It is naive to think that prices will go down to pre Covid levels. That is unfortunately not how inflation works. The only way to achieve that is through a massive recession which is even worse for many people. Fortunately, wages are increasing faster than inflation now and have almost caught up with the inflation bump. That is not to say that the problem is over for many Americans but average wage growth has caught up.
even "historic" wage gains of 10-15% mean the people on the bottom are making $16.75 instead of $15..... meanwhile rent is up 200 bucks as month as are groceries...
Dems REALLY NEED to get it through their heads. Life for the bottom 30% is absurdly expensive and increasingly miserable...
Of course, actual out of pocket housing costs went up more for renters than for existing owner occupants, and OER increases for owner occupants were accompanied by massive increases in home equity. Renters are more likely to be working class than middle class. Working class folks are also more likely to have to pay for car repairs or rideshare or another used car at the bottom of the market where prices went up the most. Experience of inflation differs, so just because we usually use a common deflator for all incomes, and nominal incomes rose more as a percentage for the 40th percentile than the 80th (I assume) doesn’t necessarily mean real incomes actually rose more for lower incomes when comparing the actual disparate baskets of goods purchased at the various income levels.
The problem is that there really aren't any easy solutions to bring prices down. in the near future. We could have hit harder that Trump's policy of tariffs and mass deportations will make the issue worse.
Its more naive to think that it would have worked. Harris had no answer because there was no answer.
If Biden could have done something about it without pushing us into a recession, he surely would have.
So Biden and then Harris were stuck trying to basically paper over inflation and point to the robustness of the economy inflation aside. And that does sound like talking down, but its mostly just the best option for messaging.
Predictably it didnt work because well - inflation was a big deal to alot of people.
They failed to communicate with the people. Especially Biden, who should have been doing it all the way through.
I sound like a broken record, but I really believe lack of effective communication is the biggest problem Democrats have. Especially when they're in power. And it's rarely the "media's" fault. It's Democrats' lack of creativity and boldness. Or merely doing Politics 101.
Dear American people - we get it, prices are high. You all saved too much money (and frankly we probably printed too much) and now you are trying to spend it all at once.
But there is literally nothing we can do about it except on the very margins of a few products (and you will then spend the money you saved on those products raising the price of some other product), without you losing your job.
They cant do a Trump and say - trust us, we'll fix this - because well - why havent they? They are in charge.
The idea that messaging could have solved the problem despite the facts on the ground seems like just another way of talking down to people honestly.
If only Biden had brought more attention to how much is administration sucked at dealing with inflation, we would have won!
Is it you straight up expectation that prices will never rise again? Or that after a period of inflation they will return to what they were before? The level of inflation in this country dropped massively over the past year
Wages increased, particularly for the bottom brackets. These are just facts. I'm not talking about perceptions but reality!
And as for perceptions, Republican voters are suddenly "feeling good" about the economy – without the core reality shifting recently. In other words, this has everything to do with "the vibe economy".
Well it's an issue that will be going away so there's that. I mean i think the issue was unwinnable because yaknow there was a dem president for the last 4 year even though we all remember this stuff starting under Trump. I suppose dems could just lie and say we'll lower prices.
Inflation is 2.5% though some items are above and some are below (ironically the inflation rate under Trump in 2028 before Covid was 2.4%). This is not talking down. This is trying to have a fact based foundation for a discussion so it doesn't become what you just heard on Tic Toc. Then we should understand the pain that many are feeling and think about solutions especially about the housing/rental prices. Also, we should point out that all of Trump's so-called financial policies will dramatically increase inflation.
The food is one thing, as is gas. What never gets talked about is housing and rents.... in many places shitbox studios going for $800/month are now north of $1200.... even historic wage growth won't help with that...
It's not like Democrats ran on this issue. But, as usual, Democrats failed to fight back. The Republicans won in 2004 by using gay marriage as a club. Democrats have three choices when they try to do this: Agree with the attacks, fight the attacks, or do nothing.
I'm not sure what your recommendation is here. Fight back (i.e. run on the issue). Agree with the attacks (and risk losing a base that was already less enthused?)
If it's not Trans they'll find something else or invent it. Of course they can't run on their policies of tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation of big companies.
Laughable to think this election made a statement about sports of all things. There's a ton of articles by now seeking out Biden -> Trump voters, specifically asking them why they voted Republican, and it's simply inflation, inflation, housing prices, rent, insurance, the disruption of the past four years, feeling like things were better under Trump, that he said a lot of crazy things but didn't actually do them, things actually felt just fine under Trump and then went crazy under Biden, Trump's going to end inflation but keep job growth and income gains, etc., etc. But sure, let's pile on to trans people and blame them for all this. Great stuff, this is the recriminations and scapegoating I can always look forward to after we lose an election.
Anecdotal: Sunday, while having winter tires mounted on our car, I spoke to the two people in the waiting room about the election. A middle-aged woman was so alarmed that she was seriously investigating moving abroad. An elderly man said he, unenthused by either candidate, held his nose and voted for Trump. His reason? That Trump had promised to "stop the wars".
I'm not gonna wade into the trans issue in terms of a policy/civil rights debate, but I suspect you're wrong about it not swinging votes. Dave Chappelle's highly successful anti-trans stand-up shtick doesn't exist in a bubble insulated from electoral salience. It wouldn't be the first time that being at the tip of the spear on culture war issues cracked up the Democrats' coalition.
