If I recall correctly, he voted for some of Trump’s judicial nominees, which is an automatic disqualifier for me. Were I in Colorado, I’d vote for Julie Gonzales personally.
I totally get it, I’m a progressive myself but I’m aware a lot of people here are to my right. That’s why I love this community, people being able to respectfully discuss politics from different viewpoints breeds better discussion in my opinion.
OK. I largely disagree with you. I don't think Trump should be treated like a normal president, and I would assume everyone he nominates is corrupt unless conclusively proven otherwise.
I was pretty upset he was elected in the first place, given his record as Governor. The unmitigated gall of touting his (fake) climate achievements really pissed me off.
I know nothing about the pollster. I would bet on KLB leading but I was surprised by how much. One factor that gives the poll some credibility with me is that it finds Kemp to be very popular with approval at +19 (57-36). Good for everyone to remember though that the R's are in a very nasty runoff and that has surely lowered the approval of both candidates at least for now.
This pollster had some right calls in 2024 Maryland, showing now Sen Alsobrooks comfortably leading the primary and general election.
However got to say this one is in an alternative universe. It showed KLB with a meh lead among Black voters (both Rs getting low teens). To lead 10-15pt statewide, which means in White voters she would be only behind 10-20pt. Not remotely close to reality.
Regardless of the quality of the pollster, I’ll note that KLB’s commanding primary lead may hint at being a better candidate than we anticipated in the general.
The primary had a very decent Black voter turnout only 1pt below White voters. Her strength was in the Black voters outside of the ATL core, mostly from Black majority exurbs and secondary cities. These are the voters that will support a D in the general election anyway.
Her support within the core and the suburbs without substantial Black voters, even in the primary, is underwhelming, shall we say.
The White voters voted in the primary, 75% picked an R ballot.
Unless in the general election you have Black voter turning out only a couple of points below White voters, otherwise with only 25% White support is not a winning margin in the general election.
In short, the primary strength pretty much tells very little of how the general election goes. If it does so, we would have Gov Abrams just about to finish her second term.
Mohamed Hussein, the son of a delegate to the Texas Republican convention, was forced out and told to leave the country for being Muslim. Pastor Rick Scarborough accused him of spreading Sharia and said that Islam was not compatible with American society. This article doesn't touch on his father, the delegate, that much, but Mohamed was in tears.
I think the bull case for Texas becoming a true swing state soon is that the state will continue to trend blue slightly but that an R+5 Texas is more like an R+1 anywhere else because the state party is so extreme they'll nominate weak candidates repeatedly. Basically the path Arizona is on.
“I would strongly advise you to leave our caucus,” [State GOP chair Abraham] George said. “There is a Democrat convention happening in a couple weeks. Join them.”
There’s a world, one we saw flashes of between 2020-24, where a GOP that is focused more on being social/cultural conservative as a first principle than just an outlet for megachurch-driven Christian nationalist grievances actually does pretty well with Muslim voters, who are generally pretty traditional (though there’s a sharp, sharp generational aspect there). Probably with a lot of Asian voters generally.
Great point, I’d add Latinos to this too. Lots of audience for a general socially conservative message that get turned off by the crazy. Makes me wonder if a successor party to the current maga-only party might figure that out.
Correct. That, and the fact that ultimately the entire GOP philosophy boils down to:
"We're better than you, and deserve more if not all of everything."
For a while they were able to balance this sort of neoliberal tokenism with the we're-pulling-up-the-ladder economically across the board. The Horatio Alger myth dies hard in this country, and as long as there's a sizable middle class doing ok-ish, you can get away with a lot of bullshit about "equal opportunity."
But they got exponentially greedier and crazier and now all the masks are off. Trump made it much worse, of course, but he never would've headed the party if the whole rotten edifice wasn't ripe for him breaking to begin with.
So, they can't let go of any of it. Not the white supremacy, not the male supremacy, and not the level of greed that has them blatantly extracting the last pennies from pensioners in order to build gilded ballrooms.
Oh, they could clean up. Hell, I think they did do a certain amount in Michigan between Palestine and that kind of cultural appeal. It's just that they blatantly and brutally kick people in the face as soon as-or before-they vote for them. Look at what happened to their gains with Latin(o/a/e) voters since '24.
But of course, they have Trump as their figurehead; it could not be clearer that, even putting aside that the "cultural conservative" "morals" suck on their own merits, almost none of these people will put them before raw naked power, however heathen and gross the face of it is.
