Joshua Smithley has updated his firewall calculation (based on my understanding): Combining Democrats & 40% of Other ballots (this assumes that the Other split is 70D-30R like other elections) and comparing THAT sum to Republican ballots. That new figure is D&O+500k.
Using those parameters, the new requests advantage is D&O+608,908 and th…
Joshua Smithley has updated his firewall calculation (based on my understanding): Combining Democrats & 40% of Other ballots (this assumes that the Other split is 70D-30R like other elections) and comparing THAT sum to Republican ballots. That new figure is D&O+500k.
Using those parameters, the new requests advantage is D&O+608,908 and the returns advantage is D&O+323,693. We're 64.73% of the way to the new firewall.
I want to just say I disagree with this theory. I don't think that 70-30 split is a reliable metric to work with. And even if I DID agree with the theory, that firewall is 50k too low.
Joshua Smithley has updated his firewall calculation (based on my understanding): Combining Democrats & 40% of Other ballots (this assumes that the Other split is 70D-30R like other elections) and comparing THAT sum to Republican ballots. That new figure is D&O+500k.
Using those parameters, the new requests advantage is D&O+608,908 and the returns advantage is D&O+323,693. We're 64.73% of the way to the new firewall.
I want to just say I disagree with this theory. I don't think that 70-30 split is a reliable metric to work with. And even if I DID agree with the theory, that firewall is 50k too low.
Honestly I’d prefer just sticking to a D+ firewall since that’s an easier number to reliably forecast than depending on the 70/30 split
My thoughts exactly.
Banking on winning indies 2:1 is sketchy. I wouldn't count on that in my math
I would think you needed to know the demographics of the indy's(then maybe you can get a better assumption)