Morning Digest: Why neither side looks likely to hold a contested primary in the Virginia governor's race

But the state's other big races will host some heated battles

Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the likely Democratic nominee for governor of Virginia (Credit: Abigail Spanberger for governor)

Leading Off

VA-Gov, VA-AG, VA-LG

Both Democrats and Republicans look set to avoid contested primaries in next year's marquee battle for Virginia's open governorship after Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares announced Monday that he'd seek reelection rather than a promotion.

Miyares' choice to stay put means that Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who launched a bid for governor in September, is unlikely to face any serious opposition in the June GOP primary. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is prohibited from seeking a second consecutive term, quickly responded to Miyares' move both by endorsing Earle-Sears as his preferred successor and backing Miyares' campaign for a second term.

Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who kicked off her own bid for Youngkin's job a year ago, likewise has the field to herself. For a time she faced primary opposition from Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, but Stoney announced in April that he would drop down to the race for lieutenant governor, putting Spanberger on a glide path to the Democratic nod.

While there's still time for an ambitious pol to make a late entry into the race for governor, they'd likely struggle to beat either frontrunner. Former Rep. Tom Perriello learned just that the hard way after he waited until January of 2017 to launch a surprise bid to wrest the Democratic nomination for governor from Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, who had spent years as the party's only viable candidate. Northam's preparation paid off, though: He beat Perriello 56-44 before decisively winning the general election.

Miyares' announcement also means that the GOP won't need to find a new candidate to defend the attorney general's office. Democrats, meanwhile, have a contested primary between former Del. Jay Jones and Shannon Taylor, the commonwealth's attorney for Henrico County, though Jones has an early upper hand in terms of establishment support.

There's considerably more uncertainty about whom Republicans will nominate for lieutenant governor, which is the third and final office on next year's statewide ballot. Both Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity and conservative radio host John Reid have expressed interest in replacing Earle-Sears, though neither has announced a campaign yet. 

The Democratic contest is a four-way battle between Stoney, whose term as mayor ends on New Year's Day; Babur Lateef, the chairman of the Prince William County School Board; and state Sens. Ghazala Hashmi and Aaron Rouse.

All three races will be fiercely contested, though the battle for Virginia's number-two job could loom especially charge. That's because the lieutenant governor is charged with breaking ties in the state Senate, where Democrats hold a small 21-19 majority. Given that narrow divide, the math could change before the Senate next holds elections in 2027—a possibility we explore in detail in our VA State Senate item below.

Senate

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Democratic Sen. Jack Reed told WPRI last week that he's "planning to run" for a sixth term in 2026. Reed, who turned 75 this month, was first elected to represent Rhode Island in the House in 1990, and he's never struggled to win any of his subsequent campaigns.

Governors

NJ-Gov

Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill earned an endorsement from EMILYs List, an influential group that backs pro-choice Democratic women, shortly after she announced her campaign for governor of New Jersey on Monday.

Sherrill is the only woman in the six-way primary to replace termed-out Gov. Phil Murphy, and she would be the second woman elected to lead the Garden State. The first was Christine Todd Whitman, a Republican who won the first of her two terms in 1993.

House

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Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo's team isn't closing the door on a rematch against Republican Gabe Evans, who unseated her just 49-48 in Colorado's 8th District two weeks ago. A Caraveo spokesperson told the Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul that the congresswoman would "evaluate potential next steps" in the coming months.

Three other Democrats also tell Paul they haven't ruled out the idea of taking on Evans in the 8th District, which includes Denver's northern suburbs and the Greeley area.

"I have been contacted," said former state Rep. Joe Salazar, who added, "I have not decided what I plan on doing." State Sen. Dafna Michaelson Jenet and state Rep. Manny Rutinel provided similar answers.

Paul named several other Democrats as possibilities, none of whom responded to his inquiries:

• State Rep. Shannon Bird

• Adams County Commissioner-elect Julie Duran Mullica

• State Sen. Kyle Mullica 

• Adams County Commissioner Steve O'Dorisio

• State Treasurer Dave Young

The Mullicas are married to one another.

