I've been expecting more updates like yesterday but it looks like everyday is going to be random. The next three Monday updates are going to be HUGE. One thing still gives potential to massive updates: Each of the six large counties still have at least 40% of their Dem requests left.
The 390k firewall has a chance to be hit late next week, while my person firewall of 450k will probably be hit a week before Election Day. A few of the big counties have a little over half their requests in but still a lot of room to grow plus more satellite drop-off locations open for the weekend tomorrow. The medium-sized counties I talked about yesterday continue to lag behind: Erie & Westmoreland are finally starting to report in bulk but Luzerne is still way, way, WAY behind. Those three counties combined are D+32k request advantage.
Some fun news to end the update: At least one GOP mail-in ballot includes a vote for Harris, from former GOP Congressman Charlie Dent.
I got it from Joshua Smithley aka @blockedfreq on the app formerly known as Twitter. Whether he came up with it or not & how it became so popular, I don't know. My 450k isn't really based on anything.
I'm not really sure what to make of most of the early vote data we're seeing. By all accounts the GOP is pushing early/mail voting in contrast to 2020 when they discouraged it, and Dems are less dead set on early/mail voting than they were during the pandemic. But how big is the impact of these shifts? It makes it impossible to try to use the early vote data as a gauge of enthusiasm. I suppose early voting data could in some cases be an indicator of an eventual collapse in turnout in an area, but we don't seem to be seeing that anywhere.
It's really to give a sense of calm to Democrats. It's looking like 2024 mail-in ballots are going to be about 25% of 2020 turnout. The current theory is that turnout is going to be lower this year but not 2016 low. If Democrats have 450k net ballot lead (net vote lead will be higher) going into Election Day with 28% of ballots already cast, it will calm those who pay attention.
As far as GOP pushing mail-in voting, that's only been happening for the past three weeks. Democrats started with an almost 480k request lead & it has been as high as 528.3k this week. This week was the GOP's best week in requests ever & still only "won" the week by 5,145 requests. They also closed the returned gap this week...from 7.99% to 7.93%.
I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd expect indies to have the lowest return rate, because they skew so young.
I think it was Tom Bonier who did some analysis of the PA requests & he (or she or they) found that those who are requesting ballots skewed older & female this year. The bulk of the difference between 2020 & 2024 requests has been that the Under 30 crowd request rate is way, way down. I don't have specifics but it was a thread on the app formerly known as Twitter Wednesday night (I think).
And yes, the return rate in PA suggests there is an enthusiasm gap. You can also look at return rate in Detroit thus far as proof to that theory being a nationwide thing & not just a PA thing.
It's just a raw number that speculates a huge percentage of Democratic voters vote for their party and vice versa Republican(an extrapolation would be used to average in the independent vote; which it's all kind of a crapshoot); right now, I'd rather be us than them
I am concerned at how "under the radar" her campaign has been. Seen lots of Jeff Jackson ads, but none for Ms. Hunt. Heck, my retired mother (who I kid about being "mad about politics on the internet" all day) didn't even know she was Jim Hunt's daughter.
Could also see the voters who have broken sharply for Josh Stein voting GOP for LG as a "check" - not knowing much about either candidate seems likely to default to that result.
I'd say that's a true 50/50, much like the Supreme Court seat.
Harris is getting decent polling out of NC; Robinson is a clown, and Cooper is relatively popular; I figure that gives you a margin of error race and with a ground game run by the NCDP and it's coordinated campaign, you get close or actually win(basically;GOTV, GOTV, GOTV, and GOTV !)
I respectfully disagree. Given that North Carolina has only gone Democratic twice for President from 1968 onward, it would be considered somewhat of an upset if Harris pulled it off (and I hope she does).
Joshua Smithley has updated his firewall calculation (based on my understanding): Combining Democrats & 40% of Other ballots (this assumes that the Other split is 70D-30R like other elections) and comparing THAT sum to Republican ballots. That new figure is D&O+500k.
Using those parameters, the new requests advantage is D&O+608,908 and the returns advantage is D&O+323,693. We're 64.73% of the way to the new firewall.
I want to just say I disagree with this theory. I don't think that 70-30 split is a reliable metric to work with. And even if I DID agree with the theory, that firewall is 50k too low.
Thursday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.
28,390 new requests, R+524. Overall request advantage now down to D+522,690 (lowest since 10/4)
99,243 ballot returns, D+23,134. Overall ballot advantage now D+294,305. Under 100k short of the popular firewall
Total Requests:
D - 1,046,972 (58.59%)
R - 524,282 (29.34%)
O - 215,545 (12.06%)
Total - 1,786,799
Total Returns:
D - 506,320 (48.36% return rate)
R - 212,015 (40.44%)
O - 73,469 (34.09%)
Total - 791,804
Nice! That’s an increase in the Democratic "Firewall" of about 23,000 since yesterday. Slowing down since we saw 30k per day, but still strong!
I've been expecting more updates like yesterday but it looks like everyday is going to be random. The next three Monday updates are going to be HUGE. One thing still gives potential to massive updates: Each of the six large counties still have at least 40% of their Dem requests left.
The 390k firewall has a chance to be hit late next week, while my person firewall of 450k will probably be hit a week before Election Day. A few of the big counties have a little over half their requests in but still a lot of room to grow plus more satellite drop-off locations open for the weekend tomorrow. The medium-sized counties I talked about yesterday continue to lag behind: Erie & Westmoreland are finally starting to report in bulk but Luzerne is still way, way, WAY behind. Those three counties combined are D+32k request advantage.
