Morning Digest: An Arizona Democrat looks to expand the House playing field
Jonathan Nez is seeking a rematch after running ahead of the ticket last year
Leading Off
AZ-02
Former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez announced Tuesday morning that he'd seek a rematch against Rep. Eli Crane, a far-right incumbent who defeated him in an expensive race last year.
Crane prevailed 54-46 in that contest, but Nez ran well ahead of the top of the ticket in defeat. Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried Arizona's 2nd District, a sprawling constituency in the northeastern part of the state, by a 57-42 margin four years after he took it by a smaller 53-45 spread.
Nez, though, thinks that Crane's vote for recent GOP bills making extreme cuts to government services will damage him even in this conservative district.
"Nearly 1 in 3 people in our district depend on Medicaid," the Democrat said in a statement released to The Downballot announcing his campaign. "Arizona's second congressional district will be disproportionately harmed by Crane's recent votes to slash Medicaid, jeopardize rural hospitals, and cut funding for public media, including tribal radio stations."
Crane, who is a member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, went along with his party's leadership on those budget votes, but he's been anything but a loyal Republican during his two terms in office.
Crane, a Navy SEAL veteran and ardent election conspiracy theorist, first won his seat in 2022 by ousting Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran in a district that became considerably more Republican following redistricting. The new congressman made news during his first week on the job in January of 2023 when he refused to support Kevin McCarthy for speaker during a dragged-out process that took 15 ballots to resolve.
Less than a year later, Crane generated still more attention when he became one of eight Republicans who voted to boot McCarthy from his leadership post. There was immediately talk that McCarthy's vaunted "revenge tour" could make a stop in the 2nd District, but the incumbent ended up easily winning renomination last summer.
Crane entered the general election as the favorite against Nez, who had unexpectedly lost his 2022 bid to remain president of the Navajo Nation to a fellow Democrat—a result Nez attributed to his "pretty tough" response to the COVID pandemic.
But the Democratic nominee, who would have been Arizona's first Native American member of Congress, ended up decisively outraising Crane during the final months of the race. Nez, who was running to flip a seat where Native Americans made up about 20% of the population, contrasted himself with the incumbent by arguing he could "work both sides of the aisle."
Nez's bipartisan pitch wasn't enough to defeat Crane, who has continued to cause trouble for party brass, but he thinks it will resonate in 2026.
"As Navajo Nation President, I worked across the aisle to deliver water security and lower prices for Northern Arizona, and that's the kind of leadership we need in Congress," he said as he launched his second effort. "The only thing Crane has fought for since taking office is taking money from our hard working families to give to billionaires. Mr. Crane has betrayed us."
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Senate
GA-Sen, GA-10
Republican Rep. Mike Collins has informed multiple people that he plans to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and may announce before the month is over, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
Collins himself was only too happy to keep people chattering about his plans. He released a 15-second video Monday featuring urging viewers to "Stay Tuned …"
Collins' decision to run for Senate would set off a race to succeed him in Georgia's 10th Congressional District, which includes the eastern Atlanta exurbs, the college town of Athens, and nearby rural areas.
Trump carried this constituency 60-39 in both 2020 and 2024, according to calculations by The Downballot. However, his margin dropped slightly last year, making the district one of just 19 nationwide to move leftward between the last two presidential elections.
NC-Sen
Lara Trump recently said she'll decide by Thanksgiving if she'll run for North Carolina's Senate seat, but she has to meet a different—and non-self-imposed deadline—two months before that.
Political scientist Chris Cooper flags that Trump, who is currently a Florida resident, needs to register to vote back in the Tar Heel State by late September if she wants to be on next year's Republican primary ballot. North Carolina's candidate filing deadline is Dec. 19.
SD-Sen
Donald Trump in 2022: "'Senator' Mike Rounds of the Great State of South Dakota just went woke on the Fraudulent Presidential Election of 2020 … I will never endorse this jerk again."
