Morning Digest: Darline Graham may be Trump's choice, but she doesn't have an easy path to a full term

Several better-known Republicans are running in the two-week sprint to the GOP nomination

South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham (left). (Credit: Darline Graham Facebook)

Leading Off

SC-Sen

South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to succeed her late brother just two weeks ago, will now face eight opponents in what will be a challenging campaign to keep her new job.

Tuesday was the deadline for Republicans to file for the special Aug. 11 primary to select a nominee to replace Lindsey Graham, who died unexpectedly earlier this month as he was pursuing a fifth term in the Senate.

While Graham had long supported her brother’s political career and even appeared in a campaign ad for him, she’d never held elected office until two weeks ago, when Gov. Henry McMaster chose her for what he reportedly believed would be a brief stint as a caretaker.

But Graham stunned the political world just a week later when she announced she’d seek a full term, with Donald Trump’s blessing. Some of her fellow Republicans, however, are openly questioning whether that will be enough to propel her to victory with so little time to establish a name for herself.

“She has a lot of work to do to win over the constituents that she hasn’t had the time [to meet] through a grassroots effort,” Chad Connelly, a former state party chair, told Axios last week.

And Graham will need to convince a majority, rather than just a simple plurality, of Republicans to keep her in office.

South Carolina, like many Southern states, requires candidates to win more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, a difficult bar to clear in such a packed contest. A second round of voting would take place on Aug. 25.

It’s also likely that Lindsey Graham’s legacy will dominate the race, and that’s not necessarily an asset for his sister.

The late senator’s uneasy relationship with South Carolina’s far-right base was on display in the month before he died, when Graham, despite his support from Trump and a huge financial advantage, scored just 57% of the vote in what turned out to be his final primary.

Wealthy businessman Mark Lynch, who took second with 29%, is one of the many candidates challenging Darline Graham next month, though a trio of better-established Republicans is also determined to test the new senator.

This roster includes Rep. Russell Fry, who rose to prominence in 2022 when he waged a successful primary challenge against incumbent Tom Rice, one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

Trump, who supported Fry four years ago, had initially sounded inclined to back him if he ran for Senate. Two weeks ago, MAGA’s master told the far-right outlet Newsmax that Fry was “somebody you can watch out for.” Those comments came in the same interview in which Trump said of Darline Graham, “I believe the sister is there only on an interim basis.”

Just days later, though, Trump publicly encouraged Graham to run for a full term, though that didn’t deter Fry from launching a bid. The congressman began his effort by promising to be “President Trump’s favorite U.S. Senator” and “a MAGA fighter you can count on.”

Fellow Rep. Ralph Norman, likewise, is touting himself as “a fighter who will stand with President Trump,” though, somewhat surprisingly, he also pledged to “carry on Lindsey Graham’s legacy!”

Norman hasn’t always been such a fan of the deceased senator. After the 2024 election, he spent several months contemplating challenging Graham for renomination, though he ultimately decided to wage an ill-fated bid for governor.

And Norman, a member of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and a wealthy real estate developer, is once again standing on the opposite side of Trump in an intraparty battle.

In 2023, Norman was one of just two members of Congress to endorse the presidential campaign of former Gov. Nikki Haley, an old ally from their days in South Carolina state government. (The other was Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, who is not seeking reelection.)

Trump didn’t seek to punish Norman for siding against him—the Post & Courier wrote last year that the congressman had been wise enough to notify Trump in advance—but it still may have harmed his campaign for a promotion this year.

Norman was one of several Republicans who campaigned to replace McMaster, who could not seek another term as governor. Trump, though, announced in May he was endorsing Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, McMaster’s choice for the job.

Norman still hoped he could win a spot in the runoff, but he was out of luck. Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson instead advanced to the second round with 29% and 26%, respectively, while Norman took a distant third with 17%.

Norman opted to endorse Wilson for the runoff, and this time, he would be on the winning side. Multiple polls soon showed the attorney general with a huge lead, and Trump responded by announcing he was supporting both Wilson and Evette.

