Two things would have to happen but both seem plausible.....
First, the spread in Florida would have to be as wide as Siena's poll indicated, or at least in that ballpark, while the large shift toward Trump in New York would have to happen and shave mid-six-figure vote totals from Harris compared to Biden.
Two things would have to happen but both seem plausible.....
First, the spread in Florida would have to be as wide as Siena's poll indicated, or at least in that ballpark, while the large shift toward Trump in New York would have to happen and shave mid-six-figure vote totals from Harris compared to Biden.
And second, the advertised swing to Trump by Hispanic and Black men would have to materialize. In 2020, one out of nine Hispanics who went for Hillary flipped to Trump. If that happened again, it would probably not be picked up by poll modeling and would enlarge Trump's margins in Texas and shrink them in California. It would affect other states too, of course, but the point is that if demographic trends pumped up Trump's numbers substantially in the four largest states in the country, it'd go a long way toward a national popular vote win.
From where things sit today, I'm betting it's a 50-50 proposition.
Two things would have to happen but both seem plausible.....
First, the spread in Florida would have to be as wide as Siena's poll indicated, or at least in that ballpark, while the large shift toward Trump in New York would have to happen and shave mid-six-figure vote totals from Harris compared to Biden.
And second, the advertised swing to Trump by Hispanic and Black men would have to materialize. In 2020, one out of nine Hispanics who went for Hillary flipped to Trump. If that happened again, it would probably not be picked up by poll modeling and would enlarge Trump's margins in Texas and shrink them in California. It would affect other states too, of course, but the point is that if demographic trends pumped up Trump's numbers substantially in the four largest states in the country, it'd go a long way toward a national popular vote win.
From where things sit today, I'm betting it's a 50-50 proposition.