. Both parties have multi-way primaries in the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who is running for Senate.

NV-03

Real estate businessman Joshua Walters, whom the Wall Street Journal identified as a billionaire last year, announced Wednesday that he would seek the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in Nevada's swingy 3rd District.

Walters, who is also active in the cryptocurrency sector, will compete in a primary that includes several other Republicans. His most notable opponent is Marty O'Donnell, a video game composer who took fourth place in last year's primary and has already self-funded $3 million for his second try.

Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump narrowly prevailed 49.5 to 48.8 in this district in the southwestern Las Vegas area, four years after Joe Biden carried it 52-46.

SC-01

​​Dorchester County Councilman Jay Byars said Wednesday that he was entering the race to replace Rep. Nancy Mace, a fellow South Carolina Republican who is running for governor, though he almost immediately found himself in a fight with his would-be predecessor.

"I'm a little bit tired of watching the drama that's up there," Byars informed The Post and Courier. When asked to clarify, the new candidate said, "We have one in particular who hurts our district because they're more interested in serving themselves than this district. So without naming names, I'll let you draw your own conclusions."

Mace's team quickly did just that. "Jay Byars and his ego have absolutely no chance of being elected to Congress, so good luck with that," a spokesperson for the congresswoman told the paper.

Byars launched his campaign for the 1st District a week after Sam McCown, whom the Post and Courier identified as a "[b]ow tie-wearing former doctor" in its headline. The GOP field for this conservative district also includes Air Force veteran Alex Pelbath and state Rep. Mark Smith.

TX-10

Democratic state Sen. Sarah Eckhardt says that she's considering running to replace retiring GOP Rep. Michael McCaul in Texas' 10th District.

Eckhardt acknowledged to the Austin American-Statesman that she would have a challenging time flipping a constituency that, under the GOP's new gerrymander, would have favored Donald Trump 60-38 last year. Still, she argued the task wasn't impossible.

"It's a difficult district drawn for Republicans, but we're not getting the services we expect from the federal government," she told the paper. "I am pretty confident that Republicans and Democrats, including libertarians and independents and people in the middle, are pretty tired of government that doesn't respond to them, that isn't accountable to them."

VA-07

Army veteran Doug Ollivant, who is a former member of the National Security Council, announced Tuesday that he was entering the Republican primary to face Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman.

Ollivant began his campaign two months after state Sen. Tara Durant became the first notable Republican to challenge Vindman in Virginia's 7th District.

Kamala Harris carried this constituency in Northern Virginia 51-48 last year, which represented a decided shift to the right from Joe Biden's 53-46 performance in 2020. Vindman nevertheless won his first term 51-49 after an expensive race.

Legislatures

Special Elections

The fields are now set for a pair of November special elections in two swingy legislative seats in the Northeast that both flipped from backing Joe Biden in 2020 to supporting Donald Trump last year.

In New Hampshire, Republicans tapped Marc Tremblay, the police commissioner in the town of Berlin, who won Tuesday's GOP primary with 157 votes versus just 10 for his opponent. He'll face Democrat Corinne Cascadden, a school administrator who previously represented the district for one term and was unopposed for her party's nomination.

The two will face off for one of two seats in the 5th House District in Coös County, the northernmost county in the state. The district, which covers Berlin, voted for Biden by a 53-46 margin but went for Trump 52-48 last year.

One seat became vacant when Gov. Kelly Ayotte appointed Republican Rep. Brian Valerino to run the local state prison earlier this year. Valerino had only been in office for a few months after finishing first on the ballot in 2024 with 28% of the vote (all candidates run together, with the top two winning).

Cascadden, who first won office in 2022, ended up in third with 24%. That wasn't far behind the second-place Republican, Peter Morency, who took 26%, but as a result, the GOP flipped both seats in the district.

Republicans currently hold a 218-177 advantage in the House, where two independents also serve. Two other seats are also vacant, one held by each party. However, Republican leaders in the town of Salem voted to leave a seat in Rockingham County's 25th District vacant for nearly two years out of fear of losing a special election, even though the district voted 59-40 for Trump.

Meanwhile, in New York, Democratic officials picked Plattsburgh Town Supervisor Michael Cashman as their nominee in the 115th Assembly District, while Republicans have chosen retired New York State Police Major Brent Davison.

The district, which sits along the Canadian border in the northeastern corner of the state, had been held by Democrat Billy Jones, who resigned last month to become an administrator at a local community college. (Jones had also been touted as a possible candidate in the aborted special election for Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik's seat but declined before Trump pulled the plug on Stefanik's nomination as UN ambassador.)

Jones, one of the few prominent Democrats in New York's rural North Country, ran unopposed in three of his four bids for reelection—including last year—after winning his first race in 2016 by a close 53-47 score. But even though Republicans left his seat uncontested, Trump carried the district 50-49, according to calculations from The Downballot based on data compiled by Ben Rosenblatt. Four years earlier, Biden had won it 52-46.

Unlike New Hampshire's House, which is prone to swinging between the parties, the New York Assembly isn't going anywhere. Democrats hold a 102-47 supermajority, with just this seat vacant, and Republicans haven't controlled the chamber since the early 1970s.

You can keep track of every legislative special election across the country by bookmarking The Downballot's continually updated Big Board.

Editor's note: In the previous Digest, we incorrectly stated that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz first won his post in 2010. He won it in 2018.

We also incorrectly stated that the late Rep. Bob Matsui rose to become the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee. He was a senior member of the committee but never held the top post.

In addition, we’ve clarified that New Hampshire Democrat Corinne Cascadden was previously the incumbent in Coös County’s 5th House District.