In honor of the tradition in the Swing State Project days of posting the "Another One Bites the Dust" video every time the Democrats flipped a seat in 2006 and 2008: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY0WxgSXdEE
Great news and encouraging trend, but color me suspicious: I don't think the Trump/MAGA/GOP operatives have invested in rigging these special elections, instead holding their fire for when it's all on the line in November general elections. The results bear this out - though there may be other causal factors. But to ignore the vulnerabilities to vote count manipulation - just because Trump, baselessly, made that HIS cause - is to fall straight into the trap he laid. Remember, Trump's consistent m.o. is PROJECTION.
He hasn't done so yet but I think we're underrating the possibility that he deploys the national guard to Cleveland, Atlanta, Detroit, Houston, Austin, Dallas, and Charlotte on election day and we end up with like 30% of typical turnout and lose all the Senate races or something like that.
Not yet, but I'm not at all sure that there are enough safeguards in place to stop them if/when the need arises.
We've watched him strong arm powerful law firms, universities, and corporations -- is it inconceivable that he could apply some of the same strong-arm tactics to voting equipment vendors like ES&S and/or their satellite contractors, not to mention supportive election administrators? When you're dealing with a "win whatever it takes" actor -- which we clearly are -- it pays to be prepared for tactics that one would have thought beyond the pale.
As for "reality," how many here, a year ago, would have dismissed what is playing out now as "not reality"?
Well, thank God, I do have a modest supply of Stone Arrogant Bastard Ale on hand. The brewery’s description of their brew is priceless (as is the ale itself):
"We believe that pandering to the lowest common denominator represents the height of tyranny—a virtual form of keeping the consumer barefoot, stupid & led by the nose social media. Brought forth upon an unsuspecting public in 1997, Arrogant Bastard Ale openly challenged the tyrannical overlords who were brazenly attempting to keep the people chained in the shackles of poor taste. One glance around and it’s glaringly obvious: they’re winning...as of now. Yet we will not stop. Ever. Since the very beginning, Arrogant Bastard Ale has reveled in its unprecedented and uncompromising celebration of intensity. There have been many nods to Arrogant Bastard Ale…even outright attempts to copy it… but only one can ever embody the true nature of Liquid Arrogance!
FYI The State Senate in Iowa has nothing to do with the appointment of trial court Judges in Iowa. A committee of local attorneys (elected by other attorneys) and citizens (appointed by the governor) interview judicial applicants, and submit 2-3 names to the Governor, who then appoints one of the recommended persons to be the Judge. The legislature has no involvement in the process. The appointed Judge then stand for a retention election at the next general election, and then every 8 years. The the two appellate courts, the same process is used with a statewide committee.
Gov Kim Reynolds put her thumb on the scale for judicial nominations when the original composition of the Iowa Supreme Court shot down her abortion ban. So she, along with her compliant minions in the legislature, changed it to make the SCOIA more partisan (or make it easier for her to pick partisan judges). And when that happened, the court allowed that 6 week abortion ban to go through.
I would like it if Iowa did both. A Governor Sand would be a check against a GOP majority legislature, ditto for the Dem Senate candidate on the federal level.
Make my day! I've been hoping for something good and here it comes... several wins for Democrats; Iowa, and in Md, Pa and Utah several important judicial victories. I love it when Trump gets slapped in the face and kicked in the Ass !!! Gotta keep it going.......
No offense but… they’ve been the party of the working class, the underdog, for awhile. They’ve made mistakes,for sure, but over all they’ve always stood for making things better for working taxpayers over corporations. Especially working moms. The GOP backed Roberts court is the most pro-corporation SCOTUS in history, made possible by so called “conservatives” like McConnell. I’m always curious to learn why people believe otherwise? At least, before this. 🙂
The Democrats have been the party of the working class. They were more the party of the working class under Biden than they had been in years. And the voting public didn't like it. They completely threw the Dems out of office. It really isn't that simple.
Biden was the candidate of "Tell everyone to take off their masks and snort Covid in the middle of an ongoing pandemic, refuse to implement any OSHA regulations and spread disease in hospitals".