Donald Trump on Monday: "Mike Rounds has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election—HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!"
Rounds, who is 70, has yet to share his plans for a third term. The senator told KELOLAND News in April, "I'll wait a little bit before I make a formal announcement," though Trump may have just made that announcement for him.
Governors
GA-Gov
Former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond strongly hinted last week that he's decided to seek the Democratic nomination for governor of Georgia.
"If y'all invite me back next year when I'm running for governor, I'm going to be up here for a while," Thurmond told the General Missionary Baptist Convention. Both parties have contested primaries for the post held by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who is termed out.
KS-Gov
State Senate President Ty Masterson said Sunday that he was joining the busy Republican primary for governor of Kansas.
The new candidate, who has led the upper chamber since 2021, used his announcement to highlight his battles with Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, who cannot seek a third term next year.
Masterson and his counterparts in the state House have overridden Kelly's vetoes numerous times thanks to their supermajorities, though they haven't always gotten what they've wanted: The Kansas City Star notes that GOP infighting this year prevented Republicans from passing wide-ranging tax plans.
The Star also highlights Masterson's connections to one of Donald Trump's least-favorite conservative heavyweights. Masterson's six-figure job outside the part-time legislature has him serving as executive director of GoCreate, which the paper characterizes as a "collaborative workspace at Wichita State University" funded by Koch Industries.
The Koch network became toxic in MAGAworld last cycle when it backed Nikki Haley's unsuccessful campaign for president, though like with so many of Trump's other intra-party feuds, it's impossible to know if the party's master will care much by next year. Masterson, unsurprisingly, launched his campaign by tying himself to Trump.
House
AL-01
Former Republican Rep. Jerry Carl is "highly likely" to run to reclaim Alabama's 1st District, WALA's Stephen Alexander reports. This safely red House seat is currently held by GOP Rep. Barry Moore, who looks set to announce next month that he's running for the Senate.
Carl and Moore were both elected to the House in 2020, but the two colleagues came into conflict four years later after a federal court imposed a new congressional map after ruling that the Voting Rights Act required the creation of a second seat where Black voters could elect their preferred candidates.
As a result, Moore's 2nd District became Democratic-leaning, leading him to converge with Carl on the revamped 1st in the southern part of the state. Carl, who was close to the House leadership, served considerably more of the redrawn constituency than Moore, a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, but Moore prevailed 52-48.
CA-40
Labor organizer Perry Meade announced Monday that he would challenge Republican Rep. Young Kim in California's 40th District, where a busy top-two primary awaits next year.
The 26-year-old Meade, whom Politico says is the youngest member of the Orange County Democratic Party's central committee, kicked off his effort by calling for a "new generation" in Congress.
The new candidate used his launch video to decry the chaos and violence of the Trump administration, including an episode last month when federal agents handcuffed Sen. Alex Padilla and threw him to the ground, asking, "Can we just catch a fucking break?"
Meade is one of several Democrats opposing Kim in eastern Orange County. Trump carried the 40th District 49-47 four years after Joe Biden won it by a similar 50-48 spread.
CA-41
Public school science teacher Katherine Aleman, who is also a chicken farmer and a former member of the Norco city council, announced Monday that she was joining the race to face longtime GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in California's 41st District, a red-tilting seat in the Coachella Valley.
Aleman, who lost reelection last year after four years as the city council's only Democratic member, argued that her geographic base of support would make a difference. She told Politico, "The majority of the residents and the voters in this district live on the west side, which is where I live."
One high-profile would-be constituent agrees Aleman is the best option to defeat Calvert, who was first elected in 1992. The new candidate entered the race with an endorsement from former Sen. Barbara Boxer, who has long lived in the 41st District and has remained active in politics since leaving Congress in 2017.
"She's an undiscovered star," Boxer told CalMatters of Aleman. "I've been around a long time, and I never say that."
Aleman was considerably more pointed when it came to the incumbent.
