Morning Digest: Two key supreme court races in swing states are underway
Liberals hope to expand their majority in Wisconsin and avoid falling further behind in North Carolina
Leading Off
WI Supreme Court, NC Supreme Court
Candidate lineups are now set for critical supreme court elections in a pair of the nation’s most competitive states.
In Wisconsin, the officially nonpartisan April 7 race to succeed Justice Rebecca Bradley, a conservative hardliner who announced her retirement just before Labor Day, will be a contest between two members of the state Court of Appeals with very different ideological leanings.
Progressive Chris Taylor began running against Bradley before the incumbent announced her departure, while conservatives have consolidated behind Maria Lazar, who launched her campaign in October.
No other candidates filed before the deadline passed on Tuesday, so both Taylor and Lazar will skip the Feb. 17 nonpartisan primary and head straight to the April general election for a 10-year term.
The field is also locked in North Carolina, where Democratic Justice Anita Earls and Republican state Rep. Sarah Stevens were the only contenders who filed ahead of the state’s Dec. 19 deadline. Earls and Stevens will face off on Nov. 3, though unlike in Wisconsin, their respective party affiliations will be listed on the ballot.
While neither race will determine control of either body—liberals in Wisconsin hold a 4-3 majority, while Republicans outnumber Democrats 5 to 2 in North Carolina—both elections could have a major impact in the coming years.
Progressives in Wisconsin hope to expand their majority by flipping Bradley’s seat, while conservatives want to avoid falling further into the hole. If Lazar prevails, the soonest conservatives could win back a majority would be 2028, while a Taylor victory would push that out until 2030.
Both sides will also be watching to see whether Elon Musk, whose network spent $25 million in a failed attempt to reclaim control for conservatives last year, opens his wallet again after that blowout loss.
The world’s wealthiest man initially told Bloomberg News in May that he was “going to do a lot less in the future,” though he added, “I see a reason to do political spending in the future, I will do it.” But while Musk’s subsequent falling out with Donald Trump signaled that he wouldn’t be helping Republicans anytime soon, he has since reentered the MAGA fold.
Progressives, though, may not be too broken up if Musk inserts himself into another Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Wisconsin Democrats ran ads portraying conservative candidate Brad Schimel as a Musk lackey—a narrative Musk was only happy to advance by holding a rally for Schimel during which he paid $1 million to a pair of voters.
After Schimel’s double-digit drubbing at the hands of his liberal rival, Susan Crawford, Democrats openly suggested that Musk’s involvement might have sparked a backlash, with some members of Congress even joking that they wanted him to intervene on behalf of their opponents.
In North Carolina, meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to secure a second eight-year term for Earls as part of a long-term plan to flip the court in 2028.
If Earls prevails, her party would next need to win races for two of the three GOP-held seats that will be on the ballot during the next presidential election. If Stevens wins, though, Democrats would have to sweep all three seats to regain the majority they lost in 2022.
Republicans, who spent six months trying to overturn Democratic Justice Allison Riggs’ narrow 2024 victory, also see the race as a key opportunity to secure still more power in the state. Stevens, who led the effort to pass the state’s 12-week abortion ban in 2023, launched her campaign this spring by pledging to be a “conservative voice” on the court.
Earls, for her part, disclosed Tuesday that she’d successfully undergone surgery for breast cancer over the holidays but said that she wouldn’t let her ongoing treatment change keep her from running again.
“This diagnosis is another hurdle to overcome, but let me be clear: I’m staying in the race to keep my seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court,” the justice said in a statement. “I’ve never backed down from a tough fight, and I’ll always stand up for the rights of all North Carolinians.”
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The Downballot Podcast
2026 starts off with a bang
Not only was there no shortage of election news over the holidays, we’ve already had our first elections of the new year! On our newest episode of The Downballot podcast, which marks the start of our fifth season, we get you caught up on all the top stories from the past couple of weeks, including Elise Stefanik’s shocking bailout, Tim Walz’s unexpected departure, the death of a Republican congressman from California, and special election that just barely got away from Democrats in South Carolina.
The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!
Redistricting Roundup
FL Redistricting
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a proclamation on Wednesday convening lawmakers for a special session to redraw Florida’s congressional map starting on April 20, though his plans are at odds with those of key legislative leaders.
House Speaker Daniel Perez has been adamant that the legislature would take up redistricting during its regular session, which begins on Tuesday and lasts until mid-March.