And white supremacy matters even more to them than Mitch McConnell-style GOP party brand uber alles at this point, much less "family values" (choke) When's the last time we heard that particular phrase? Seems to have gone the way of "trickle down." We're past them even bothering to make up a half-decent lie anymore.
Bennet has run hot and cold for us in CO, with only occasional flashes of fight. Mostly he's a Schumercrat. Weiser has joined a slough of lawsuits by state attorneys general to blunt the overreach of the Trump regime. But Colorado's other senate race is one I hope The Downballot will analyse. Incumbent Dem John Hickenlooper, whose essentially hidden for the past six years only to surface to campaign, is being challenged by state senator Julie Gonzales who has been an effective progressive.
I think Gonzales will be close. Maybe Kiros too. Colorado in general is rapidly shifting leftward.
Actually that leads me to a question for posters here — what factors led Colorado to go blue so fast? Was it demographics? The Colorado GOP self-destructing?
A combination of both of those factors. The population growth and changing demographics since c. 1970 have enabled the state to become a progressive haven (famously the first to legalize marijuana). And in recent years, probably since the ouster of Cory Gardner (or before that, because 2016 and 2018 were rough), Republicans have lost a lot of enthusiasm in the state. Look at Heidi Ganahl's disastrous 2022 gubernatorial bid, for example.
I remember Colorado Springs as a stronghold for the right-Dobson's Focus on the Family. Dobson's gone now, obviously, just wondering where that organization and the religious right in general are in CO today, and what led to which.
Colorado was already heading that way, but the marijuana legalization really seemed to accelerate it. It’s a common destination for liberal transplants.
Demographics first as a lot of people from CA and other blue states swarmed into CO in the 90's and 2000's. The self destruction of the state GOP was icing on the cake but more recent starting in the past 10 years with a parade of bonifide crazies, cranks, conspiracy theorists and Qnuts taking over the party. Barb Kirkmeyer who is running for gov is one of the only sane repubes remaining
"Barb Kirkmeyer who is running for gov is one of the only sane repubes remaining" and she wanted her part of state to secede shows what moderate is for them now.
That tells you just how crazy the rest of the party is if thats the worst of her. In fairness, she was trying to appeal to the many MAGATs in that campaign
I'm leaning Gonzales for new generation reasons. I want to know more about Kiros before making a call there will look into her past and such this weekend. I seem to change CDs every cycle back in the 1st now.
Gonzales has not raised much money at all. Hickenlooper is on the Schumer gravy train and won't debate Gonzales. Similar situation for Kiros. ÐeGette has gotten way too comfortable in that seat the past 35 years and won't debate, a good example of a Dem "elite". Kiros has a better chance because the district of Denver proper is quite progressive
It seems like they'd both be good Governors. Really should just come down to who is more vocal about aggressive gerrymandering. Terrible place we're in but until 2029 when we can ban partisan gerrymandering, it's the only thing that matters in state races alongside electability.
I think that's probably right but my guess is e.g. Spanberger doesn't go for a second shot in VA. It only takes 2-3 decisions like that for us to be in a deep hole in 2028.
I am not happy. I just had to ban a shitty user (the one who posted the stupid Chakrabarti/Wiener comment) *and* delete an entire thread. Substack does not make that easy, so that was just a huge waste of my time.
Let me make this very, very clear: If you try to evade our rules by referring to "the forbidden topic" instead of the topic itself, that kind of cutesy nonsense will get you banned. I said in the rules of the road that there are no loopholes. If you try to test that, it won't end well.
Thank you for what you do, this is the only place on the internet I trust for professional political analysis and (for the very most part) robust, fact-based commentary boards. Sorry you have to waste so much time policing the place, I’ve definitely made sure to think twice before posting hot takes and the rules of the road are clear and fair.
I didn't see any of this, being in Germany and not looking at this thread till later in the day. Sorry you have to deal with this. Moderation can feel like a neverending pain sometimes.
That would be incredible. I was really looking forward to the Cohen vs Pearson race, it would have been a fascinating test of all kinds of dynamics in the dem party.
It's election day here in DC, and I for one am happy to stop receiving all the mailers (especially since the previous *two* tenants of my apartment didn't change their address, so I get 3x the mail!).
Interesting stats though - according to the DCBOE, about 68.6k ballots have been cast before 7am today, which is only about 14.3% of registered voters. Wonder if there will be a lot of EDay votes, or if it's gonna be a low-turnout primary despite all the important races going on in the District.
