Morning Digest: The top supreme court races to watch this cycle
Wisconsin makes the list yet again—but so do five other key states
State supreme courts wield vast power over our lives, making decisions that impact reproductive rights, the environment, criminal justice, voting rights, and so much more.
Yet even though a majority of states hold elections for their top courts, these races seldom get the attention they deserve.
At The Downballot, though, supreme courts are always on our minds. To help remedy this critical gap in coverage, we've put together a list of key races to watch in six different states, both this year and next.
We've organized this roster chronologically: The action starts this fall in Pennsylvania, then moves (yet again!) to Wisconsin in the spring. The remaining races will all coincide with the midterm elections in November of next year.
Rest assured, we will be following all of them closely—as well as any others that emerge—so please subscribe to our Morning Digest newsletter if you haven't already to stay on top of these crucial contests. And if you're already a subscriber, you can click the button below to support our unique work by upgrading to a paid subscription.
Pennsylvania
Democrats have enjoyed a 5-2 advantage on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court since flipping three seats on a single night a decade ago, but Republicans now have the chance to oust all three of those justices this fall.
Incumbents Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty, and David Wecht are all up for retention, meaning Pennsylvanians will be asked to vote "yes" or "no" on whether they'd like to keep each in office for another 10-year term.
Sitting justices very rarely lose retention elections, but it happened in 2005, when voters ousted Russell Nigro due to anger over pay raises for government officials that state lawmakers had passed (even though Nigro had nothing to do with them).
Expect the GOP to spend heavily to oust this trio: In a memo released earlier this year, the Republican State Leadership Committee said it's "already committed to spending seven-figures in 2025. Should all three Democrats lose, the court would be deadlocked at 2-2.
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro would in theory be able to appoint replacements, but the GOP-controlled state Senate would have to approve any of his picks. A stalemate would leave any vacant seats open until 2027, when candidates would be able to run to fill them in traditional partisan elections.
Wisconsin
Just a year after liberals successfully defended their 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, the state will hold another major election for its high court this coming April—and this time, progressives could expand their majority.
Even though the race is more than 10 months away, the field already looks set, with conservative Justice Rebecca Bradley likely to face liberal Judge Chris Taylor for a 10-year term on the bench in an officially nonpartisan election.
If Bradley prevails, conservatives could retake control as early as the spring of 2028; a Taylor victory would push that date out until 2030 at the earliest—past the next presidential election.
Arizona
Justice John Lopez, who authored last year's opinion upholding Arizona's ban on abortions that dated to the Civil War era, will be up for retention in November of 2026. No Supreme Court justice has ever lost retention in the state, but two other conservatives who signed on to Lopez's opinion earned just 58 to 59% support last year despite the absence of an organized campaign to oust them.
The opportunity, however, remains ripe. As Republicans in Pennsylvania already understand, campaigns calling for a "no" vote on retention have one critical advantage: They don't have to run an actual human candidate, with all of their attendant flaws. Instead, they can simply attack the incumbent without worrying about presenting an alternative.
Should Lopez fail to secure another six-year term, the task of picking a replacement would fall to the governor. Right now, that's Democrat Katie Hobbs, but she's up for reelection next year as well. Hobbs has had the chance to appoint just one of the court's seven members; the rest, including Lopez, were all elevated by her Republican predecessors.
Michigan
Democrats enjoy a wide 6-1 advantage on the Michigan Supreme Court—a huge turnaround from just five years ago, when Republicans held a 4-3 edge. But they'll be defending two incumbents next year: Justice Noah Hood, who was appointed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to fill a vacant GOP-held seat last month, and Chief Justice Megan Cavanagh, who was first elected in 2018. Both will be seeking eight-year terms.
Should Hood and Kavanaugh lose, Republicans could take back the court in 2028, when another pair of Democrats will be on the ballot. If the two justices hang on, though, the GOP would have to wait until 2030 at the soonest.
Elections for Michigan's top court are unique in one important respect: Candidates are chosen by the parties at conventions, but they run on the general election ballot with no partisan affiliation listed next to their names. Incumbents are also identified as "Justice of Supreme Court", which gives them an important advantage in contests where voters often know little else about the candidates.
Potential Republican contenders have yet to emerge to challenge either Democrat.
Montana
The ideological leanings of Montana's Supreme Court have always been tricky to pin down, but for many years, it's acted as an independent bulwark willing to protect abortion rights and thwart power-grabs by the Republican-dominated state legislature.
Conservatives could, however, shift the court's center of gravity to the right in a pivotal election next year for the seat held by retiring Justice Beth Baker, a moderate who's often been a swing vote.
Two trial court judges are already running to replace Baker in next year's officially nonpartisan race for an eight-year term: Amy Eddy, who was first appointed to the bench in 2015 by then-Gov. Steve Bullock, a Democrat; and Dan Wilson, who unsuccessfully ran for the Supreme Court last year with Republican support.
Eddy is likely to emerge as the consensus choice for Democrats, though given the state's red tilt, she's emphasizing her impartiality and independence. Wilson, by contrast, described himself as "a native Montanan and a conservative" when he kicked off his campaign, though it's less clear whether he'll have the right-wing lane to himself.
Two of the court's seven members are conservative hardliners, while a third justice with a more eclectic voting record was also elected with Republican backing. A victory for Wilson or another candidate like him could therefore allow conservatives to cobble together majorities on certain issues, with the ultimate goal of overturning a seminal 1999 ruling that found that the right to an abortion is protected under the state constitution.
North Carolina
After a six-month crusade by Republicans to overturn the results of last year's election for the North Carolina Supreme Court, Democrat Allison Riggs was finally certified as the winner just a few weeks ago. Now, though, her lone Democratic colleague, Anita Earls, will have to face voters in 2026 as she seeks another eight-year term.
Earls has already drawn opposition from state Rep. Sarah Stevens, who led the effort to pass the state's 12-week abortion ban in 2023 and has promised to be a "conservative voice" on the bench. While the political climate looks to favor Democrats in the coming midterms, statewide elections in North Carolina are almost always painfully close, so Earls will take nothing for granted.
The soonest Democrats could win a majority on the Supreme Court would be in 2028, when a trio of Republican seats will be on the ballot. If they can protect Earls next year, they'd need to win two of those three races to regain control. Given the brutal GOP gerrymanders protecting Republican lawmakers, retaking the Supreme Court is the only viable way for Democrats to restore equity to North Carolina's elections.
Thanks for a great, informative summary on upcoming state supreme court elections!
I am curious: Why was there no organized campaign last year to oust conservative Arizona Supreme Court justices Clint Block and Kathryn Hackett King? Seems like a huge missed opportunity!
Correction: I believe it is Chief Justice Megan Cavanagh – with a C, and no U.
Also, since we need to keep our focus on chipping away at GOP super-majorities, 2 Ohio Supreme Court Justices are up next year--Brunner, the only Democratic on the court who likely won't run again, and Hawkins, a Republican. Winning both of them would move the court to 5R, 2D--not great, but a little better.