It's really to give a sense of calm to Democrats. It's looking like 2024 mail-in ballots are going to be about 25% of 2020 turnout. The current theory is that turnout is going to be lower this year but not 2016 low. If Democrats have 450k net ballot lead (net vote lead will be higher) going into Election Day with 28% of ballots already c…
It's really to give a sense of calm to Democrats. It's looking like 2024 mail-in ballots are going to be about 25% of 2020 turnout. The current theory is that turnout is going to be lower this year but not 2016 low. If Democrats have 450k net ballot lead (net vote lead will be higher) going into Election Day with 28% of ballots already cast, it will calm those who pay attention.
As far as GOP pushing mail-in voting, that's only been happening for the past three weeks. Democrats started with an almost 480k request lead & it has been as high as 528.3k this week. This week was the GOP's best week in requests ever & still only "won" the week by 5,145 requests. They also closed the returned gap this week...from 7.99% to 7.93%.
I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd expect indies to have the lowest return rate, because they skew so young.
I think it was Tom Bonier who did some analysis of the PA requests & he (or she or they) found that those who are requesting ballots skewed older & female this year. The bulk of the difference between 2020 & 2024 requests has been that the Under 30 crowd request rate is way, way down. I don't have specifics but it was a thread on the app formerly known as Twitter Wednesday night (I think).
And yes, the return rate in PA suggests there is an enthusiasm gap. You can also look at return rate in Detroit thus far as proof to that theory being a nationwide thing & not just a PA thing.
It's really to give a sense of calm to Democrats. It's looking like 2024 mail-in ballots are going to be about 25% of 2020 turnout. The current theory is that turnout is going to be lower this year but not 2016 low. If Democrats have 450k net ballot lead (net vote lead will be higher) going into Election Day with 28% of ballots already cast, it will calm those who pay attention.
As far as GOP pushing mail-in voting, that's only been happening for the past three weeks. Democrats started with an almost 480k request lead & it has been as high as 528.3k this week. This week was the GOP's best week in requests ever & still only "won" the week by 5,145 requests. They also closed the returned gap this week...from 7.99% to 7.93%.
I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd expect indies to have the lowest return rate, because they skew so young.
I think it was Tom Bonier who did some analysis of the PA requests & he (or she or they) found that those who are requesting ballots skewed older & female this year. The bulk of the difference between 2020 & 2024 requests has been that the Under 30 crowd request rate is way, way down. I don't have specifics but it was a thread on the app formerly known as Twitter Wednesday night (I think).
And yes, the return rate in PA suggests there is an enthusiasm gap. You can also look at return rate in Detroit thus far as proof to that theory being a nationwide thing & not just a PA thing.
Any highlights from Detroit?