Did you support White and Lewis George? I know I would.
On getting unwanted mail, my grandparents send their mail here to an American address (they live out of the country), and I often get Trump memorabilia. They are MAGA to the extreme.
Obviously this will never happen, but what do people think about a Democrating administration using Section 2 of the 14th Amendment to strip congressional representation from Republican redistricting states?
Gerrymandering is pretty clearly not rebellion. You could maybe make a case for the January 6th stuff if a Governor took part or a substantial portion of a state's population did, but the last clause modifies the reduction in representation to be equivalent to the number of men who participated in the rebellion. That'd round to zero seats in every state.
"But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State."
Section 2 doesn't talk about rebellion being a reason for reducing representation, in fact it explicitly disallows it. So I was confused about what you were referencing
If either side tried something that brazen it would lead to the end of the country, I can't imagine either Democratic or Republican voters going along quietly if their elected representatives were not allowed to participate in Congress.
Idk about using a word like "brazen" to describe using the text of the Constitution to do precisely what it authorizes Congress to do. Not even a creative interpretation of the text, just...the plain text.
That being said, you're not wrong that it would be poorly received.
Any predictions for the runoffs tonight in Georgia? Does it even make much difference whether it’s Collins or Dooley in the Senate race? Or even Jones or Jackson in the gubernatorial race? My default is to assume the Trump endorsee will generally win, but Iowa showed us that’s not always the case.
I think Collins and Jones win. Dooley would be a slightly stronger candidate IMO, but Jones and Jackson are about the same. Also, I think Moore will win in AL.
Fair although Collins is talking about a vote she made during Trump’s first term. If he lost re-election and is along with Republicans unpopular, her defense of her vote makes it much harder for her to even spin anything at this point.
No but because Collins won re-election last time with single digits, her firm defense of confirming Brett Kavanaugh to SCOTUS will only complicate her chances in this environment.
Also, Collins was pro-Iraq War with her votes and at the debates would be facing Platner, an Iraq War veteran who is very critical of the war. Platner could hammer Collins with her record more persistently than previous Democratic candidates.
Outgoing Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, has called for abolishing the death penalty. I highly doubt his potential successor, Vivek Ramaswamy, would do the same. Let's hope Amy Acton just wins instead.
DeWine sponsored the bill to reinstate the death penalty when he was a state senator in 1981.
DeWine didn't go quite as far as George Ryan did in Illinois. Ryan, also a Republican, commuted over 160 death sentences to life imprisonment without the possibility of parole on his way out of office.
Of course, Ryan was the last GOP governor in Illinois who lost a ton of downstate counties (Effingham County, of all places, was more Democratic than Cook County in the 1998 IL-Gov election, something you'd never see today), and his corruption during his tenure as Secretary of State here in Illinois led to a federal criminal conviction.
New York State Senate District 27 race: I have my absentee ballot here in Germany (I'll go into how I did that in a separate post) and have to fill it out and mail it ASAP, so it arrives within 13 days of the June 23 primary day. The one race I'm having trouble deciding on is this one. State Assembly Member Grace Lee is running against former Assembly Member Yuh-Line Niou. I'm not too familiar with Grace Lee, but it seems like she's sponsored a lot of good legislation: https://ballotpedia.org/Grace_Lee_(New_York). Yuh-Line Niou has a reputation as a strong progressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuh-Line_Niou. She previously supported "defunding" the police, which might be a demerit, but she also supports all sorts of things I agree with, including single-payer healthcare. I have yet to find anything Lee has said or done that I disagree with, though.
It seems like another establishment vs. progressive battle. Lee tried to primary Niou from the right when the latter was still in the assembly in 2020, and Niou was one of many progressives that ran for the open NY-10 in 2022, narrowly losing to Dan Goldman.
Interesting. But yet, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grace_Lee_(politician): "Lee is a member of the Vote Blue Coalition, a progressive group and federal PAC created to support Democrats in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania through voter outreach and mobilization efforts."
Niou is also openly autistic, like myself. Having autistic representation in government is a big deal to me — there are very few openly autistic legislators in the US I know of.
No. After I filled out a Federal overseas voter card and emailed it as an attachment to the NYC Board of Elections, they provided me with a link where I was able to download my ballot, oath envelope and regular envelope, but I have to physically mail them back to the NYC Board of Elections.
