Morning Digest: Arizona Democrats won big in 2022. Can they keep their gains?

Republicans are eager to reclaim two key posts, attorney general and secretary of state

Democrat Kris Mayes is seeking reelection this fall as attorney general of Arizona (credit: Kris Mayes Facebook)

Leading Off

AZ-AG, AZ-SoS

After a strong showing that saw them win multiple statewide races in 2022, Arizona Democrats now face competitive contests as they seek to defend those gains this fall.

In addition to Gov. Katie Hobbs, both Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, who hold two of the most powerful posts in the state, are up for reelection in November.

Three notable Republican contenders have lined up to challenge Mayes, whose 280-vote victory over now-Rep. Abe Hamadeh made her the first Democrat to serve as Arizona’s top law enforcement official in a dozen years.

Her most prominent foe is state Senate President Warren Petersen, who, like Hamadeh, has advanced conspiracy theories about Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in the state. Petersen played a role in the chamber’s ill-fated decision to hire a group called the Cyber Ninjas— an outfit run by an election denier—to “audit” the results, a debacle that cost the state $9 million and, of course, failed to demonstrate any fraud.

Petersen, though, is not the best-funded Republican competing in the Aug. 4 primary.

That distinction goes to Rodney Glassman, a former Tucson City Council member who got his start in politics as a Democrat. After badly losing the 2010 general election to Sen. John McCain, Glassman switched parties in 2015, though his three attempts to win elected office as a Republican have all ended in failure. His most recent defeat came in 2022, when he lost the primary in the attorney general’s race to Hamadeh 34-24.

Despite that poor record, though, Glassman’s wealth and connections mean he’s more than just a mere gadfly. The candidate, according to fundraising reports released this week, finished 2025 with $3.3 million on hand, with a large part of that coming from Glassman himself. Peterson, by contrast, had a considerably smaller $1.3 million available.

The third notable Republican running is Greg Roeberg, who launched his campaign in November by praising himself as “an outspoken defender of election integrity.” Roeberg, who also says he’s worked as a Donald Trump campaign attorney, personally provided almost all of the $416,000 his campaign had on hand at the end of December.

Candidate filing doesn’t close until April 6, so this roster of challengers may grow still larger.

The GOP has yet to coalesce around a frontrunner, but all three candidates have faulted Mayes for prosecuting the Republicans she says participated in a scheme to fraudulently hand the state’s electoral votes to Trump in 2020. Petersen, Glassman, and Roeberg have all pledged to drop the charges against the defendants, who are headed to trial no earlier than this fall, according to Mayes’ team.

Mayes has said she’ll continue her work on this long-stalled case as long as she’s in office, even if she loses reelection.

“If we fail to hold accountable those who sought to overturn the legal winner of Arizona’s electoral votes, we risk future manipulation,” she told Capitol Media Services last year.

Mayes finished last year with $2.8 million on hand to defend herself. The incumbent, unlike her opponents, does not face serious opposition in the primary.

The race for secretary of state isn’t as busy or expensive, but the ideological faultlines are similar.

Fontes won his first term 52-48 against Republican Mark Finchem, a member of the state House and one of several election deniers who sought the GOP nomination in 2022. The office had previously been held by Hobbs, who narrowly flipped the post in 2018.

The only notable Republican campaigning in this year’s race is state Rep. Alex Kolodin, a member of the state’s affiliate of the far-right Freedom Caucus who helped provide legal representation for the state’s fake electors following the 2020 election. The state bar later sanctioned Kolodin for bringing a case that sought to overturn the election results in bad faith as part of a settlement that required him to admit he’d violated ethics rules.

Fontes finished last year with a $461,000 to $252,000 cash advantage over his opponent, though Arizona’s history of close statewide races means that both this race and the contest for attorney general will likely see heavy spending.

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The redistricting wars are still raging

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

Democrats in the Virginia legislature have introduced a bill to hold an April 21 special election on a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional districts.

The bill must pass both chambers and be signed by Gov. Abigail Spanberger to take effect. Democrats easily approved the redistricting amendment on party-line votes last week and should have no trouble passing the election bill. Spanberger, who was just sworn in over the weekend, signaled her support for the redistricting effort in her inaugural speech before legislators on Monday.

