Morning Digest: Michael Bennet may not be the frontrunner for Colorado governor anymore

His primary opponent's bumper sticker: "Weiser for governor. Bennet for Senate."

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, candidate for governor

Leading Off

CO-Gov

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet’s plan to escape Congress by running for governor has run into an unexpectedly tough obstacle in the form of Attorney General Phil Weiser—one his allies are now trying to dislodge with a barrage of attack ads.

“Phil Weiser claims he’s Colorado’s watchdog,” begins the narrator in a new spot from Rocky Mountain Way, a group partially funded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. “[B]ut after oil and gas companies helped elect Weiser, he rolled over, failed to join dozens of lawsuits to stop Trump’s giveaways to corporate polluters.”

But Weiser, who refused to join other Centennial State Democrats in deferring to Bennet after the senator unexpectedly joined the race last year, is firing back just as aggressively.

“Michael Bennet voted to increase funding for ICE every year of Trump’s first term,” Weiser’s narrator says in a recent ad. “Just last year, right after Trump was sworn in, Bennet voted to give ICE more power to detain and deport immigrants. His votes hurt Colorado families.”

The exchange comes as a pair of recent polls suggest that Bennet is no longer the undisputed frontrunner to win the primary on June 30—and may even be the underdog. Weiser led 41-34 in a survey conducted in late May by Colorado Community Research, which told The Downballot the poll was not conducted for a client.

Weiser’s side, though, isn’t quite so optimistic that he’s already in front. Bennet had a 36-30 advantage in a Public Policy Polling survey done just days later for a pro-Weiser group, though the memo argued the attorney general has far more room to grow than the well-known senator.

Bennet’s strong name recognition was one reason that he spent most of the contest as the favorite to capture the Democratic nomination in what’s become a solidly blue state over the past two decades. Bennet, who won reelection in 2022 by an unexpectedly wide margin, caught observers by surprise early last year when he began talking about running to succeed termed-out Gov. Jared Polis.

His ultimate decision to seek the governor’s mansion in April wound up dramatically transforming the race. While just about everyone had anticipated a packed primary, every Democrat who had been considering whether to run ended up staying out of the race, including Secretary of State Jena Griswold.

Weiser, who launched his campaign three months before Bennet, opted to continue running, but polls initially showed him far behind. Much of the chatter surrounding Colorado politics turned to speculation about who Bennet might appoint to fill the final two years of his term in the Senate—a question that would only matter if Bennet were elected governor.

Weiser, though, has argued that Bennet isn’t doing enough in Washington now to show that he deserves a new job.

“Congress should be a check on a lawless, bullying administration,” Weiser said at a debate on Saturday. “It hasn’t been.”

The attorney general has simultaneously faulted Bennet for missing too many votes while also trying to appeal to voters who would prefer the senator remain where he is. Weiser’s campaign has even distributed bumper stickers reading, “Weiser for governor. Bennet for Senate.”

Bennet has pushed back by defending his record in Congress and saying he’s the leader Colorado needs to replace Polis, who became persona non grata in Democratic circles last month after he commuted former Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters’ conviction for participating in a breach of her county’s election systems.

“I’m sorry that I’ve missed a few votes in this moment when we’re right at the end of this race, but I stand by my record of service to Colorado,” the senator said at Saturday’s debate. Bennet also argued that Weiser wasn’t “ambitious” enough to deal with challenges like global warming and affordability.

The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored to defeat whoever emerges from the three-way GOP primary—a contest that has attracted national attention for reasons no Republican should be happy about.

In recapping Christian ministry founder Victor Marx’s recent sitdown with 9News reporter Kyle Clark, HuffPost explained, “Victor Marx does exorcisms by phone, says he killed a man at age 7, and will not tell you how to call in military airstrikes as a civilian (but says he’s done it before).”

Marx, though, enjoys a massive financial advantage over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, who has said she’s the Republican who can best appeal to independents who have soured on the GOP.

State Rep. Scott Bottoms, who has fired off evidence-free allegations that there are “pedophile rings” operating in the state capitol, rounds out the Republican field.

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Nancy Mace's spectacular crashout

Senate

AK-Sen

Election officials in Alaska have disqualified retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan from running for the post occupied by Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan this fall.

In a letter sent on Monday, the head of the state’s Division of Elections concluded that the challenger did not launch his bid as “an actual good-faith candidacy for the office of United States Senator” but rather did so “with a purpose to confuse or mislead and to thereby compromise the ballot’s fairness or neutrality.”

Dan J. Sullivan can file an appeal with the courts but has not yet said whether he might do so.

MT-Sen

Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar earned endorsements on Monday for his independent bid for Montana’s open Senate seat from the last two Democrats elected to that post, Jon Tester and Max Baucus. He also received the support of former Republican Gov. Marc Racicot and a former state GOP chair, Susan Geise.

In January, Tester urged Democrats to unite behind Bodnar rather than field a candidate of their own. That hasn’t come to pass, however: Also on Monday, the Democratic nominee, Air Force veteran Alani Bankhead, held a press conference to reiterate that she has no plans to leave the race.

“I’m never dropping out, ever, ever, ever,” she said, “It will be a cold day in hell. I don’t know how much clearer I say that. It’s never going to happen. We’re in this to win it.”

