Morning Digest: Don't sleep on these two major races happening in Virginia this year
Check out our complete guide to the Old Dominion's statewide primaries
Leading Off
VA-AG, VA-LG
While neither party will host a primary in Virginia's marquee race for governor this fall, there's plenty to watch further down the ballot on June 17 in the races for attorney general and lieutenant governor.
Two Democrats filed to face Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares ahead of last week's deadline, while both sides will see contested nomination battles in the open race for lieutenant governor.
Miyares, whose 2021 victory made him the first Latino elected statewide, decided to seek a second term as Virginia's top lawyer rather than take on Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the GOP primary for governor, and he has no intraparty opposition. Democrats, however, will see a duel between former Del. Jay Jones and Shannon Taylor, the commonwealth's attorney for Henrico County. Jones would be Virginia's first Black attorney general, while Taylor would be the second woman elected to this post.
In the Democratic primary in 2021, Jones unsuccessfully challenged then-Attorney General Mark Herring, who went on to narrowly lose to Miyares in November. This time around, Jones has extensive establishment support.
The former delegate has earned endorsements from, among others, former Govs. Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam, as well as Reps. Suhas Subramanyam and Eugene Vindman. Clean Virginia, a prominent environmental group that has spent millions in past races, is also backing Jones.
Taylor, whose 2011 victory helped hasten Henrico County's transformation from a one-time Republican stronghold into a reliably Democratic community, has EMILYs List in her corner. She also has the backing of former Attorney General Mary Sue Terry, a Democrat whose 1985 victory made her the first woman elected statewide and who remains the only woman to win election as Virginia's top law enforcement official.
The Republican primary to replace Earle-Sears as lieutenant governor also features two candidates: Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, a longtime elected official in the state's largest county, and John Reid, a conservative radio host who would be the first gay person to hold statewide office in the Old Dominion. A third Republican, businessman John Curran, learned Tuesday that he'd failed to turn in enough signatures ahead of last week's deadline.
Democrats, meanwhile, have a crowded six-way race. The four contenders who've drawn the most attention are state Sens. Ghazala Hashmi and Aaron Rouse; Prince William County School Board chair Babur Lateef; and former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney. Former federal prosecutor Victor Salgado and labor official Alex Bastani are running as well.
Prominent Democratic politicos and groups have largely remained neutral or have avoided committing to one candidate. McAuliffe, for example, endorsed Lateef when he launched his campaign in March of last year, but he said the next month that he'd also back Stoney after the then-mayor joined the race.
One notable exception is EMILYs List, which supports Hashmi, the only woman running in either party's primary. Either Hashmi or Lateef would also be the first Muslim elected statewide.
The contest for lieutenant governor has particular importance because the holder of that office is charged with breaking ties in the state Senate, where Democrats hold a small 21-19 majority. Given that narrow divide, vacancies and special elections could change the math before the Senate next holds elections in 2027.
Democrats, though, will be defending their tight 51-49 majority in the state House this year. The Virginia Mercury reports that Democrats are fielding at least one candidate in 96 of the 100 districts, while Republicans are only contesting 66 of them. Parties can, however, place candidates on the general election ballot in races where they aren't currently fielding anyone up until the primary.
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1Q Fundraising
Monday's Digest is the last one where we'll be reporting first-quarter fundraising numbers from campaigns sharing them ahead of Tuesday's FEC filing deadline, so if you'd like to be included, please reach out ASAP. Otherwise, you'll have to wait until we publish our complete charts of fundraising data for all House and Senate candidates, which will come out as soon as possible after the deadline.
CA-40: Young Kim (R-inc): $1.3 million raised, $2.6 million cash on hand
CA-41: Ken Calvert (R-inc): $1.3 million raised, $1.4 million cash on hand
MI-07: Tom Barrett (R-inc): $800,000 raised
Senate
MI-Sen, MI-08, MI-11
Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet said Friday that she'd seek a second term in Michigan's 8th District rather than run for the Senate.