This is anti-working-class politics. We need infection control.
Hm. Not sure where you got this from but respectfully, it’s not true. The opposite is. Biden was a President. That meant he HAD to represent the entire nation (Oath of office). Governors controlled the COVID policies for their States, some Blue, some Red.Biden mandated Masks and Covid vaccinations where he had the power too, to ensure public safety, if it was under Fed control. (So, Military, VA etc) but disinformation via anti vax grifters, with political goals, often derailed the national outreach and people voted against their own best interests. We live in a free society, with free speech, so disinformation campaigns played an outsized role during his re-election bid, especially since private companies refused to stop the flow of bad information. Biden did a lot to accelerate the end of COVID as a pandemic, by providing vaccinations, funding the science and working community outreach… but you can only lead a horse to water. If Americans refused the vaccines he wouldn’t force them. Nor should he. They did workarounds.
I’m genuinely surprised to hear your take on this, since Biden’s admin was singularly responsible for not only gaining control of the pandemic, but righting the economic ship that lead us to be the envy of the world shortly after.
People can be blind… and they were in 2024. But at this point, it’s obvious that Trump isn’t helping the economy, nor did he really, then. Most of Covid he spent in denial or suppressing the data, so he wouldn’t look bad, So… who else does that leave? It was actually Biden’s work… even if people bought into bad press and lies about it.
He made some mistakes in regard to COVID, but they were just mistakes, not anti-worker, and as Egghead said, he was under a lot of pressure to pretend the pandemic was over when it was not, and he did a hell of a lot of good and certainly meant well. I was apoplectic at his recommendation for people to take their masks off and have large gatherings during a wave, but it feels really weird to read this kind of criticism so long after the fact with years of perspective intervening.
Tipped, but it's way more complicated than that. Non-rich Americans always do better during Democratic administrations, but the Democrats are not at all solely the party of workers. Rich people and big businesses do just a little less well under Democratic than Republican administrations, and the Democratic Party has not been that social democratic-adjacent since Johnson.
Yes, but not that complicated when considering Congresses massive malfunctioning, derailing and watering down many of their ideas. Think about what it means (practically speaking) for McConnell to have blocked any legislation that “helped Obama”. It effectively broke Congress by immediately defeating its main purpose…compromise. Compromise is key to Democracy. Also, Dems have to work with industry (or corporations) to implement policies and ensure it actually helps Workers. Take, for example,the Affordable Care Act. Dems fought for this for years. They created the structure and coordinated with Big Insurance, the GOP not so much lol. It may seem like playing both sides by Dems, but how else can they get ideas in the mainstream? Especially with GOP control thwarting things. People seem confused, but progressive policies like the ACA have been more the purview of Dems all along. The GOP has always leaned toward privatization, which is horrible for the ordinary citizen, but good for profiting a few tycoons.
Can you think of one proposal that truly helps the working class, that’s in front of the GOP lead congress now?? I sure can’t.
Of course not, and it's abundantly clear that Democrats are much better for workers than Republicans, but that's not the question when the claim is that "The Democrats have been the party of the working class." You can't convince me that Obama bailing out the banksters but leaving most bankrupt homeowners to lose their homes was a pro-worker policy or that Clinton supporting instead of vetoing welfare repeal and Glass-Steagall repeal were pro-worker policies.
I know that myth has been around awhile, from the ground level (and I was there) it sure felt like Onamas fault. But first look at the rollbacks on regulation Republicans championed, which allowed the abuse. Then look up TARP. That was the “bailing out the bankers” policy Bush put in place in 2009 just before leaving office. Obama acted under a law put in place by Republicans. To his credit (which he usually never gets) he reduced the 700 billion first assigned to rescue them via the Dodd Frank act. He used less than needed, but managed to shore up the failing banks, because not doing so would have resulted in another Depression (affecting the World as well). The Obama Admin used the remaining funds from TARP to rescue the auto industry. By the time he was finished, America made $$, not lost it. They generated a net profit. I agree that it’s not how most Homeowners saw it…. But the real culprit to the Sub Mtg crisis was deregulstion, a whole host of bad lending practices and overly risky adjustable mtgs etc. I assure you, with Elizabeth Warren at the helm, that level of deregulation was NOT Dem policy.