Governors

SC-Gov

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman, who finished third in last week’s GOP primary for governor, has endorsed state Attorney General Alan Wilson ahead of his runoff next week against Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette.

Norman, who took 17% of the vote, is the second also-ran to get behind Wilson. On election night, the attorney general earned the support of Rep. Nancy Mace, who had previously accused him of failing to prosecute four men she accused of rape and said she would “personally make sure that he is never governor.” Mace finished fifth with just 12%.

The fourth-place candidate, businessman Rom Reddy, has said he does not plan to endorse in the runoff after taking 14% in the primary. In the first round of voting, Evette, who has Donald Trump’s backing, edged out Wilson 29-26.

But a pair of polls, both conducted during the first two days of the runoff campaign, show Wilson with the advantage.

An Opinion Diagnostics survey finds the attorney general ahead 46-39, though that represented a drop from the 48-29 lead the firm gave him earlier this month. Wilson’s team has also released an internal poll from National Public Affairs giving him a wider 52-36 advantage over Evette.

House

CA-11

Wealthy activist Saikat Chakrabarti, who finished a distant third in the primary for California’s open 11th District, has endorsed San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan in the general election and says he’ll fund a super PAC to support her campaign against state Sen. Scott Wiener.

Wiener won 41% of the vote in the top-two primary while Chan, who had the backing of retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi, took 30 and Chakrabarti 18. All are Democrats.

FL-15

Republican Rep. Laurel Lee, who had looked set to earn a stiff primary challenge following the passage of Florida’s new congressional map, wound up drawing no intra-party opponents when Friday’s filing deadline came and went.

In early May, Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion kicked off a bid against Lee, but just a few weeks later, he dropped out, saying in a statement that the “Republican majority is too important to jeopardize in any way.”

Lee faced potential jeopardy because almost two-thirds of the redrawn 15th District was new to her, but after Champion bailed, no one else stepped up. Two little-known Democrats are running against the incumbent, but she’ll be heavily favored in November given the district’s strong conservative lean.

FL-24

The field for Florida’s open 24th Congressional District expanded just ahead of Friday’s filing deadline when two more prominent local Democrats entered the race.

Attorney Kendrick Meek Jr., whose father and grandmother both served previous versions of this district, kicked off a bid on Friday, two days after filing paperwork with the state.

Joining Meek that same day was Marshall Davis, an acclaimed figure in the Miami arts scene whose name now adorns the Marshal L. Davis African Heritage Cultural Arts Center.

Several other Democrats were already running for the safely blue seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson, including Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, former County Commissioner Jean Monestime, physician Rudy Moise, and state Sen. Shevrin Jones.

Secretaries of State

NV-SoS

Election conspiracy theorist Jim Marchant has prevailed in last week’s Republican primary and will get his rematch against Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, the Associated Press projected on Monday evening.

Marchant, a former member of the Assembly, scored a narrow 33-31 victory over Shirley Folkins-Roberts, a nonprofit co-founder backed by Gov. Joe Lombardo. Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is best known for her disastrous 2010 Senate campaign against the late Harry Reid, took third place with 26%.

Aguilar won a tight 49-47 victory in 2022 against Marchant, who declared during that campaign that anyone who had won an election in Nevada since 2006 was “installed by the deep-state cabal.”

Ballot Measures

NE Ballot

A Republican-led group backing a ballot initiative to award all of Nebraska’s electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis has dropped its efforts ahead of a July 2 deadline to submit signatures.

The measure would have amended the state Constitution to end Nebraska’s practice of giving an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. Republicans in the state legislature have also sought to advance a similar amendment but have lacked the votes to overcome a filibuster because of GOP defections.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Hennepin County, MN Attorney

Democratic state Rep. Cedrick Frazier won his party’s endorsement on Saturday ahead of this summer’s officially nonpartisan primary for Hennepin County attorney, an influential post that incumbent Mary Moriarty is giving up after one term.

Frazier scored the win against former acting U.S. Attorney Anders Folk, attorney Matt Pelikan, and Hao Nguyen, who works as a prosecutor in neighboring Ramsey County. Local prosecutor Diane Krenz, the fifth and final candidate running to replace Moriarty, did not compete for the endorsement at the Democrats’ weekend convention.

While Frazier’s victory doesn’t guarantee him a spot in the fall general election, the endorsement gives him access to resources like the state party’s voter database. The nod can also help Frazier, who already had the support of prominent figures like Rep. Ilhan Omar and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, stand out in this busy race.

All five will face off on a single ballot on Aug. 11, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the fall general election. While the race is officially nonpartisan, the next attorney for Hennepin County, a solidly blue community that includes Minneapolis and many of its suburbs, is likely to be a Democrat.

Poll Pile

• GA-Gov: Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy:

  • Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): 52, Burt Jones (R): 42.

  • Lance Bottoms (D): 53, Rick Jackson (R): 38.

• MN-Gov: Mason-Dixon for the Minnesota Star Tribune, KARE 11, and the University of Minnesota:

  • Amy Klobuchar (D): 48, Lisa Demuth (R): 40.

  • Klobuchar (D): 48, Kendall Qualls (R): 37.

  • Klobuchar (D): 53, Mike Lindell (R): 36.

• AL-02 (R): Peak Insights:

  • Rhett Marques: 30, Joshua McKee: 10, other candidates 4% or less, undecided: 42.