I hadn't even considered dead-end Biden voters. You expressed skepticism of there being many, and I'd see your bet and raise it to... pretty much zero. Interesting thought though
Haha yeah, I was just remembering the conversations on DK when following the announcement Biden wouldn’t run and there were quite a few folks upset, saying they wouldn’t vote for his replacement, etc. I’m sure the vast majority of folks will end up voting for Harris, but I could see some holding out in polling. Enough to actually affect the polls? Probably not. But at the same time they seem just as, if not more, likely than someone who hasn’t made up their mind on Trump. I mean there’s at least a grudge for motivation there. The only reason I can’t think for having an unformed opinion on Trump is a potato brain.
Not many, but in a really close race, just a few thousand in a state like NC could make a difference. And I could definitely imagine some people who were cool with voting for an old white man but have to bring themselves to vote for a Black woman.
I hadn't even considered dead-end Biden voters. You expressed skepticism of there being many, and I'd see your bet and raise it to... pretty much zero. Interesting thought though
Haha yeah, I was just remembering the conversations on DK when following the announcement Biden wouldn’t run and there were quite a few folks upset, saying they wouldn’t vote for his replacement, etc. I’m sure the vast majority of folks will end up voting for Harris, but I could see some holding out in polling. Enough to actually affect the polls? Probably not. But at the same time they seem just as, if not more, likely than someone who hasn’t made up their mind on Trump. I mean there’s at least a grudge for motivation there. The only reason I can’t think for having an unformed opinion on Trump is a potato brain.
Not many, but in a really close race, just a few thousand in a state like NC could make a difference. And I could definitely imagine some people who were cool with voting for an old white man but have to bring themselves to vote for a Black woman.
THAT, I think, is the bigger issue
So going back to your previous post, not zero.