Can agree with your take on the Trump voter, but I doubt very many people fitting your description are still undecided, they’re all in for Trump and probably have been since Biden was the nominee.
But for Harris, what about Haley voters? First time / infrequent voters who are still deciding whether they’re going to make the effort to actually vote? Dead-end Biden supporters who are still upset he is not the nominee (I doubt there are many of them but possible). I can think of a lot of folks who will probably end up supporting Harris who may not be ready yet to admit it, but still don’t see those people for Trump.
Considering Trump's grew his 2020 vote by nearly 18% from 2016, I'm not at all persuaded that he's the third-place option to the couch for significant numbers of undecideds.
But in 2020 he was not a convicted felon, he had not attempted a coup, he was not responsible for the end of Roe v Wade. Trump picking up votes from 2016 makes sense when we look back at it. Plenty of people who didn’t vote for him in 2016 saw what he did and liked it, so wanted to keep him as president. Fortunately, more people were turned off by what he did. There’s also the incumbency factor, which may be over stated but was probably responsible for some of that gain.
But what has he done since that is going to attract new voters? Potentially Dobbs could be rewarded, but considering how far away Republicans are running from abortion that seems highly unlikely. Folks who miss the Trump economy, sure, but as I said I think they’re already for him.
Do you know if there is any analysis on the composition of undecided voters? I strongly suspect the demographics would favor Harris but admit I haven’t seen any data.
I'm not aware of any expert analysis on the composition of undecided voters. Aside from focus groups, I suspect it's a guessing game just like poll modeling generally.
Considering the incumbency factor, the cult of personality cementing itself and COVID not really being blamed on him (since it was a huge global issue) I’m not surprised he picked up votes compared to 2016
Of course, Biden grew Hillary's 2016 raw vote total proportionally 31% more than Trump grew his, despite starting from a higher base. So thinking Trump's the first choice isn't a strong bet, either.
Here is a Republican pollster who tried to asked when ( ealry, couple weeks, couple days, day of election) LV decided on their candidate. Grain of salt but now is the time Harris can make her case to those that have positive approval of her. Trump’s largest cohort are voters that decide on the day of the election.
That is why i think right now a lot of R sponsored polls are coming out now to try to flood the field with a false IMO narrative that Trump has momentum. People that have a favorable opinion of Harris are deciding now and these polls and stories are trying to blunt that with the undecided voters.
I've always assumed the Haley vote would ultimately break toward Trump even if Harris got a decent percentage of them, but it's a deceiving metric because it's unclear how many of the Haley voters were just Democrats and left-tilting independents trolling Trump. As for your other groups, it's hard for me to reconcile statistically significant numbers of voters who still haven't seen enough to disqualify Trump but will see enough in the next 25 days.
It's always been a reasonable thesis that people would head to the polls and the gravity of the situation would become real to them, rendering them incapable of filling in that circle for Trump. But since that didn't happen in the past and his tactics have been normalized for nearly a decade, it's even tougher to imagine late-breaking voters having crises of conscience preventing them from voting for him this time.
I feel like I’ve seen an analysis showing no appreciable difference in Haley votes in open vs closed primaries which would indicate that the effect of trolling is minimal but it’s been months so not sure where. But agree with Henrick’s comment above that for a lot of undecided voters it’s going to be Harris or no vote. But again, will admit that is not based on any actual data
IIRC you’re correct about there being little material difference between closed and open for Haley numbers
Now, I think that Harris winning 40% of Haley supporters is probably on the bullish side, but even 20-25% of them flipping would be a major problem for Trump considering he generally trails with Indies in most polls, too. Only question is how much the electorate Is wind up being and that’s what’s very hard to properly model
I hadn't even considered dead-end Biden voters. You expressed skepticism of there being many, and I'd see your bet and raise it to... pretty much zero. Interesting thought though
Haha yeah, I was just remembering the conversations on DK when following the announcement Biden wouldn’t run and there were quite a few folks upset, saying they wouldn’t vote for his replacement, etc. I’m sure the vast majority of folks will end up voting for Harris, but I could see some holding out in polling. Enough to actually affect the polls? Probably not. But at the same time they seem just as, if not more, likely than someone who hasn’t made up their mind on Trump. I mean there’s at least a grudge for motivation there. The only reason I can’t think for having an unformed opinion on Trump is a potato brain.
Not many, but in a really close race, just a few thousand in a state like NC could make a difference. And I could definitely imagine some people who were cool with voting for an old white man but have to bring themselves to vote for a Black woman.
Can agree with your take on the Trump voter, but I doubt very many people fitting your description are still undecided, they’re all in for Trump and probably have been since Biden was the nominee.
