Morning Digest: Democrats land first candidate in race to flip Georgia's open governorship
Jason Esteves blasts likely GOP rivals as "extreme politicians who push Trump's reckless agenda"
Leading Off
GA-Gov
Georgia state Sen. Jason Esteves on Monday became the first Democrat to announce a campaign to replace Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who cannot seek a third term.
Esteves, who is Puerto Rican with Black ancestry and identifies as both Latino and Black, would be the first person of color elected governor in the Peach State, as well as the first Democrat to win the post since 1998.
His launch came the same day that former state Sen. Jason Carter said he wouldn't enter the primary following his wife's recent brain cancer diagnosis. Rep. Lucy McBath previously announced she was suspending her exploratory efforts because of her husband's own battle with cancer, though she said she wasn't ruling out a run.
Esteves, a former chair of the Atlanta Board of Education, began his campaign with a video describing two of his would-be Republican opponents, Attorney General Chris Carr and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, as examples of the "extreme politicians in Georgia who push Trump's reckless agenda." He also argued in a new interview with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Trump, who carried Georgia 51-48 last year after narrowly losing it in 2020, was putting the state's economy and residents at risk.
"President Trump's chaos has hurt Georgia's families, and it will continue to hurt Georgia families," Esteves said as he decried Trump's tariffs and cuts to institutions like Atlanta's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "And my job as governor is to make sure that we're doing what we can to stop that impact from hurting Georgians. And Georgia Republican leaders have failed to do that."
Carr is currently the only Republican in the race, though the Associated Press writes that Jones "is expected to announce his candidacy soon." Several other Republicans are waiting to see whether Kemp will challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff before deciding what office to run for next year.
Esteves is likely to have company as well. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms said earlier this month that she plans to seek the Democratic nomination, though she stopped short of announcing. Former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond has also talked about seeking the state's top job, while former state Rep. Stacey Abrams, who lost to Kemp in 2018 and 2022, hasn't said no to a third campaign.
Thank you so much for being a loyal reader of The Downballot! If you value our work, we’d be so grateful if you’d consider becoming a paid subscriber today.
Election Night
Special Elections
Connecticut holds a special election today for the seat in the state House that Republican Jason Perillo left behind after he won a promotion to the upper chamber two months ago.
The 113th State House District, which is based in Shelton in the southwestern part of the state, is a longtime GOP stronghold that Perillo held without opposition in 2022 and 2024. Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried this constituency by a wide 55-43 margin last year. Trump previously took it 53-46 in 2020, according to data from Dave's Redistricting App and VEST.
The GOP is fielding Amy Romano, a member of the Shelton Board of Education. The Democratic nominee is businessman Michael Duncan, who unsuccessfully ran for the city's Board of Aldermen in 2021.
Senate
LA-Sen
Rep. Julia Letlow is not ruling out a challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy in next year's Republican primary, which comes at a time when NOLA.com's Tyler Bridges says that Louisiana Republicans are "buzzing over talk" about such a matchup. The congresswoman responded to Bridge's inquiries by saying, "I'm focused on reelection," before hurrying away.
The speculation about her future, however, has made it all the way to the governor's mansion. Gov. Jeff Landry informed Bridges he'd spoken to Cassidy about a potential challenge by Letlow. The governor added that he wasn't trying to recruit her, but he declined to say anything else about the race.
Cassidy, who voted to convict Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, already faces intraparty opposition from Treasurer John Fleming, who is self-funding most of his effort.
Other Republicans are considering joining him. One, Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, told Bridges he'll make up his mind by July 4. State Sen. Blake Miguez is also a potential candidate, though he said he was concentrating on his current job following his father's death.
ME-Sen
While Gov. Janet Mills hasn't ruled out challenging Republican Sen. Susan Collins, the Bangor Daily News' Billy Kobin has a look at several other Maine Democrats who are publicly or privately considering running against the five-term incumbent.
The most prominent name on Kobin's list belongs to state House Speaker Ryan Fecteau, who would be the first gay person to represent Maine in the upper chamber. Fecteau said, "I haven't made any decisions," when the reporter asked him about his interest in taking on Collins. Last year, he didn't dismiss chatter that he could instead run to replace Mills, who is termed out of her current job.
Former congressional staffer Jordan Wood, meanwhile, said he was "thinking seriously about what my role in that looks like, including as a candidate." Politico reported last week that Wood was informing people he plans to run, though he did not tell Kobin that he's already made up his mind.
Former state Sen. Cathy Breen also didn't rule anything out when asked about her plans, saying she was "not in a position to discuss yet" whether she might challenge Collins. Kobin also writes that Penobscot Nation Chief Kirk Francis is interested, though Francis hasn't said anything publicly.
One prominent politician that Kobin does not mention is Rep. Jared Golden. In January, BDN reporter Michael Shepherd said Golden January was one of the three Democrats whom party operatives were "confident" would run to replace Mills. (The other two were Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who entered the race last month, and former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who has formed an exploratory committee.)
