Morning Digest: Get caught up on all the latest election news with The Downballot!
Some major stories broke over the holidays. We've rounded them all up.
Leading Off
After a restful end-of-year break, The Downballot’s Morning Digest is back, and we’re here to get you caught up on all the election news that broke over the holidays.
The top developments include a stunning decision by a one-time Republican rising star to abandon her campaign for governor, as well as an unexpected GOP retirement from the Senate that’s triggered a major scramble.
But we’ve also rounded up the latest stories on redistricting, ballot measures, fundraising, endorsements, campaign kickoffs, party switches, and more. It’s all just below.
And if you’d like to support our work this year as we head toward what could be the most critical midterm elections in American history, we’d love to have you join us.
4Q Fundraising
The final fundraising quarter of 2025, covering the period from Oct. 1 through Dec. 31, has come to an end, meaning federal candidates will have to file campaign finance reports with the FEC—though not for some time. Quarterly disclosures must normally be submitted by the 15th of the month, but those for the fourth quarter are not due until Jan. 31.
As per usual, though, campaigns with strong hauls are releasing numbers early, which we’ve gathered below. (Note that candidates for state and local office often file disclosures on different timetables.)
TX-Sen: James Talarico (D): $6.8 million raised
ME-Gov: Nirav Shah (D): $510,000 raised
KY-04: Ed Gallrein (R): $1.2 million raised
TX-33: Colin Allred (D): $3 million raised (includes money raised while Allred was still running for the Senate), $1.7 million cash on hand
Redistricting Roundup
MO Redistricting
Opponents of Missouri’s new Republican-drawn congressional gerrymander filed a lawsuit in state court just before Christmas arguing that the map is currently suspended.
People Not Politicians, which is leading the campaign against the new districts, submitted more than double the necessary signatures in early December to qualify a veto referendum for the ballot—a move that organizers said automatically suspends the map until a vote can be held.
Republican Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, however, said in response that the map was “officially in effect” and would only be paused if the submitted signatures pass muster. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, another Republican, has said the review process could take until July 28, which is just days before the state’s Aug. 4 primary.
MS Redistricting
A federal judge ordered the Mississippi legislature to redraw the map for its state Supreme Court districts in time for special elections to be held this November for at least two seats on the nine-member court.
District Judge Sharion Aycock, who ruled in August that the current map violates the Voting Rights Act by unlawfully diminishing the power of Black voters, said she would decide which seats will appear on the ballot after new boundaries are in place. The Secretary of State’s Office is currently appealing the summertime ruling from Aycock, an appointee of George W. Bush.
Senate
VA-Sen
Republican state Sen. Bryce Reeves ended his campaign to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Warner just before the new year, a decision he says he made because of a “serious family health matter.”
Reeves was the only notable Republican seeking to oppose Warner, who was the favorite to win another term even before Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger led the Democratic ticket to an overwhelming victory in the November elections.
WY-Sen, WY-Gov, WY-AL
Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis announced shortly before Christmas that she would not seek a second term, an unexpected decision that rapidly upended all three of Wyoming’s major statewide races.
Rep. Harriet Hageman, a far-right Republican who holds the lone U.S. House seat in this dark-red state, said the following week that she would run to replace Lummis.
Donald Trump and the hardline Club for Growth, both backers of Hageman’s successful 2022 primary campaign against then-Rep. Liz Cheney, quickly endorsed the congresswoman’s new venture. No other major Republicans have talked about taking on Hageman in the Aug. 18 primary, though that could change with almost six months to go before the May 29 candidate filing deadline.
Ambitious Republicans, however, seem far more interested in seeking to succeed Hageman in the House or in running for governor—a contest the congresswoman had mooted before Lummis retired.
Secretary of State Chuck Gray announced just before the new year that he would campaign for Hageman’s seat rather than run for governor, an office he had also been eyeing. Gray, a conspiracy theorist who has insisted the 2020 presidential election was “clearly rigged,” joined Hageman in 2024 in helping candidates affiliated with the local affiliate of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus win a majority in the state House.
Gov. Mark Gordon, a member of the old-guard GOP establishment who has repeatedly clashed with Gray and his allies, has yet to reveal his plans, but WyoFile columnist Kerry Drake speculates he could also run for the House.
Drake also believes that Gordon will not challenge a state law that imposes a limit of two consecutive terms as governor and will instead back state Sen. Eric Barlow, who announced a campaign for the post back in August.
