Two Midwest conservatives set to bow out ahead of tough reelection fights

The news follows major victories for Democrats in both states

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) (credit: Joni Ernst Facebook)

Two conservative incumbents in the Midwest who were facing major battles for reelection next year are set to retire.

On Friday morning, CBS News reported that Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst "has told confidantes she plans to reveal next week that she won't seek reelection in 2026."

Soon after, Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley said she would not run for another 10-year term in April.

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Ernst's reported retirement comes just days after Democrat Catelin Drey flipped a deep-red seat in the Iowa state Senate to break the GOP's supermajority in the chamber. Her win marked Iowa Democrats' fourth overperformance of more than 20 points in four special elections this year.

Four prominent Democrats were already seeking the nomination to take on Ernst: Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris, military veteran Nathan Sage, state Rep. Josh Turek, and state Sen. Zach Wahls. The unusually high level of interest suggests that Democrats sensed Ernst was vulnerable despite Iowa's shift to the right in recent years.

Now Republicans, who just last month reportedly pressed Ernst to run again, will likely have to find a replacement. CNN reported on Friday that Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is a favorite of national GOP groups, was preparing to run in Ernst's stead, but there's no guarantee that she'd emerge as the winner of next year's primary.

Bradley's departure in Wisconsin likewise means conservatives will need a new candidate, and they, too, could face a messy primary. Liberals, by contrast, have already united around Court of Appeals Judge Chris Taylor, who has eclipsed fundraising records since launching her bid in May.

Bradley, meanwhile, had raised nothing for her campaign. And ever since liberals regained control of the court in 2023 for the first time in 15 years, she's had repeated public meltdowns over the fact that she and fellow conservatives are no longer able to get their way. Bradley echoed her past complaints in a statement explaining her retirement.

"For years I have warned that under the control of judicial activists, the court will make itself more powerful than the legislature, more powerful than the governor," she said. "That warning went unheeded, and Wisconsin has seen only the beginning of what is an alarming shift from thoughtful, principled judicial service toward bitter partisanship, personal attacks, and political gamesmanship that have no place in court."

Following another progressive victory in a pivotal Supreme Court race earlier this year, liberals have ensured that the soonest conservatives can take back control would be 2028. If Taylor wins the battle for Bradley's seat, that date would get pushed out to 2030.