It is that simple if you don't have a global inflation and a open border simultaneously. And we failed to pass anything, a public option, BBB or PRO act
We had far, far less inflation compared to the rest of the world. It’s often been lower, like our gas prices. Frankly, the rest of the world wonders why Americans complained so damn much then. Also Obama and Biden deported more people, they just did so legally, never deported actual citizens or green card holders etc and tried to do it humanely (both parties need major improvement there) but … we’ve never had “open boarders” under any President. That’s delusional.
It’s fucked up because Americans didn’t pay attention and they voted for an idiot. Dems were screaming from the rooftops about Trumps dangerous… everything. In fact, it was right in front of their eyes the whole time! Go ask Voters why they didn’t listen. It wasn’t for lack of trying, or good policy, by Dems.
I’m not saying I loved everything Biden did (or didn’t) do… yet blaming Dems is like a “thing” right now, when the entire time they kept trying to stave off an Authoritarian take over. One side cheated with abandon and gave zero fucks who it hurt! I just wish people would give the real Devil it’s due….at least Dems actually care about the Constitution.
It was fascinating, in an avant-garde kind of way. They should've gone all in on "my opponent is an extraterrestrial who will raise your taxes", something Hunter S. Thompson would've used in Aspen.
I’ve been waiting all night to find out the results! (Former Iowan here.) I thought she had a chance to squeak out a win, but I never expected that margin of victory. That’s the part of the state the infamous Steve King came from!
and a 20 point swing from '22; Trump won by 11 pts. Yes it was small election, but a 20 point swing is considered a "landslide" in election world; Republicans are already poo-pooing it. Just wait till tomorrow and Fox News' anomaly bs; why do you think Rs are desperately scrambling for redistricting , can you just hear the whining tomorrow from Trump and a three page tweet- blah blah blah
Looking at these numbers, Texas just did a dummymander. Republicans need R+20 districts to be safe, and they eliminated all of them.
If we're getting swings ranging from d+10 to d+20, there are not going to be very many Republican districts left in the US. I'd expect them to get about 80 seats out of 435 next time.
This IA Dem win was not a massive upset - or even an upset at all. Definitionally, an upset is when someone wins something where expectations were against them going in, and the Dem winning was broadly the expected outcome.
That's being a little pedantic, but it illustrates a good point.
In the earlier wins and near win in Eastern Iowa, you could have argued that it was only because the Republicans were caught napping. Not here. Everyone knew the seat would be competitive and both sides invested heavily, to almost as large of a Dem overperformance.
And another one!
In honor of the tradition in the Swing State Project days of posting the "Another One Bites the Dust" video every time the Democrats flipped a seat in 2006 and 2008: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY0WxgSXdEE
Great news and encouraging trend, but color me suspicious: I don't think the Trump/MAGA/GOP operatives have invested in rigging these special elections, instead holding their fire for when it's all on the line in November general elections. The results bear this out - though there may be other causal factors. But to ignore the vulnerabilities to vote count manipulation - just because Trump, baselessly, made that HIS cause - is to fall straight into the trap he laid. Remember, Trump's consistent m.o. is PROJECTION.
Please come back to reality: Trump and Republicans are not tampering with election results and throwing ballots in the garbage.
He hasn't done so yet but I think we're underrating the possibility that he deploys the national guard to Cleveland, Atlanta, Detroit, Houston, Austin, Dallas, and Charlotte on election day and we end up with like 30% of typical turnout and lose all the Senate races or something like that.
Not yet, but I'm not at all sure that there are enough safeguards in place to stop them if/when the need arises.
We've watched him strong arm powerful law firms, universities, and corporations -- is it inconceivable that he could apply some of the same strong-arm tactics to voting equipment vendors like ES&S and/or their satellite contractors, not to mention supportive election administrators? When you're dealing with a "win whatever it takes" actor -- which we clearly are -- it pays to be prepared for tactics that one would have thought beyond the pale.
