I can't seem to find something definitive on the last Democrat that lacked higher education, but that's probably because most governors in general *do* have some form of degree. Only Mike Kehoe in Missouri and Larry Rhoden in South Dakota do not have degrees currently out of all sitting 50 governors.
Did some further research - even in 2015, only a few Republicans had no degrees - Gary Herbert of Utah and Scott Walker of Wisconsin. Still can't find any Democrats.
She sounds like she was an incredible woman and mother, and she had an incredible son to match her heart by her side. I'm very sorry for your loss, and she definitely had a very well lived life!
DM, I am thinking of you at this time. I never met your mom but felt like I knew her a little bit through your telling me about her life. Best wishes in refocusing your life around your own needs and desires now that your role as caregiver is over. Good luck in whatever you do and wherever you live in Arizona or California.
Wonderful tribute. I send you my deepest sympathies and a salute for caring for your mother. Many adult children do not care for or about their parents.
It's not even a rumor at this point. Some longtime Minnesota reporters say it's almost confirmed and the domains were all registered a couple of days ago.
Will Klobuchar appoint Walz to the Senate seat? I hope she doesn't appoint the loser of the Minnesota Senate primary since they won't have the will of the people.
People know that I dislike Craig and support Flanagan. However, selecting the loser of their primary would be extremely controversial. It would likely be perceived as a slap in the face to voters and could trigger a deeply bitter next primary either from a centrist anti-establishment or a progressive anti-establishment candidate.
Which of these candidates is ideologically closest to Klobuchar—mainstream liberal, but neither as centrist as Craig or Phillips nor as progressive as Flanagan or Wellstone?
I think Walz has the most similar politics, but he might want to "go gently into the good night" given the impact of the events of the last year for him.
Mostly agree, though there are a couple things I would add.
Julie Blaha is likely a non-starter. While yes, she is a woman, she is an electoral liability. Not in the political lightning rod way that Ellison and Omar are (both are bon-starters IMO). Its easy to forget, but Blaha was an incredibly weak DFL performer in both of her elections, doing worse than Ellison on the sme ballot in 2022, and never being able to even pull a majority in heavily blue electorates in 2018 and 2022.
And one candidate who j believe near or at the top of the list is former Senate DFL leader Melissa Franzen prior to being redistricted out in 2022. She is seen as an after thought in the primary between Flanagan and Craig, but she is well connected, universally respected within DFL politics, and only 45 years old. Id keep an eye on her as a liberal appointment that would have little to no pushback within the party.
Blaha has a few things working against her. She is not charismatic, not photogenic, not a good campaigner, and as Auditor it is difficult to point to anything she has done.
The more inside ball, which would have only minor impact in terms of votes is that she is seen as a union stooge, and doesnt have any traits that she has successfully leveraged a counterargument to that. Her only electoral strength is the D next to her name in a blue state.
That would be a horrific thing to do. This sort of shenanigans happened in Minnesota about 40 years ago, and it absolutely decimated the DFL in the next election cycles, and Democrats didnt win the governorship for over 2 decades thereafter.
There is not a regular election in Minnesota in 2027. Therefore, it would be like it is in Ohio, where the election for Vance's old seat is taking place in 2026.
I don't dislike Klobuchar but I'd rather she stay in the senate. She's absolutely fine there. And she holds down a critical senate seat with no risk or worry, election after election after election.
Plus, 2026 is not looking like the type of cycle where we need a juggernaut like Klobuchar to hold the MN gov seat. Walz retiring is good for our chances, but any solid candidate should be able to do it.
I do not like the prospect of worrying about her senate seat in 2030, especially if it's a democratic midterm.
If she's picking her replacement, then they're probably not going to be meaningfully different from her, for good or ill.
I'd say she's decent enough as-is anyway. Minnesota is still a close state, and she's a very reliable vote for us, while very rarely being part of the problematic votes caucus. We could do better in MN, yes. But she's not a problem and in exchange we've gotten someone with near zero risk of losing reelection. It's an acceptable tradeoff to me.
I go back and forth on whether I think she should stay in the Senate or run for governor. I think she has great potential to have strong coattails and be a benefit to downballot candidates. However, Minnesota would then have two freshmen Senators. Klobuchar is currently the number 3 (or similar) democrat and ranking member of the ag committee. In Georgia, where they also had two freshmen Senators, Warnock and Ossoff aren't in Senate leadership and only lead subcommittees. The Senate runs largely on seniority so Klobuchar has a lot of leverage in bringing funding back to the state.
