Iowa Democrats win massive upset to break GOP supermajority
Catelin Drey's victory may portend more good news for Democrats next year
Iowa Democrat Catelin Drey won a major upset on Tuesday night, flipping a deep-red seat in the state Senate and breaking the GOP's supermajority in the chamber.
Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch by a wide 55-45 margin in a district Donald Trump carried by 11 points last year.
It's the second conservative district that Iowa Republicans have lost in the legislature this year, and the results will further buoy Democratic hopes for similar victories in contests for governor and the U.S. Senate in 2026.
The most immediate impact will be felt right away. Drey's defeat of Republican Christopher Prosch, following a shock win by Democrat Mike Zimmer in January, chisels the GOP's advantage in the Iowa Senate down to 33-17.
Crucially, that means Gov. Kim Reynolds will no longer be able to rely solely on the support of fellow Republicans to confirm her picks for state cabinet posts, since nominees must be confirmed by two-thirds of the Senate.
But the outcome may say even more about the broader political environment in Iowa. In three prior special elections in the Hawkeye State this year (including Zimmer's), Democrats have run far ahead of last year's presidential results.
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Drey's showing in western Iowa's 1st District continues that streak. The district she just flipped favored Trump by an intimidating 55-44 spread in 2024, according to calculations by The Downballot, and backed Republican Rocky De Witt by a similar 55-45 spread when the seat was last up for election in 2022.
De Witt's death in June, though, opened a pathway for Democrats to reclaim the district, which they'd narrowly won under slightly different lines in 2018. It was an opportunity that Drey and Iowa Democrats were determined to make the most of.
Interest in the race was uncommonly high—and one-sided. Drey, a progressive organizer and marketing firm employee, raised more than $160,000 as of mid-August, dwarfing the $20,000 Prosch took in during that same timeframe.
The Iowa Republican Party tried to bail him out by spending $160,000 on his behalf, but Drey still retained the edge because the state Democratic Party devoted almost $100,000 to her campaign. (Final figures in all cases are almost certainly higher, but no disclosures were required in the final 10 days of the race.)
Republicans pulled from their traditional playbook and sought to paint Drey as out of step with the district. As Laura Belin at Bleeding Heartland highlighted, Prosch ran ads showing an old picture of her sporting pink hair, saying she had "kooky ideas" and falsely claiming she backs "open borders."
But Drey clapped right back.
"I think I looked great with pink hair, but the upkeep was exhausting," she said in a response ad. "My 'kooky ideas' are fully funding our public schools, making housing and child care more affordable, and putting more money back in the pockets of working Iowans."
Democrats in Iowa and across the country exulted in Drey's triumph.
"Catelin's agenda of fully funding public schools, affordable childcare and housing, and putting money in the pockets of working Iowans is a clear rejection of the Republican agenda led by Kim Reynolds and the Senate Republicans that have failed Iowans," said state Senate Minority Leader Janice Weiner.
"As Trump and Republicans wreck the economy and erode democracy with power-grabbing schemes, Democrats' special election wins should send a flashing warning to the GOP: voters are rejecting the failing MAGA agenda and leaving Republican candidates in the dust," said Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
"Iowans are seeing Republicans for who they are: self-serving liars who will throw their constituents under the bus to rubber stamp Donald Trump's disastrous agenda — and they’re ready for change," added Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin.
Notably, a trio of prominent Democrats vying to take on Republican Sen. Joni Ernst next year—Zach Wahls, Nathan Sage, and Josh Turek—all traveled to Sioux City to rally support for Drey. The three now have even greater reason to think they could do next year what Drey just did on Tuesday night.
Correction: This piece originally stated that the Iowa Senate must confirm judicial picks. The Senate does not play a role in judicial nominations.
This is bad news. If these massive Democratic overperformances continue, I’m gonna run out of celebratory whisky.
I would have been thrilled winning by even just a squeaker to break their super-majority.
But winning by 11 points !? WOW! Holy Cow!