Other Democrats, though, haven't given up trying to recruit Golden to take on Collins. CNN's Edward-Isaac Dovere this week identified him as the party's top choice for Senate and said that the congressman was "still weighing" what to do. Golden told Axios' Andrew Solender earlier this month he was "running for reelection to my seat as far as I know, but I'll look at statewide offices."
But while the congressman said he was "not taking anything off the table," it would still be a surprise if he decided to campaign against Collins. Golden began his political career as a Collins staffer, and he remained conspicuously neutral in her competitive 2020 reelection battle against Democrat Sara Gideon.
MI-Sen, MI-11
Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens announced early Tuesday that she's running for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat, and we’ll have more on her entry in our next Digest. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed were already competing to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters, a fellow Democrat.
Stevens' decision to run statewide also sets off an open-seat race to succeed her in the 11th Congressional District, a constituency based in Detroit's northwestern suburbs. The state's independent redistricting commission made this once-competitive district considerably bluer following the 2020 census. Kamala Harris carried the 11th 57-41, according to calculations by The Downballot, while Stevens defeated her Republican opponent by a similar 58-40 margin.
MS-Sen, SC-Sen, AK-Sen
Democrats may soon land Senate candidates in two dark-red Southern states, CNN's Edward-Isaac Dovere reports.
In Mississippi, District Attorney Scott Colom is "gearing up for a likely run" against Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, Dovere writes. Hyde-Smith blocked Colom, who serves four counties in a region in the eastern part of the state known as the Golden Triangle, from becoming a federal judge after Joe Biden nominated him in 2023.
South Carolina Democrat Annie Andrews, meanwhile, is thinking about taking on GOP Sen. Lindsay Graham. Andrews, a pediatrician, raised $2 million for her campaign against GOP Rep. Nancy Mace in 2022, but Mace prevailed 56-42.
Dovere also writes that Democrats "are urging" former Rep. Mary Peltola to take on Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, though there's no word on whether she's receptive to the idea. The Cook Political Report said in February that Peltola was "likely" to instead enter the open-seat race for governor, though she has not announced anything in the ensuing two months.
Governors
AZ-Gov
Donald Trump announced on Monday that his previously exclusive endorsement in Arizona's Republican primary for governor is now dual in nature: Months after giving his backing to wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, Trump posted on social media that he also supports Rep. Andy Biggs' quest to take on Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs next year.
Trump insisted on Truth Social that both his picks were "fantastic candidates," saying that he hadn't expected Biggs to run when Robson, who lost the GOP primary in 2022 to Kari Lake, asked for his support for her new effort. Trump issued a pre-endorsement to Robson in December, two months before she announced her second campaign. Biggs entered the race during the intervening time.
Not everyone, however, agrees with Trump that neither Republicans will ever "let you down." The far-right Club for Growth, which has long been close to Biggs, showed Politico's Ally Mutnick an internal poll right before Trump issued his dual endorsement that found the congressman outperforming Robson in both the primary and general election.
The early April survey from Pulse Decision Science has Biggs, a member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, outpacing Robson 45-16 for the GOP nod. It also finds that, while Biggs trails Hobbs 46-42, the governor sports a larger 47-38 advantage over Robson. The Club has not yet formally taken sides, but Mutnick interprets the poll as "a warning shot" at Robson.
It's not just the deep-pocketed Club: Other Biggs fans, including far-right troll Laura Loomer, were also unhappy when Trump endorsed Robson late last year. Loomer, who highlighted Robson's appearance in a 2022 TV ad promoting a successful ballot measure to allow undocumented high school graduates to qualify for in-state college tuition, lamented, "This vetting crisis needs to be addressed."
Robson, for her part, enjoyed her unexpectedly brief time as Trump's only pick. She launched her campaign in February with a video focused solely on the fact that she was Trump's choice. That came to a predictable end on Monday evening, though, when Biggs enthusiastically shared Trump's message on social media.
CA-Gov
Former Fox News host Steve Hilton said Monday that he would run as a Republican in next year's race to succeed California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who cannot seek a third term.
Hilton, who emulated Donald Trump with his call to "make California Golden Again," was born in the United Kingdom and spent his early political career in British politics. Hilton attempted to become the Conservative Party's candidate in 2005 for a safe seat in Parliament, but party leaders instead chose Michael Gove, who would later become an ardent supporter of Brexit.
Thank you so much for being a loyal reader of The Downballot! If you value our work, we’d be so grateful if you’d consider becoming a paid subscriber today.
Hilton later served as director of strategy for an old friend, Prime Minister David Cameron; the two were so close that Gove once remarked, "It's impossible to know where Steve ends and David begins." Hilton, who was the inspiration for a character on the British satirical political comedy "The Thick of It," later emerges as a vocal Trump supporter on Fox.
Hilton, who became an American citizen in 2021, launched his first campaign in his adopted state with a video in which he calls for turning the page on Kamala Harris and other California Democrats. (Yes, he does sport an accent, but of course, he wouldn't be the state's first foreign-born governor to do so.)
The former vice president, who beat Trump 58-38 in the Golden State last year, is considering entering a top-two primary that already includes several fellow Democrats and one notable Republican, Riverside County Sheriff ​​Chad Bianco.