FL-01

Green Beret veteran John Frankman and wealthy businessman Keith Gross are the first two Republicans to enter the special election to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz in Florida's dark red 1st District, though the race has yet to be scheduled.

Frankman left the military after he refused to get vaccinated against COVID, a decision that prompted Gaetz to make him his guest at this year's State of the Union. Gross, meanwhile, dumped $2.6 million of his own money into a longshot 2024 primary bid against Sen. Rick Scott that ended in an 84-9 drubbing.

Several better-established figures are also eyeing the race to represent this Pensacola-based district in the northwestern corner of the Florida Panhandle.

State Rep. Michelle Salzman tells Politico she's interested, though she adds that she'd stay out if Donald Trump's network consolidated behind someone else.

Former Pensacola Mayor Ashton Hayward, Escambia County Commissioner Mike Kohler, former state Rep. Frank White, and former Escambia County Commissioner Gene Valentino, meanwhile, each have informed the Pensacola News Journal's Jim Little that they're interested or have put out statements to that effect, and state Rep. Joel Rudman isn't dismissing the idea.

Politico's Kimberly Leonard, finally, writes that James Uthmeier, who serves as chief of staff to Gov. Ron DeSantis, is thinking about a campaign. There's also been speculation that DeSantis could appoint Uthmeier to replace Sen. Marco Rubio in the likely event that Rubio's colleagues confirm him as secretary of state, though the Tallahassee Democrat's Jim Rosica reported Monday that Uthmeier "is not pursuing" a spot in the upper chamber.

Several other local Republicans have been mentioned, though any prospective candidates will likely need to make up their minds quickly. A few have indeed taken their names out of contention, including state Sen. Don Gaetz, the father of Matt Gaetz.

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An unusual Florida law gives elected officials reason to be cautious about running. The state's "resign-to-run" statute requires any state-level elected officials who seek federal office to submit an irrevocable letter of resignation at least 10 business days before they file to run if the two positions' terms overlap.

Kohler acknowledged to Little that the law is "a big factor for me running because I like what I'm doing," a consideration that likely will come into play for other similarly situated politicians.

FL-06

State Sen.-elect Randy Fine told the Daytona Beach News-Journal's Mark Harper last week that he's interested in running in the as-yet unscheduled special election to succeed Republican Rep. Michael Waltz, who is set to become Donald Trump's national security advisor, in Florida's conservative 6th District. Fine, who earned a promotion from the state House this year, would be subject to the same resign-to-run law we describe in our FL-01 item above.

Ballot Measures

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The Ohio Ballot Board on Monday allowed voting rights advocates to begin collecting signatures to place what they've called their Voter Bill of Rights on a future statewide ballot. However, the group behind the proposed constitutional amendment, the Ohio Organizing Collaborative, informed reporters that it hasn't decided when precisely it wants to put its plan before voters.

Andrew Tobias writes in Cleveland Signal that organizers would likely need to start gathering signatures in January or February if they want to place the amendment on the ballot in November of next year. The Buckeye State requires voter-initiated amendments to turn in about 443,000 signatures by early July and hit certain targets in half of the state's 88 counties.

The amendment would deem voting a "fundamental right" and bar any policies or procedures that have the intent or effect of denying or unreasonably burdening the right to vote. It would also, among many other things, set up a system to automatically register voters; allow for same-day voter registration; and greatly expand early voting by removing a GOP-imposed limit of one site location per county, regardless of population.

Supporters originally aimed to place the amendment on the 2024 ballot, but Republican Attorney General Dave Yost disrupted those plans last year when he repeatedly rejected the title of the initiative. The state Supreme Court unanimously ruled last month that Yost had exceeded his authority, but the decision came far too late for the measure to go before voters this year.

Legislatures

OH State House

Republican state House Speaker Jason Stephens unexpectedly announced Monday that he would not seek to lead the Ohio House of Representatives for another term, a move that may end an unusually chaotic chapter in state politics.