At the very least, the Democrats need to acknowledge they're on the wrong side of public opinion on this and update their messaging. They were winning the argument in the Roy Cooper era but once Republicans figured out a way to make it about children, they've been on offense and made considerable inroads. Pretending that they haven't and hoping people will be naturally co-opted by the gravity of civil rights acceptance might work, but it's risky.
The more serious reckoning needs to happen with illegal immigration and I won't pull punches on this. If the Democrats had to have their asses handed to them two weeks ago, I was hoping it would be unambiguously because of their unacceptable stewardship of immigration policy. The verdict wasn't definitive and Dems are interpreting it as giving them permission to stay the course on an asylum platform that is unequivocally batshit insane.
And honestly, that includes the reform plan pitched this spring which still allowed for 5,000 people PER DAY to manipulate the asylum process and cut in front of millions of people trying to immigrate legally. If anything, Democrats were lucky Trump sabotaged that bill because allowing 5,000 new asylum manipulators per day would not have stanched the deluge of crossings. The borders would be just as clogged now as they were a year ago and the issue would have been more front and center during the general election with people still as angry about the border in November as they were in February. The executive order Biden passed in lieu of the border reform bill did a lot more to cool down this issue than the reform bill would have.
Herein lies the risk for Democrats in the months to come. Trump will be carrying out deportations and, at least until there's tangible economic pain felt by consumers, these deportations will be broadly popular. If the Democrats choose to spend an inordinate amount of time in the next year outraged about sending illegal immigrants back home, they will have once again misread popular opinion badly and position themselves for another disappointing cycle.
Pretending that the Trump surge was entirely about inflation does nobody on our side any favors. It's not as if the demographics that surged to Trump this year did so out of this blue. 2024 wasn't 2016. The trend lines have been in motion for a few cycles now. We have a much bigger problem with American voters than the price of eggs being too high.
Yes she did; 80% of her ads in GA were on the economy and inflation. I keep hearing these alternative realities where Biden never held public speeches touting his Administration's accomplishments the past 2 years and Dems didn't campaign on the economy. All of that happened-ya'll will have to find a new boogeyman.
I'm going to get a lot of flak for this, but there is a perception that the cultural/sexual pendulum has swung, way, way too far to the left. Many voters were responding to that as well.
Remember the flak Mark Udall got for being a one note Johnny on abortion rights? Looks like almost the whole party made that mistake this time. It’s an important subject, and a vote winner talked about the right way (which is different in different places). It’s not the only damn thing people care about.
Seth Moulton is the idiot who tried to stop Nancy Pelosi from being re-elected as House Speaker – without Moulton being able to recruit anyone to run against her. Had he challenged her himself, I suspect Moulton would have received two votes: his own and Jared Golden’s.
"if they don't 100% agree with our orthodox view, often defined by the far left, then they're just bad people, they're morally wrong. That’s not going to win us any elections.” I mean how many Republicans did Harris campaign with? I don't think this is the problem.
Not a popular opinion, judging by the comments here, but I maintain my view that these comments from officials are a waste of time and counter-productive. All his comments (and similar from other officials) does is create infighting in the party.
Everyone and their dog is going to pop up and say that we need to change our policies to better align with *their* policies. Magically, agreeing with them is the one secret to winning elections — unfortunately, that magic permeates across the entire ideological spectrum, as everyone from the most centrist to the most progressive democrats, and all in between, are of this view.
Fighting over Moulton's or Sanders' or anyone else's comments is a waste of our time. It's a waste of their time to make the comment in the first place! There's no magical policy or ideological change that would have made Harris president with a trifecta. This was the most policy-bereft election of my entire life.
Agreed, it's all so very pointless. What did Republicans need to do to get back in after Obama's re-election? What did we have to do after Bush's? Why does anyone think we need to argue social issues to have a chance to win in 2028? Trump didn't do anything to fix his losing 2020 coalition, he just ran again and said things were better under him and worse now. But no, some Dems want to talk about women's sports now...the only thing we need to do is wait for people to get mad at Trump again, and run on broadly popular things that will address what people are mad about, and improve their lives.
Not direct at you but why O'Malley? He failed to get his Lt. Governor elected leaving Maryland with Hogan for eight years. His Presidential campaign in 16 went nowhere and I have no idea what he has been up to since? Wickler seems like the best of this group just because he did the best of the seven keeping the race within a point and believes in year-round organizing and party building.
As a part time Arizonan, I disagree with your conclusion. Katie Hobbs is highly unpopular with Arizonans. She only won by 17,000 votes in 2022 against Kari Lake, and Hobbs is viewed as much more unpopular than when she ran.
As to what Kelly has done on immigration, he challenged Biden's position, as did almost every Democrat in Arizona.
I'm not ready to predict 2026, because we don't know the damage that a Trump administration is going to cause to Arizona, but his proposal on deportation and tariffs could be devastating to Arizona that is dependent on immigrants for agriculture, construction, and hospitality and it's industries are heavily import/export.
There is talk of Kimberly Yee, treasurer, running for governor. She is viewed as a normal Republican, and if she could get through a primary, I believe she would be hard to beat unless we have a blue tsunami.
As attitudes stand now, I'm not sure Hobbs would win against anybody, including a typical Arizona R loon, but 2026 is a long way out.