One thing I don't know how much weight to put towards is the safety of her Senate seat. By 2030 she'll be 70 and nearing completion of her 4th term. It's certainly plausible she would end up retiring, so having an incumbent could be helpful.
Why ugh? She will be a boon for downballot races where we all know Walz would not. She is literally the best possible candidate we have for this office in the state. She'll appoint her replacement and then that person will run in the special and then for a full term in 2030 a LA Tina Smith.
I don't see how an open seat in 2027 will be a problem in the slightest, given that Donald Trump will still be in what's left of the White House (assuming his rotting husk holds on that long).
Klobuchar running may be the best-case scenario for blocking Angie Craig from the Senate or becoming Governor. If Klobuchar doesn't run, candidates like Craig are incentivized to switch over, and she would likely win. If Flanagan switches races, Craig becomes a Senator instead.
Of course, Klobuchar could also appoint Craig as her replacement, which also seems highly possible, especially since the current Senate primary is likely to be close either way.
I'm of two minds. On the one hand, it's certainly not usual for DFL incumbents to step aside (whether through not running for reelection or through resignation) due to circumstances that Republicans (or even Dems in other states) would stick it through. Dayton didn't even have any big scandal in 2005-2006, he was just unpopular, but he didn't run that year. With Al Franken, I don't want to open this too much, just to say that circumstances would be much different if this involved a Republican. And now this; Walz is not implicated in the fraud going on at all. He's stepping aside for the good of the party and that is understandable.
But. This still does send a message to Reps that they can make bogus allegations and get people to step down, and that bothers me a lot.
They learned that lesson with a US Senator from Minnesota.
But Walz never really seemed that into a 3rd term and it appeared he was running out of obligation (and to reclaim some credibility from the ‘24 loss). With the assassinations it seemed like he was even less into the campaign. So, this circumstance is a bit different than just stepping aside b/c of the manufactured scandal.
I think Bob Brooks will not win the PA 07 primary if he can't cross 11 in polls even with the endorsements of Josh Shapiro, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, and their allies.
It's January, and he's six points behind the leader, who is sitting at a whopping 17%. I don't think the primary is going to be won with a 17-11 plurality.
"…federal candidates have to file campaign finance reports with the FEC…"
QUESTION: Are federal candidates required to include an email address for each of their donors? Or is Full Name and physical Address sufficient?
I have long advocated for ActBlue offering donors the option of NOT providing either email or cell phone when they donate. The question is whether there are any LEGAL hindrances to ActBlue implementing this option.
Federal law makes candidates have to report the name, physical address, occupation and employer of anyone contributing more than $200. There are no federal laws to my knowledge that force a business or non-profit to collect emails and phone numbers from those with who they do work/business, or laws that force political donors to disclose them to entities or candidates to whom they give money. So this is something ActBlue chooses to do on their end. Given how political fundraising, list building, advertising and marketing work, it makes no sense (from an organizational perspective, despite how much you and I may want it) to give potential donors the option of opting-out, they would be losing precious data, central to an organization like that. Unless of course the calculation is made that the amount of potential contributors walking away because that option is not available is greater than the value of potential data being lost by making it an option. I would love to be corrected by anyone with actual legal expertise.
A slight aside: It is my contention that fundraising often takes a form, and has an aggressiveness, that undermines the campaign itself.
Case in point: Kamala Harris won the debate against Trump. She crushed him! At that point, her campaign communication and its fundraising could and should have switched to portraying her as "a winner"! And yet, her fundraising continued to paint Kamala as "the underdog" in order to extract more money from panicked donors. Huge mistake!
Trump painted himself as a winner. Americans like to vote for winners.
Fully agreed. When its a couple of months out, and the frantic spam texting "donate or we're doomed!", fully ramps up, it gets quite aggravating and I'm sure many potential donors/voters feel the same way.
I feel that he might be too far left relatively for a R+8 district since he is an ACLU advocate and a Bernie bro. But he has the looks, would be a viable candidate able to fundraise and has some name recognition so the district could atleast be in play in a blue wave.
In a big enough wave, voter anger at Trump and the Republicans may make socialism unimportant to enough voters, but it certainly is not a plus in an R+ district.
