Or, he really is not the best candidate. It would be quite odd for a reputable polling firm to “push” one candidate like that. Sometimes the most logical answer is the correct one.
Wouldn't it be nice if Darline's attempt to get a full term ended up with Annie Andrews in the U.S. Senate? I know it's hard to flip, but the thought is nice.
I honestly think this year will be a litmus test of whether this strategy works: if these Dem-backed Indies get even close to knocking out Reps in these hyper-rural conservative states, I don't think it's a bad idea to consider running more in the future. So far we have Achilles in ID-Sen, Osborn in NE-Sen, and Hill in AK-AL. Bodnar in MT-Sen and Bengs in SD-Sen are also races to watch if the Dems there drop out.
The MT SoS says Dems will have to replace their nominee, even if she drops out, which she's been very clear she's not going to do anyway. So our only shot here is for the Dem nominee to endorse and campaign with Bodnar, which she's probably not going to do either. Alani Bankhead does not appear to be a team player.
Risch is the perfect candidate to target for this type of campaign- He is an 83 year old career politician who hasn't had a competitive campaign in decades.
It would be a long shot but it would be cheap and have no downside to try in some of these low cost rural red states. This year should be incredibly blue and many of these incumbents in deep red states haven't had to campaign in decades and will likely take their race for granted. Some like Risch are the type of entrenched geriatric career politicians that people have had more than enough of. I also suspect that we will have the best opening we have had in years in rural areas with the fallout from the tariffs and opposition to data centers. Hopefully this will be a perfect storm situation in some of these races.
I think either tact works just with slightly different framing. For recent Dems it's "I left the Dem party for [xyz reason] and now I'm running as a true independent for this seat" while for long-time independents it's "I've always been an independent voice and I'll bring that to Congress" or something along those lines.
We won't know until November but I am very skeptical of this gambit particularly when the Idaho guy announced he was leaving for vague purposes that do not differentiate him from Democrats.
The fact that Club for Growth is attacking Collins for supporting amnesty, and not for the insider trading that sent him to prison, says a lot about the current state of the Republican Party.
Can any one from Michigan comment on this Senate race??? Saw one poll where Al-Sayed was down TEN??! To Rogers?
I think that poll linked is a push poll. Doesn't reflect the trend of other MI-SEN polls.
Are you saying they pushed only regards to him? Because the other Dems in that poll weren't nearly as bad.
It's possible. If the polls were showing similar trends like the one linked here, AES would be in BIG trouble. Like worse than Hong's chances in WI.
I can't wait for the MI primary to be over. I pray whoever is the winner keeps the seat blue in November.
Yeah, unfortunately we have some of our own Christine O'Donnell candidates driving things in key states. Not good.
Or, he really is not the best candidate. It would be quite odd for a reputable polling firm to “push” one candidate like that. Sometimes the most logical answer is the correct one.
Wouldn't it be nice if Darline's attempt to get a full term ended up with Annie Andrews in the U.S. Senate? I know it's hard to flip, but the thought is nice.
Annie Andrews.
Thanks! I got her name mixed up with OH's Amy Acton.
ID-Sen: Dem nom David Roth drops out, boosting former Dem state rep Todd Achilles who's running as an Indy: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article316693055.html
Could end up being an upset in ID.
According to the Bullfinch Group, in a direct Risch v. Achilles matchup -- Risch only leads by 4 points with 23% of voters remaining unsure.
https://www.thebullfinchgroup.com/post/for-immediate-release-independent-todd-achilles-surges-on-informed-ballot?ref=ivn.us
I honestly think this year will be a litmus test of whether this strategy works: if these Dem-backed Indies get even close to knocking out Reps in these hyper-rural conservative states, I don't think it's a bad idea to consider running more in the future. So far we have Achilles in ID-Sen, Osborn in NE-Sen, and Hill in AK-AL. Bodnar in MT-Sen and Bengs in SD-Sen are also races to watch if the Dems there drop out.
The MT SoS says Dems will have to replace their nominee, even if she drops out, which she's been very clear she's not going to do anyway. So our only shot here is for the Dem nominee to endorse and campaign with Bodnar, which she's probably not going to do either. Alani Bankhead does not appear to be a team player.
Yeah, it does seem like MT and national Dems are doing all they can to support Bodnar at least, even to the point of DSCC cutting ties with Bankhead
Well, they have to win (not just get close) for it to be worthwhile.
Risch is the perfect candidate to target for this type of campaign- He is an 83 year old career politician who hasn't had a competitive campaign in decades.
I would be beyond shocked if Risch were to lose. Idaho last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1974.
If Risch loses his seat, then it'll be catastrophic for the GOP in November. It means that AK, TX, IA, and FL Sen seats flip too.
It would be a long shot but it would be cheap and have no downside to try in some of these low cost rural red states. This year should be incredibly blue and many of these incumbents in deep red states haven't had to campaign in decades and will likely take their race for granted. Some like Risch are the type of entrenched geriatric career politicians that people have had more than enough of. I also suspect that we will have the best opening we have had in years in rural areas with the fallout from the tariffs and opposition to data centers. Hopefully this will be a perfect storm situation in some of these races.
Does this gambit work if you only left the Democratic Party very recently for the explicit purpose of running for US Senate?
Like Osborn and Bodnar are legitimate independents who have no ActBlue donations, etc.
I think either tact works just with slightly different framing. For recent Dems it's "I left the Dem party for [xyz reason] and now I'm running as a true independent for this seat" while for long-time independents it's "I've always been an independent voice and I'll bring that to Congress" or something along those lines.
We won't know until November but I am very skeptical of this gambit particularly when the Idaho guy announced he was leaving for vague purposes that do not differentiate him from Democrats.
https://idahocapitalsun.com/2025/07/01/idaho-lawmaker-steps-down-from-legislature-to-run-for-u-s-senate-seat-as-independent-candidate/
The fact that Club for Growth is attacking Collins for supporting amnesty, and not for the insider trading that sent him to prison, says a lot about the current state of the Republican Party.