DeSantis, though, said in his proclamation that lawmakers “should wait as long as is feasible” before starting work in the hopes of receiving “further guidance from the United States Supreme Court,” which is weighing a case out of Louisiana that could eviscerate what remains of the Voting Rights Act.
To that end, Secretary of State Cord Byrd, a DeSantis appointee, also announced on Wednesday that the filing deadline for congressional candidates would be delayed from April 24 to June 12. (Florida’s primaries remain scheduled for Aug. 18.)
Last month, though, Perez told Politico that it was “inconsiderate” of DeSantis to ask that legislators, who meet for just 60 days a year and mostly have other jobs, return to the state capitol after their normal session wraps up.
“I think it’s inconsiderate of our members to say that in May, when hopefully we’re home, you’re going to have to come back to Tallahassee and take a week off or whatever you have going on with your family because certain parties didn’t want to address an issue that was before us right now in the immediate moment,” Perez said. (At the time, DeSantis had not specified when precisely he might convene a special session.)
On Monday, Perez told the Miami Herald that he had tried to speak with the governor before the start of the regular session but was, in the paper’s words, “rebuffed.” After DeSantis issued his proclamation, a Perez spokesperson would say only that the speaker was “aware” of the call.
The Herald adds that Perez also hasn’t talked with Senate President Ben Albritton, who “is expected to concur with the governor’s approach,” according to Politico.
WA Redistricting
Democratic leaders in the Washington legislature unexpectedly unveiled a constitutional amendment this week that would allow the state to redraw its congressional map in the middle of the decade if another state does so first, though they lack the necessary supermajorities to pass it this year.
Rather, House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon explained to the Olympian, the goal is “to start the conversation” and show voters that “this is what it would take for Washington to be able to help fight back against the election rigging that we’re seeing in states like Texas.”
Democrats currently have a 30-19 advantage in the state Senate and a 59-39 edge in the House. To refer an amendment to voters—which would be needed in this case because redistricting in Washington is handled by a bipartisan commission enshrined in the state constitution—Democrats would need to pick up three seats in the upper chamber and seven in the lower in November.
4Q Fundraising
MA-Sen: Seth Moulton (D): $2 million raised, $3 million cash on hand; Ed Markey (D-inc): $780,000 raised, $2.7 million cash on hand
ME-Gov: Jonathan Bush (R): $969,000 raised, additional $389,000 self-funded (reporting period covers last half of 2025; Bush launched campaign in early October); Shenna Bellows (D): $546,000 raised (in six months)
IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc): $525,000 raised
IL-08: Melissa Bean (D): $757,000 raised, $1 million cash on hand
MN-01: Jake Johnson (D): $240,000 raised
NE-02: John Cavanaugh (D): $345,000 raised, $400,000 cash on hand
NJ-07: Rebecca Bennett (D): $550,000 raised, $1.1 million cash on hand
NJ-11: Tom Malinowski (D): $1 million raised (in two months)
WI-07: Jessi Ebben (R): $300,000 raised
Governors
CA-Gov & Los Angeles, CA Mayor
Billionaire developer Rick Caruso told CNN on Tuesday that he would finally decide “within a couple weeks” what office, if any, he’ll run for this year. Caruso, who lost the 2022 race for mayor of Los Angeles to fellow Democrat Karen Bass, has spent well over a year keeping observers guessing whether he’ll seek a rematch or enter the wide-open race for governor.
Caruso will need to make up his mind sometime this winter, though he faces different deadlines for each race. Politico notes that mayoral candidates have to file by Feb. 7, while the deadline to run for governor is not until March 6.
KY-Gov
While 2026 is barely a week old, the 2027 election to replace Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is already starting to take shape.
On the Democratic side, neither former state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins, who serves as a senior adviser to Beshear, nor Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman ruled out seeking the nod to succeed the termed-out governor when contacted by the Lexington Herald Leader’s Austin Horn.
Republican Rep. James Comer, meanwhile, says he’s “very interested” in running to lead this conservative state more than a decade after his 83-vote loss to eventual winner Matt Bevin in the 2015 GOP primary. Comer, however, is in no hurry to make his plans known. The congressman, who is on a glide path to reelection this fall, instead tells Horn that he’ll “make a decision sometime around December.”
Secretary of State Michael Adams, by contrast, says he’ll make up his own mind sometime after this year’s primaries conclude on May 19.
Rep. Thomas Massie, a GOP iconoclast who faces a tough primary challenge against farmer Ed Gallrein this year, is already looking past his current campaign. The congressman, whom Donald Trump this week urged “MAGA Warriors” to defeat, said he thought he’d “be a good governor.”