But for Harris, what about Haley voters? First time / infrequent voters who are still deciding whether they’re going to make the effort to actually vote? Dead-end Biden supporters who are still upset he is not the nominee (I doubt there are many of them but possible). I can think of a lot of folks who will probably end up supporting Harris who may not be ready yet to admit it, but still don’t see those people for Trump.
I know focus groups are unscientific but this seems to be what both Longwell and Luntz’s work suggests.
And that for most undecideds it’s a question of Harris or the couch, rather than Harris or Trump
Considering Trump's grew his 2020 vote by nearly 18% from 2016, I'm not at all persuaded that he's the third-place option to the couch for significant numbers of undecideds.
But in 2020 he was not a convicted felon, he had not attempted a coup, he was not responsible for the end of Roe v Wade. Trump picking up votes from 2016 makes sense when we look back at it. Plenty of people who didn’t vote for him in 2016 saw what he did and liked it, so wanted to keep him as president. Fortunately, more people were turned off by what he did. There’s also the incumbency factor, which may be over stated but was probably responsible for some of that gain.
But what has he done since that is going to attract new voters? Potentially Dobbs could be rewarded, but considering how far away Republicans are running from abortion that seems highly unlikely. Folks who miss the Trump economy, sure, but as I said I think they’re already for him.
Do you know if there is any analysis on the composition of undecided voters? I strongly suspect the demographics would favor Harris but admit I haven’t seen any data.
I'm not aware of any expert analysis on the composition of undecided voters. Aside from focus groups, I suspect it's a guessing game just like poll modeling generally.
Considering the incumbency factor, the cult of personality cementing itself and COVID not really being blamed on him (since it was a huge global issue) I’m not surprised he picked up votes compared to 2016
Of course, Biden grew Hillary's 2016 raw vote total proportionally 31% more than Trump grew his, despite starting from a higher base. So thinking Trump's the first choice isn't a strong bet, either.
In absolute terms Biden grew Hillary's raw vote total by 37% more than Trump grew his.
Here is a Republican pollster who tried to asked when ( ealry, couple weeks, couple days, day of election) LV decided on their candidate. Grain of salt but now is the time Harris can make her case to those that have positive approval of her. Trump’s largest cohort are voters that decide on the day of the election.
https://x.com/cygnal/status/1844443830491414962
That is why i think right now a lot of R sponsored polls are coming out now to try to flood the field with a false IMO narrative that Trump has momentum. People that have a favorable opinion of Harris are deciding now and these polls and stories are trying to blunt that with the undecided voters.
I've always assumed the Haley vote would ultimately break toward Trump even if Harris got a decent percentage of them, but it's a deceiving metric because it's unclear how many of the Haley voters were just Democrats and left-tilting independents trolling Trump. As for your other groups, it's hard for me to reconcile statistically significant numbers of voters who still haven't seen enough to disqualify Trump but will see enough in the next 25 days.
It's always been a reasonable thesis that people would head to the polls and the gravity of the situation would become real to them, rendering them incapable of filling in that circle for Trump. But since that didn't happen in the past and his tactics have been normalized for nearly a decade, it's even tougher to imagine late-breaking voters having crises of conscience preventing them from voting for him this time.
I feel like I’ve seen an analysis showing no appreciable difference in Haley votes in open vs closed primaries which would indicate that the effect of trolling is minimal but it’s been months so not sure where. But agree with Henrick’s comment above that for a lot of undecided voters it’s going to be Harris or no vote. But again, will admit that is not based on any actual data
IIRC you’re correct about there being little material difference between closed and open for Haley numbers
Now, I think that Harris winning 40% of Haley supporters is probably on the bullish side, but even 20-25% of them flipping would be a major problem for Trump considering he generally trails with Indies in most polls, too. Only question is how much the electorate Is wind up being and that’s what’s very hard to properly model
That's definitely a valid thought.
I hadn't even considered dead-end Biden voters. You expressed skepticism of there being many, and I'd see your bet and raise it to... pretty much zero. Interesting thought though
Haha yeah, I was just remembering the conversations on DK when following the announcement Biden wouldn’t run and there were quite a few folks upset, saying they wouldn’t vote for his replacement, etc. I’m sure the vast majority of folks will end up voting for Harris, but I could see some holding out in polling. Enough to actually affect the polls? Probably not. But at the same time they seem just as, if not more, likely than someone who hasn’t made up their mind on Trump. I mean there’s at least a grudge for motivation there. The only reason I can’t think for having an unformed opinion on Trump is a potato brain.
Not many, but in a really close race, just a few thousand in a state like NC could make a difference. And I could definitely imagine some people who were cool with voting for an old white man but have to bring themselves to vote for a Black woman.
THAT, I think, is the bigger issue
So going back to your previous post, not zero.
Also, voters angry about support for Israel who realize Trump would hurt them and people they love here in the U.S.