As for "reality," how many here, a year ago, would have dismissed what is playing out now as "not reality"?
This is bad news. If these massive Democratic overperformances continue, I’m gonna run out of celebratory whisky.
You might have to resort to beer so better get a case now....we're on a roll!
Well, thank God, I do have a modest supply of Stone Arrogant Bastard Ale on hand. The brewery’s description of their brew is priceless (as is the ale itself):
https://www.stonebrewing.com/beer/arrogant-bastard-ale
"We believe that pandering to the lowest common denominator represents the height of tyranny—a virtual form of keeping the consumer barefoot, stupid & led by the nose social media. Brought forth upon an unsuspecting public in 1997, Arrogant Bastard Ale openly challenged the tyrannical overlords who were brazenly attempting to keep the people chained in the shackles of poor taste. One glance around and it’s glaringly obvious: they’re winning...as of now. Yet we will not stop. Ever. Since the very beginning, Arrogant Bastard Ale has reveled in its unprecedented and uncompromising celebration of intensity. There have been many nods to Arrogant Bastard Ale…even outright attempts to copy it… but only one can ever embody the true nature of Liquid Arrogance!
"Hated By Many. Loved By Few."
I'm an effete coastal elite so I'm finishing a bottle of Chablis I opened on Saturday
Enjoy
I would have been thrilled winning by even just a squeaker to break their super-majority.
But winning by 11 points !? WOW! Holy Cow!
FYI The State Senate in Iowa has nothing to do with the appointment of trial court Judges in Iowa. A committee of local attorneys (elected by other attorneys) and citizens (appointed by the governor) interview judicial applicants, and submit 2-3 names to the Governor, who then appoints one of the recommended persons to be the Judge. The legislature has no involvement in the process. The appointed Judge then stand for a retention election at the next general election, and then every 8 years. The the two appellate courts, the same process is used with a statewide committee.
Gov Kim Reynolds put her thumb on the scale for judicial nominations when the original composition of the Iowa Supreme Court shot down her abortion ban. So she, along with her compliant minions in the legislature, changed it to make the SCOIA more partisan (or make it easier for her to pick partisan judges). And when that happened, the court allowed that 6 week abortion ban to go through.
Thank you. We've issued a correction.
May these two special elections in Iowa lead to a Governor Rob Sand and/or Democratic U.S. Senator by 11/3/2026.
Senator is much more important for the future of the country.
I would like it if Iowa did both. A Governor Sand would be a check against a GOP majority legislature, ditto for the Dem Senate candidate on the federal level.
Of course both is preferable, but no-one would disagree with that.
Make my day! I've been hoping for something good and here it comes... several wins for Democrats; Iowa, and in Md, Pa and Utah several important judicial victories. I love it when Trump gets slapped in the face and kicked in the Ass !!! Gotta keep it going.......
The Democratic Party needs to take note. Stop backing corporations and become the party of the working class.
No offense but… they’ve been the party of the working class, the underdog, for awhile. They’ve made mistakes,for sure, but over all they’ve always stood for making things better for working taxpayers over corporations. Especially working moms. The GOP backed Roberts court is the most pro-corporation SCOTUS in history, made possible by so called “conservatives” like McConnell. I’m always curious to learn why people believe otherwise? At least, before this. 🙂
The Democrats have been the party of the working class. They were more the party of the working class under Biden than they had been in years. And the voting public didn't like it. They completely threw the Dems out of office. It really isn't that simple.
Biden was the candidate of "Tell everyone to take off their masks and snort Covid in the middle of an ongoing pandemic, refuse to implement any OSHA regulations and spread disease in hospitals".
This is anti-working-class politics. We need infection control.
Lol if you think the working class were more supportive of Covid NPIs you are on cloud 9 . . .
Blocked for lying and being stupid about it.