Her decision will come as a relief to House Democrats: Donald Trump narrowly carried McDonald Rivet's House seat, which includes Flint and the Tri-Cities areas, by a 50-48 margin, and the Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke writes that the congresswoman knew her party could have had a tough time holding it without her.
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow is currently the only prominent Democrat running to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters, but CNN's Sarah Ferris reports that the race is about to change. Ferris writes that Rep. Haley Stevens "plans to announce her run in the coming days." A statewide campaign from Stevens would open up her 11th District, a reliably blue constituency in the northwestern Detroit suburbs.
Ferris' sources also anticipate that former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed and state Rep. Joe Tate likewise run. She adds that multiple people believe the Democratic field will be "essentially set" once all four enter. Other notable Democrats like Attorney General Dana Nessel have talked about running, but we haven't heard anything new about their plans recently.
On the GOP side, Burke reports that former Rep. Mike Rogers will kick off his second Senate campaign "as soon as Monday." Rogers, who would be the first major Republican to run, narrowly lost last year's race for Michigan's other seat to Democrat Elissa Slotkin even as Trump was carrying the state.
MN-Sen, MN-05
Rep. Ilhan Omar said Thursday that she'd seek reelection in Minnesota's safely blue 5th District next year rather than campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith, a fellow Democrat. The only member of the state's eight-member House delegation who might still run for Senate is Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, who tells the Minnesota Star Tribune she'll decide later this month.
Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, one of two prominent Democrats already running, has publicized an endorsement from former Sen. Al Franken, who is Smith's immediate predecessor. The former Saturday Night Live cast member has remained a high-profile figure in the eight years since he resigned after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment.
NE-Sen
Nebraska independent Dan Osborn has publicized an internal poll showing him trailing Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts just 46-45 in a hypothetical two-way matchup. Osborn released this survey from the Democratic firm Change Research the week after he formed an exploratory committee for a possible campaign against Ricketts.
The numbers, however, are predicated on Democrats once again declining to field a candidate of their own, as they did last year. In that contest, Osborn lost to Republican Sen. Deb Fischer 53-47 while Democrat Preston Love lost to Ricketts in a special election by a far wider 63-37 margin.
TX-Sen
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has publicized endorsements from Reps. Lance Gooden and Troy Nehls for his bid to defeat Sen. John Cornyn in next year's Republican primary. Gooden and Nehls took sides even though their House colleague, Rep. Wesley Hunt, is also considering challenging Cornyn for renomination.
Sen. Ted Cruz, though, told reporters Wednesday that he would not weigh in on the race, explaining, "Both John and Ken are friends of mine." Cruz, though, hasn't always shown up to aid these pals: He remained neutral in Cornyn's 2014 primary battle against then-Rep. Steve Stockman, and he declined to assist Paxton in his competitive 2022 renomination contest against George P. Bush.
Governors
NJ-Gov
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, one of half a dozen notable Democrats running in New Jersey's June 10 primary for governor, has received endorsements from six organizations that the New Jersey Globe characterizes as "major progressive groups."
Baraka's backers include the building workers union SEIU 32BJ, which the Globe last year called a "major force in the state's progressive sphere." Also in his corner is the state branch of the Working Families Party, an influential third-party that often takes sides in Democratic primaries.
NM-Gov
Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman announced Thursday that he would run to succeed New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a fellow Democrat.
Bregman joins former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, a former congresswoman who had the Democratic primary to herself until now. The field may grow again soon: former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima set up an exploratory committee in February, and Axios' Russell Contreras anticipates he'll enter the race next month.
No prominent Republicans have entered the race yet, though Kevin Hendricks of the New Mexico Political Report says Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull "is expected to run." Kamala Harris carried the state by a 52-46 margin last year, extending a Democratic win streak at the presidential level that goes back to 2008, but no party has won more than two consecutive elections for governor since the 1980s.
Bregman used his launch video to pitch himself as a moderate who opposes both "MAGA power brokers" and "the intolerance of the far left." While Democrats nationwide have often struggled to win over primary voters with this sort of pitch, a new state law could make Bregman's task easier. Lujan Grisham signed a bill this week allowing voters who aren't registered with any party to take part in primaries. Unaffiliated voters represent 23% of the electorate in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 43-32.
