Morning Digest: Minnesota GOP recruits an upgrade for Senate but still faces a daunting race

It's not just the general election: Can a self-described "pro-choice Republican" win a primary?

Minnesota Republican Michele Tafoya (credit: Michele Tafoya campaign site)

Leading Off

MN-Sen

Former sportscaster Michele Tafoya announced Wednesday that she would run for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, a move that gives Republicans a credible candidate for what remains a difficult race.

The GOP’s Senate campaign arm quickly backed the new candidate, with National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott praising her as “the only candidate with the common-sense leadership Minnesotans are desperately craving.”

Tafoya, who worked as a sideline reporter for NBC’s Sunday Night Football for more than a decade, entered the race almost a year after Democratic Sen. Tina Smith announced her retirement. Several Republicans entered the race to succeed Smith throughout 2025, but none of them have impressed powerful conservative groups.

The most recognizable Republican competing against Tafoya in the Aug. 11 primary is former NBA player Royce White, a far-right extremist who played just three games for the Sacramento Kings in 2014 and badly lost his bid for the state’s other Senate seat in 2024.

The field also includes retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and Navy veteran Tom Weiler, who have both struggled to raise money, as well as former state GOP chair David Hann, who was ousted from his leadership post following the 2024 elections.

But while Tafoya, who has not run for office before, gives national Republicans an alternative to this underwhelming lineup, she’ll still have a tough time winning a general election.

Minnesota Republicans last won a statewide contest in 2006 when Gov. Tim Pawlenty narrowly secured a second and final term. While the GOP has come close to breaking that long losing streak several times over the ensuing two decades, they’ve yet to come out on top.

ICE’s ongoing operations in and around Minneapolis also could hinder the GOP in a state that Donald Trump lost in all three of his campaigns.

Tafoya did not focus on the crisis—including the fatal shooting of Renee Good by an ICE agent—in her launch video. The candidate instead showed footage of demonstrators surrounded by smoke as she narrates, “The pressure is mounting again, and the stakes could not be higher.”

Tafoya later addressed Good’s death in an interview with NOTUS, saying, “What happened to Good was awful. … It should not have happened.” The candidate, though, argued that Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who are both Democrats, have made the situation worse with their denunciations of ICE.

Tafoya, who identifies as “a pro-choice Republican,” also predicted that her stance on abortion would not be a liability in her primary. She told the site, “There’s more room than people realize” for Republicans who label themselves as she does.

Democrats have a smaller, but more closely watched, primary this summer that pits Rep. Angie Craig against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.

Craig finished September with nearly $3 million in the bank, which was more than three times the $836,000 that Flanagan reported having available. Craig’s campaign has since announced that she ended last year with $4 million banked, while Flanagan has not yet publicized her totals for the fourth quarter. (Updated reports are due with the FEC on Jan. 31.)

The congresswoman, who flipped a GOP-held House seat in 2018, has also pitched herself as a stronger candidate for the general election. Craig responded to Tafoya’s entry with a video in which she said that “Democrats can’t afford to nominate someone who’s never won a competitive election on her own.”

Flanagan, who was elected statewide twice as Walz’s running mate, has a different read on the race. The lieutenant governor has campaigned as a progressive alternative to Craig, who has embraced a more moderate image. Flanagan has highlighted her opponent’s vote for the Laken Riley Act, which empowers the Trump administration to deport undocumented immigrants who haven’t been convicted of criminal charges.

Flanagan likewise reacted to Tafoya’s decision to run on Wednesday by arguing that she, rather than Craig, would present a stronger contrast in a general election.

“Minnesotans are sick and tired of folks who enable Trump’s agenda -- on both sides of the aisle,” Flanagan tweeted. “I’m ready to defeat Michele Tafoya and the MAGA agenda in November.”

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The Downballot Podcast

The redistricting wars are still raging

Donald Trump’s redistricting wars are not over yet—not by a long shot. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard catch listeners up on the latest developments in every state where new maps are still in play, and there are quite a few.

Some of the biggest questions: Will Virginia Democrats push the limits for a “10-1” map? Will infighting among Republicans in Florida doom the GOP’s hopes of a new gerrymander? And will a brand-new ruling out of New York that just struck down a red district withstand further legal scrutiny? We answer all these and more!