Some fun news to end the update: At least one GOP mail-in ballot includes a vote for Harris, from former GOP Congressman Charlie Dent.
https://www.axios.com/2024/10/17/charlie-dent-2024-republicans-trump-harris
Good for Dent
On a related note, Luzerne had been resisting allowing for ballot drop boxes but finally relented on Oct. 15.
Not having drop boxes in Luzerne is self defeating for the Republicans in charge. It's one of the more populated Republican strongholds in the state
But the mail-in requests are D+11k. That's why.
But it's just stupid; and probably pisses off the Republicans in the county who use the EV\VBM systems
Where do you get the popular firewall of 390K?
I got it from Joshua Smithley aka @blockedfreq on the app formerly known as Twitter. Whether he came up with it or not & how it became so popular, I don't know. My 450k isn't really based on anything.
Xitter. (The pronunciation is left as an exercise for the reader.)
I think the correct pronunciation is Xi as in Jinping.
The firewall target in Pennsylvania has always been a bit of a moving target with uncertain magnitude.
I'm not really sure what to make of most of the early vote data we're seeing. By all accounts the GOP is pushing early/mail voting in contrast to 2020 when they discouraged it, and Dems are less dead set on early/mail voting than they were during the pandemic. But how big is the impact of these shifts? It makes it impossible to try to use the early vote data as a gauge of enthusiasm. I suppose early voting data could in some cases be an indicator of an eventual collapse in turnout in an area, but we don't seem to be seeing that anywhere.
It's really to give a sense of calm to Democrats. It's looking like 2024 mail-in ballots are going to be about 25% of 2020 turnout. The current theory is that turnout is going to be lower this year but not 2016 low. If Democrats have 450k net ballot lead (net vote lead will be higher) going into Election Day with 28% of ballots already cast, it will calm those who pay attention.
As far as GOP pushing mail-in voting, that's only been happening for the past three weeks. Democrats started with an almost 480k request lead & it has been as high as 528.3k this week. This week was the GOP's best week in requests ever & still only "won" the week by 5,145 requests. They also closed the returned gap this week...from 7.99% to 7.93%.
I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd expect indies to have the lowest return rate, because they skew so young.
I think it was Tom Bonier who did some analysis of the PA requests & he (or she or they) found that those who are requesting ballots skewed older & female this year. The bulk of the difference between 2020 & 2024 requests has been that the Under 30 crowd request rate is way, way down. I don't have specifics but it was a thread on the app formerly known as Twitter Wednesday night (I think).
And yes, the return rate in PA suggests there is an enthusiasm gap. You can also look at return rate in Detroit thus far as proof to that theory being a nationwide thing & not just a PA thing.
Any highlights from Detroit?
Just a question and thank you for the numbers.
Does the firewall include accounting for dems who may vote rep or vice versa and indies? Or is this strictly based on the total Dem share?
It's just a raw number that speculates a huge percentage of Democratic voters vote for their party and vice versa Republican(an extrapolation would be used to average in the independent vote; which it's all kind of a crapshoot); right now, I'd rather be us than them
That’s a better increase than yesterday. Good. I’m happy with where we’re at in PA, at least so far
I'm pretty certain that if we take PA and NC, we're winning this election.
PA + NC + any other swing state other than NV = Harris win
Yes. But I'd be very, very surprised if VP Harris wins NC. I just don't see it.
Think we'll win at least Gov/AG/Education, so we'll avoid the Darkest Timeline.
What about LG? Do you think Rachel Hunt pulls it off?
I am concerned at how "under the radar" her campaign has been. Seen lots of Jeff Jackson ads, but none for Ms. Hunt. Heck, my retired mother (who I kid about being "mad about politics on the internet" all day) didn't even know she was Jim Hunt's daughter.
Could also see the voters who have broken sharply for Josh Stein voting GOP for LG as a "check" - not knowing much about either candidate seems likely to default to that result.
I'd say that's a true 50/50, much like the Supreme Court seat.
Harris is getting decent polling out of NC; Robinson is a clown, and Cooper is relatively popular; I figure that gives you a margin of error race and with a ground game run by the NCDP and it's coordinated campaign, you get close or actually win(basically;GOTV, GOTV, GOTV, and GOTV !)
If we give any credence whatsoever to public polls, NC seems very close, so a win by either candidate would not be an upset.
I respectfully disagree. Given that North Carolina has only gone Democratic twice for President from 1968 onward, it would be considered somewhat of an upset if Harris pulled it off (and I hope she does).
If so, a very slight one. NC is at most Tilt-R now.
A New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found Harris winning 12% of Republicans in Pennsylvania.
https://nitter.poast.org/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1847108612839076264#m
Joshua Smithley has updated his firewall calculation (based on my understanding): Combining Democrats & 40% of Other ballots (this assumes that the Other split is 70D-30R like other elections) and comparing THAT sum to Republican ballots. That new figure is D&O+500k.
Using those parameters, the new requests advantage is D&O+608,908 and the returns advantage is D&O+323,693. We're 64.73% of the way to the new firewall.
I want to just say I disagree with this theory. I don't think that 70-30 split is a reliable metric to work with. And even if I DID agree with the theory, that firewall is 50k too low.
Honestly I’d prefer just sticking to a D+ firewall since that’s an easier number to reliably forecast than depending on the 70/30 split
My thoughts exactly.
Banking on winning indies 2:1 is sketchy. I wouldn't count on that in my math
I would think you needed to know the demographics of the indy's(then maybe you can get a better assumption)
Do you happen to know if there is a planned 'Souls to the Polls' in Pennsylvania for EV; most likely next weekend??