I think a variety of reasons. Hobbs is a decent administrator, but doesn't communicate well. I believe that was her biggest issue in 2022's election and why it was so close. Then there was an immigration issue in Arizona that got effectively pinned on Democrats. Arizona also has a significant unhoused problem that got tied to immigration, even though few in the homeless encampments are Latino. Crime has also been hyped even though statistically it's down. That being said, I was robbed at 4am in our backyard this summer with a knife to my throat, so I find it hard to say it's not a problem. If my standard poodle didn't take a chunk out of the guy's leg, I'm not sure how it would have ended.
I'm so sorry you had to deal with that. I'm glad you're still with us. I'd be curious to see what H2Hs look like in a year with Yee or other potential Republicans.
Time for Democrats to get the news media to point out that "Trump lacks a mandate from a majority of American voters". And to ask Trump and other Republican politicians: "Lacking a mandate from a majority of American voters, how will you work with Democrats to achieve compromise solutions that have broad support?"
By my estimation there's still at least 100,000 votes to count in NYC. So, that figure should go down further. We know that New York likes to take its time for no reason.
President Biden could have used his bully pulpit more effectively to name and shame the companies that exploited the Covid pandemic and the logistics crisis to massively increase their profit margins.
Moreover, Biden and Democrats could have highlighted data showing the percentage increases in CEO pay and compensation, contrasted with that of ordinary American workers. (Yes, for a president or top politician to do this would be "untraditional")
That would have placed the Biden Administration – and Democrats – squarely on the side of working families.
One more thing: Democrats could and should have enabled Medicare to negotiate ALL drugs, not just a very short list. (But, hey, the pharmaceutical industry and lobbyists are strong.)
Meanwhile, President Biden and Democrats could have published lists comparing American and European drug prices. That would have underscored how Americans are being fleeced by the price-gouging pharmaceutical industry. I have a really, really hard time seeing why Americans should have the questionable "privilege" of paying massively more for the same drugs.
We saw some dems attempt this very gently. I think if you have politicians or the government go after American companies aggressively I think that would turn off a lot of Americans. Idk it's a difficult thread to needle and ultimately i don't think it would have worked or been effective politically.
The obvious strategy is to concentrate on highlighting the most egregious examples. By underscoring that *most* companies are responsible and by avoiding a broad attack, you counteract the perception that you are anti-business.
But for the worst price-gougers you do it loudly, not gently!
The fake news conspiracy nonsense has proliferated even towards the media now. As we speak now the media is falling hook line and sinker for the bullshit lies of the McCormick campaign crying wolf that certain counties in Pennsylvania were trying to defy the law and count "illegal" ballots. Let's be fully clear: there's nothing illegal about these ballots. They weren't cast by scary convicts or migrants, nor was there any cheating involved with their actual casting. They are only deemed "illegal" because they have incorrectly marked dates or lack signatures, which would make them by law potentially "invalid" but not illegal. The media once more continues to stoke the flames of paranoia and disappoint. Disgusting.
Any discussion of how many ballots they're talking about where this applies? And are they ballots that have already been tentatively counted or are they in limbo pending a court ruling?
JUDGES: Majority Leader is finally trying to pick up the pace on Senate confirmation of Biden’s judicial nominations. Yesterday alone, Schumer filed cloture on eight judges, which I believe is a new record for him. (I don’t understand why he wasn’t doing this far earlier.) As expected, Republicans were hitting the brakes, last night demanding roll-call votes on simple things such as moving back and forth between legislative and executive session – something that otherwise invariably gets done through unanimous consent.
EDIT: Today, just now, Republicans wasted more time by walking out and denying the Senate a quorum on the floor.
Elections have consequences. As of last Thursday, 14 November, there were 65 judicial vacancies. Any vacancies that Biden, Schumer and Durbin fail to fill, will be filled by Trump.
Me? No, I think there will be a massive power-grab to accommodate Trump and his autocratic impatience, and that the GOP will blow up a lot of written and unwritten Senate and House rules. But Blue Slips is not the only thing slowing down Biden’s nominations, although it does get the most focus...
As of last Thursday: "There are now 29 pending [judicial] nominees: 17 waiting for floor votes, 6 waiting to be reported out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and 6 waiting for hearings."
But... Republicans have shown an ability to play the long game on a lot of these rules, especially with more establishment leadership in the senate. Which accurately describes Thune.
Much like the filibuster, the survival of blue slips depends heavily their recognition of how much that rule benefits them more than it benefits us. Do republican senators want to deal with a future dem president putting liberal district judges in their far right states that have had a consistently conservative district judge system for generations?
I'm guessing this is an overestimation on their part. Democrats not only managed to win in 3 red senate seats in 2018, but also West Virginia of all places no less. There's also the fact that 2026 will likely be a midterm referendum election year and Trump won't be on the ballot to bail their sorry butts. Granted the elections will now be vs incumbents and open in cases like Ohio, and perhaps even Iowa if Grassley falls ill, but we'll have to see.
Mitchell said his analysis of the 45th District shows that there are about 13,000 ballots left to be counted in the district. He said ballots cast before election day had a 5.1% advantage for Democrats, in-person voting on election day had a Republican advantage of 15%, and votes counted after election day skewed blue by 18.5%.
That pattern is driven by young voters, Mitchell said, who “end up voting later than everyone else,” and tend to lean more liberal.