4Q Fundraising

• CO-Sen: John Hickenlooper (D-inc): $1.1 million raised, $3.8 million cash on hand

• GA-Sen: Derek Dooley (R): $1.1 million raised, $2.1 million cash on hand; Buddy Carter (R): $700,000 raised, additional $1 million self-funded, $4 million cash on hand

• SC-Sen: Annie Andrews (D): $1.47 million raised

• CA-40: Young Kim (R-inc): $1.55 million raised, $5 million cash on hand

• TX-18 (special): Fundraising period covers Oct. 16 to Jan. 11:

  • Christian Menefee (D): $685,000 raised, $389,000 cash on hand

  • Amanda Edwards (D): $463,000 raised, $281,000 cash on hand

• IN-SoS: Diego Morales (R-inc): $500,000 raised (in 2025), $1.2 million cash on hand; Beau Bayh (D): $1.8 million raised (in three months), $1.6 million cash on hand

Senate

FL-Sen

Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, who had been considering a bid against Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, announced her entry into the race on Thursday.

Nixon is the second notable Democrat to jump in, following former Brevard County school board member Jennifer Jenkins, who’s been running since September. The November election will be for the final two years of the term originally won by Marco Rubio, whom Moody was appointed to replace last year.

LA-Sen

Louisiana state Rep. Julie Emerson said Thursday that she was exiting the Republican primary, an announcement that came two days after Rep. Julia Letlow launched her own intraparty challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy. Emerson acknowledged that, with the Trump-endorsed Letlow in the race, she stood little chance to secure the GOP nod.

MT-Sen

Seth Bodnar, who had reportedly been mulling a Senate bid as an independent, announced this week that he was stepping down as president of the University of Montana, saying he wants “to consider whether to pursue a new way to serve our state and our nation.”

Last week, when news of Bodnar’s interest in taking on Republican Sen. Steve Daines first broke, media outlets also reported on a widely circulated text message from former Sen. Jon Tester encouraging Democrats to back Bodnar rather than put up a candidate of their own.

SD-Sen

Republican Sen. Mike Rounds confirmed Thursday that he would seek a third term, though there was little suspense about his plans. Donald Trump, who had pledged in 2022 to “never endorse this jerk again,” endorsed the South Dakotan last July, and Rounds never indicated he was considering retirement.

VA-Sen

Mark Moran, a former investment banker who starred on the reality TV show “FBoy Island,” announced Wednesday that he would wage a long-shot primary campaign against Democratic Sen. Mark Warner.

“I have the same concerns over affordability, over owning a house [as anyone],” Moran told the news site ARLnow. “Mark Warner doesn’t know what it’s like to not be able to afford the down payment on a house in Northern Virginia.”

Warner, who served a term as Virginia’s governor before he was elected to the Senate in 2008, announced last month that he’d run for what he said would be his final term in the upper chamber.

Governors

CA-Gov

Assemblymember Buffy Wicks, one of the last notable Democrats still weighing a late bid for California’s open governorship, took her name out of contention in a statement to Politico on Thursday.

The only other major Democrat believed to still be interested is San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. A Politico report on Jan. 12 said Mahan was “expected to decide in the next week,” but he has yet to make an announcement.

KS-Gov

Former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has endorsed Democratic state Sen. Ethan Corson’s bid for her old job, joining current Gov. Laura Kelly, who gave her backing to Corson in November.

Corson faces a fellow member of the Senate, Cindy Holscher, in the August Democratic primary. Holscher recently released an internal poll giving her a 33-9 lead over her rival, though most voters were still undecided.

MN-Gov

Sen. Amy Klobuchar filed paperwork with the state on Thursday for a potential campaign to succeed Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a fellow Democrat who announced earlier this month that he would no longer seek a third term. Klobuchar did not confirm she would run, but an unnamed source tells the Minnesota Reformer that she’ll “make an announcement of her plans in the coming days.”

RI-Gov

Republican Jessica de la Cruz, the minority leader of the Rhode Island Senate, said this week that she would not run for governor. The only notable Republican running is Aaron Guckian, the executive director of the Rhode Island Dental Association, while Democratic Gov. Dan McKee faces a tough primary challenge from former CVS executive Helena Foulkes.

