I'm with you; imo Trump has a hard ceiling of roughly 46% nationwide and in 2016 Hillary ran at 48% to Trump's 46%; I feel like Harris will run at least 1% minimum more than Hillary to make her floor somewhere in the 48-49% range(that gives you roughly 5% leftover; and out of those I'd give roughly half to third party votes); this gives us Trump 46-47%; Harris 50-51%; and combined others at 2-3%
It's not impossible, but we have an awful lot of polling on this and it basically all points to Harris +3. Maybe +2 on a bad day or +4 on a good day.
I'm with you; imo Trump has a hard ceiling of roughly 46% nationwide and in 2016 Hillary ran at 48% to Trump's 46%; I feel like Harris will run at least 1% minimum more than Hillary to make her floor somewhere in the 48-49% range(that gives you roughly 5% leftover; and out of those I'd give roughly half to third party votes); this gives us Trump 46-47%; Harris 50-51%; and combined others at 2-3%
Just going by past couple of presidential elections; I am hoping that you are correct; imo the lower that number is, the better for Harris
By the way, what are your numbers??
The post ??
Your predictions?
Do you believe that Trump will win the popular vote? If so, why? The post
Do you have a prediction?