Mitchell said there are more than 4,600 ballots in the 45th District that weren’t counted initially because of clerical issues, including ballots that weren’t signed, or signed with a signature that didn’t match the voter information on file.
If the number of outstanding votes shown on NBC's county map is right, then it definitely matters. Their estimates shows 48,800 remaining votes just in the counties of Philadelphia, Bucks, Chester, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Erie, Lackawanna, Mercer, and Lycoming counties along with a spattering of thousands more in the remainder of counties. I'm not convinced they're right, but at least thus far, the estimated numbers haven't been too far off when counties like Montgomery and (just now) Delaware came in.
I hope you’re right. But it’s strange that NBC is showing an estimate of just 18,000 uncounted votes statewide in Pennsylvania. That said, that estimate has fluctuated wildly ever since Election Night, and with no obvious pattern.
Also really curious that NBC is showing a *higher* overall vote count than Pennsylvania’s SoS’ official election site is showing. They’ve certainly not been conspicuous when it comes to clarity or transparency.
I'm guessing that the confusion over number of ballots left to count is due to the issue of which can be counted. From what I have read, counties are following different rules and there is certain litigation--all over whether a ballot that arrived by election day can be counted when the date on the outside envelope is blank or erroneous. Dems say one can't take away a person's right to vote over minutia that cannot make any difference (the ballot arrived on time). R's say the law is the law. I recall the PA Supreme Court faced this issue but not the specifics. News stories say it specified that it was not deciding this particular issue.
Looks like more than 11,000 new votes came in from Alaska today there were Peltola-friendly. They dropped Begich's number down a point and Peltola up a point. It's now 48.5 Begich, 46.3 Peltola. Seems like it could help her in the ranked-choice tabulation.
Earlier today, The Downballot’s live tracker dropped Begich’s lead from 2.6% to 2.2%. When all is said and done, it would be magnificent if the media’s race calls for Begich and McCormick proved to be premature! Cherry on the pie would be Bohannan emerging as the victor over Miller-Meeks.
Ranked choice itself may survive, as the "no" on repeal finally moved ahead yesterday. It seems that the better Peltola does the better RCV does, but it's probably too soon to make a call.
217. Votes from Merced came in. SoS site has not changed the numbers on what is left in each county since the recent reports. Of course, for persons not closely involved (like me), even if you know how many votes are left in a county, you do not know how many are in CA-13. It has parts of five counties and not all of any of them.
Stanislaus County has 32K left to count and is about 30% in CA-13 so I'm guessing it may have about 10K left in CA-13. Per SoS site, it expects to post results by 6:00 tonight.
Today's numbers from L.A. : T 23 S 18, gain of five votes. OC big batch: T 1243 S 1036, gain of 207 votes. 207+5+102 (previous lead)= 314 current lead for Tran. That is indeed larger than Duarte's lead in CA-13, which is now 227 votes. We must have some stunning Stanislaus votes and satisfactory San Joaquin votes that were counted today. There is often a lag in the Unprocessed Ballot Status page. I am starting to believe that Duarte can be made into a one-term wonder.
Well, the good news is that was quick. Perhaps in future days there can be more comments from realistic and knowledgeable folks like skaje (and many others) and the entire day's discussion won't be so . . . well, quickly, uh, "read."
What are you referencing? Did it get hidden?
Thank you for responding. I should have let it be.
You had the right idea.
Sounds like a lot of projection going on with those two. I'd like to hear specific Democrats and specific issues.
It is naive to think that prices will go down to pre Covid levels. That is unfortunately not how inflation works. The only way to achieve that is through a massive recession which is even worse for many people. Fortunately, wages are increasing faster than inflation now and have almost caught up with the inflation bump. That is not to say that the problem is over for many Americans but average wage growth has caught up.
The wage growth was real - and in fact it was bigger for the working class than the middle class for quite a while now.
As for going forward - well its not our problem anymore. We get to sit back and say - "why havent you fixed this yet".
even "historic" wage gains of 10-15% mean the people on the bottom are making $16.75 instead of $15..... meanwhile rent is up 200 bucks as month as are groceries...
Dems REALLY NEED to get it through their heads. Life for the bottom 30% is absurdly expensive and increasingly miserable...
Of course, actual out of pocket housing costs went up more for renters than for existing owner occupants, and OER increases for owner occupants were accompanied by massive increases in home equity. Renters are more likely to be working class than middle class. Working class folks are also more likely to have to pay for car repairs or rideshare or another used car at the bottom of the market where prices went up the most. Experience of inflation differs, so just because we usually use a common deflator for all incomes, and nominal incomes rose more as a percentage for the 40th percentile than the 80th (I assume) doesn’t necessarily mean real incomes actually rose more for lower incomes when comparing the actual disparate baskets of goods purchased at the various income levels.
The problem is that there really aren't any easy solutions to bring prices down. in the near future. We could have hit harder that Trump's policy of tariffs and mass deportations will make the issue worse.
No one said inflation was ok. What they said was that the conditions necessary to cause deflation are worse. Which is true.
Explaining that deflation is bad is not talking down to people.
Its more naive to think that it would have worked. Harris had no answer because there was no answer.
If Biden could have done something about it without pushing us into a recession, he surely would have.