MI-Gov, MI-Sen
Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard is one of several Michigan Republicans whom the Detroit News' Craig Mauger says are "quietly taking steps to set up a campaign" for governor. Leonard, who unsuccessfully ran for attorney general in 2018 and 2022, has, however, remained quiet about his interest in running to replace termed-out Democrat Gretchen Whitmer.
Conservative commentator Tudor Dixon, by contrast, has been vocal about running for either governor or Senate, though Mauger writes that she's now "leaning in favor" of the former. Dixon, who badly lost to Whitmer in 2022, hasn't publicly indicated which office she's aiming for.
The gubernatorial field could also include a pair of wealthy businessmen, Perry Johnson and Kevin Rinke, who unsuccessfully competed with Dixon for the GOP nod three years ago. The primary already features former Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. John James, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt.
Democrats also have a contested nomination contest, though Mauger believes that the party's primary lineup already "appears somewhat solidified." That roster includes Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, and Mauger doesn't mention any potential new names.
NM-Gov
Former state Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura told the Santa Fe New Mexican's Daniel Chacon last week that she's considering seeking the Republican nomination for governor. Nakamura, whose 2016 victory makes her the last Republican to win statewide in New Mexico, added that she was "a ways off from making a decision" and had no deadline.
Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, who entered the race earlier this month, is currently the only Republican running to replace Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, who cannot seek a third term next year.
RI-Gov
Businessman Greg Stevens, who owns a local chain of Italian restaurants, tells GoLocalProv he's thinking about seeking the Democratic nomination for governor of Rhode Island. Stevens, who argues he could "work down the middle" if elected, has not previously run for office.
Democratic Gov. Dan McKee is already preparing for an expensive primary rematch against former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, whom he narrowly beat in 2022. Attorney General Peter Neronha also hasn't ruled out challenging McKee.
House
AZ-06
Immigration attorney Mo Goldman announced Tuesday that he would seek the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Arizona's 6th District, a competitive seat in the Tucson area.
Goldman launched his effort by blasting Donald Trump's attacks on people like those he represents. He told the Tucson Sentinel, "It seems like a lot of wasted resources on individuals who are not here to do our country any harm, and that do benefit our country economically."
Goldman joins Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza in the Democratic primary. Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, narrowly carried this constituency 50-49 last year.
NY-17
John Sullivan, a former senior official with the FBI, announced today that he would enter the Democratic primary for New York's swingy 17th District, making him the fifth notable candidate in the race.
Sullivan left the bureau earlier this month after a 17-year career, explaining in an essay that the actions of the new administration have begun "derailing the work of the FBI through chaos."
"I took an oath to defend the Constitution," he wrote. "The unqualified leaders Donald Trump chose to lead the bureau act like they took an oath to Trump personally." In a launch video, Sullivan elaborated, "But now that the threat is coming from inside the White House, I had to leave the FBI and step forward."
Like the rest of the Democratic field, Sullivan is awaiting a decision from Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who recently said he'd decide whether to challenge Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul "sometime in June." A few days after he made those remarks, though, reports emerged that another New York House Republican, Elise Stefanik, was also considering a gubernatorial bid, which could complicate things for Lawler.
WI-03
Former Eau Claire City Councilwoman Laura Benjamin is entering the race for the Democratic nomination to face GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden next year. Benjamin, who said the incumbent is "asleep at the wheel while working families suffer," joins Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge and businesswoman Rebecca Cooke, who was Van Orden's 2024 opponent, in the primary.
Other Races
VA-LG
Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity announced Monday that he was dropping out of the June 17 Republican primary for lieutenant governor of Virginia, a decision he told 7News he reached because of "complications" stemming from a recent heart surgery.
Herrity's decision leaves conservative radio host John Reid as the only Republican in the race to replace Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who likewise has the GOP primary for governor to herself. Six Democrats are still competing for the nomination for the post of lieutenant governor, which is tasked with breaking ties in the closely divided state Senate.
2026 Generic Congressional Ballot polling trends by RMG Research (with leaners)
January
🔴 GOP: 51% (+7)
🔵 DEM: 44%
March
🔴 GOP: 48% (+2)
🔵 DEM: 46%
APRIL
🔵 DEM: 50% (+5)
🔴 GOP: 45%
12 point swing towards the Democrats
https://napolitannews.org/posts/democrats-make-huge-gains-on-generic-ballot
https://puck.news/jeff-roe-the-consultant-complicating-ken-paxtons-senate-campaign/
None of this is deterring Roe, who is more interested in saving his business than in saving a G.O.P. majority in the Senate. And according to the Republican operatives I spoke to, that’s the essence of what’s fueling anger toward him. Paxton and his red-meat brand of politics can beat Cornyn in a primary—a poll leaked in early April, in fact, showed Paxton ahead of Cornyn by 25 points in the primary. But Republican Senate leadership worries that he’ll have a hard time winning the general election. There’s a second part to that same poll, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, that hasn’t been reported until now. It showed Paxton polling basically even (or within the margin of error) against a generic Democrat, according to three people who have seen the poll—not great for a Republican in Texas.
Well, well, well...