Other Republicans are also busy evaluating their options given the sudden changes in Wyoming’s political landscape.
University of Wyoming Trustee Paul Ulrich, who didn’t rule out seeking Gordon’s job this summer, told Cowboy State Daily right before Christmas that he’d “have to take a look at the House.” House Speaker Chip Neiman, a member of the Freedom Caucus, likewise informed the outlet that he was “praying a lot” about his next steps. Other Republicans declined to comment about what could be next for them.
State Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, however, told McFarland she remains interested in running for governor. Treasurer Curt Meier and Auditor Kristi Racines, by contrast, both said they’ll seek reelection rather than campaign for another office.
Finally, billionaire businessman Reid Rasner, who had been exploring a bid for governor since the summer, now says he won’t seek the job but seems to be gearing up to run for something else.
“Stay tuned for news next week, the best is yet to come,” Rasner told Cowboy State Daily on Friday.
Governors
CO-Gov
Joe Oltmann, a far-right podcaster who recently said that Democratic elected officials “deserve to be tried for treason in military tribunals and hang,” announced after Christmas that he was joining the Republican primary for Colorado’s open governorship.
Oltmann is hoping to succeed term-limited Gov. Jared Polis, whom he identified as part of a group he labeled “treasonous traitors.” Oltmann has also proclaimed that Polis and other Jewish elected officials are “synagogue of Satan Jews [who] stick together” to keep Tina Peters, the former Mesa County clerk who was convicted of participating in a breach of her county’s election systems, in prison.
MN-Gov
Donald Trump declared at a rally not long before Christmas that election conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell “deserves to be governor of Minnesota.” Trump, however, did not explicitly say that he was endorsing Lindell in the busy Aug. 11 GOP primary for the right to take on Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, and Lindell told the Minnesota Star Tribune he viewed the remarks as a “shoutout” rather than “as an endorsement.”
NY-Gov
Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik stunned the political world just days before Christmas when she announced she was ending her campaign to take on Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul after little more than a month and would not seek reelection to Congress.
Stefanik’s departure immediately transformed Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who badly trailed her in primary polls, into the heavy favorite to capture the GOP nomination on June 23.
New York state GOP chair Ed Cox, a Stefanik ally who had predicted earlier in December that the congresswoman “will be our candidate and there will be no primary,” endorsed Blakeman hours after she dropped out. Donald Trump, who had refused to take sides between Blakeman and Stefanik, joined Cox the next day in backing a county executive he called “MAGA all the way.”
No notable Republicans have expressed interest in opposing Blakeman.
OH-Gov
Former state health director Amy Acton received an endorsement from former Sen. Sherrod Brown the week before Christmas in her campaign for Ohio’s open governorship. Neither Acton nor Brown, who is waging a comeback bid for the Senate, has any serious opposition in their respective May 5 Democratic primaries.
House
AZ-01, AZ-05
Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely announced just before Christmas that he would seek the Republican nomination for Arizona’s swingy 1st Congressional District rather than continue his bid for the safely red 5th District, both of which are open seats.
Donald Trump encouraged Feely to “run in a different district, or for a different office” in November in the same Truth Social post in which he endorsed former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb for the 5th District. Trump, though, previously backed state party chair Gina Swoboda in her campaign for the 1st District.
CA-45, CA-40
Unnamed Republicans have encouraged Republican Rep. Young Kim to run for a different congressional district rather than continue her campaign against fellow GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in California’s redrawn 40th District, Voice of OC’s Norberto Santana reported shortly before Christmas.
Santana’s sources relayed that if Calvert “keeps building momentum,” Kim could instead consider taking on Democratic Rep. Derek Tran in the 45th District. Kim’s team, however, insisted she wasn’t going to switch races, with a consultant instead telling Santana, “She’s in it to win it.”
CO-05
Army veteran Matt Cavanaugh, who launched a bid for Colorado’s conservative 5th District as an independent in October, announced right after the new year that he’d instead run in the Democratic primary.
He’ll join Jessica Killin, a fellow Army veteran and one-time chief of staff to former second gentleman Doug Emhoff, in the race to take on first-term GOP Rep. Jeff Crank. Killin raised more than $1 million during the third quarter of the year, her first in the race.
CO-08
State Treasurer Dave Young announced just before Christmas that he was exiting the June 30 Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado’s competitive 8th District, saying that a family member “has entered a serious health situation, and my focus has shifted toward caring for them.”