So Biden and then Harris were stuck trying to basically paper over inflation and point to the robustness of the economy inflation aside. And that does sound like talking down, but its mostly just the best option for messaging.
Predictably it didnt work because well - inflation was a big deal to alot of people.
They failed to communicate with the people. Especially Biden, who should have been doing it all the way through.
I sound like a broken record, but I really believe lack of effective communication is the biggest problem Democrats have. Especially when they're in power. And it's rarely the "media's" fault. It's Democrats' lack of creativity and boldness. Or merely doing Politics 101.
Dear American people - we get it, prices are high. You all saved too much money (and frankly we probably printed too much) and now you are trying to spend it all at once.
But there is literally nothing we can do about it except on the very margins of a few products (and you will then spend the money you saved on those products raising the price of some other product), without you losing your job.
They cant do a Trump and say - trust us, we'll fix this - because well - why havent they? They are in charge.
The idea that messaging could have solved the problem despite the facts on the ground seems like just another way of talking down to people honestly.
If only Biden had brought more attention to how much is administration sucked at dealing with inflation, we would have won!
I agree with that, but that's neither "preaching down to people" nor a policy issue that is "out of touch with the American people."
Inflation has absolutely gotten better for most people.
Is it you straight up expectation that prices will never rise again? Or that after a period of inflation they will return to what they were before? The level of inflation in this country dropped massively over the past year
Wages increased, particularly for the bottom brackets. These are just facts. I'm not talking about perceptions but reality!
And as for perceptions, Republican voters are suddenly "feeling good" about the economy – without the core reality shifting recently. In other words, this has everything to do with "the vibe economy".
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/13/consumer-sentiment-republican-democrat-switch
Well it's an issue that will be going away so there's that. I mean i think the issue was unwinnable because yaknow there was a dem president for the last 4 year even though we all remember this stuff starting under Trump. I suppose dems could just lie and say we'll lower prices.
As I was saying yesterday, it"s apparently important for Dems to lie as much as possible because even our own partisans don't believe the truth
Inflation is 2.5% though some items are above and some are below (ironically the inflation rate under Trump in 2028 before Covid was 2.4%). This is not talking down. This is trying to have a fact based foundation for a discussion so it doesn't become what you just heard on Tic Toc. Then we should understand the pain that many are feeling and think about solutions especially about the housing/rental prices. Also, we should point out that all of Trump's so-called financial policies will dramatically increase inflation.
The food is one thing, as is gas. What never gets talked about is housing and rents.... in many places shitbox studios going for $800/month are now north of $1200.... even historic wage growth won't help with that...
The problem is prices still went up by a lot before easing up. They didn't go back down to where they were pre-2021.
They're not talking about inflation, they're talking about culture war nonsense. Moulton was going after Trans last week
It's not like Democrats ran on this issue. But, as usual, Democrats failed to fight back. The Republicans won in 2004 by using gay marriage as a club. Democrats have three choices when they try to do this: Agree with the attacks, fight the attacks, or do nothing.
I'm not sure what your recommendation is here. Fight back (i.e. run on the issue). Agree with the attacks (and risk losing a base that was already less enthused?)
If it's not Trans they'll find something else or invent it. Of course they can't run on their policies of tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation of big companies.
Laughable to think this election made a statement about sports of all things. There's a ton of articles by now seeking out Biden -> Trump voters, specifically asking them why they voted Republican, and it's simply inflation, inflation, housing prices, rent, insurance, the disruption of the past four years, feeling like things were better under Trump, that he said a lot of crazy things but didn't actually do them, things actually felt just fine under Trump and then went crazy under Biden, Trump's going to end inflation but keep job growth and income gains, etc., etc. But sure, let's pile on to trans people and blame them for all this. Great stuff, this is the recriminations and scapegoating I can always look forward to after we lose an election.
This is Christmas time for dems with grievances
Anecdotal: Sunday, while having winter tires mounted on our car, I spoke to the two people in the waiting room about the election. A middle-aged woman was so alarmed that she was seriously investigating moving abroad. An elderly man said he, unenthused by either candidate, held his nose and voted for Trump. His reason? That Trump had promised to "stop the wars".
I'm not gonna wade into the trans issue in terms of a policy/civil rights debate, but I suspect you're wrong about it not swinging votes. Dave Chappelle's highly successful anti-trans stand-up shtick doesn't exist in a bubble insulated from electoral salience. It wouldn't be the first time that being at the tip of the spear on culture war issues cracked up the Democrats' coalition.
At the very least, the Democrats need to acknowledge they're on the wrong side of public opinion on this and update their messaging. They were winning the argument in the Roy Cooper era but once Republicans figured out a way to make it about children, they've been on offense and made considerable inroads. Pretending that they haven't and hoping people will be naturally co-opted by the gravity of civil rights acceptance might work, but it's risky.
The more serious reckoning needs to happen with illegal immigration and I won't pull punches on this. If the Democrats had to have their asses handed to them two weeks ago, I was hoping it would be unambiguously because of their unacceptable stewardship of immigration policy. The verdict wasn't definitive and Dems are interpreting it as giving them permission to stay the course on an asylum platform that is unequivocally batshit insane.