Still, a bit surprised Fishhead isn't doing better, given all that. I guess the fact that Trump's blessing of. Black Republican (however terrible) > total groyper Nazi still works should be a sign of...something. I do wonder what happens when he and his personality cult are finally gone.
Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson’s Republican primary opponent in the Iowa Senate race, tells his supporters not to vote for Hinson because she doesn’t share “our values.”
Jim Carlin got 26% of the vote in the GOP primary.
Actually, I'm wrong: I also have to decide about the NYS Assembly, District 66. 6 people are running for the seat. I'm going to see if the NY Voter Guide is online. I think it is.
I like many of the things a lot of these candidates have to say, but on the face of it, I'm most impressed with David Siffert. What do you all think? I want to fill out this ballot by tomorrow and mail it off.
If I recall correctly, he voted for some of Trump’s judicial nominees, which is an automatic disqualifier for me. Were I in Colorado, I’d vote for Julie Gonzales personally.
I totally get it, I’m a progressive myself but I’m aware a lot of people here are to my right. That’s why I love this community, people being able to respectfully discuss politics from different viewpoints breeds better discussion in my opinion.
100%
Understood, but does that mean you think it's OK for Democratic senators to vote for Trump nominees?
OK. I largely disagree with you. I don't think Trump should be treated like a normal president, and I would assume everyone he nominates is corrupt unless conclusively proven otherwise.
I was pretty upset he was elected in the first place, given his record as Governor. The unmitigated gall of touting his (fake) climate achievements really pissed me off.
Don't tell me: you don't believe global warming is real or as serious as scientists know it is.
I don't see those issues as incompatible, but yeah, it's much more complicated, as AI may eliminate all jobs...
How reliable is the polling though? I'm actually shocked to see KLB polling like 8-10 points ahead, albeit in a 510 person survey.
Not complaining though.
I know nothing about the pollster. I would bet on KLB leading but I was surprised by how much. One factor that gives the poll some credibility with me is that it finds Kemp to be very popular with approval at +19 (57-36). Good for everyone to remember though that the R's are in a very nasty runoff and that has surely lowered the approval of both candidates at least for now.
Ossoff will probably help KLB over the line in November as well.
I'm greedy, I want all the row offices.
Truly insane that Georgia has 8 statewide elected offices *and* they're all up at the same time.
I'm greedy, I want Georgia to gain a state trifecta this year as an F-you to GA Republicans and Kemp.
That would be magnificent indeed.
This pollster had some right calls in 2024 Maryland, showing now Sen Alsobrooks comfortably leading the primary and general election.
However got to say this one is in an alternative universe. It showed KLB with a meh lead among Black voters (both Rs getting low teens). To lead 10-15pt statewide, which means in White voters she would be only behind 10-20pt. Not remotely close to reality.
Regardless of the quality of the pollster, I’ll note that KLB’s commanding primary lead may hint at being a better candidate than we anticipated in the general.
No
? Can you elaborate?
The primary had a very decent Black voter turnout only 1pt below White voters. Her strength was in the Black voters outside of the ATL core, mostly from Black majority exurbs and secondary cities. These are the voters that will support a D in the general election anyway.
Her support within the core and the suburbs without substantial Black voters, even in the primary, is underwhelming, shall we say.
The White voters voted in the primary, 75% picked an R ballot.
Unless in the general election you have Black voter turning out only a couple of points below White voters, otherwise with only 25% White support is not a winning margin in the general election.
In short, the primary strength pretty much tells very little of how the general election goes. If it does so, we would have Gov Abrams just about to finish her second term.
Primaries =/= general elections
Right?? Love to see it, feeling cautious. Fingers crossed
Not sure what happened but the results of the poll being referenced are:
🟦Keisha Lance Bottoms 52%
🟥Burt Jones 42%
——
🟦Keisha Lance Bottoms 53%
🟥Rick Jackson 38%
——
Favorables (net)
✅🟥Brian Kemp (+21)
✅🟦Keisha Lance Bottoms (+10)
❌🟥Donald Trump (-19)
❌🟥Burt Jones (-16)
❌🟥Rick Jackson (-10)
The guy that posted the polling results got banned, that's why.
https://www.texastribune.org/2026/06/15/texas-republican-party-convention-muslims-sharia-law/
Mohamed Hussein, the son of a delegate to the Texas Republican convention, was forced out and told to leave the country for being Muslim. Pastor Rick Scarborough accused him of spreading Sharia and said that Islam was not compatible with American society. This article doesn't touch on his father, the delegate, that much, but Mohamed was in tears.