The Democratic field now consists of three major candidates: former state Rep. Shannon Bird, Marine veteran Evan Munsing, and state Rep. Manny Rutinel.
GA-14
Clayton Fuller, who serves four counties as district attorney for the Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit, announced right before Christmas that he would enter the upcoming special election to replace Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a fellow Republican whose resignation from Congress is set to take effect on Monday.
Fuller ran for the previous version of Georgia’s 14th District in 2020 after GOP Rep. Tom Graves retired, but he finished a distant fourth in the primary. Gov. Brian Kemp later appointed Fuller to fill the vacant district attorney’s office.
Several other Republicans are running in the special election for the dark red 14th District, which Kemp cannot schedule until Greene’s departure becomes official. Former Paulding County Commissioner Brian Stover, however, didn’t let any uncertainty over timing stop him from launching what appears to be the first TV ad of the race on New Year’s Day.
IL-09
Businessman Bruce Leon told supporters on New Year’s Eve that he would “temporarily suspend my campaign for one week,” an announcement that came just days after he initially said he had decided to exit the packed Democratic primary for Illinois’ open 9th District altogether. The local news site Evanston RoundTable notes that candidates have until Thursday to take their names off the March 17 ballot.
Leon first told the Chicago Tribune that he would drop out of the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky following what he said was pressure from AIPAC, the hawkish pro-Israel group that has sent out fundraising messages on behalf of state Rep. Laura Fine. He added that he’d been told that his presence in the race would make it harder for Fine to win the nomination for this safely blue seat.
Leon, however, told Evanston RoundTable that the reaction to the Tribune story had led him to rethink his plans to drop out. He said that “a lot of people have come out in support in the community,” adding that “we are looking at ways to retract and stay in the race if possible.”
ME-02
State Sen. Joe Baldacci has decided to run to succeed retiring Rep. Jared Golden, a fellow Democrat, in Maine’s 2nd District, NOTUS reports. Unnamed sources told the publication that Baldacci will enter the race to hold this conservative constituency sometime in January, with one saying his kickoff would take place on Jan. 12.
Baldacci did not confirm the news, however, and said he was still weighing the race, though he sounds inclined to run.
“I’m actively working on it, talking to people and putting together a winning team, but the final decision will come later next week,” Baldacci told the Portland Press Herald on Friday.
MI-04
Attorney Jessica Swartz ended her campaign to face Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga just ahead of Christmas and said she would instead run for an open Democratic seat in the state House. Swartz’s switch leaves state Sen. Sean McCann as the only major Democratic candidate running against Huizenga in Michigan’s 4th Congressional District.
MI-11
Physician Anil Kumar announced right before Christmas that he was dropping out of the Democratic primary for Michigan’s open 11th Congressional District, a reliably blue seat that Rep. Haley Stevens is giving up to run for the Senate. State Sen. Jeremy Moss and businessman Don Ufford are the main Democratic candidates competing in the Aug. 4 primary.
MS-02
Candidate filing closed on Dec. 26 for Mississippi’s March 10 primaries, and Mississippi Today has a list of contenders.
The only notable late development took place in the 2nd District, where a little-known Democrat named Pertis Williams joined attorney Evan Turnage in challenging longtime Rep. Bennie Thompson for renomination. While Williams’ entry attracted little attention, his presence on the ballot could prevent either Thompson or Turnage from winning the majority of the vote necessary to avoid a runoff on April 7.
NJ-12
New Jersey Assemblywoman Tennille McCoy filed paperwork with the FEC not long before Christmas, telling Politico she’s “like 95 percent” sure she’ll run to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, a fellow Democrat.
State Sen. Andrew Zwicker, however, announced that he’d decided not to enter the busy Democratic primary for the safely blue 12th District.
NV-03
Clark County school board member Lydia Dominguez announced on New Year’s Eve that she was dropping her bid for the GOP nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in Nevada’s competitive 3rd Congressional District. Several other Republicans are still running.
NY-12
New York City Councilman Erik Bottcher said on Dec. 22 that he was dropping out of the packed Democratic primary for the safely blue 12th District and would instead seek a seat in the state Senate.
The field to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler, however, may be about to expand again. George Conway, the former Republican attorney who reinvented himself as a vocal Donald Trump opponent, filed paperwork with the FEC that same day for a potential campaign for the Democratic nomination.
TX-08
Retired businessman Brett Jensen says he’s begun a $500,000 TV ad campaign ahead of the March 3 Republican primary for Texas’ open 8th District, per reporter Brad Johnson.
