I'm with you; imo Trump has a hard ceiling of roughly 46% nationwide and in 2016 Hillary ran at 48% to Trump's 46%; I feel like Harris will run at least 1% minimum more than Hillary to make her floor somewhere in the 48-49% range(that gives you roughly 5% leftover; and out of those I'd give roughly half to third party votes); this gives us Trump 46-47%; Harris 50-51%; and combined others at 2-3%
Not sure why you think third parties will get 2-3% of the vote - the number of "double haters", who are the ones most likely to vote third party, has dropped dramatically since Biden dropped out and Harris replaced him. I think 2% is the absolute ceiling for third-party votes this year, and I'm expecting closer to 1%.
Not sure what post you're talking about, but no, I think it's very unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote. If he couldn't do it in 2016 or 2020, I really don't see how he could possibly do it this time.
It's not impossible, but we have an awful lot of polling on this and it basically all points to Harris +3. Maybe +2 on a bad day or +4 on a good day.
I'm with you; imo Trump has a hard ceiling of roughly 46% nationwide and in 2016 Hillary ran at 48% to Trump's 46%; I feel like Harris will run at least 1% minimum more than Hillary to make her floor somewhere in the 48-49% range(that gives you roughly 5% leftover; and out of those I'd give roughly half to third party votes); this gives us Trump 46-47%; Harris 50-51%; and combined others at 2-3%
Not sure why you think third parties will get 2-3% of the vote - the number of "double haters", who are the ones most likely to vote third party, has dropped dramatically since Biden dropped out and Harris replaced him. I think 2% is the absolute ceiling for third-party votes this year, and I'm expecting closer to 1%.
Just going by past couple of presidential elections; I am hoping that you are correct; imo the lower that number is, the better for Harris
By the way, what are your numbers??
?? My numbers for what?
The post ??
You're going to need to be a lot more specific, because I have no idea what you're talking about.
Your predictions?
Do you believe that Trump will win the popular vote? If so, why? The post
Not sure what post you're talking about, but no, I think it's very unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote. If he couldn't do it in 2016 or 2020, I really don't see how he could possibly do it this time.
Do you have a prediction?
Right now, I'm honestly thinking Harris 52, Trump 47.