Absolutely appalling but par the course for TX Republicans. They don't accept anyone who isn't a straight white Christian.
I think the bull case for Texas becoming a true swing state soon is that the state will continue to trend blue slightly but that an R+5 Texas is more like an R+1 anywhere else because the state party is so extreme they'll nominate weak candidates repeatedly. Basically the path Arizona is on.
This quote was pretty crazy as well:
“I would strongly advise you to leave our caucus,” [State GOP chair Abraham] George said. “There is a Democrat convention happening in a couple weeks. Join them.”
The craziest part is it sounds like they are still committed Republicans even after being told they were not wanted. Broken brain and all that.
Sounds like a Jew who insists he's still a Nazi after the Nazis told him he could never be one...
Yeah, it's hard for me to feel much for the guy beyond bemusement to be honest.
"YOU CAN'T SIT WITH US!" dude, the tears alone would've had you blackballed from these people, what are you doing
but the best part is that the convention's theme is "unity to win"
Pretty ironic considering George was ousted shortly thereafter
Seems like an array-ful party, everything good here pip pip
Zero sympathy, it's 2026 and everyone knows what that party is and no you're not the exception Hussein family.
There’s a world, one we saw flashes of between 2020-24, where a GOP that is focused more on being social/cultural conservative as a first principle than just an outlet for megachurch-driven Christian nationalist grievances actually does pretty well with Muslim voters, who are generally pretty traditional (though there’s a sharp, sharp generational aspect there). Probably with a lot of Asian voters generally.
That of course is not the world we live in
Great point, I’d add Latinos to this too. Lots of audience for a general socially conservative message that get turned off by the crazy. Makes me wonder if a successor party to the current maga-only party might figure that out.
The problem is that all roads lead back to bigotry ultimately because that's the grassroots position.
Correct. That, and the fact that ultimately the entire GOP philosophy boils down to:
"We're better than you, and deserve more if not all of everything."
For a while they were able to balance this sort of neoliberal tokenism with the we're-pulling-up-the-ladder economically across the board. The Horatio Alger myth dies hard in this country, and as long as there's a sizable middle class doing ok-ish, you can get away with a lot of bullshit about "equal opportunity."
But they got exponentially greedier and crazier and now all the masks are off. Trump made it much worse, of course, but he never would've headed the party if the whole rotten edifice wasn't ripe for him breaking to begin with.
So, they can't let go of any of it. Not the white supremacy, not the male supremacy, and not the level of greed that has them blatantly extracting the last pennies from pensioners in order to build gilded ballrooms.
It is not sustainable.
Oh, they could clean up. Hell, I think they did do a certain amount in Michigan between Palestine and that kind of cultural appeal. It's just that they blatantly and brutally kick people in the face as soon as-or before-they vote for them. Look at what happened to their gains with Latin(o/a/e) voters since '24.
But of course, they have Trump as their figurehead; it could not be clearer that, even putting aside that the "cultural conservative" "morals" suck on their own merits, almost none of these people will put them before raw naked power, however heathen and gross the face of it is.
And white supremacy matters even more to them than Mitch McConnell-style GOP party brand uber alles at this point, much less "family values" (choke) When's the last time we heard that particular phrase? Seems to have gone the way of "trickle down." We're past them even bothering to make up a half-decent lie anymore.
Bennet has run hot and cold for us in CO, with only occasional flashes of fight. Mostly he's a Schumercrat. Weiser has joined a slough of lawsuits by state attorneys general to blunt the overreach of the Trump regime. But Colorado's other senate race is one I hope The Downballot will analyse. Incumbent Dem John Hickenlooper, whose essentially hidden for the past six years only to surface to campaign, is being challenged by state senator Julie Gonzales who has been an effective progressive.
Here's an interview of Hickenlooper by 9News's Kyle Clark. Check out how weak he come's across.
https://www.9news.com/video/news/local/next/next-with-kyle-clark/next-conversation-democratic-sen-john-hickenlooper-on-president-trumps-policies/73-5e93581b-531a-4301-9e3e-20619c69c989
Weiser seems to be rising. Do you think Gonzales is too? How about Kiros against DeGette (I know that one is controversial here)?
I think Gonzales will be close. Maybe Kiros too. Colorado in general is rapidly shifting leftward.