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Election Recaps

Special Elections

Democrat LeMario Brown and Republican Steven McNeel advanced out of Tuesday’s all-party special election for a GOP-held seat in the Georgia Senate and will face off again on Feb. 17. The results of the first round, though, underscore how difficult it will be for Brown to flip the 18th District next month.

Brown, who was the only Democrat on the ballot, took first with 37%, while McNeel outpaced fellow Republican Eric Wilson 21-20 for the second runoff spot. McNeel, Wilson, and three other Republicans scored a combined 63% of the vote, however, which is similar to Donald Trump’s showing here in 2024.

Redistricting Roundup

NY Redistricting

A New York judge struck down the state’s 11th Congressional District for violating the rights of minority voters under the state constitution, ordering that it be redrawn in just two weeks.

In an 18-page ruling issued on Wednesday, Justice Jeffrey Pearlman of the Supreme Court (which is a trial court in New York) agreed with plaintiffs that the 11th District diluted the votes of Black and Latino voters, preventing them from acting in concert to elect their preferred candidates.

Under the current map, the district is a Republican-leaning constituency that includes all of Staten Island and a swath of southern Brooklyn. If Pearlman’s ruling stands, Staten Island would instead likely be merged with a section of lower Manhattan or possibly more liberal portions of Brooklyn. That could in turn make Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis much more vulnerable to a Democratic challenger this fall.

Pearlman ordered the state’s redistricting commission to produce a new map by Feb. 6, though the court could conceivably impose its own map should the commission fail to act.

4Q Fundraising

• MT-01: Ryan Zinke (R-inc): $1.1 million raised, $2.8 million cash on hand

• NY-12: Alex Bores (D): $2.2 million raised, $2 million cash on hand

• PA-03: Ala Stanford (D): $467,000 raised

• VA-01: Jason Knapp (D): $250,000 raised (in six weeks), $200,000 cash on hand

Governors

IA-Gov

Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand finished 2025 with a gigantic $13.2 million to $3.2 million cash on hand advantage over Rep. Randy Feenstra, the GOP frontrunner for Iowa’s open governorship.

And while Sand appears to be on a glide path through the June 2 primary, new campaign finance reports show that one wealthy Republican could make trouble for Feenstra.

That opponent is investor Zach Lahn, who launched a campaign to succeed retiring GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds in November. Lahn finished last year with $2.1 million in the bank, with most of that coming from the candidate.

Three other notable Republicans are also competing in the primary, but none of them have come close to matching either Feenstra or Lahn financially.

Adam Steen, who is a former high-level member of Reynolds’ administration, had $336,000 available at the close of the year, compared to former state Rep. Brad Sherman’s $85,000 war chest. The final option, state Rep. Eddie Andrews, had a paltry $5,000 on hand.

Sand, the only Democrat who holds statewide office, faces veteran political operative Julie Stauch in his primary. Stauch, however, ended the year with just $12,000 banked.

MI-Gov

An obscure group has launched an ad campaign castigating Republican Rep. John James as “totally disloyal” to Donald Trump, the Detroit News reports. James is the GOP frontrunner in the race for Michigan’s open governorship, but it’s not yet clear who is meant to benefit from this offensive.

The spot in question, from an outfit called Michigan First Principles, begins with footage from last year that features Trump telling James he’s “not sure I’m happy about” the congressman’s decision to join the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Trump made those comments after James opted to give up his competitive House seat to try to replace the termed-out Whitmer, a decision Trump was anything but thrilled with.

“President Trump saved John James’ career when he endorsed him for Congress,” the narrator interjects. “But when Trump asked James to stay in Congress, James turned his back on him.”

The ad continues by highlighting James’ 2022 comments criticizing Trump for suggesting it was time for the “termination” of the U.S. Constitution. While the congressman returned to the MAGA fold the next year, the narrator blasted James for saying Trump “can’t be trusted.”

James faces several opponents in this summer’s primary, but the congressman’s team is arguing that the new ad campaign isn’t meant to benefit any of them.