"I'm a middle-school science teacher," she said. "We have a term for someone like Ken Calvert, and that's a dinosaur."
Wealthy businessman Brandon Riker and attorney Anuj Dixit have spent the last few months challenging Calvert. A third Democrat, school board member Abel Chavez, is also in, but he struggled to raise money through the end of the last fundraising quarter.
Donald Trump carried the 41st 52-46 last year, which was an improvement from his slim 50-49 victory here in 2020.
CT-01
Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry has filed FEC paperwork for a potential Democratic primary challenge to longtime Rep. John Larson in Connecticut's 1st District.
The incumbent, who turned 78 on Tuesday, already faces intra-party opposition from Hartford Board of Education member Ruth Fortune. Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin is also considering opposing Larson for renomination, Kevin Rennie reported last week in Daily Reductions.
MN-02
Republican state Sen. Eric Pratt announced Monday that he would run for Minnesota's 2nd District, a suburban Twin Cities constituency that Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is leaving behind to run for the Senate.
Pratt launched his effort by touting himself as an ally of Donald Trump, which the Minnesota Star Tribune notes comes after he's faced unwanted scrutiny about his old Trump skepticism from a top MAGA lieutenant.
"Anti-Trump RINO @EricPrattMN is considering a run in Minnesota's GOP Primary for District 2, despite his long history of anti-Trump comments and pro-illegal alien policy positions," far-right agitator Laura Loomer tweeted earlier this month.
Loomer's oppo file included a 2016 clip of Pratt saying, "I've never endorsed Mr. Trump and I really don't know yet how I'm going to vote. I wish we had somebody else leading this party."
The Pratt of 2025 had a different take, saying, "President Trump is making strides and bringing energy back to our economy, but families in CD2 still need someone who can win in November to keep that momentum going."
While that about-face might help Pratt win the GOP nod, though, it's unlikely to do him much good in a general election for a district that Kamala Harris carried 52-46 last year.
Pratt joins Marine veteran Tyler Kistner, who unsuccessfully challenged Craig in 2020 and 2022, in the GOP primary. The Democratic contest pits state Sen. Matt Klein against former state Sen. Matt Little.
NE-02
Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades on Monday joined the busy Democratic primary for Nebraska's swingy 2nd District, where Republican Rep. Don Bacon is not seeking reelection.
Rhoades, the fourth prominent Democrat in the race, argued to the Omaha World-Herald she's the only one who "comes from a working class background and knows what it's like to struggle and live paycheck to paycheck."
Rhoades, who won her post in 2022, has long been involved in local politics in the Omaha area, including as leader of the Douglas County Democratic Party and as a member of the state Public Service Commission.
A consulting firm Rhoades created was also involved in John Ewing's successful run for mayor of Omaha this year, and her husband managed Ewing's campaign.
RI-02
Cranston Mayor Ken Hopkins tells WPRI he's not ruling out seeking the GOP nomination for a seat in Congress, though he also said the same about potentially running for lieutenant governor.
Cranston, the second-largest city in Rhode Island, is located in Democratic Rep. Seth Magaziner's 2nd District, which Kamala Harris carried 52-46 last year. Hopkins' predecessor, Alan Fung, ran against Magaziner in 2022 when the district was last open but lost 50-47.
TX-34
Army veteran Eric Flores on Monday became the first prominent Republican to announce a campaign against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in Texas' 34th District.
Flores, who is also a former federal prosecutor, began his effort the same day that the GOP-led legislature convened for a special session where congressional redistricting is on the agenda.
"If our district doesn't move too much, we'll kick his or anyone else's ass, just as we have the 19 candidates before," the congressman told the Texas Tribune. Gonzales won the current version of his constituency 51-49 as Donald Trump was carrying the 34th 52-47.
Legislatures
MN State Senate
Democratic state Sen. Nicole Mitchell said Monday that she would resign by Aug. 4, an announcement that came three days after a jury convicted her on burglary charges.