Hm. Not sure where you got this from but respectfully, it’s not true. The opposite is. Biden was a President. That meant he HAD to represent the entire nation (Oath of office). Governors controlled the COVID policies for their States, some Blue, some Red.Biden mandated Masks and Covid vaccinations where he had the power too, to ensure public safety, if it was under Fed control. (So, Military, VA etc) but disinformation via anti vax grifters, with political goals, often derailed the national outreach and people voted against their own best interests. We live in a free society, with free speech, so disinformation campaigns played an outsized role during his re-election bid, especially since private companies refused to stop the flow of bad information. Biden did a lot to accelerate the end of COVID as a pandemic, by providing vaccinations, funding the science and working community outreach… but you can only lead a horse to water. If Americans refused the vaccines he wouldn’t force them. Nor should he. They did workarounds.
I’m genuinely surprised to hear your take on this, since Biden’s admin was singularly responsible for not only gaining control of the pandemic, but righting the economic ship that lead us to be the envy of the world shortly after.
People can be blind… and they were in 2024. But at this point, it’s obvious that Trump isn’t helping the economy, nor did he really, then. Most of Covid he spent in denial or suppressing the data, so he wouldn’t look bad, So… who else does that leave? It was actually Biden’s work… even if people bought into bad press and lies about it.
He made some mistakes in regard to COVID, but they were just mistakes, not anti-worker, and as Egghead said, he was under a lot of pressure to pretend the pandemic was over when it was not, and he did a hell of a lot of good and certainly meant well. I was apoplectic at his recommendation for people to take their masks off and have large gatherings during a wave, but it feels really weird to read this kind of criticism so long after the fact with years of perspective intervening.
Tipped, but it's way more complicated than that. Non-rich Americans always do better during Democratic administrations, but the Democrats are not at all solely the party of workers. Rich people and big businesses do just a little less well under Democratic than Republican administrations, and the Democratic Party has not been that social democratic-adjacent since Johnson.
Yes, but not that complicated when considering Congresses massive malfunctioning, derailing and watering down many of their ideas. Think about what it means (practically speaking) for McConnell to have blocked any legislation that “helped Obama”. It effectively broke Congress by immediately defeating its main purpose…compromise. Compromise is key to Democracy. Also, Dems have to work with industry (or corporations) to implement policies and ensure it actually helps Workers. Take, for example,the Affordable Care Act. Dems fought for this for years. They created the structure and coordinated with Big Insurance, the GOP not so much lol. It may seem like playing both sides by Dems, but how else can they get ideas in the mainstream? Especially with GOP control thwarting things. People seem confused, but progressive policies like the ACA have been more the purview of Dems all along. The GOP has always leaned toward privatization, which is horrible for the ordinary citizen, but good for profiting a few tycoons.
Can you think of one proposal that truly helps the working class, that’s in front of the GOP lead congress now?? I sure can’t.
Of course not, and it's abundantly clear that Democrats are much better for workers than Republicans, but that's not the question when the claim is that "The Democrats have been the party of the working class." You can't convince me that Obama bailing out the banksters but leaving most bankrupt homeowners to lose their homes was a pro-worker policy or that Clinton supporting instead of vetoing welfare repeal and Glass-Steagall repeal were pro-worker policies.
I know that myth has been around awhile, from the ground level (and I was there) it sure felt like Onamas fault. But first look at the rollbacks on regulation Republicans championed, which allowed the abuse. Then look up TARP. That was the “bailing out the bankers” policy Bush put in place in 2009 just before leaving office. Obama acted under a law put in place by Republicans. To his credit (which he usually never gets) he reduced the 700 billion first assigned to rescue them via the Dodd Frank act. He used less than needed, but managed to shore up the failing banks, because not doing so would have resulted in another Depression (affecting the World as well). The Obama Admin used the remaining funds from TARP to rescue the auto industry. By the time he was finished, America made $$, not lost it. They generated a net profit. I agree that it’s not how most Homeowners saw it…. But the real culprit to the Sub Mtg crisis was deregulstion, a whole host of bad lending practices and overly risky adjustable mtgs etc. I assure you, with Elizabeth Warren at the helm, that level of deregulation was NOT Dem policy.