Rather, the Detroit News reports that Michigan First Principles has links to both John Yob, a GOP consultant who aided wealthy businessman Perry Johnson’s failed 2022 campaign for governor, and W. Alan Wilk, who is currently involved with a separate group backing former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s independent campaign for governor.

James’ team responded by accusing supporters of both Duggan and Johnson, who has yet to announce whether he’ll run again, of “teaming up” to take down the congressman.

Yob told the Detroit News the nonprofit “isn’t my group,” though he said he “support[s] the direction of the advertising.” A spokesperson for Duggan, who left the Democratic Party at the end of 2024 to run as an unaffiliated candidate, tweeted, “Based on what we’ve seen from the James campaign so far, the last thing Mike Duggan wants is for John James to lose the Republican nomination.”

James is taking part in a busy nomination contest that features former Attorney General Mike Cox, former state House Speaker Tom Leonard, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, and pastor Ralph Rebandt.

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the favorite to win the Democratic primary against Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

NE-Gov

Former state Sen. Lynne Walz announced Wednesday that she would challenge Republican Gov. Jim Pillen this fall. Walz, who is a distant cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is the first notable Nebraska Democrat running for a post that her party last won in 1994.

Pillen, though, is still waiting to learn whether wealthy agribusinessman Charles Herbster, whom he defeated in a competitive 2022 primary, will seek a rematch. Donald Trump, who supported Herbster four years ago, endorsed Pillen in November, but Herbster has continued to flirt with another campaign.

OR-Gov

Oregon state Rep. Ed Diehl announced Wednesday that he would seek the Republican nomination to oppose Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek.

Diehl, though, will have a challenging task defeating state Sen. Christine Drazan, who lost a close race to Kotek in 2022, in the May 19 GOP primary.

Morning Digest, sponsored by Ripple On Impact: After close loss, Oregon Republican announces rematch for governor

Drazan reported having just shy of $1 million in her coffers as of Tuesday, while Diehl has just under $30,000 in his legislative account. Kotek, who does not face serious intraparty opposition, has $2.6 million banked.

(Unusually, Oregon requires candidates for state-level office to report new contributions and expenditures within 30 days of activity, rather than on a set schedule; this deadline is shortened to seven days closer to the primary and general elections.)

Diehl, however, has connections he can draw on as he seeks to become the first Republican to win the governor’s office since the late Vic Atiyeh secured reelection in 1982.

Diehl is one of the leaders in an effort to partially repeal a transportation funding plan that Kotek signed into law last year. Diehl and his allies submitted enough signatures last month to place a referendum on this fall’s ballot, a move that automatically paused the targeted parts of the law.

Morning Digest, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics: GOP-backed referendum puts Oregon's new transportation funding plan at risk

Kotek has since called for Oregon’s Democratic-led legislature to repeal the entire law when it reconvenes next month and revisit it in 2027. But Diehl isn’t happy with that approach. Instead, the Republican and his allies want to preserve some provisions in the otherwise objectionable law, including one that removes an existing requirement for tolls around Portland.

A few other Republicans are campaigning to take on Kotek, though they have yet to make much of an impact. Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell began running in April, but she had just shy of $50,000 banked as of Tuesday.

The field also grew again this week when David Medina, who was charged in federal court for allegedly entering the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6 riots, entered the race. Medina, who has a large social media following, was covered by the blanket pardon Donald Trump issued on the first day of his second term.

And another big name—quite literally—is still lurking. Former NBA center Chris Dudley, whose 49-48 loss to Democrat John Kitzhaber in 2010 was the closest any Republican has come to winning the governorship since Atiyeh, didn’t rule out another try in November.

While the 6’11” Dudley has been quiet about his plans over the last two months, Oregon Public Broadcasting now says he’s “widely rumored to be planning to enter the race.”

House

AK-AL

Commercial fisherman Bill Hill announced Wednesday that he would campaign as an independent against Republican Rep. Nick Begich for Alaska’s only U.S. House seat.

Hill, who served as a school superintendent in the small rural community of Bristol Bay Borough, entered the race three months after pastor Matt Schultz began running as a Democrat.