Stephens stunned the state early last year when he took charge of the 99-person chamber with the support of all 32 members of the Democratic minority and 21 other Republicans; the remaining 45 Republicans in the House backed Rep. Derek Merrin. Democrats received greater representation on committees in return, though Republicans still forged ahead with a deeply conservative agenda.

What followed was two years of nasty infighting between Merrin's backers and the faction they derisively nicknamed the "Blue 22," for the 22 Republicans who backed Stephens (including Stephens himself). GOP primaries in March largely turned into a proxy war between Stephens and Senate President Matt Huffman, who successfully claimed a seat in the lower chamber ahead of a long-anticipated bid for speaker.

(Merrin, who like Huffman was termed out of his current office, ran for Congress against longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Kaptur leads by just over 1,000 votes, but local election boards have until Wednesday to finish counting.)

Four of Stephens' allies lost their primaries, but it initially looked like the speaker had won over enough former Merrin backers to remain in his leadership post with continued Democratic support. Stephens, though, upended the calculus Monday when he announced he was stepping aside two days before an internal vote of the House GOP caucus.

Huffman, though, now faces intra-party opposition from Rep. Tim Barhorst, and he may not be a shoo-in. Stephens, handicapping the contest to succeed him at a Monday press conference, said, "As far as I'm concerned this really resets the speaker's race."

VA State Senate, VA State House

The battle lines for the Jan. 7 special election in Northern Virginia that will decide control of the state Senate are now set after Democrat Kannan Srinivasan and Republican Tumay Harding won their respective party's nominations on Saturday.

The two are competing to replace Democratic Sen. Suhas Subramanyan, who was elected to represent the 10th Congressional District earlier this month. And since Srinivasan is a member of the House of Delegates, a special election to succeed him would be necessary should he succeed Subramanyan—a race that would likewise determine whether Democrats continue to run the chamber.

Srinivasan won Saturday's six-way "firehouse" primary for the 32nd Senate District by beating his nearest opponent, former Del. Ibraheem Samirah, 44-21. (Firehouse primaries, unlike traditional state-run primaries, are organized by the party and feature a small number of polling places.)

Srinivasan has already followed in Subramanyan's footsteps once before: Last year, he won a bid for Subramanyan's seat in the state House as Subramanyan successfully sought a promotion to the state Senate. While Subramanyan didn't take sides in Saturday's race, Srinivasan had the support of Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell as well as U.S. Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.

Harding, meanwhile, scored a 64-15 win over Rafi Khaja, who unsuccessfully ran for the state House in 2023. Harding is a former teacher who also lost a bid last year for local office, losing to a challenge to Mike Turner, a Democrat on the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors, by a 56-43 margin.

Democrats should be favored to hold the 32nd District: According to calculations by The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the constituency 59-38 earlier this month. However, that performance was a steep drop from Joe Biden's 67-32 victory in 2020, per data from Dave's Redistricting App and VEST. Given Democrats' slender 21-19 edge in the Senate, the stakes are exceptionally high.

An upset for Republicans would force a tie in the chamber and allow Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earl-Sears to break ties for her party. And barring any further special elections, January's contest will determine who holds the majority until 2027, when the Senate next goes before voters.

In the House, meanwhile, Democrats hold a similarly tiny 51-49 edge. There's no mechanism for resolving deadlocks, so should Democrats hold Subramanyan's Senate seat but lose Srinivasan's House seat, it would likely lead to a power-sharing agreement between the parties. The entire chamber will be up again in November of next year.  

Srinivasan's 26th District in the House performed almost identically to the 32nd District in the Senate: New calculations for The Downballot show that Harris prevailed 59-37 here, while Biden carried the district 67-32 four years ago, per DRA/VEST. Two Democrats have already begun running for Srinivasan's seat even though it will be almost two months before anyone knows if there even will be a special election.

Republicans will also need to defend the seat in the upper chamber that state Sen. John McGuire will give up following his election to represent the 5th Congressional District, but they should have little difficulty holding his deep red 10th District in the Richmond area. 

A special election hasn't been scheduled yet to replace McGuire, who has not officially informed the Senate of his planned resignation. However, local GOP leaders are set to meet today to decide how they'll choose their nominee for this upcoming contest.