Actually that leads me to a question for posters here — what factors led Colorado to go blue so fast? Was it demographics? The Colorado GOP self-destructing?
A combination of both of those factors. The population growth and changing demographics since c. 1970 have enabled the state to become a progressive haven (famously the first to legalize marijuana). And in recent years, probably since the ouster of Cory Gardner (or before that, because 2016 and 2018 were rough), Republicans have lost a lot of enthusiasm in the state. Look at Heidi Ganahl's disastrous 2022 gubernatorial bid, for example.
Heidi is one of the whackos I had in mind
I remember Colorado Springs as a stronghold for the right-Dobson's Focus on the Family. Dobson's gone now, obviously, just wondering where that organization and the religious right in general are in CO today, and what led to which.
Colorado was already heading that way, but the marijuana legalization really seemed to accelerate it. It’s a common destination for liberal transplants.
Demographics first as a lot of people from CA and other blue states swarmed into CO in the 90's and 2000's. The self destruction of the state GOP was icing on the cake but more recent starting in the past 10 years with a parade of bonifide crazies, cranks, conspiracy theorists and Qnuts taking over the party. Barb Kirkmeyer who is running for gov is one of the only sane repubes remaining
"Barb Kirkmeyer who is running for gov is one of the only sane repubes remaining" and she wanted her part of state to secede shows what moderate is for them now.
She thinks Weld should go to Wyoming? I think the people in Greeley, at least, would have something to say about that.
Eh Greeley could go to Larimer county.
That tells you just how crazy the rest of the party is if thats the worst of her. In fairness, she was trying to appeal to the many MAGATs in that campaign
I'm leaning Gonzales for new generation reasons. I want to know more about Kiros before making a call there will look into her past and such this weekend. I seem to change CDs every cycle back in the 1st now.
Gonzales has not raised much money at all. Hickenlooper is on the Schumer gravy train and won't debate Gonzales. Similar situation for Kiros. ÐeGette has gotten way too comfortable in that seat the past 35 years and won't debate, a good example of a Dem "elite". Kiros has a better chance because the district of Denver proper is quite progressive
What is that character you used at the beginning of "ÐeGette", and was it intentional?
It looks like a letter in Icelandic that we don't have in English. Sounds like a soft "th" sound (as in them). My keyboard doesn't have that one...
Gov being an open seat, even with Bennett in for it, could benefit for Weiser. I doubt Hick is in much danger comparatively in his primary
(I do like Bennett though as a policy wonk, we do still need some of those in the Senate. I don’t think anybody would miss Hick)
It seems like they'd both be good Governors. Really should just come down to who is more vocal about aggressive gerrymandering. Terrible place we're in but until 2029 when we can ban partisan gerrymandering, it's the only thing that matters in state races alongside electability.
I strongly doubt Bennett would work against a gerrymander, so for me it’s a wash. They’d both be good Democratic governors
I think that's probably right but my guess is e.g. Spanberger doesn't go for a second shot in VA. It only takes 2-3 decisions like that for us to be in a deep hole in 2028.
Isn't VA one term only anyway? I thought.
I meant trying redistricting again in 2027-8.
NY13 Poll Espaillat up https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2066883233103454414?s=20
Was this the one I posted yesterday? Because that one was an internal with a large number of undecideds.
it's the poll you posted yesterday sorry
Oh that’s fine, don’t worry. I just wanted to note it being an internal with a lot of undecideds.
I am not happy. I just had to ban a shitty user (the one who posted the stupid Chakrabarti/Wiener comment) *and* delete an entire thread. Substack does not make that easy, so that was just a huge waste of my time.
Let me make this very, very clear: If you try to evade our rules by referring to "the forbidden topic" instead of the topic itself, that kind of cutesy nonsense will get you banned. I said in the rules of the road that there are no loopholes. If you try to test that, it won't end well.
And if you haven't read them, read them now: https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-community-rules-of
Thank you for what you do, this is the only place on the internet I trust for professional political analysis and (for the very most part) robust, fact-based commentary boards. Sorry you have to waste so much time policing the place, I’ve definitely made sure to think twice before posting hot takes and the rules of the road are clear and fair.
Bless you David. I apologize for contributing to this disaster.
Appreciate you!
I didn't see any of this, being in Germany and not looking at this thread till later in the day. Sorry you have to deal with this. Moderation can feel like a neverending pain sometimes.