ME-Gov
Former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason announced this week that he was entering the packed June 9 GOP primary for Maine’s open governorship, though he’s taking an approach that has seldom worked for Republican candidates.
“There are times that we need somebody to come in and rattle up the system. That is not this time,” Mason told the Bangor Daily News. “My value is knowing exactly how to work with Donald Trump, not to pretend to be him.”
Mason made a similar pitch back in 2018 when he campaigned to succeed termed-out Gov. Paul LePage, a hardliner who has described himself as “Trump before Trump.”
Mason had hoped that his ties to fellow Christian conservatives and his call for “an experienced, steady hand at the till” would resonate with primary voters, but Republicans had other ideas. Shawn Moody, a wealthy businessman who had the support of much of LePage’s network, beat Mason 57-23 before badly losing to Democrat Janet Mills in the fall.
Moody himself had appeared set to wage a new campaign to replace Mills, who is now termed out herself and running for the Senate, but over the weekend, he said that health issues would likely keep him from entering the race. Moody, however, didn’t quite rule out launching a late campaign in subsequent comments to the BDN, saying that he would reevaluate if he received favorable results in medical tests.
Still, Moody acknowledged that he wouldn’t have much time to collect the requisite signatures necessary to make the ballot ahead of the March 15 filing deadline. The would-be candidate told the paper, “The window’s closing.”
Many Republicans are already campaigning for the GOP nod. The field includes former healthcare executive Jonathan Bush; attorney Bobby Charles; businessmen David Jones and Ben Midgley; state Sen. James Libby; and University of Maine Trustee Owen McCarthy.
Democrats also have a busy primary. The presence of so many candidates in each contest makes it likely that ranked-choice voting will be used to determine one or both nominees, though it will take only a plurality to win the general election.
MI-Gov, MI-SoS
Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist is mulling whether to drop out of the race for Michigan’s open governorship and instead campaign for secretary of state, unnamed sources tell the Detroit News. The paper anticipates that Gilchrist will decide in the “coming days” whether to run to succeed Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who has outpaced him in polls and fundraising ahead of their Aug. 4 primary matchup.
MN-Gov
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison “will certainly” seek the Democratic nomination for governor if Sen. Amy Klobuchar doesn’t, writes Fluence Media’s Blois Olson. Ellison and other would-be candidates could be in suspense for a while, though: Olson’s sources say that Klobuchar’s eagerly awaited decision is “not imminent.”
State Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy, meanwhile, hasn’t ruled out entering the race to replace retiring Gov. Tim Walz, who defeated her in the 2018 primary. Murphy told Minnesota Public Radio on Monday that she was taking a “pause” following Walz’s surprise announcement that he was abandoning his campaign for a full term earlier that same day.
OH-Gov
Republican Gov. Mike DeWine on Wednesday endorsed businessman Vivek Ramaswamy in the race to succeed him. DeWine, who is termed out, was one of the few prominent Republicans in the state who wasn’t already backing Ramaswamy, the favorite to capture the nomination on May 5.
PA-Gov
State Sen. Doug Mastriano said Wednesday that he would not pursue a rematch against Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, the Democrat who defeated him in a 56-42 landslide in 2022 following a catastrophic effort from Mastriano.
State Treasurer Stacy Garrity remains the only serious Republican running to deny Shapiro a second term.
House
CA-17
Ethan Agarwal, a Democrat whom the New York Times’ Theodore Schleifer unceremoniously describes as a “little-known start-up founder who has been waging a bid for governor that has failed to gain traction,” nonetheless says that he’s interested in waging an intraparty challenge to Rep. Ro Khanna in California’s safely blue 17th District.
But while Schleifer reports that Silicon Valley executives are hoping to recruit a candidate to take on Khanna, who has alienated them by calling for a special state tax on billionaires, Agarwal wasn’t their first choice.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan says that he was contacted by “significant leaders in the tech industry,” but that he’s not going to run against Khanna. Schleifer adds that the congressman’s critics made an unsuccessful effort to convince venture capitalist Eric Jones, who is challenging Rep. Mike Thompson in the 4th District, to switch races.
IL-09
Retiring Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky endorsed Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss on Wednesday in the March 17 Democratic primary for her safely blue 9th District. Biss is one of 17 Democrats who have qualified for the ballot.
MD-05
Rep. Steny Hoyer, who spent two decades as the number-two Democrat in the House, told the Washington Post in a piece published on Wednesday night that he would not seek reelection this year to the Maryland constituency he’s held since 1981.