And honestly, that includes the reform plan pitched this spring which still allowed for 5,000 people PER DAY to manipulate the asylum process and cut in front of millions of people trying to immigrate legally. If anything, Democrats were lucky Trump sabotaged that bill because allowing 5,000 new asylum manipulators per day would not have stanched the deluge of crossings. The borders would be just as clogged now as they were a year ago and the issue would have been more front and center during the general election with people still as angry about the border in November as they were in February. The executive order Biden passed in lieu of the border reform bill did a lot more to cool down this issue than the reform bill would have.
Herein lies the risk for Democrats in the months to come. Trump will be carrying out deportations and, at least until there's tangible economic pain felt by consumers, these deportations will be broadly popular. If the Democrats choose to spend an inordinate amount of time in the next year outraged about sending illegal immigrants back home, they will have once again misread popular opinion badly and position themselves for another disappointing cycle.
Pretending that the Trump surge was entirely about inflation does nobody on our side any favors. It's not as if the demographics that surged to Trump this year did so out of this blue. 2024 wasn't 2016. The trend lines have been in motion for a few cycles now. We have a much bigger problem with American voters than the price of eggs being too high.
Yes she did; 80% of her ads in GA were on the economy and inflation. I keep hearing these alternative realities where Biden never held public speeches touting his Administration's accomplishments the past 2 years and Dems didn't campaign on the economy. All of that happened-ya'll will have to find a new boogeyman.
I'm going to get a lot of flak for this, but there is a perception that the cultural/sexual pendulum has swung, way, way too far to the left. Many voters were responding to that as well.
Remember the flak Mark Udall got for being a one note Johnny on abortion rights? Looks like almost the whole party made that mistake this time. It’s an important subject, and a vote winner talked about the right way (which is different in different places). It’s not the only damn thing people care about.
Specifics guys.
Moulton - Conservative guy thinks Dems are too liberal. News at 11. His challenge of Pelosi and run for President were also vaguely delusional.
He ran for president? Must have not been paying attention that week
It's still amazing how many candidates ran in the 2020 cycle and whose runs are now forgotten.
Seth Moulton is the idiot who tried to stop Nancy Pelosi from being re-elected as House Speaker – without Moulton being able to recruit anyone to run against her. Had he challenged her himself, I suspect Moulton would have received two votes: his own and Jared Golden’s.
"if they don't 100% agree with our orthodox view, often defined by the far left, then they're just bad people, they're morally wrong. That’s not going to win us any elections.” I mean how many Republicans did Harris campaign with? I don't think this is the problem.
Not a popular opinion, judging by the comments here, but I maintain my view that these comments from officials are a waste of time and counter-productive. All his comments (and similar from other officials) does is create infighting in the party.
Everyone and their dog is going to pop up and say that we need to change our policies to better align with *their* policies. Magically, agreeing with them is the one secret to winning elections — unfortunately, that magic permeates across the entire ideological spectrum, as everyone from the most centrist to the most progressive democrats, and all in between, are of this view.
Fighting over Moulton's or Sanders' or anyone else's comments is a waste of our time. It's a waste of their time to make the comment in the first place! There's no magical policy or ideological change that would have made Harris president with a trifecta. This was the most policy-bereft election of my entire life.
Agreed, it's all so very pointless. What did Republicans need to do to get back in after Obama's re-election? What did we have to do after Bush's? Why does anyone think we need to argue social issues to have a chance to win in 2028? Trump didn't do anything to fix his losing 2020 coalition, he just ran again and said things were better under him and worse now. But no, some Dems want to talk about women's sports now...the only thing we need to do is wait for people to get mad at Trump again, and run on broadly popular things that will address what people are mad about, and improve their lives.
Can Rahm please just go away?
No. You forget that this is the shittiest timeline.
I wish but money talks, unfortunately.
Whose money, in this case?
Underwood still has to wait on Durbin (and other primary foes after Durbin retires)
I like her chances in a primary and yes Durbin needs to hang it up and take his precious blue slips with him.
Not direct at you but why O'Malley? He failed to get his Lt. Governor elected leaving Maryland with Hogan for eight years. His Presidential campaign in 16 went nowhere and I have no idea what he has been up to since? Wickler seems like the best of this group just because he did the best of the seven keeping the race within a point and believes in year-round organizing and party building.
Rahm can get bent. I don't want him anywhere near an elected position.
As a part time Arizonan, I disagree with your conclusion. Katie Hobbs is highly unpopular with Arizonans. She only won by 17,000 votes in 2022 against Kari Lake, and Hobbs is viewed as much more unpopular than when she ran.
As to what Kelly has done on immigration, he challenged Biden's position, as did almost every Democrat in Arizona.
I'm not ready to predict 2026, because we don't know the damage that a Trump administration is going to cause to Arizona, but his proposal on deportation and tariffs could be devastating to Arizona that is dependent on immigrants for agriculture, construction, and hospitality and it's industries are heavily import/export.
There is talk of Kimberly Yee, treasurer, running for governor. She is viewed as a normal Republican, and if she could get through a primary, I believe she would be hard to beat unless we have a blue tsunami.
As attitudes stand now, I'm not sure Hobbs would win against anybody, including a typical Arizona R loon, but 2026 is a long way out.
Any particular reasons Hobbs is highly unpopular?