Bernie endorses Cori Bush in MO-01. This district will probably get dismantled before 2028 so whoever wins might not be in congress much longer.
https://www.semafor.com/article/06/16/2026/bernie-sanders-endorses-cori-bushs-comeback-bid
If the veto referendum goes through isn’t MO-2 looking to be competitive?
He also endorsed Justin Pearson in the already-dismantled TN-9. I said last night how cool it would be if he could win despite the odds.
That would be incredible. I was really looking forward to the Cohen vs Pearson race, it would have been a fascinating test of all kinds of dynamics in the dem party.
It's election day here in DC, and I for one am happy to stop receiving all the mailers (especially since the previous *two* tenants of my apartment didn't change their address, so I get 3x the mail!).
Interesting stats though - according to the DCBOE, about 68.6k ballots have been cast before 7am today, which is only about 14.3% of registered voters. Wonder if there will be a lot of EDay votes, or if it's gonna be a low-turnout primary despite all the important races going on in the District.
Did you support White and Lewis George? I know I would.
On getting unwanted mail, my grandparents send their mail here to an American address (they live out of the country), and I often get Trump memorabilia. They are MAGA to the extreme.
Yeah, they were my #1 picks
Obviously this will never happen, but what do people think about a Democrating administration using Section 2 of the 14th Amendment to strip congressional representation from Republican redistricting states?
Gerrymandering is pretty clearly not rebellion. You could maybe make a case for the January 6th stuff if a Governor took part or a substantial portion of a state's population did, but the last clause modifies the reduction in representation to be equivalent to the number of men who participated in the rebellion. That'd round to zero seats in every state.
Section 2, not Section 3.
"But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State."
charles sumner would second this argument
yeah that's the clause I was referring to, is your claim that gerrymandering is abridgment of the right to vote?
Section 2 doesn't talk about rebellion being a reason for reducing representation, in fact it explicitly disallows it. So I was confused about what you were referencing
If either side tried something that brazen it would lead to the end of the country, I can't imagine either Democratic or Republican voters going along quietly if their elected representatives were not allowed to participate in Congress.
Idk about using a word like "brazen" to describe using the text of the Constitution to do precisely what it authorizes Congress to do. Not even a creative interpretation of the text, just...the plain text.
That being said, you're not wrong that it would be poorly received.
Any predictions for the runoffs tonight in Georgia? Does it even make much difference whether it’s Collins or Dooley in the Senate race? Or even Jones or Jackson in the gubernatorial race? My default is to assume the Trump endorsee will generally win, but Iowa showed us that’s not always the case.
I think Collins and Jones win. Dooley would be a slightly stronger candidate IMO, but Jones and Jackson are about the same. Also, I think Moore will win in AL.
No clear preference on which Rs are easier to beat. Ig Collins and Jackson win the runoffs, kinda CW here.
McLaurin should win the Lt Gov runoff on D side.
Any thoughts on Secretary of State?
No idea on D runoff.
R side I don’t think Vernon Jones would win an R runoff.
NewsCenterMaine: "I was hoping you could talk to me a little bit about your vote to confirm Kavanaugh and whether you regret that?"
Susan Collins: "I do not regret that vote."
https://x.com/MaineDems/status/2066920581249827156?s=20
Platner needs to wedge this AND affordability until November.
With ads!
I really don’t think anything can save her at this point.
Except for Graham Platner....
Collins just gave the Senate election to Graham Platner with this statement.
Senator Graham Platner is looking more probable at this point.
Your first sentence is a little strong. I think if he wins, it'll be more generally about the current unpopularity of Trump and the Republicans.
Fair although Collins is talking about a vote she made during Trump’s first term. If he lost re-election and is along with Republicans unpopular, her defense of her vote makes it much harder for her to even spin anything at this point.
Timing is just not working in Collins’ favor.
I agree but doubt a Supreme Court confirmation vote would be what sinks her..
No but because Collins won re-election last time with single digits, her firm defense of confirming Brett Kavanaugh to SCOTUS will only complicate her chances in this environment.
Also, Collins was pro-Iraq War with her votes and at the debates would be facing Platner, an Iraq War veteran who is very critical of the war. Platner could hammer Collins with her record more persistently than previous Democratic candidates.
I don't think Platner is a good candidate but Susan is much, much weaker now compared to how she was in 2020.