But while Trump’s decision to back away from Evette’s doomed campaign—she would lose to Wilson in a landslide—was another reminder that his endorsement is hardly the last word in GOP primaries, yet another Senate hopeful joined the race already knowing what happens when you cross Trump one time too many.

That candidate is Mark Sanford, a one-time governor, two-time congressman, and briefly the world’s most famous hiker. But while Sanford’s bizarre 2009 sex scandal somehow didn’t destroy his electoral career, his second stint in Congress came to an end nine years later after primary voters ejected the ardent Trump critic.

Sanford then waged a quixotic bid against Trump in the 2020 primary, followed by a month-long campaign for his old House seat this spring before bailing ahead of the primary. He began his latest comeback attempt last weekend with a video focused on the national debt, which he warned will “wipe out our savings, and it could even destroy our republic.”

Four other Republicans are also running, but none have attracted much attention. The one major name who’d been in the mix, Evette, opted not to join the race.

Whoever emerges with the GOP nomination next month will take on pediatrician Annie Andrews, who secured the Democratic nod in June. Andrews remains the underdog in this conservative state, but she has the resources to get her message out. The Democrat finished June with over $4 million on hand, and unlike her eventual rival, she’s been busy stockpiling her resources for the general election.

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Election Recaps

SD-Gov

Gov. Larry Rhoden demolished wealthy businessman Toby Doeden 71-29 in South Dakota’s first-ever runoff on Tuesday night, even though Doeden had led 31-25 in the first round of voting in the Republican primary for governor last month. Rhoden will face Democrat Dan Ahlers in November.

GA-13

The special election to fill Georgia’s vacant 13th district will head to an Aug. 25 runoff between two Democrats after no candidate secured a majority on Tuesday night.

Activist Marcye Scott, the daughter of the late Rep. David Scott, took 46% of the vote while former Gwinnett County Board of Education chair Everton Blair earned 37%. The winner will serve out the final months of the congressman’s term for this safely blue seat in the Atlanta area.

However, neither will join the next Congress in January. Instead, that honor will almost certainly go to state Rep. Jasmine Clark, who easily won the Democratic primary for a full term in May but chose not to run in the special because she would have had to resign her seat in the legislature.

Senate

MN-Sen

The NRSC is boosting Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan ahead of her Aug. 11 Democratic primary with a digital ad ostensibly attacking her for being too progressive.

The spot, which was flagged by the political tipsheet Morning Take, opens with a clip of Flanagan wearing a hijab at a Somali market and delivering the greeting, “As-salamu alaykum.”

The NRSC’s narrator then picks up, declaring that Flanagan is supported by “Minnesota’s far-left Sen. Tina Smith,” who is not seeking reelection, adding that she is “promising to work with Bernie Sanders to obstruct Donald Trump.” The commercial goes on to feature a clip of Sanders declaring, “I have absolutely no doubt that Peggy is going to follow in Tina’s footsteps.”

There is no word on how much the NRSC is spending on these ads.

Flanagan faces Rep. Angie Craig two weeks from now in the Democratic primary. The NRSC is backing Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster, in the busy GOP contest.

Governors

AZ-Gov

The Democratic Governors Association plans to devote $10 million to helping Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs win a second term, the group tells The Washington Post.

The Republican Governors Association has yet to announce any plans to aid Andy Biggs, the far-right congressman who easily won last week’s GOP primary but has trailed Hobbs in all available polling.

The RGA responded to the paper’s inquiries by saying it “will continue to hold Katie Hobbs accountable for her dismal record,” but it did not commit to devoting resources to the race.

The general election, though, may be a bit less expensive than anticipated no matter what the RGA ends up doing. Healthcare businessman Hugh Lytle, who loaned his campaign $2 million, lost the primary for the new ​​No Labels Party to businesswoman Teri Ann Hourihan last week. Confusingly, though, Hourihan says on her website that she “rejected the No Labels Party endorsement.”

NV-Gov

Nevada Democrat Aaron Ford on Tuesday launched the first ad of his campaign for governor, a move that comes after Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and his allies spent the better part of the year unchallenged on the airwaves.