It would be an interesting test to see if Bernie-style left economic populism has any play in a redder district. The district is a long shot anyway, I don't see the harm.
I'm not sure I follow that. A Democrat couldn't win in those two years but has a much better chance in a likely wave, and being too leftist might prevent a victory. But we shall see.
We don’t know if a moderate/centrist would have done better than Behn though. Single digits is pretty good given that district’s lean, redder than the Montana seat.
She did well in Nashville and wasn't too bad in rural areas; it was the super-wealthy county that hurt her, and, in truth, super-wealthy but conservative areas aren't likely to be open to affordability messages anyhow.
She was to the left of even Mamdani on police and still refused to disavow the defund the police movement. I don’t think that anyone would have won the heart of the Southern Baptist Congregation but the margins would have been closer. She did do a good job of being disciplined on her message and turning out voters.
That doesn't necessarily mean anything in the current special election climate. That said, I agree with the idea that we haven't been winning there with moderates, so why not try a different approach in a district we are unlikely to win anyway.
Several recent polls show Mamdani with positive approval nationally. Republicans may want to consider whether tying Dems to a popular figure is a smart move.
Second best former Congressman Dick name - after of course Dick Swett of NH. I liked to refer to Dick Zimmer by the nickname “Cock Room” as Zimmer is room in German and well you know the other part.
Hopefully one of these days Megan’s Law can be repealed and there can be real criminal Justice reform. Clearly Dick Zimmer was not for this kind of reform.
I really have never heard any legitimate legal case as to why sex offenders have to be listed in a registry but violent offenders do not. Sounds unconstitutional if you ask me.
Politico's Jonathan Martin on Walz-Klobuchar news:
"This doubles as an escape hatch to avoid facing a (difficult) caucus vote against Schatz, for whip and eventually leader
And it has surely crossed her mind that she could be in better VP contention as a Midwestern gov than just another senator and in that tidy, modern Democrat way where they act like Repubs of yore this represents a clean extraction of Walz for Amy and then preempts a messy primary between Craig and Flanagan by letting them each have a Sen seat
The special election for Texas state senate in the Fort Worth area is the same day as the congressional election in Houston, January 31. Any ideas on the outcome of the former? An upset by the Democrat, perhaps?
It's possible, Trump +17.5 isn't undoable in a special election, and the Democrat got 47.6% of the vote in November, and lower turnout and the elimination of the more moderate Republican may allow the Democrat to just barely be able to get a majority
The Right-Wing Justices Know Their Favorite Legal Theory Is Bunk
Now that the Supreme Court’s conservative bloc is putting the unitary executive theory to the test, its cracks are beginning to show—and its proponents are flailing.
NH is such a contradiction with its libertarian streak. They'll send Democrats to the House and Senate (as well as their EC votes) but vote for Republicans statewide.
NH isn't libertarian. The republicans elected here are either fairly traditional Neocon types or increasingly shifting towards MAGA. Basically the antithesis of libertarian. Similar story for democrats being moderate, establishment democrats.
Can anyone point at Pappas, Goodlander, Shaheen, or Hassan on our side, or Ayotte, Sununu, Brown, or Bass and tell me any of them are anywhere near an approximation of a libertarian? NH is literally the only state in New England where weed isn't legal. Yeah yeah, no sales tax or income tax, but hating new taxes isn't reserved for libertarians. Voters everywhere hate new taxes. Oregon doesn't have a sales tax but nobody is calling that state libertarian.
NH got a reputation as libertarian primarily because of the slogan on our license plates. But that's advertising, not reality.
Sununu got reelected multiple times during D-favorable midterms and presidential years. Ayotte will likely fare the same way, unless the R brand craters in NH or she does something extremely unpopular that crosses party lines.
It's not 100% sure but it'd take one hell of a wave to see that change.
NH and Vermont have created a very pro-incumbent system with the two year gubernatorial terms. This is counterintuitive, as one would expect incumbents to prefer longer terms (and maybe they still do, on a personal level). But it results in voters being asked to keep or replace a governor so shortly after electing them, before many significant changes could have happened since the last election.
Many voters are going to give a two year incumbent governor more time before considering replacing them, especially if they previously voted for that person. Then by the time four years are up, they will now have voted for this governor twice already, maybe even four times if we include primaries. At that point it's starting to become a habit on a subconscious level and voters will be less willing to switch their vote than they would have otherwise.
