I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd e…
I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd expect indies to have the lowest return rate, because they skew so young.
I think it was Tom Bonier who did some analysis of the PA requests & he (or she or they) found that those who are requesting ballots skewed older & female this year. The bulk of the difference between 2020 & 2024 requests has been that the Under 30 crowd request rate is way, way down. I don't have specifics but it was a thread on the app formerly known as Twitter Wednesday night (I think).
And yes, the return rate in PA suggests there is an enthusiasm gap. You can also look at return rate in Detroit thus far as proof to that theory being a nationwide thing & not just a PA thing.
I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd expect indies to have the lowest return rate, because they skew so young.
I think it was Tom Bonier who did some analysis of the PA requests & he (or she or they) found that those who are requesting ballots skewed older & female this year. The bulk of the difference between 2020 & 2024 requests has been that the Under 30 crowd request rate is way, way down. I don't have specifics but it was a thread on the app formerly known as Twitter Wednesday night (I think).
And yes, the return rate in PA suggests there is an enthusiasm gap. You can also look at return rate in Detroit thus far as proof to that theory being a nationwide thing & not just a PA thing.
Any highlights from Detroit?