“Before I sued big utility and drug companies to lower costs, before I locked up violent criminals to protect Nevadans, I taught middle school math,” Ford, who is serving his second term as attorney general, tells the audience. “So I know the Lombardo-Trump economy doesn’t add up.”

Ford’s team informed the Nevada Independent the campaign is spending seven figures but did not provide further specifics. Lombardo and his allies have spent or reserved $18 million on advertising, according to AdImpact data provided to the site.

There has been almost no polling, however, to indicate whether or not the GOP’s offensive has worked as intended. A mid-July Public Policy Polling survey for Ford’s allies at the Democratic Governors Association showed a 44-44 deadlock, and no other established firms have released numbers over the last two months.

OH-Gov

Democrat Amy Acton launched her first ad on Tuesday, after Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and his backers spent roughly $9 million on the airwaves. Acton did not say how much she was devoting to her opening message.

“I was 12 and we were living in a tent, but it made me tough and determined to find a way out,” Acton says in her introductory spot. “I don’t want anyone to have to struggle like I did.”

House

FL-02

The busy Aug. 18 Republican primary for Florida’s conservative 2nd District has become increasingly negative, with allies of former Senate aide Austin Rogers running digital ads reminding voters that rival Keith Gross is both gay and a former Democrat from another state.

Politico’s Kimberly Leonard reports that a super PAC called Panhandle Patriots is going after Gross for saying during his failed 2008 campaign for the Georgia state House that he wanted to be the chamber’s “first openly gay” member.

Gross, a wealthy businessman who waged a doomed primary campaign against Republican Sen. Rick Scott in 2024, responded by telling Leonard that Donald Trump’s campaign didn’t care about his background when he informed them.

“They literally laughed out loud and reminded me that President Trump was a Democrat that same year and has appointed more gay men to the Cabinet than any other president in history,” Gross wrote in an email. “The MAGA base cares about my ability to do the job, not who I’m married to.”

Gross and Rogers, who stepped down as Scott’s general counsel to run for the House, finished the month of June with the most cash available among the eight Republicans running to replace GOP Rep. Neal Dunn, who is not seeking reelection.

Gross, who is self-funding almost his entire effort, had over $4 million to spend, while Rogers was well behind with close to $600,000 banked. Panhandle Patriots, however, has spent about $1.6 million to aid Rogers, according to reports submitted to the FEC.

None of the other six Republicans have benefited from any significant outside support, and they all have less money in the bank than Rogers. Evan Power, who serves as state GOP chair, came closest with a little more than $370,000 banked.

Whoever secures the GOP nod will be well-situated in the general election for a North Florida constituency that Trump carried 59-41.

FL-19

An affiliate of the radical anti-tax Club for Growth has launched what Axios’s Marc Caputo reports is a $1.1 million ad buy imploring Republicans in Florida’s 19th District to reject Chris Collins, a former congressman from New York who is running to claim this open seat.

“Collins voted for amnesty, rewarding lawbreakers with American citizenship,” declares the narrator for Win It Back PAC. “He even called himself ‘a strong supporter of comprehensive immigration reform.’”

Collins represented the Buffalo area from 2013 until he resigned in 2019 after pleading guilty to insider trading, but the Club is anything but excited about the idea of him returning to Congress. An unnamed operative told Caputo, “He’s a 49% on our scorecard, the bottom of the barrel in terms of voting record.”

The group has not endorsed any of Collins’ nine opponents in next month’s primary for the 19th District, a reliably red constituency in southwestern Florida that Rep. Byron Donalds is giving up to run for governor. Caputo writes that the group has instead adopted an “Anybody but Chris” strategy.

And local Republicans have plenty of names to choose from, including several others who also began their political careers in other states. This roster includes former U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina; former Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis; and Ola Hawatmeh and Catalina Lauf, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in New York and Illinois, respectively.

Wealthy businessman Jim Schwartzel, who does not appear to have run for office outside of Florida, is also in the hunt.