House

CT-05

Firefighter and retired Navy SEAL Chris Shea just became the first notable Republican to announce a campaign against Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes. Shea, though, faces a tough battle to flip Connecticut’s 5th District, a constituency in the northwestern corner of the state that Republicans have tried in vain to reclaim ever since now-Sen. Chris Murphy won it two decades ago.

In 2022, Hayes fended off former state Sen. George Logan in a 50.4 to 49.6 squeaker, but she won a rematch by a wider 53-47 spread two years later. Kamala Harris also carried the 5th by a comparable 52-46 margin.

LA-05

State Sen. Rick Edmonds and Misti Cordell, who serves as chair of the Louisiana Board of Regents, have both announced that they’ll join the Republican primary for the open 5th Congressional District.

Both new arrivals bring connections to their respective campaigns for this safely red constituency in the northeastern part of the state.

Edmonds, who was first elected to the legislature in 2015, is a Southern Baptist pastor who is an official at the Louisiana Family Forum, an influential conservative organization. Cordell, meanwhile, was appointed to her current post by Gov. Jeff Landry, and reporter Greg Hilburn says she’s “close” to him.

Hilburn also mentions John Kay, who served as Landry’s policy director before founding a lobbying firm, as a potential GOP candidate. Numerous other Republicans are publicly considering whether to enter the race to succeed Rep. Julia Letlow, who announced this week that she would run for the Senate.

SC-04

Businessman David Atchley announced Thursday that he would challenge South Carolina Rep. William Timmons, a fellow Republican who only narrowly won renomination in 2024, in the June 9 primary.

Atchley told the Post & Courtier that Timmons, who was first elected in 2018 to represent the dark red 4th District around Greenville, wasn’t paying enough attention to his constituents.

Timmons defended his accessibility, saying, “My cellphone number is available to 850,000 people, and I pick it up every day, for many of them.” The congressman also confidently predicted victory against Atchley, telling the paper, “He’s welcome to put his name in the hat, but he will be dispatched like the others.”

It was Timmons, though, who was nearly dispatched just one cycle ago.

The incumbent had spent the prior two years dealing with rumors that he’d had an extramarital affair. Timmons declined to address whether he’d been unfaithful to his wife, who filed for divorce in 2022, though he denied his critics’ insinuations that he’d used his office to try to conceal the matter.

State Rep. Adam Morgan, who served as chair of the state’s branch of the Freedom Caucus, was happy to keep the story in the public eye as he challenged Timmons in 2024.

Timmons enjoyed the support of Donald Trump and Gov. Henry McMaster, as well as a huge financial edge. All these advantages, though, were barely enough to save the Timmons, who turned back Morgan by just a 52-48 margin.

Trump, however, still views Timmons more favorably than many GOP primary voters do. MAGA’s master endorsed the congressman in October, pledging, “HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”

Ballot Measures

OR Ballot

The leaders of Oregon’s Democratic-dominated legislature said Wednesday that they would pass legislation setting a May date for a referendum that could partially repeal a new transportation funding plan.

Last month, conservative activists submitted enough signatures to place their referendum on the November ballot, prompting Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek to ask lawmakers to scrap the entire law when they reconvene next month.

Senate President Rob Wagner and House Speaker Julie Fahey, however, say they’ve concluded it’s not legally possible to prevent the referendum by preemptively repealing the funding plan, deciding instead that their best course of action is to schedule it for an earlier date.

Polling Pile

• MN-Sen (D): Public Policy Polling (D) for Clear Voice Minnesota (pro-Peggy Flanagan): Peggy Flanagan: 40, Angie Craig: 28.

• MT-01: Peak Insights (R) for Leadership in Action (pro-Ryan Zinke):

  • Ryan Zinke (R-inc): 47, Ryan Busse (D): 41.

  • Zinke (R-inc): 48, Sam Forstag (D): 38.

The memo did not mention Matt Rains, who is also running as a Democrat.

• TX-AG (R): Pulse Decision Science (R) for Chip Roy: Chip Roy: 49, Joan Huffman: 10, Mayes Middleton: 9, Aaron Reitz: 6. Poll was conducted Dec. 14-17.

Correction: This piece incorrectly identified the poll of the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Minnesota as being sponsored by Peggy Flanagan’s campaign. The poll was conducted for Clear Voice Minnesota, which supports Flanagan.