I think a variety of reasons. Hobbs is a decent administrator, but doesn't communicate well. I believe that was her biggest issue in 2022's election and why it was so close. Then there was an immigration issue in Arizona that got effectively pinned on Democrats. Arizona also has a significant unhoused problem that got tied to immigration, even though few in the homeless encampments are Latino. Crime has also been hyped even though statistically it's down. That being said, I was robbed at 4am in our backyard this summer with a knife to my throat, so I find it hard to say it's not a problem. If my standard poodle didn't take a chunk out of the guy's leg, I'm not sure how it would have ended.
I'm so sorry you had to deal with that. I'm glad you're still with us. I'd be curious to see what H2Hs look like in a year with Yee or other potential Republicans.
Is there any actual evidence that she is unpopular? The few recent polls we had were at worst mixed.
Trump at 49.9%, doesn't change anything but at least a majority didn't vote for that diphit
I clearly said it doesn't change anything
Changes nothing, but it does matter. At least to me.
Time for Democrats to get the news media to point out that "Trump lacks a mandate from a majority of American voters". And to ask Trump and other Republican politicians: "Lacking a mandate from a majority of American voters, how will you work with Democrats to achieve compromise solutions that have broad support?"
By my estimation there's still at least 100,000 votes to count in NYC. So, that figure should go down further. We know that New York likes to take its time for no reason.
I'm still trying to figure out why it's taking 3 weeks to count California votes.
That I can understand. They have tons and tons of mail-in ballots. New York doesn't have that amount or percentage.
That and they do a lot of verification on each one. Apparently CA law has pretty strict rules on this, which is why it's so time consuming.
The truth doesn't matter. All that matters is "the story", and the story is that Trump won big.
INFLATION AND MESSAGING:
President Biden could have used his bully pulpit more effectively to name and shame the companies that exploited the Covid pandemic and the logistics crisis to massively increase their profit margins.
Moreover, Biden and Democrats could have highlighted data showing the percentage increases in CEO pay and compensation, contrasted with that of ordinary American workers. (Yes, for a president or top politician to do this would be "untraditional")
That would have placed the Biden Administration – and Democrats – squarely on the side of working families.
One more thing: Democrats could and should have enabled Medicare to negotiate ALL drugs, not just a very short list. (But, hey, the pharmaceutical industry and lobbyists are strong.)
Meanwhile, President Biden and Democrats could have published lists comparing American and European drug prices. That would have underscored how Americans are being fleeced by the price-gouging pharmaceutical industry. I have a really, really hard time seeing why Americans should have the questionable "privilege" of paying massively more for the same drugs.
We saw some dems attempt this very gently. I think if you have politicians or the government go after American companies aggressively I think that would turn off a lot of Americans. Idk it's a difficult thread to needle and ultimately i don't think it would have worked or been effective politically.
Answering such absurd gotcha questions are the equivalent of denying you’re a pig-fucker. Yes, you may be right, but the damage is done.
The obvious strategy is to concentrate on highlighting the most egregious examples. By underscoring that *most* companies are responsible and by avoiding a broad attack, you counteract the perception that you are anti-business.
But for the worst price-gougers you do it loudly, not gently!
The fake news conspiracy nonsense has proliferated even towards the media now. As we speak now the media is falling hook line and sinker for the bullshit lies of the McCormick campaign crying wolf that certain counties in Pennsylvania were trying to defy the law and count "illegal" ballots. Let's be fully clear: there's nothing illegal about these ballots. They weren't cast by scary convicts or migrants, nor was there any cheating involved with their actual casting. They are only deemed "illegal" because they have incorrectly marked dates or lack signatures, which would make them by law potentially "invalid" but not illegal. The media once more continues to stoke the flames of paranoia and disappoint. Disgusting.
Stop watching for profit news media. They can all go out of business for all i care.
Any discussion of how many ballots they're talking about where this applies? And are they ballots that have already been tentatively counted or are they in limbo pending a court ruling?
JUDGES: Majority Leader is finally trying to pick up the pace on Senate confirmation of Biden’s judicial nominations. Yesterday alone, Schumer filed cloture on eight judges, which I believe is a new record for him. (I don’t understand why he wasn’t doing this far earlier.) As expected, Republicans were hitting the brakes, last night demanding roll-call votes on simple things such as moving back and forth between legislative and executive session – something that otherwise invariably gets done through unanimous consent.
EDIT: Today, just now, Republicans wasted more time by walking out and denying the Senate a quorum on the floor.
Elections have consequences. As of last Thursday, 14 November, there were 65 judicial vacancies. Any vacancies that Biden, Schumer and Durbin fail to fill, will be filled by Trump.
And don't forget Lauren McFerran's renomination as head of the NLRB.
You think republicans will respect blue slips?
Me? No, I think there will be a massive power-grab to accommodate Trump and his autocratic impatience, and that the GOP will blow up a lot of written and unwritten Senate and House rules. But Blue Slips is not the only thing slowing down Biden’s nominations, although it does get the most focus...
As of last Thursday: "There are now 29 pending [judicial] nominees: 17 waiting for floor votes, 6 waiting to be reported out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and 6 waiting for hearings."
https://www.acslaw.org/on-the-bench-week-of-november-14/
I fear this is likely to be right.
But... Republicans have shown an ability to play the long game on a lot of these rules, especially with more establishment leadership in the senate. Which accurately describes Thune.
Much like the filibuster, the survival of blue slips depends heavily their recognition of how much that rule benefits them more than it benefits us. Do republican senators want to deal with a future dem president putting liberal district judges in their far right states that have had a consistently conservative district judge system for generations?
