Two things would have to happen but both seem plausible.....
First, the spread in Florida would have to be as wide as Siena's poll indicated, or at least in that ballpark, while the large shift toward Trump in New York would have to happen and shave mid-six-figure vote totals from Harris compared to Biden.
And second, the advertised swing to Trump by Hispanic and Black men would have to materialize. In 2020, one out of nine Hispanics who went for Hillary flipped to Trump. If that happened again, it would probably not be picked up by poll modeling and would enlarge Trump's margins in Texas and shrink them in California. It would affect other states too, of course, but the point is that if demographic trends pumped up Trump's numbers substantially in the four largest states in the country, it'd go a long way toward a national popular vote win.
From where things sit today, I'm betting it's a 50-50 proposition.
I'm with you; imo Trump has a hard ceiling of roughly 46% nationwide and in 2016 Hillary ran at 48% to Trump's 46%; I feel like Harris will run at least 1% minimum more than Hillary to make her floor somewhere in the 48-49% range(that gives you roughly 5% leftover; and out of those I'd give roughly half to third party votes); this gives us Trump 46-47%; Harris 50-51%; and combined others at 2-3%
Not sure why you think third parties will get 2-3% of the vote - the number of "double haters", who are the ones most likely to vote third party, has dropped dramatically since Biden dropped out and Harris replaced him. I think 2% is the absolute ceiling for third-party votes this year, and I'm expecting closer to 1%.
Not sure what post you're talking about, but no, I think it's very unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote. If he couldn't do it in 2016 or 2020, I really don't see how he could possibly do it this time.
A month or so ago I thought Harris would win the popular vote by 4-7 points. Now I'm thinking 2-7 points as the polls are not as good as I thought they would be at this point. I still think that if Trump benefits from a polling error it's likely to be modest, while Harris could potentially get a big one.
Does anyone here believe that Trump will win the popular vote? If so, why?
Do you have a prediction?
Two things would have to happen but both seem plausible.....
First, the spread in Florida would have to be as wide as Siena's poll indicated, or at least in that ballpark, while the large shift toward Trump in New York would have to happen and shave mid-six-figure vote totals from Harris compared to Biden.
And second, the advertised swing to Trump by Hispanic and Black men would have to materialize. In 2020, one out of nine Hispanics who went for Hillary flipped to Trump. If that happened again, it would probably not be picked up by poll modeling and would enlarge Trump's margins in Texas and shrink them in California. It would affect other states too, of course, but the point is that if demographic trends pumped up Trump's numbers substantially in the four largest states in the country, it'd go a long way toward a national popular vote win.
From where things sit today, I'm betting it's a 50-50 proposition.
It's not impossible, but we have an awful lot of polling on this and it basically all points to Harris +3. Maybe +2 on a bad day or +4 on a good day.
I'm with you; imo Trump has a hard ceiling of roughly 46% nationwide and in 2016 Hillary ran at 48% to Trump's 46%; I feel like Harris will run at least 1% minimum more than Hillary to make her floor somewhere in the 48-49% range(that gives you roughly 5% leftover; and out of those I'd give roughly half to third party votes); this gives us Trump 46-47%; Harris 50-51%; and combined others at 2-3%
Not sure why you think third parties will get 2-3% of the vote - the number of "double haters", who are the ones most likely to vote third party, has dropped dramatically since Biden dropped out and Harris replaced him. I think 2% is the absolute ceiling for third-party votes this year, and I'm expecting closer to 1%.
Just going by past couple of presidential elections; I am hoping that you are correct; imo the lower that number is, the better for Harris
By the way, what are your numbers??
?? My numbers for what?
The post ??
You're going to need to be a lot more specific, because I have no idea what you're talking about.
Your predictions?
Do you believe that Trump will win the popular vote? If so, why? The post
Not sure what post you're talking about, but no, I think it's very unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote. If he couldn't do it in 2016 or 2020, I really don't see how he could possibly do it this time.
Do you have a prediction?
nope: KH=52 Felon=46
I suspect this will be within 2 percentage points, possibly just 1, of the final result.
All 3 of us are pretty close to one another
A month or so ago I thought Harris would win the popular vote by 4-7 points. Now I'm thinking 2-7 points as the polls are not as good as I thought they would be at this point. I still think that if Trump benefits from a polling error it's likely to be modest, while Harris could potentially get a big one.
What's your current prediction?
Don't put any money on this, but Harris wins by 4 nationally and wins every swing state except maybe Arizona.
So roughly 51-47%?..we all seem to be in the same ballpark(interesting)