Governors here have to really step in it or be exceptionally unlucky to get voted out early on. That could happen to Ayotte, especially if we have a big enough wave next year, but we should hold our expectations in check.
TX-Sen: Very excited that Talarico turned in yet another stunning fundraising quarter. Wonder how Crockett did, though she only announced with less than a month left in the quarter.
Yeah, I was just posing that out of the blue but from my standpoint, I think Crockett may be behind when it comes to fundraising. Doesn't mean she doesn't have a chance but with the TX-SEN primary being on March 3rd, I don't know if she will have enough time.
I can't seem to find something definitive on the last Democrat that lacked higher education, but that's probably because most governors in general *do* have some form of degree. Only Mike Kehoe in Missouri and Larry Rhoden in South Dakota do not have degrees currently out of all sitting 50 governors.
They are - i was saying i couldn't find any dems, period.
Did some further research - even in 2015, only a few Republicans had no degrees - Gary Herbert of Utah and Scott Walker of Wisconsin. Still can't find any Democrats.
President Truman did not have a college degree.
FDR though did, graduating from Harvard. All POTUS since Truman have been college graduates (including Eisenhower).
I don't know about governors, but former Congressman Mike Michaud doesn't have a college degree.
Huey Long didn't have a degree; I'm sure there were other Dems between then and now that didn't but he was the first name I thought of.
Calvert is the one with the most seniority out of all of these, though, but Cole is still chair.
So sorry for you loss. Yes, very much a life well lived!
I’m so sorry for your loss.
Sorry for your loss. She sure did put up a fight to make it until 2026.
Sorry for your loss man.
So sorry for your loss. Very inspirational woman.
Sorry for your loss - indeed a life well lived
She sounds like she was an incredible woman and mother, and she had an incredible son to match her heart by her side. I'm very sorry for your loss, and she definitely had a very well lived life!
DM, my deepest condolences. I commend your mother on a life well lived! May her memory be a continuing blessing.
I'm sorry for your loss. It sounds like an amazing life and were a great caregiver.
DM, I am thinking of you at this time. I never met your mom but felt like I knew her a little bit through your telling me about her life. Best wishes in refocusing your life around your own needs and desires now that your role as caregiver is over. Good luck in whatever you do and wherever you live in Arizona or California.
Your friend, Zack
Thank you for sharing this, DM. I'm sorry for your loss, and hope your mother's memory will be a blessing.
Wonderful tribute. I send you my deepest sympathies and a salute for caring for your mother. Many adult children do not care for or about their parents.
I'm so very sorry for your loss. Your tribute was just beautiful. May your mother's memory be a blessing.
It's not even a rumor at this point. Some longtime Minnesota reporters say it's almost confirmed and the domains were all registered a couple of days ago.
Will Klobuchar appoint Walz to the Senate seat? I hope she doesn't appoint the loser of the Minnesota Senate primary since they won't have the will of the people.
People know that I dislike Craig and support Flanagan. However, selecting the loser of their primary would be extremely controversial. It would likely be perceived as a slap in the face to voters and could trigger a deeply bitter next primary either from a centrist anti-establishment or a progressive anti-establishment candidate.
Which of these candidates is ideologically closest to Klobuchar—mainstream liberal, but neither as centrist as Craig or Phillips nor as progressive as Flanagan or Wellstone?
I think Walz has the most similar politics, but he might want to "go gently into the good night" given the impact of the events of the last year for him.
Mostly agree, though there are a couple things I would add.
Julie Blaha is likely a non-starter. While yes, she is a woman, she is an electoral liability. Not in the political lightning rod way that Ellison and Omar are (both are bon-starters IMO). Its easy to forget, but Blaha was an incredibly weak DFL performer in both of her elections, doing worse than Ellison on the sme ballot in 2022, and never being able to even pull a majority in heavily blue electorates in 2018 and 2022.
And one candidate who j believe near or at the top of the list is former Senate DFL leader Melissa Franzen prior to being redistricted out in 2022. She is seen as an after thought in the primary between Flanagan and Craig, but she is well connected, universally respected within DFL politics, and only 45 years old. Id keep an eye on her as a liberal appointment that would have little to no pushback within the party.
Blaha has a few things working against her. She is not charismatic, not photogenic, not a good campaigner, and as Auditor it is difficult to point to anything she has done.
The more inside ball, which would have only minor impact in terms of votes is that she is seen as a union stooge, and doesnt have any traits that she has successfully leveraged a counterargument to that. Her only electoral strength is the D next to her name in a blue state.