Unless they feel like we can't win back the senate anytime soon considering were pretty much out of red state senators.
Very well could be their calculus. We will see.
Would be a very risky move on their part.
I'm guessing this is an overestimation on their part. Democrats not only managed to win in 3 red senate seats in 2018, but also West Virginia of all places no less. There's also the fact that 2026 will likely be a midterm referendum election year and Trump won't be on the ballot to bail their sorry butts. Granted the elections will now be vs incumbents and open in cases like Ohio, and perhaps even Iowa if Grassley falls ill, but we'll have to see.
CA 45
Mitchell said his analysis of the 45th District shows that there are about 13,000 ballots left to be counted in the district. He said ballots cast before election day had a 5.1% advantage for Democrats, in-person voting on election day had a Republican advantage of 15%, and votes counted after election day skewed blue by 18.5%.
That pattern is driven by young voters, Mitchell said, who “end up voting later than everyone else,” and tend to lean more liberal.
Mitchell said there are more than 4,600 ballots in the 45th District that weren’t counted initially because of clerical issues, including ballots that weren’t signed, or signed with a signature that didn’t match the voter information on file.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-11-19/michelle-steel-derek-tran-ca45-congressional-race-votes-close
RHODE ISLAND. US Sen Jack Reed (D), 75, tells WPRI he plans to seek reelection next year.
A big batch of votes were counted from Delaware County that appear to have gone 2,074-992 for Casey. McCormick's margin now down to 16,374.
Any chance that it matters? And, yes, I know that a recount is scheduled. I also wonder when completion of the initial count is scheduled.
If the number of outstanding votes shown on NBC's county map is right, then it definitely matters. Their estimates shows 48,800 remaining votes just in the counties of Philadelphia, Bucks, Chester, Allegheny, Westmoreland, Erie, Lackawanna, Mercer, and Lycoming counties along with a spattering of thousands more in the remainder of counties. I'm not convinced they're right, but at least thus far, the estimated numbers haven't been too far off when counties like Montgomery and (just now) Delaware came in.
I hope you’re right. But it’s strange that NBC is showing an estimate of just 18,000 uncounted votes statewide in Pennsylvania. That said, that estimate has fluctuated wildly ever since Election Night, and with no obvious pattern.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-senate-results
If, by some miracle, Senator Bob Casey does eke out a win, there’s going to be a serious meltdown in the McCormick Campaign and in the MAGA camp.
Agreed. The numbers don't match. Which is why I have some doubt about the county numbers.
Also really curious that NBC is showing a *higher* overall vote count than Pennsylvania’s SoS’ official election site is showing. They’ve certainly not been conspicuous when it comes to clarity or transparency.
https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/VoteByMethod?officeId=2&districtId=1&ElectionID=105&ElectionType=G&IsActive=1&isRetention=0
I'm guessing that the confusion over number of ballots left to count is due to the issue of which can be counted. From what I have read, counties are following different rules and there is certain litigation--all over whether a ballot that arrived by election day can be counted when the date on the outside envelope is blank or erroneous. Dems say one can't take away a person's right to vote over minutia that cannot make any difference (the ballot arrived on time). R's say the law is the law. I recall the PA Supreme Court faced this issue but not the specifics. News stories say it specified that it was not deciding this particular issue.
Looks like more than 11,000 new votes came in from Alaska today there were Peltola-friendly. They dropped Begich's number down a point and Peltola up a point. It's now 48.5 Begich, 46.3 Peltola. Seems like it could help her in the ranked-choice tabulation.
Earlier today, The Downballot’s live tracker dropped Begich’s lead from 2.6% to 2.2%. When all is said and done, it would be magnificent if the media’s race calls for Begich and McCormick proved to be premature! Cherry on the pie would be Bohannan emerging as the victor over Miller-Meeks.
Well, a man can dream...
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-live-results-tracker
Ranked choice itself may survive, as the "no" on repeal finally moved ahead yesterday. It seems that the better Peltola does the better RCV does, but it's probably too soon to make a call.
CA-13: Votes from Stanislaus County came in and Gray has cut Duarte's lead to 1,564.
It's down to 200 votes. Anyone know what's left?
217. Votes from Merced came in. SoS site has not changed the numbers on what is left in each county since the recent reports. Of course, for persons not closely involved (like me), even if you know how many votes are left in a county, you do not know how many are in CA-13. It has parts of five counties and not all of any of them.
You're right. My mistake.
Stanislaus County has 32K left to count and is about 30% in CA-13 so I'm guessing it may have about 10K left in CA-13. Per SoS site, it expects to post results by 6:00 tonight.
CA 45: Tran’s lead now 314. Bigger than Duarte’s.
Today's numbers from L.A. : T 23 S 18, gain of five votes. OC big batch: T 1243 S 1036, gain of 207 votes. 207+5+102 (previous lead)= 314 current lead for Tran. That is indeed larger than Duarte's lead in CA-13, which is now 227 votes. We must have some stunning Stanislaus votes and satisfactory San Joaquin votes that were counted today. There is often a lag in the Unprocessed Ballot Status page. I am starting to believe that Duarte can be made into a one-term wonder.
Well, the good news is that was quick. Perhaps in future days there can be more comments from realistic and knowledgeable folks like skaje (and many others) and the entire day's discussion won't be so . . . well, quickly, uh, "read."