Mitchell's departure will mean that Democrats will lose their one-seat majority in the 67-member chamber, but they should get it back before long. Mitchell's 47th District, which is based just east of St. Paul, favored Kamala Harris 60-38 last year.
Democratic Gov. Tim Walz will schedule a special election after Mitchell's departure becomes official, and he says it will take place before the new legislative session begins in February.
Mayors & County Leaders
Miami, FL Mayor
A state judge ruled Monday that Miami's City Commission could not unilaterally move this year's planned municipal elections to 2026, saying that any such change requires voter approval. A member of the commission quickly announced his side would appeal.
In a separate development, the field to succeed termed-out Mayor Francis Suarez expanded just hours later when former Mayor Xavier Suarez—a Republican-turned-independent who also happens to be the incumbent's father—announced he would run.
The older Suarez, who is 76, made history in 1985 when he became the city's first Cuban-born mayor. Suarez, who identified as a Democrat at that point in his career, left office in 1993 but launched a comeback four years later against Joe Carollo, the Republican who had been elected to succeed him.
Suarez seemed to come out on top in 1997, but the courts ordered a re-do the next year after determining that the outcome had been marred by ballot fraud. Carollo convincingly won a rematch, though it didn't mark the end of his opponent's career.
Suarez took a weak sixth place in the 2001 nonpartisan primary for mayor, which also saw Carollo fail to advance to the general election. But Suarez, who would go on to identify as an independent and later a Republican, won a seat on the Miami-Dade County Commission in 2004. Despite his comeback, though, Suarez's 2020 campaign to be county mayor—which is a separate post from the one he once held—ended with a distant fourth-place showing.
Suarez could be in for a fourth campaign against Carollo, a city commissioner who has also flirted with running to reclaim the mayor's office.
Carollo, however, is dreaming of a comeback even as he continues to deal with the fallout of a civil case in which a jury found that he had used city resources to punish a pair of businessmen for supporting a rival. A federal appeals court last week ruled against Carollo, who is attempting to overturn the $63 million verdict.
The officially nonpartisan contest to replace Xavier Suarez already included former GOP City Manager Emilio Gonzalez, as well as a pair of notable Democrats: Miami-Dade County Commissioner Eileen Higgins and former City Commissioner Ken Russell.
Minneapolis, MN Mayor
State Sen. Omar Fateh won the endorsement of the local Democratic Party for his campaign against Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who is also a Democrat, at a convention on Saturday.
Fateh is the first mayoral candidate to receive the party's backing since 2009. As a result, he'll receive access to the party's data and volunteer network, the Minnesota Star Tribune writes. The development also helps Fateh, who is allied with the Democratic Socialists of America, establish himself as Frey's main rival going into November's ranked-choice general election.
Frey has argued that the convention was marred by technical issues and has appealed to the state party. The mayor also left no doubt that he'd continue his campaign for a third term.
Several other candidates who unsuccessfully sought the party endorsement, including pastor DeWayne Davis and attorney Jazz Hampton, also say they'll keep running.
Editors Note: This Digest incorrectly stated that former Miami Mayor Xavier Suarez is a Republican. Suarez is a former Republican who no longer has a party affiliation.
Former N.C. governor Roy Cooper has ramped up fundraising efforts, fueling speculation of a U.S. Senate run.
https://www.wral.com/story/cooper-ramps-up-fundraising-fueling-speculation-over-possible-us-senate-bid/22093930/
I think he’ll announce it this weekend at the Dems Unity dinner in Raleigh (which is sold out).
RIP to Ozzy Osbourne.
Ozzy Osbourne, an icon of metal and hard rock music, dies at 76. Osbourne had numerous successful albums and singles, both solo and with Black Sabbath.
Osbourne, along with his wife Sharon and their children Kelly and Jack, starred in The Osbournes in the early-to-mid 2000s on MTV.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2025/jul/22/ozzy-osbourne-black-sabbath-frontman-and-icon-of-british-heavy-metal-dies-aged-76