I didn't say he shouldn't have prevented a depression; I said he left most bankrupt homeowners twisting in the wind. And he did.
It is that simple if you don't have a global inflation and a open border simultaneously. And we failed to pass anything, a public option, BBB or PRO act
We had far, far less inflation compared to the rest of the world. It’s often been lower, like our gas prices. Frankly, the rest of the world wonders why Americans complained so damn much then. Also Obama and Biden deported more people, they just did so legally, never deported actual citizens or green card holders etc and tried to do it humanely (both parties need major improvement there) but … we’ve never had “open boarders” under any President. That’s delusional.
Delusional or a lie, but all the logic and truth you state didn't win the day last November, and that's why everything is so fucked up!
It’s fucked up because Americans didn’t pay attention and they voted for an idiot. Dems were screaming from the rooftops about Trumps dangerous… everything. In fact, it was right in front of their eyes the whole time! Go ask Voters why they didn’t listen. It wasn’t for lack of trying, or good policy, by Dems.
I know. And the line I didn't think all those idiots would cross was to vote for a convicted felon. But they did.
I’m not saying I loved everything Biden did (or didn’t) do… yet blaming Dems is like a “thing” right now, when the entire time they kept trying to stave off an Authoritarian take over. One side cheated with abandon and gave zero fucks who it hurt! I just wish people would give the real Devil it’s due….at least Dems actually care about the Constitution.
You're preaching to the choir. I'm not someone who needed to be convinced.
That's how we do one at a time
According to Iowa Public Radio, Republicans ran a mailer depicting Catelin Drey as being abducted by extraterrestrial spacecraft.
https://www.iowapublicradio.org/ipr-news/2025-08-20/iowa-senate-district-1-candidates-special-election
Republicans were already in trouble, but that mailer definitely didn't help them, to put it very mildly.
It was fascinating, in an avant-garde kind of way. They should've gone all in on "my opponent is an extraterrestrial who will raise your taxes", something Hunter S. Thompson would've used in Aspen.
It was the same "what planet is she from" image (showing an old photo of her with pink hair) that they used in their tv ad:
https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/05061260-e158-4029-91f7-0a8e1f0161f9/
I’ve been waiting all night to find out the results! (Former Iowan here.) I thought she had a chance to squeak out a win, but I never expected that margin of victory. That’s the part of the state the infamous Steve King came from!
Reading this was pure bliss. Go Dems! 😁
Love this great news! If we can take the IA Senate seat, that will definitely help!
and a 20 point swing from '22; Trump won by 11 pts. Yes it was small election, but a 20 point swing is considered a "landslide" in election world; Republicans are already poo-pooing it. Just wait till tomorrow and Fox News' anomaly bs; why do you think Rs are desperately scrambling for redistricting , can you just hear the whining tomorrow from Trump and a three page tweet- blah blah blah
Fox News won't mention it at all, I guess.
That and the Epstein files are under witness protection at Fox, aka not mentioned at all.
Looking at these numbers, Texas just did a dummymander. Republicans need R+20 districts to be safe, and they eliminated all of them.
If we're getting swings ranging from d+10 to d+20, there are not going to be very many Republican districts left in the US. I'd expect them to get about 80 seats out of 435 next time.
It's pretty naive to extrapolate a special election result that probably got 15% of registered voters at best nationwide.
The 2026 midterm electorate will probably be Dem-friendly but not as much as special election electorates.
This IA Dem win was not a massive upset - or even an upset at all. Definitionally, an upset is when someone wins something where expectations were against them going in, and the Dem winning was broadly the expected outcome.
That's being a little pedantic, but it illustrates a good point.
In the earlier wins and near win in Eastern Iowa, you could have argued that it was only because the Republicans were caught napping. Not here. Everyone knew the seat would be competitive and both sides invested heavily, to almost as large of a Dem overperformance.
At what point was it the expected outcome? Expected by whom?
I expected it ;)
I'm sure you did! :-)
I don't think this is true. I don't recall anywhere seeing anything other than "the Dem COULD win this..."
It was not the expected outcome.