Considering Trump's grew his 2020 vote by nearly 18% from 2016, I'm not at all persuaded that he's the third-place option to the couch for significant numbers of undecideds.
But in 2020 he was not a convicted felon, he had not attempted a coup, he was not responsible for the end of Roe v Wade. Trump picking up votes from 2016 makes sense when we look back at it. Plenty of people who didn’t vote for him in 2016 saw what he did and liked it, so wanted to keep him as president. Fortunately, more people were turned off by what he did. There’s also the incumbency factor, which may be over stated but was probably responsible for some of that gain.
But what has he done since that is going to attract new voters? Potentially Dobbs could be rewarded, but considering how far away Republicans are running from abortion that seems highly unlikely. Folks who miss the Trump economy, sure, but as I said I think they’re already for him.
Do you know if there is any analysis on the composition of undecided voters? I strongly suspect the demographics would favor Harris but admit I haven’t seen any data.
I'm not aware of any expert analysis on the composition of undecided voters. Aside from focus groups, I suspect it's a guessing game just like poll modeling generally.
Considering the incumbency factor, the cult of personality cementing itself and COVID not really being blamed on him (since it was a huge global issue) I’m not surprised he picked up votes compared to 2016
Of course, Biden grew Hillary's 2016 raw vote total proportionally 31% more than Trump grew his, despite starting from a higher base. So thinking Trump's the first choice isn't a strong bet, either.
Here is a Republican pollster who tried to asked when ( ealry, couple weeks, couple days, day of election) LV decided on their candidate. Grain of salt but now is the time Harris can make her case to those that have positive approval of her. Trump’s largest cohort are voters that decide on the day of the election.
That is why i think right now a lot of R sponsored polls are coming out now to try to flood the field with a false IMO narrative that Trump has momentum. People that have a favorable opinion of Harris are deciding now and these polls and stories are trying to blunt that with the undecided voters.
I know focus groups are unscientific but this seems to be what both Longwell and Luntz’s work suggests.
And that for most undecideds it’s a question of Harris or the couch, rather than Harris or Trump
Considering Trump's grew his 2020 vote by nearly 18% from 2016, I'm not at all persuaded that he's the third-place option to the couch for significant numbers of undecideds.
But in 2020 he was not a convicted felon, he had not attempted a coup, he was not responsible for the end of Roe v Wade. Trump picking up votes from 2016 makes sense when we look back at it. Plenty of people who didn’t vote for him in 2016 saw what he did and liked it, so wanted to keep him as president. Fortunately, more people were turned off by what he did. There’s also the incumbency factor, which may be over stated but was probably responsible for some of that gain.
But what has he done since that is going to attract new voters? Potentially Dobbs could be rewarded, but considering how far away Republicans are running from abortion that seems highly unlikely. Folks who miss the Trump economy, sure, but as I said I think they’re already for him.
Do you know if there is any analysis on the composition of undecided voters? I strongly suspect the demographics would favor Harris but admit I haven’t seen any data.
I'm not aware of any expert analysis on the composition of undecided voters. Aside from focus groups, I suspect it's a guessing game just like poll modeling generally.
Considering the incumbency factor, the cult of personality cementing itself and COVID not really being blamed on him (since it was a huge global issue) I’m not surprised he picked up votes compared to 2016
Of course, Biden grew Hillary's 2016 raw vote total proportionally 31% more than Trump grew his, despite starting from a higher base. So thinking Trump's the first choice isn't a strong bet, either.
In absolute terms Biden grew Hillary's raw vote total by 37% more than Trump grew his.
Here is a Republican pollster who tried to asked when ( ealry, couple weeks, couple days, day of election) LV decided on their candidate. Grain of salt but now is the time Harris can make her case to those that have positive approval of her. Trump’s largest cohort are voters that decide on the day of the election.
https://x.com/cygnal/status/1844443830491414962
That is why i think right now a lot of R sponsored polls are coming out now to try to flood the field with a false IMO narrative that Trump has momentum. People that have a favorable opinion of Harris are deciding now and these polls and stories are trying to blunt that with the undecided voters.