I've always assumed the Haley vote would ultimately break toward Trump even if Harris got a decent percentage of them, but it's a deceiving metric because it's unclear how many of the Haley voters were just Democrats and left-tilting independents trolling Trump. As for your other groups, it's hard for me to reconcile statistically significant numbers of voters who still haven't seen enough to disqualify Trump but will see enough in the next 25 days.
It's always been a reasonable thesis that people would head to the polls and the gravity of the situation would become real to them, rendering them incapable of filling in that circle for Trump. But since that didn't happen in the past and his tactics have been normalized for nearly a decade, it's even tougher to imagine late-breaking voters having crises of conscience preventing them from voting for him this time.
I feel like I’ve seen an analysis showing no appreciable difference in Haley votes in open vs closed primaries which would indicate that the effect of trolling is minimal but it’s been months so not sure where. But agree with Henrick’s comment above that for a lot of undecided voters it’s going to be Harris or no vote. But again, will admit that is not based on any actual data
IIRC you’re correct about there being little material difference between closed and open for Haley numbers
Now, I think that Harris winning 40% of Haley supporters is probably on the bullish side, but even 20-25% of them flipping would be a major problem for Trump considering he generally trails with Indies in most polls, too. Only question is how much the electorate Is wind up being and that’s what’s very hard to properly model
I've always assumed the Haley vote would ultimately break toward Trump even if Harris got a decent percentage of them, but it's a deceiving metric because it's unclear how many of the Haley voters were just Democrats and left-tilting independents trolling Trump. As for your other groups, it's hard for me to reconcile statistically significant numbers of voters who still haven't seen enough to disqualify Trump but will see enough in the next 25 days.
It's always been a reasonable thesis that people would head to the polls and the gravity of the situation would become real to them, rendering them incapable of filling in that circle for Trump. But since that didn't happen in the past and his tactics have been normalized for nearly a decade, it's even tougher to imagine late-breaking voters having crises of conscience preventing them from voting for him this time.
I feel like I’ve seen an analysis showing no appreciable difference in Haley votes in open vs closed primaries which would indicate that the effect of trolling is minimal but it’s been months so not sure where. But agree with Henrick’s comment above that for a lot of undecided voters it’s going to be Harris or no vote. But again, will admit that is not based on any actual data
IIRC you’re correct about there being little material difference between closed and open for Haley numbers
Now, I think that Harris winning 40% of Haley supporters is probably on the bullish side, but even 20-25% of them flipping would be a major problem for Trump considering he generally trails with Indies in most polls, too. Only question is how much the electorate Is wind up being and that’s what’s very hard to properly model
That's definitely a valid thought.