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DiesIrae's avatar

It's not impossible, but we have an awful lot of polling on this and it basically all points to Harris +3. Maybe +2 on a bad day or +4 on a good day.

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Jonathan's avatar

I'm with you; imo Trump has a hard ceiling of roughly 46% nationwide and in 2016 Hillary ran at 48% to Trump's 46%; I feel like Harris will run at least 1% minimum more than Hillary to make her floor somewhere in the 48-49% range(that gives you roughly 5% leftover; and out of those I'd give roughly half to third party votes); this gives us Trump 46-47%; Harris 50-51%; and combined others at 2-3%

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ProudNewEnglander's avatar

Not sure why you think third parties will get 2-3% of the vote - the number of "double haters", who are the ones most likely to vote third party, has dropped dramatically since Biden dropped out and Harris replaced him. I think 2% is the absolute ceiling for third-party votes this year, and I'm expecting closer to 1%.

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Jonathan's avatar

Just going by past couple of presidential elections; I am hoping that you are correct; imo the lower that number is, the better for Harris

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Jonathan's avatar

By the way, what are your numbers??

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ProudNewEnglander's avatar

?? My numbers for what?

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Jonathan's avatar

The post ??

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ProudNewEnglander's avatar

You're going to need to be a lot more specific, because I have no idea what you're talking about.

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Jonathan's avatar

Your predictions?

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Jonathan's avatar

Do you believe that Trump will win the popular vote? If so, why? The post

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ProudNewEnglander's avatar

Not sure what post you're talking about, but no, I think it's very unlikely that Trump wins the popular vote. If he couldn't do it in 2016 or 2020, I really don't see how he could possibly do it this time.

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Jonathan's avatar

Do you have a prediction?

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ProudNewEnglander's avatar

Right now, I'm honestly thinking Harris 52, Trump 47.

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