Bregman, who unsuccessfully ran for office in Albuquerque several times in the 1990s, had emerged as a prominent local litigator when Lujan Grisham appointed him district attorney in 2023, and he handily won last year's race to keep his new job. However, he's by no means the best-known member of his family: Politico's headline about his candidacy read, "Father of Red Sox star Alex Bregman launches bid for New Mexico governor."
House
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MI-10
With Michigan's 10th District now open, Republican state Rep. Joe Aragona has been mentioned as a possible candidate by "multiple sources," Gongwer's Elena Durnbaugh writes. No prominent Republicans have announced campaigns yet to replace Rep. John James, who is seeking the party's nomination for governor.
NH-01
Marine veteran Maura Sullivan announced on Thursday that she'd seek the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire's 1st District, making her the first major candidate from either party to run for a seat that Kamala Harris won by a tight 51-49 margin.
This constituency in the eastern half of the state became open last week when Rep. Chris Pappas kicked off his campaign to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a fellow Democrat.
Sullivan, who lost the 2018 primary to Pappas, may need to get past another member of the Shaheen family in her second campaign here. The Boston Globe's James Pindell reports that former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, the senator's daughter, is "seriously considering" running for the House. The younger Shaheen has been discussed as a potential candidate for higher office over the last decade but has yet to run.
Sullivan, who served in Iraq and later the Obama administration, is an Illinois native who relocated to New Hampshire in 2017 shortly before Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter startled the political world by announcing her retirement. Sullivan and Pappas soon became the frontrunners in an expensive and closely watched primary for a seat that had changed party control in five of the previous six elections.
While Sullivan and her allies enjoyed a big spending advantage, Pappas had the support of Jeanne Shaheen and other prominent local Democrats. Pappas' side also framed the race as a choice between a local and an outsider backed by well-funded national groups. Pappas beat Sullivan 42-30 before winning the first of his four terms in the House.
Sullivan has remained involved in Granite State politics in the years since that loss, including as an official in the state Democratic Party. She launched her new campaign Thursday by touting New Hampshire's Seacoast region as the place she's chosen to "put down roots" and raise her children.
NJ-07
Businessman Brian Varela announced Wednesday that he would join the Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey's swingy 7th District, while physician Tina Shah confirmed to Politico's Matt Friedman that she's also considering taking on Kean.
Varela ran for Congress once before in 2022 in the neighboring 8th District, but he failed to make the primary ballot after allies of the establishment favorite, Rob Menendez, successfully challenged his petitions. Two other notable Democrats are already running against Kean, Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett and former Summit Councilman Greg Vartan, while others are still looking at the race.
Ballot Measures
ND Ballot
North Dakota's Republican-dominated legislature voted this week to place an amendment on next year's general election ballot that would raise the threshold for passing future amendments from a simple majority to 60%.
Lawmakers approved the amendment one month after their counterparts in South Dakota placed a similar measure on their state's 2026 ballot. Both proposals need a simple majority to go into effect, but voters in many states have rejected similar efforts in recent years.
Attorneys General
TX-AG
Former state party chair Matt Rinaldi tells the conservative site The Texan he's considering running to replace Attorney General Ken Paxton, a fellow Republican who is running for the Senate next year.
Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson, meanwhile, didn't quite rule out running in comments to WFAA. Johnson, a former Democrat who switched parties in 2023, said, "Right now, I'm focused on serving the residents of Dallas as their mayor."
Johnson is one of many Republicans who've been mentioned as potential candidates for this powerful and high-profile office, and the list is only growing. The Dallas Morning News' Gromer Jeffers and political science professors Mark Jones and Brandon Rottingahus identify a few new possibilities, including Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick, state Sens. Joan Huffman and Mayes Middleton, and state Rep. Brian Harrison.
IA-Gov: Kim Reynolds out https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2025/04/11/kim-reynolds-will-not-run-for-reelection-iowa-governor/83042852007/
Just bizarre that Virginia permits its Attorney General to run for re-election but not its governor.