Yeah, keep talking, lady
https://www.richlandsource.com/2026/06/16/gov-dewine-calls-for-ohio-to-abolish-the-death-penalty/
Outgoing Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, has called for abolishing the death penalty. I highly doubt his potential successor, Vivek Ramaswamy, would do the same. Let's hope Amy Acton just wins instead.
DeWine sponsored the bill to reinstate the death penalty when he was a state senator in 1981.
Pity that Republicans can only make reasonable suggestions on their way out.
DeWine didn't go quite as far as George Ryan did in Illinois. Ryan, also a Republican, commuted over 160 death sentences to life imprisonment without the possibility of parole on his way out of office.
Of course, Ryan was the last GOP governor in Illinois who lost a ton of downstate counties (Effingham County, of all places, was more Democratic than Cook County in the 1998 IL-Gov election, something you'd never see today), and his corruption during his tenure as Secretary of State here in Illinois led to a federal criminal conviction.
New York State Senate District 27 race: I have my absentee ballot here in Germany (I'll go into how I did that in a separate post) and have to fill it out and mail it ASAP, so it arrives within 13 days of the June 23 primary day. The one race I'm having trouble deciding on is this one. State Assembly Member Grace Lee is running against former Assembly Member Yuh-Line Niou. I'm not too familiar with Grace Lee, but it seems like she's sponsored a lot of good legislation: https://ballotpedia.org/Grace_Lee_(New_York). Yuh-Line Niou has a reputation as a strong progressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuh-Line_Niou. She previously supported "defunding" the police, which might be a demerit, but she also supports all sorts of things I agree with, including single-payer healthcare. I have yet to find anything Lee has said or done that I disagree with, though.
Who would you support in this race, and why?
It seems like another establishment vs. progressive battle. Lee tried to primary Niou from the right when the latter was still in the assembly in 2020, and Niou was one of many progressives that ran for the open NY-10 in 2022, narrowly losing to Dan Goldman.
Interesting. But yet, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grace_Lee_(politician): "Lee is a member of the Vote Blue Coalition, a progressive group and federal PAC created to support Democrats in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania through voter outreach and mobilization efforts."
So is Dan Goldman.
Interesting. Well, I voted against both of them.
Niou is also openly autistic, like myself. Having autistic representation in government is a big deal to me — there are very few openly autistic legislators in the US I know of.
Doesn’t NY have online voting for military and overseas voters?
No. After I filled out a Federal overseas voter card and emailed it as an attachment to the NYC Board of Elections, they provided me with a link where I was able to download my ballot, oath envelope and regular envelope, but I have to physically mail them back to the NYC Board of Elections.
I know but Change Research poll has Jolly up be 5-7 over Donals in FLGov. May Rs won’t vote for Donalds-I wonder what could be the reason https://x.com/fla_pol/status/2066979133477777512?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
Yeah, that’s the only reason Jolly might win.
I don't think it's the _only_ reason. Trump could also get so unpopular, he pulls Republicans down even in Florida.
TBF, state Sen. Brian Nathan and state Rep. Emily Gregory did win Republican seats, so it could translate statewide.
Exactly.
I'm certainly hoping it also translates to the Senate race. Still a long shot, I'm sure, but things have gotten pretty wild lately...
yep, I was thinking about that too. Ugh.
Still, a bit surprised Fishhead isn't doing better, given all that. I guess the fact that Trump's blessing of. Black Republican (however terrible) > total groyper Nazi still works should be a sign of...something. I do wonder what happens when he and his personality cult are finally gone.
Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson’s Republican primary opponent in the Iowa Senate race, tells his supporters not to vote for Hinson because she doesn’t share “our values.”
Jim Carlin got 26% of the vote in the GOP primary.
https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2066890812340728311?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
I hope they do! Turek would be a big upgrade over Ernst or Hinson.
Actually, I'm wrong: I also have to decide about the NYS Assembly, District 66. 6 people are running for the seat. I'm going to see if the NY Voter Guide is online. I think it is.
It is: https://www.nycvotes.org/whats-on-the-ballot/june-2026-primary-election-voter-guide/state-assembly-member-june-2026-primary-election-voter-guide-nyc-votes/?officeType=7&officelevel=2&geoAreaAbbr=66&districtID=02&boroughCode=M
I like many of the things a lot of these candidates have to say, but on the face of it, I'm most impressed with David Siffert. What do you all think? I want to fill out this ballot by tomorrow and mail it off.
I like Siffert too. I don't mind Ahmad, Kiely or Yee, but from those brief descriptions, I did not like Arnold or Kessler.