I'm not really sure what to make of most of the early vote data we're seeing. By all accounts the GOP is pushing early/mail voting in contrast to 2020 when they discouraged it, and Dems are less dead set on early/mail voting than they were during the pandemic. But how big is the impact of these shifts? It makes it impossible to try to us…
I'm not really sure what to make of most of the early vote data we're seeing. By all accounts the GOP is pushing early/mail voting in contrast to 2020 when they discouraged it, and Dems are less dead set on early/mail voting than they were during the pandemic. But how big is the impact of these shifts? It makes it impossible to try to use the early vote data as a gauge of enthusiasm. I suppose early voting data could in some cases be an indicator of an eventual collapse in turnout in an area, but we don't seem to be seeing that anywhere.
It's really to give a sense of calm to Democrats. It's looking like 2024 mail-in ballots are going to be about 25% of 2020 turnout. The current theory is that turnout is going to be lower this year but not 2016 low. If Democrats have 450k net ballot lead (net vote lead will be higher) going into Election Day with 28% of ballots already cast, it will calm those who pay attention.
As far as GOP pushing mail-in voting, that's only been happening for the past three weeks. Democrats started with an almost 480k request lead & it has been as high as 528.3k this week. This week was the GOP's best week in requests ever & still only "won" the week by 5,145 requests. They also closed the returned gap this week...from 7.99% to 7.93%.
I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd expect indies to have the lowest return rate, because they skew so young.
I think it was Tom Bonier who did some analysis of the PA requests & he (or she or they) found that those who are requesting ballots skewed older & female this year. The bulk of the difference between 2020 & 2024 requests has been that the Under 30 crowd request rate is way, way down. I don't have specifics but it was a thread on the app formerly known as Twitter Wednesday night (I think).
And yes, the return rate in PA suggests there is an enthusiasm gap. You can also look at return rate in Detroit thus far as proof to that theory being a nationwide thing & not just a PA thing.
I'm not really sure what to make of most of the early vote data we're seeing. By all accounts the GOP is pushing early/mail voting in contrast to 2020 when they discouraged it, and Dems are less dead set on early/mail voting than they were during the pandemic. But how big is the impact of these shifts? It makes it impossible to try to use the early vote data as a gauge of enthusiasm. I suppose early voting data could in some cases be an indicator of an eventual collapse in turnout in an area, but we don't seem to be seeing that anywhere.
It's really to give a sense of calm to Democrats. It's looking like 2024 mail-in ballots are going to be about 25% of 2020 turnout. The current theory is that turnout is going to be lower this year but not 2016 low. If Democrats have 450k net ballot lead (net vote lead will be higher) going into Election Day with 28% of ballots already cast, it will calm those who pay attention.
As far as GOP pushing mail-in voting, that's only been happening for the past three weeks. Democrats started with an almost 480k request lead & it has been as high as 528.3k this week. This week was the GOP's best week in requests ever & still only "won" the week by 5,145 requests. They also closed the returned gap this week...from 7.99% to 7.93%.
I may be off base, but to me the most interesting piece of PA early voting data is the return rates. The higher Dem return rate among the people who requested ballots suggests that Dems may be more enthusiastic this year, especially since they tend to be younger than Rs and as such might be less likely to vote early all else equal. I'd expect indies to have the lowest return rate, because they skew so young.
I think it was Tom Bonier who did some analysis of the PA requests & he (or she or they) found that those who are requesting ballots skewed older & female this year. The bulk of the difference between 2020 & 2024 requests has been that the Under 30 crowd request rate is way, way down. I don't have specifics but it was a thread on the app formerly known as Twitter Wednesday night (I think).
And yes, the return rate in PA suggests there is an enthusiasm gap. You can also look at return rate in Detroit thus far as proof to that theory being a nationwide thing & not just a PA thing.
Any highlights from Detroit?