I wonder if the fraud attacks would also be able to be revived and used against Blaha, given her position as auditor
Melissa Franzen, to be clear.
She dropped out of the primary.
Wouldn't surprise me if Angie Craig pivots from the Senate race to the gubernatorial race.
Makes more sense to wait for Klobuchar to appoint a replacement for herself in the Senate.
Nobody stands a chance against Klobuchar.
That sounds like political suicide.
It would be if Klobuchar is really running. I'll wait and see if it actually happens. If she doesn't run, Craig would seemingly be a frontrunner.
That would be a horrific thing to do. This sort of shenanigans happened in Minnesota about 40 years ago, and it absolutely decimated the DFL in the next election cycles, and Democrats didnt win the governorship for over 2 decades thereafter.
That's because the Governor appointed himself.
Which one?
Wendy Anderson, 1976
Rudy Perpich was elected in 82 an 86.
Don't like the Klobuchar angle. This would likely require a special election in November 2027, when otherwise the seat wouldn't be up until 2030.
The special election would likely happen sooner than November 2027. Minnesota moves quickly with special elections.
It's going to be spring 2027, I bet.
The special election would take place in 2028 for a 2-year term. Klobuchar would appoint her replacement.
So that would mean November 2027?
There is not a regular election in Minnesota in 2027. Therefore, it would be like it is in Ohio, where the election for Vance's old seat is taking place in 2026.
NYT:
Walz met with Klobuchar Sunday and gave her a heads up and she plans to run for Governor.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/us/walz-governor-fraud-klobuchar.html?utm_social_post_id=642761263&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&utm_social_handle_id=807095
Ugh.
Do you dislike Klobuchar?
I completely forgot about her mistreatment of staff. It didn't receive much coverage after 2020.
Leaving office at 74 (unless she makes the seemingly unwise decision to do 3 terms) is a pretty good retirement age, too. She'll be 66 this year.
I don't dislike Klobuchar but I'd rather she stay in the senate. She's absolutely fine there. And she holds down a critical senate seat with no risk or worry, election after election after election.
Plus, 2026 is not looking like the type of cycle where we need a juggernaut like Klobuchar to hold the MN gov seat. Walz retiring is good for our chances, but any solid candidate should be able to do it.
I do not like the prospect of worrying about her senate seat in 2030, especially if it's a democratic midterm.
It’s a chance to get someone better in her Senate seat, at least.
If she's picking her replacement, then they're probably not going to be meaningfully different from her, for good or ill.
I'd say she's decent enough as-is anyway. Minnesota is still a close state, and she's a very reliable vote for us, while very rarely being part of the problematic votes caucus. We could do better in MN, yes. But she's not a problem and in exchange we've gotten someone with near zero risk of losing reelection. It's an acceptable tradeoff to me.
I go back and forth on whether I think she should stay in the Senate or run for governor. I think she has great potential to have strong coattails and be a benefit to downballot candidates. However, Minnesota would then have two freshmen Senators. Klobuchar is currently the number 3 (or similar) democrat and ranking member of the ag committee. In Georgia, where they also had two freshmen Senators, Warnock and Ossoff aren't in Senate leadership and only lead subcommittees. The Senate runs largely on seniority so Klobuchar has a lot of leverage in bringing funding back to the state.
One thing I don't know how much weight to put towards is the safety of her Senate seat. By 2030 she'll be 70 and nearing completion of her 4th term. It's certainly plausible she would end up retiring, so having an incumbent could be helpful.
Why ugh? She will be a boon for downballot races where we all know Walz would not. She is literally the best possible candidate we have for this office in the state. She'll appoint her replacement and then that person will run in the special and then for a full term in 2030 a LA Tina Smith.
Creates an open seat unnecessarily.
I don't see how an open seat in 2027 will be a problem in the slightest, given that Donald Trump will still be in what's left of the White House (assuming his rotting husk holds on that long).
Klobuchar running may be the best-case scenario for blocking Angie Craig from the Senate or becoming Governor. If Klobuchar doesn't run, candidates like Craig are incentivized to switch over, and she would likely win. If Flanagan switches races, Craig becomes a Senator instead.
Of course, Klobuchar could also appoint Craig as her replacement, which also seems highly possible, especially since the current Senate primary is likely to be close either way.