“At this young age, it’s probably premature,” Hoyer, 86, joked about his decision to retire. The congressman, though, turned more serious as he continued, “I did not want to be one of those members who clearly stayed, outstayed his or her ability to do the job.”
Hoyer’s 5th District, which includes several communities in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., favored Kamala Harris 66-32 in 2024. Candidates have until Feb. 24 to file for the June 23 primary.
ME-02
State Sen. Joe Baldacci will announce Monday whether he’ll run to succeed retiring Rep. Jared Golden, a fellow Democrat, in Maine’s 2nd District, his team tells NEWS CENTER Maine. Just before the new year, NOTUS reported that Baldacci would enter the race to defend this conservative constituency, though he did not confirm that he’d made a decision.
NY-07
New York Assemblymember Claire Valdez announced Thursday morning that she would run for the safely blue 7th District that Rep. Nydia Velazquez is retiring from.
The New York Times reports that New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani called for Valdez, who is a fellow member of the Democratic Socialists of America, to run, and that both he and the local DSA branch are “widely expected” to back her. City & State adds that this support led New York City Council Member Tiffany Caban, who is also aligned with the DSA, to decide against running.
Valdez faces Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the June 23 Democratic primary.
NY-17
Former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney tells Axios he’s decided not to enter the busy Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who narrowly unseated Maloney in a 2022 upset in New York’s 17th District.
NY-21
Republican Marc Molinaro is reportedly interested in returning to the House, but in a different—and far redder—district than the one he lost in 2024.
Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar, whose organization usually supports GOP candidates, tells the New York Post that Molinaro contacted him about a possible bid to replace retiring Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik in New York’s 21st District. Molinaro, who became head of the Federal Transit Administration after losing the neighboring 19th District to Democrat Josh Riley, has not said anything publicly about a comeback.
Donald Trump carried Stefanik’s constituency 60-39 on the same night that he narrowly lost the 19th District 50-49. Businessman Anthony Constantino and Assemblymember Robert Smullen are currently seeking the GOP nod to replace Stefanik, who last month said she wouldn’t run for any office as she abruptly abandoned her campaign for governor.
TX-09
An outside group called Veterans Duty Fund has booked $250,000 in commercials to promote Army veteran Alex Mealer in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas’ 9th District, journalist Brad Johnson reports.
Johnson adds that this outlay on behalf of Mealer, who narrowly lost the 2022 election to lead populous Harris County, represents most of the ad spending in this race thus far.
Mealer is one of nine Republicans campaigning for a radically gerrymandered constituency that would have backed Donald Trump 59-40 in 2024. The field also includes state Rep. Briscoe Cain, who has Gov. Greg Abbott’s endorsement; San Jacinto College Trustee Dan Mims; and Steve Stockman, a twice-over former congressman and convicted criminal.
Six Democrats are campaigning here, among them retired astronaut Terry Virts, who has attracted the most attention.
WY-AL
Billionaire Reid Rasner announced Wednesday that he would enter the race to succeed Rep. Harriet Hageman, a fellow Republican who is running for Wyoming’s open Senate seat.
Rasner, who would be the first gay person to represent the state in Congress, spent $1 million in 2024 on a no-hope primary campaign against Sen. John Barrasso, losing 67-24. Rasner attracted considerably more notice the next year when he tried to buy the social media giant TikTok, but he paused that effort last summer.
Rasner joins Secretary of State Chuck Gray, who is one of the most notorious election deniers in the state, in the Aug. 18 primary. The GOP nominee will be the heavy favorite in a state that Donald Trump carried 72-26.
Poll Pile
AL-Sen (R): The Alabama Poll: Steve Marshall: 30, Barry Moore: 12, Jared Hudson: 8, Rodney Walker: 3, Morgan Murphy: 1, undecided: 46. The Alabama Poll is a subscriber-funded survey run by Michael Lowry, a longtime state GOP insider.
Editor’s note: This Digest incorrectly described Rocky Adkins as the current minority leader of the Kentucky state House; he is the former minority leader.
We also incorrectly identified Cynthia Lummis as the Republican who holds Wyoming’s at-large House seat. Lummis is retiring from the Senate, and Rep. Harriet Hageman is running to succeed her.
https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/01/stacey-abrams-rules-out-2026-bid-for-georgia-governor/
GA-Gov: Stacey Abrams will not make a third run
IA-Gov: Rob Sand raised $9.5 million last year, has $13.2 million on hand. Got donations from registered REPUBLICANS in 98/99 counties.