Marquee runoffs will once again test Trump's influence over the GOP
Officer-holders endorsed by Trump face serious headwinds from outsiders
The power of Donald Trump’s blessing will once again be tested in multiple races on Tuesday, as voters in Alabama and Georgia head back to the polls for runoffs while Oklahoma and Washington, D.C., hold their primaries.
While Trump has weighed in on behalf of many candidates, it’s a pair of high-profile statewide contests where his choices face the greatest headwinds, thanks to the emergence of two insurgent candidates.
Nowhere is that more true than in Alabama’s Senate race, where Trump gave his backing to Rep. Barry Moore all the way back in January. But the congressman nonetheless finds himself locked in a difficult battle against a political newcomer.
In Georgia, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones likewise received an endorsement from Trump long ago—all the way back in August. But billionaire Rick Jackson has endeared himself to the MAGA base by positioning himself as an outsider.
In addition to the states above, California is holding an election for its vacant 14th Congressional District. Oklahoma and California will stage runoffs in August if no one clears a majority, while D.C. will use its brand-new ranked-choice voting system for the first time.
Below, you’ll find our guide to the top races to watch on another coast-to-coast election night. When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
And as always, please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in on Tuesday night, starting at 7 PM ET when polls start to close in Georgia.
Alabama
Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.
AL-Sen (R) (65-34 Trump)
Rep. Barry Moore, Trump’s pick for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat, is locked in a surprisingly unpredictable primary runoff against Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson.
Moore, one of the most notorious election deniers in the House, finished a strong first last month with 39%, while Hudson took second with 26%. But Hudson, who is campaigning as a conservative outsider, is hoping Moore will be vulnerable in a year that’s already seen GOP voters reject seven House incumbents who wanted a promotion.
Hudson and his allies are also arguing that Moore, who served in the Army National Guard, falsely suggested that he’d served in combat overseas. Moore has pushed back by insisting he’d “never claimed to be” in combat, while his allies have sought to link Hudson to Democratic donors.
Pollsters disagree on which man has the advantage for the GOP nomination, which is tantamount to victory in this dark red state. One survey conducted shortly after Memorial Day gave Hudson a 10-point advantage, while another poll done just days later showed Moore with a comparable lead.
Georgia
Polls close at 7 PM ET.
GA-Sen (R) (50-48 Trump)
Rep. Mike Collins faces Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach backed by Gov. Brian Kemp, in the Republican nomination battle to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
Collins outpaced Dooley 41-30 last month, while Rep. Buddy Carter, who finished in third with 25%, did not back either finalist. Collins, though, earned a far more influential—albeit very late—endorsement from Trump.