DCCC

Even though the DCCC’s favored candidate lost last week’s Democratic primary in Arizona’s 1st District, the committee added the winner, former state Rep. Amish Shah, to its “Red to Blue” list highlighting top candidates on Tuesday.

Four others were also named to the program, including businesswoman Pia Dandiya in Florida’s 22nd District, state Rep. Lindsay James in Iowa’s 2nd, teacher Jake Johnson in Minnesota’s 1st, and firefighter Sam Forstag in Montana’s 1st. All have already won their primaries except for Dandiya and Johnson, who face minimal opposition.

One notable Democrat, however, remains out in the cold. State Auditor Matt Dunlap, who beat a DCCC-backed opponent in last month’s primary in Maine’s 2nd District, still has yet to be embraced, though a spokesperson recently expressed optimism that that would change.

“We’re talking to the DCCC, we have a good relationship, and I expect that they will eventually move him to ‘Red to Blue,’” Dunlap advisor Joe Caiazzo told NOTUS.

While the Red to Blue designation is a signal to donors and outside groups that the DCCC views a candidate positively, it doesn’t guarantee the committee will invest in the fall. In 2024, for instance, the DCCC wound up making independent expenditures on behalf of 17 of the 33 candidates it had endorsed (though its allies at the House Majority PAC helped 11 more).

Poll Pile

• MI-Sen: Glengariff Group for the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan:

  • Haley Stevens (D): 46, Mike Rogers (R): 45.

  • Rogers (R): 49, Abdul El Sayed (D): 39.

• MN-Sen (D): Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association (pro-Peggy Flanagan):

  • Flanagan: 46, Angie Craig: 32.

  • June: 43-36 Flanagan.

• MT-Sen: GQR for Contours:

  • Kurt Alme (R): 41, Seth Bodnar (I): 27, Alani Bankhead (D): 22, Kyle Austin (L): 6.

  • Bodnar (I): 44, Alme (R): 40, Austin (L): 11.

  • Alme (R): 44, Bankhead (D): 40, Austin (L): 13.

  • Alme (R): 52, Bankhead (D): 44.

  • Bodnar (I): 50, Alme (R): 44.

• MT-Sen: The Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center:

  • Alme (R): 36, Bodnar (I): 24, Bankhead (D): 22.

• TX-Sen: Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research:

  • James Talarico (D): 45, Ken Paxton (R): 40, all others 1% or less.

  • May: 47-44 Talarico.

• AK-Gov (top-four primary): Change Research for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins:

  • Tom Begich (D): 17, Kreiss-Tomkins (D): 15, Bernadette Wilson (R): 14, Bill Walker (I): 7, Dave Bronson (R): 6, Click Bishop (R): 4, Adam Crum (R): 4, undecided: 27.

• MI-Gov: Glengariff:

  • Jocelyn Benson (D): 44, John James (R): 39.

  • Benson (D): 48, Perry Johnson (R): 37.

  • Chris Swanson (D): 43, James (R): 40.

  • Swanson (D): 44, Johnson (R): 40.

• NY-Gov: Red Oak Strategic for Strong And Safe (pro-Bruce Blakeman):

  • Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 47, Blakeman (R): 43.

• TX-Gov: Slingshot:

  • Greg Abbott (R-inc): 45, Gina Hinojosa (D): 42, all others 1% or less.

  • May: 46-41 Abbott.

• WI-Gov (D): State Navigate for Main Street Action and UpNorthNews:

  • Francesca Hong: 44, David Crowley: 15, Mandela Barnes: 14, all others 4% or less.

• CA-06: Bullfinch:

  • Richard Pan (D): 39, Kevin Kiley (I-inc): 35.

• CO-05: Global Strategy Group for Jessica Killin:

  • Jeff Crank (R-inc): 45, Killin (D): 44.

• IA-01: Bullfinch:

  • Christina Bohannan (D): 40, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc): 35, Michael Bridgford (I): 11.

• TX-AG: Slingshot:

  • Mayes Middleton (R): 39, Nathan Johnson (D): 38, Tom Oxford (L): 3.

  • May: 44-39 Middleton.