I wonder if Klobuchar would appoint Flanagan if Craig wins the primary though.
Trump is doing whatever he can to make MN more blue, just like he’s doing the same to CO.
Frankly, a MN-SEN race in this environment would be at least Likely Democrat.
Be careful California !
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2026/01/05/tim-walz-drop-out-minnesota-governor-race
Walz out. Aaron Apollo Camp mentioned this above but it became official shortly thereafter. Sen. Klobuchar will probably run.
Getting a third term would have been a fight even in the best of circumstances.
That certainly wasn't the consensus here a month ago when I was sounding the alarm bells about Walz's developing fraud scandal.
They addressed the fraud in 2024 and last year. But the GOP, per usual, is relentless in tearing down Democrats.
I'm of two minds. On the one hand, it's certainly not usual for DFL incumbents to step aside (whether through not running for reelection or through resignation) due to circumstances that Republicans (or even Dems in other states) would stick it through. Dayton didn't even have any big scandal in 2005-2006, he was just unpopular, but he didn't run that year. With Al Franken, I don't want to open this too much, just to say that circumstances would be much different if this involved a Republican. And now this; Walz is not implicated in the fraud going on at all. He's stepping aside for the good of the party and that is understandable.
But. This still does send a message to Reps that they can make bogus allegations and get people to step down, and that bothers me a lot.
They already know that.
He's not implicated but the problem is that it happened under his watch. When there's smoke, there's fire.
Not really. Where there's smoke, there's smoke, but it can envelop the political landscape.
They learned that lesson with a US Senator from Minnesota.
But Walz never really seemed that into a 3rd term and it appeared he was running out of obligation (and to reclaim some credibility from the ‘24 loss). With the assassinations it seemed like he was even less into the campaign. So, this circumstance is a bit different than just stepping aside b/c of the manufactured scandal.
I’ve seen the theory that he was grooming Hortman as a successor
Her close friends and family confirmed that theory to Rolling Stone in a recent cover.
This is all true, but honestly, I think the biggest factor here is that the guy's just exhausted.
He probably could have beaten Mike Lindell. Not sure about Demuth or the others, though.
I think the DFL was always favored in an unpopular Trump midterm.
Klobuchar is more likely to have coattails, though.
I think Bob Brooks will not win the PA 07 primary if he can't cross 11 in polls even with the endorsements of Josh Shapiro, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, and their allies.
Which is sad, I like him.
It's January, and he's six points behind the leader, who is sitting at a whopping 17%. I don't think the primary is going to be won with a 17-11 plurality.
I'm aware, I just liked him as a candidate.
I think he'll make it through considering the institutional support. McClure is an elected, but so is Pinsley, who isn't gaining as much traction.
He's the most recent entrant and most voters are still undecided. He has enough time to make up the gap.
PA07?
"…federal candidates have to file campaign finance reports with the FEC…"
QUESTION: Are federal candidates required to include an email address for each of their donors? Or is Full Name and physical Address sufficient?
I have long advocated for ActBlue offering donors the option of NOT providing either email or cell phone when they donate. The question is whether there are any LEGAL hindrances to ActBlue implementing this option.
Federal law makes candidates have to report the name, physical address, occupation and employer of anyone contributing more than $200. There are no federal laws to my knowledge that force a business or non-profit to collect emails and phone numbers from those with who they do work/business, or laws that force political donors to disclose them to entities or candidates to whom they give money. So this is something ActBlue chooses to do on their end. Given how political fundraising, list building, advertising and marketing work, it makes no sense (from an organizational perspective, despite how much you and I may want it) to give potential donors the option of opting-out, they would be losing precious data, central to an organization like that. Unless of course the calculation is made that the amount of potential contributors walking away because that option is not available is greater than the value of potential data being lost by making it an option. I would love to be corrected by anyone with actual legal expertise.
A slight aside: It is my contention that fundraising often takes a form, and has an aggressiveness, that undermines the campaign itself.
Case in point: Kamala Harris won the debate against Trump. She crushed him! At that point, her campaign communication and its fundraising could and should have switched to portraying her as "a winner"! And yet, her fundraising continued to paint Kamala as "the underdog" in order to extract more money from panicked donors. Huge mistake!
Trump painted himself as a winner. Americans like to vote for winners.
?? Trump painted himself as the underdog taking on the corrupt media and legal system who was given a second life by the big guy.