Jensen, whose campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Morgan Luttrell had previously attracted little attention, is one of six Republicans campaigning for the safely red 8th District in the northern Houston area. The frontrunner appears to be attorney Jessica Hart Steinmann, who has the support of Luttrell and Sen. Ted Cruz.
TX-09, TX-10
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has endorsed state Rep. Briscoe Cain and attorney Chris Gober, who are respectively running for the open 9th and 10th congressional districts. Last month, Donald Trump backed Gober to succeed retiring Rep. Michael McCaul in the 10th, while he’s yet to take sides in the Republican primary for the redrawn 9th.
WA-04
Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney announced the week before Christmas that she would run to succeed Rep. Dan Newhouse, a fellow Republican who is not seeking reelection in Washington’s conservative 4th District. Punchbowl News previously reported that an allied super PAC had already raised $1.5 million to aid McKinney in case the congressman didn’t seek reelection.
Ballot Measures
AK Ballot
Election officials announced on New Year’s Eve that the campaign to repeal Alaska’s unique top-four election system had submitted enough signatures to place their proposal on the ballot later this year. Voters rejected the last attempt to reinstate partisan primaries in 2024 by an extremely narrow 50.1 to 49.9 margin, a difference of just 664 votes statewide.
It’s likely, but not certain, that the new initiative will appear on the Nov. 3 general election ballot. Should the legislature adjourn on or before April 20, a vote would coincide with the state’s Aug. 18 primaries, but in 2024, lawmakers did not complete their work until mid-May.
Regardless of when the vote takes place, though, the top-four system will still be used for next year’s elections, including the packed open-seat race for governor.
Obituaries
Ben Nighthorse Campbell
Former Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, a Democrat-turned-Republican who represented Colorado in the upper chamber from 1993 until his retirement in 2005, died Dec. 30 at the age of 92.
Campbell, who was a member of the Northern Cheyenne tribe, was the first Native American to join the Senate since the 1920s when he first won election in 1992. But Campbell, who had previously served in the state legislature and the U.S. House as a Democrat, switched parties early in 1995 after the GOP took control of Congress the previous year.
Campbell easily won reelection as a Republican in 1998, but he did not seek reelection six years later after twice being hospitalized for chest pain. Democrat Ken Salazar went on to flip Campbell’s seat in 2004, and Democrats have held it ever since.
The Colorado Sun has more on Campbell’s long career with both parties in its obituary.
Poll Pile
KY-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Charles Booker: Andy Barr (R): 49, Charles Booker (D): 38; Daniel Cameron (R): 46, Booker (D): 39; Nate Morris (R): 41, Booker (D): 40. The release did not include numbers testing any other Democratic candidates.
TX-Sen (R): Pulse Decision Science for pro-Ken Paxton group: John Cornyn (inc): 38, Ken Paxton: 38, Wesley Hunt: 16.
CA-Gov (top-two primary): Civic Lens Research: Steve Hilton (R): 18, Chad Bianco (R): 14, Eric Swalwell (D): 12, Katie Porter (D): 9, Tom Steyer (D): 7, Tony Thurmond (D): 3, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 2, Xavier Becerra (D): 1, Betty Yee (D): 1.
NV-Gov (D): Change Research (D) for Alexis Hill: Aaron Ford: 48, Alexis Hill: 13.
PA-07 (D): Change Research (D): Lamont McClure: 17, Bob Brooks: 11, Carol Orbando-Derstine: 10, Ryan Crosswell: 5, undecided: 53.
TX-33 (D): GBAO (D) for Colin Allred: Colin Allred: 58, Julie Johnson (inc): 30.
Correction: This item incorrectly identified Sen. Cythnia Lummis as the person Chuck Gray is running to succeed. Gray is running for the House seat that Rep. Harriet Hageman is giving up to run for Lummis’ Senate seat.
Smokejumper Sam Forstag is reportedly set to announce a bid for Mt-1 later today:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-blue-wave-montana-first-congressional-district-sam-forstag/#
NH Sen: New poll from NHJournal/Praecones Analytics has Chris Pappas leading John Sununu 42%-36% and Scott Brown 46%-28%. It also finds Trump's approval to be the lowest ever in NH at 32% with his disapproval at 53%. https://nhjournal.com/exclusive-trump-underwater-ayotte-still-afloat-in-new-nhjournal-poll/