Me? No, I think there will be a massive power-grab to accommodate Trump and his autocratic impatience, and that the GOP will blow up a lot of written and unwritten Senate and House rules. But Blue Slips is not the only thing slowing down Biden’s nominations, although it does get the most focus...
As of last Thursday: "There are now 29 pending [judicial] nominees: 17 waiting for floor votes, 6 waiting to be reported out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and 6 waiting for hearings."
But... Republicans have shown an ability to play the long game on a lot of these rules, especially with more establishment leadership in the senate. Which accurately describes Thune.
Much like the filibuster, the survival of blue slips depends heavily their recognition of how much that rule benefits them more than it benefits us. Do republican senators want to deal with a future dem president putting liberal district judges in their far right states that have had a consistently conservative district judge system for generations?
I'm guessing this is an overestimation on their part. Democrats not only managed to win in 3 red senate seats in 2018, but also West Virginia of all places no less. There's also the fact that 2026 will likely be a midterm referendum election year and Trump won't be on the ballot to bail their sorry butts. Granted the elections will now be vs incumbents and open in cases like Ohio, and perhaps even Iowa if Grassley falls ill, but we'll have to see.
You're forgetting the major caveat - Trump was on the ballot in 2024. Also it was a presidential election year. 2026 is a midterm and we don't know how GOP turnout will fare with Trump no longer on future ballots for presidential years.
The filibuster and blue slips are so different, though. The GOP will always want to elect their judges but do they need to bypass a filibuster? For their agenda, no. They have reconciliation and they can accomplish much of their work through that.
McConnell, and other GOP Senators are well aware that if they get rid of the filibuster, the floodgates are open and if the Dems get a trifecta, we’re doing all the things. The joint impediments are far lesser in their case because they don’t care to do much in the first place.
You think republicans will respect blue slips?
Me? No, I think there will be a massive power-grab to accommodate Trump and his autocratic impatience, and that the GOP will blow up a lot of written and unwritten Senate and House rules. But Blue Slips is not the only thing slowing down Biden’s nominations, although it does get the most focus...
As of last Thursday: "There are now 29 pending [judicial] nominees: 17 waiting for floor votes, 6 waiting to be reported out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and 6 waiting for hearings."
https://www.acslaw.org/on-the-bench-week-of-november-14/
I fear this is likely to be right.
But... Republicans have shown an ability to play the long game on a lot of these rules, especially with more establishment leadership in the senate. Which accurately describes Thune.
Much like the filibuster, the survival of blue slips depends heavily their recognition of how much that rule benefits them more than it benefits us. Do republican senators want to deal with a future dem president putting liberal district judges in their far right states that have had a consistently conservative district judge system for generations?
Unless they feel like we can't win back the senate anytime soon considering were pretty much out of red state senators.
Very well could be their calculus. We will see.
Would be a very risky move on their part.
I'm guessing this is an overestimation on their part. Democrats not only managed to win in 3 red senate seats in 2018, but also West Virginia of all places no less. There's also the fact that 2026 will likely be a midterm referendum election year and Trump won't be on the ballot to bail their sorry butts. Granted the elections will now be vs incumbents and open in cases like Ohio, and perhaps even Iowa if Grassley falls ill, but we'll have to see.
Winning WV, OH and MT in 2018 doesn’t seem like much of an argument considering what happened to them in 2024.
You're forgetting the major caveat - Trump was on the ballot in 2024. Also it was a presidential election year. 2026 is a midterm and we don't know how GOP turnout will fare with Trump no longer on future ballots for presidential years.
The filibuster and blue slips are so different, though. The GOP will always want to elect their judges but do they need to bypass a filibuster? For their agenda, no. They have reconciliation and they can accomplish much of their work through that.
McConnell, and other GOP Senators are well aware that if they get rid of the filibuster, the floodgates are open and if the Dems get a trifecta, we’re doing all the things. The joint impediments are far lesser in their case because they don’t care to do much in the first place.