…but never as the underdog against Kamala.
True.
Fully agreed. When its a couple of months out, and the frantic spam texting "donate or we're doomed!", fully ramps up, it gets quite aggravating and I'm sure many potential donors/voters feel the same way.
Smokejumper Sam Forstag is reportedly set to announce a bid for Mt-1 later today:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-blue-wave-montana-first-congressional-district-sam-forstag/#
I feel that he might be too far left relatively for a R+8 district since he is an ACLU advocate and a Bernie bro. But he has the looks, would be a viable candidate able to fundraise and has some name recognition so the district could atleast be in play in a blue wave.
"Voters will only know he jumps from planes/helicopters to fight forest fires."
They'll also know whether the Republican say about him, don't you think?
In a big enough wave, voter anger at Trump and the Republicans may make socialism unimportant to enough voters, but it certainly is not a plus in an R+ district.
It would be an interesting test to see if Bernie-style left economic populism has any play in a redder district. The district is a long shot anyway, I don't see the harm.
We ran a generic moderate Democrat in 2022 & 2024 and lost both times so I don't see the harm in trying smth different
I'm not sure I follow that. A Democrat couldn't win in those two years but has a much better chance in a likely wave, and being too leftist might prevent a victory. But we shall see.
Aftyn Behn was too far left for TN 7 and got it to single digits.
We don’t know if a moderate/centrist would have done better than Behn though. Single digits is pretty good given that district’s lean, redder than the Montana seat.
She did well in Nashville and wasn't too bad in rural areas; it was the super-wealthy county that hurt her, and, in truth, super-wealthy but conservative areas aren't likely to be open to affordability messages anyhow.
She was to the left of even Mamdani on police and still refused to disavow the defund the police movement. I don’t think that anyone would have won the heart of the Southern Baptist Congregation but the margins would have been closer. She did do a good job of being disciplined on her message and turning out voters.
That doesn't necessarily mean anything in the current special election climate. That said, I agree with the idea that we haven't been winning there with moderates, so why not try a different approach in a district we are unlikely to win anyway.
I don't mean to undermine you, but unless Cook hasn't updated and it's wrong, the most recent Cook PVI data rates that district at R +5.
I was referring to the raw House election margin. PVI is a bit different.
Several recent polls show Mamdani with positive approval nationally. Republicans may want to consider whether tying Dems to a popular figure is a smart move.
They desperately need a new boogeyman, I guess.
Cook Political Report has this district as R+5. That's winnable in a moderate wave. And IIRC, Tester carried the district in 2024.
Ryan Zinke is also a big underperformer and only won by 3 in 2022 and 7.7 in 2024 as Trump was carrying the seat by 11 iirc
More like Ryan Stinke, amirite?
RIP Dick Zimmer, former Republican Congressman from New Jersey - notable for Megan's Law, which requires the registration of sex offenders, and for endorsing Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/nyregion/dick-zimmer-dead.html?unlocked_article_code=1.CFA.yl-R.-a8zhB5uL_Ua&smid=url-share
Mentioned on weekly open thread :)
Second best former Congressman Dick name - after of course Dick Swett of NH. I liked to refer to Dick Zimmer by the nickname “Cock Room” as Zimmer is room in German and well you know the other part.
Dick Swett sounded more like the name of a porn star than a Representative...
Though it's less on-the-nose, I've often wondered why SD Rep. Dustin Johnson chooses to go by "Dusty."
Hopefully one of these days Megan’s Law can be repealed and there can be real criminal Justice reform. Clearly Dick Zimmer was not for this kind of reform.
I really have never heard any legitimate legal case as to why sex offenders have to be listed in a registry but violent offenders do not. Sounds unconstitutional if you ask me.
Politico's Jonathan Martin on Walz-Klobuchar news:
"This doubles as an escape hatch to avoid facing a (difficult) caucus vote against Schatz, for whip and eventually leader
And it has surely crossed her mind that she could be in better VP contention as a Midwestern gov than just another senator and in that tidy, modern Democrat way where they act like Repubs of yore this represents a clean extraction of Walz for Amy and then preempts a messy primary between Craig and Flanagan by letting them each have a Sen seat
who needs voters?"
https://x.com/jmart/status/2008183607689687417
How do voters not have their say?
The special election for Texas state senate in the Fort Worth area is the same day as the congressional election in Houston, January 31. Any ideas on the outcome of the former? An upset by the Democrat, perhaps?
It's possible, Trump +17.5 isn't undoable in a special election, and the Democrat got 47.6% of the vote in November, and lower turnout and the elimination of the more moderate Republican may allow the Democrat to just barely be able to get a majority
The Right-Wing Justices Know Their Favorite Legal Theory Is Bunk
Now that the Supreme Court’s conservative bloc is putting the unitary executive theory to the test, its cracks are beginning to show—and its proponents are flailing.
https://newrepublic.substack.com/p/the-right-wing-justices-know-their?
NH Sen: New poll from NHJournal/Praecones Analytics has Chris Pappas leading John Sununu 42%-36% and Scott Brown 46%-28%. It also finds Trump's approval to be the lowest ever in NH at 32% with his disapproval at 53%. https://nhjournal.com/exclusive-trump-underwater-ayotte-still-afloat-in-new-nhjournal-poll/
Too bad they'll re-elect that GOP governor. Why, NH, why?
Because Ayotte is a Moderate Republican Darling™ and the media never ever turns on them.
Same with the "moderate" Sununu clan. They all (except for John Jr, who pretended to be a conservative) got elected easily as moderates.
NH is such a contradiction with its libertarian streak. They'll send Democrats to the House and Senate (as well as their EC votes) but vote for Republicans statewide.
Be nice if the NH legislature flipped this year.
NH isn't libertarian. The republicans elected here are either fairly traditional Neocon types or increasingly shifting towards MAGA. Basically the antithesis of libertarian. Similar story for democrats being moderate, establishment democrats.
Can anyone point at Pappas, Goodlander, Shaheen, or Hassan on our side, or Ayotte, Sununu, Brown, or Bass and tell me any of them are anywhere near an approximation of a libertarian? NH is literally the only state in New England where weed isn't legal. Yeah yeah, no sales tax or income tax, but hating new taxes isn't reserved for libertarians. Voters everywhere hate new taxes. Oregon doesn't have a sales tax but nobody is calling that state libertarian.
NH got a reputation as libertarian primarily because of the slogan on our license plates. But that's advertising, not reality.
Hope we put up a fight for NH-Gov as well don't need Ayotte being a future threat for a senate seat.
Although she obviously is, since she was previously a senator.
Is that 100% sure?
Sununu got reelected multiple times during D-favorable midterms and presidential years. Ayotte will likely fare the same way, unless the R brand craters in NH or she does something extremely unpopular that crosses party lines.
It's not 100% sure but it'd take one hell of a wave to see that change.
NH and Vermont have created a very pro-incumbent system with the two year gubernatorial terms. This is counterintuitive, as one would expect incumbents to prefer longer terms (and maybe they still do, on a personal level). But it results in voters being asked to keep or replace a governor so shortly after electing them, before many significant changes could have happened since the last election.
Many voters are going to give a two year incumbent governor more time before considering replacing them, especially if they previously voted for that person. Then by the time four years are up, they will now have voted for this governor twice already, maybe even four times if we include primaries. At that point it's starting to become a habit on a subconscious level and voters will be less willing to switch their vote than they would have otherwise.
Governors here have to really step in it or be exceptionally unlucky to get voted out early on. That could happen to Ayotte, especially if we have a big enough wave next year, but we should hold our expectations in check.
That's interesting about how the 2-year terms affect voter behavior.
Hopefully Brown wins the primary!
Suffice to say, Sununu has delusions of grandeur in deciding to run for the Senate.
After he was originally unseated!
MT-01:
https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/2008240587900592331
That did not take long. Bernie has already endorsed Sam Forstag.
TX-Sen: Very excited that Talarico turned in yet another stunning fundraising quarter. Wonder how Crockett did, though she only announced with less than a month left in the quarter.
Hopefully he gets on the air soon, early voting isn't so far away.
When is the primary?
Same as NC -- March 3rd.
For reference Crockett ended Q3 of 2025 with $4.6m in her House account, which she can transfer to a Senate campaign.
Yeah but that’s more capital for Crockett.
The question is, how would it be used? Is she going to focus on ads or ground game GOTV work?
I mean yes, that's kind of the question for all fundraising reports
Yeah, I was just posing that out of the blue but from my standpoint, I think Crockett may be behind when it comes to fundraising. Doesn't mean she doesn't have a chance but with the TX-SEN primary being on March 3rd, I don't know if she will have enough time.