But while Hill, who has a history of donating to Democratic candidates, would likely split the progressive vote if he ran in almost any other state, the Last Frontier’s unique top-four electoral system makes it tougher for Begich to triumph over a divided field.

Alaska requires all candidates from all parties to run on a single ballot in the Aug. 18 primary. The four contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to the general election, where voters will be allowed to rank their choices.

Hill told the Anchorage Daily News he’s never belonged to any party and wouldn’t say whether he’d caucus with Democrats or Republicans should he get elected to Congress. The newcomer, though, has argued that anyone who wants to defeat Begich should consolidate behind his independent effort to win in this conservative state.

A memo Hill sent to potential backers, which was first shared by the political news site Alaska Landmine, argues that the key to ousting Begich is to run a candidate who can “win over those ticket splitters who typically vote Republican but are willing to vote across the aisle for a candidate with cross-partisan appeal.”

The document goes on to lay out the case that Hill, who it identifies as a “pro-choice Independent from rural Alaska,” is the person for the task.

CA-14

Businesswoman Rakhi Israni announced Tuesday that she would run to succeed Rep. Eric Swalwell, a fellow Democrat who is running for governor of California.

Israni’s team subsequently told Politico the new candidate had brought in $1 million during the first 24 hours of her campaign for the safely blue 14th District. Her campaign said that some of Israni’s haul was self-funded, though it did not disclose how much.

LA-05

A larger roster of Louisiana Republicans say they’re interested in replacing Rep. Julia Letlow, who just announced that she would leave the safely red 5th District behind to challenge GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy for renomination. The most prominent potential candidate, though, is keeping political watchers guessing whether he wants to return to the House.

That person is former Rep. Garret Graves, who did not seek reelection in 2024 after GOP lawmakers responded to a court order to pass a new map by making his old 6th District majority Black and safely Democratic.

Graves replied to an inquiry from the Shreveport Times’ Greg Hilburn about his interest in the 5th District, but his response revealed little about his thoughts on a comeback.

“You look at Washington and can’t help but think people would have to be crazy to want to run for Congress,” he texted. “Then, you look at some of the announced candidates and think, perfect fit.”

But while Graves infuriated numerous Pelican State Republicans, including Gov. Jeff Landry and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, during his first stint in office, at least one would-be opponent said he’d defer to the ex-congressman. State Rep. Dixon McMakin informed the Greater Baton Rouge Business Report, “If he gets in, I will not be running. If he gets out, I will probably highly consider running.”

Other Republicans say they’re ready to run for the 5th, which includes the northeastern corner of the state and part of the Baton Rouge suburbs, no matter what.

State Sen. Stewart Cathey told NOLA.com’s Tyler Bridges he’d announce a campaign “shortly.” Fellow state Sen. Rick Edmonds also said he plans to get in.

Other Republicans informed Bridges they’re interested as well. The potential field includes Misti Cordell, a member of the Louisiana Board of Regents, as well as state Reps. Daryl Deshotel and Michael Echols. Another member of the lower chamber, Jack McFarland, also let Hilburn know that he hasn’t ruled anything out.

One candidate, though, didn’t even wait for Letlow to seek a promotion before launching his own effort. Activist Larry Davis, who owns a conservative podcasting company, kicked off a campaign against the incumbent last week when she still appeared likely to seek reelection.

Louisiana’s candidate filing deadline is Feb. 13, so Davis won’t need to wonder long who he’ll be running against for what’s now an open seat. The GOP primary will be on May 16, with a runoff set for June 27 in the likely event that no one wins a majority of the vote in the first round.

NJ-12

Physician and former Army paratrooper Rick Morales joined the packed Democratic primary field for New Jersey’s open 12th District on Wednesday.

Morales, who at 71 would be one of the older House freshmen, argued that his military and medical experience make him the ideal candidate to stand up to Donald Trump.

“I jumped out of airplanes 15 times; one time, the parachute didn’t even open until the very last moment,” he told the New Jersey Globe’s Joey Fox. “I didn’t do that to live to this point and see it all destroyed by a renegade president.”

Fox also notes that Morales, who is of Puerto Rican ancestry, is currently the only Latino candidate running in the June 2 primary. That could help him stand out in a constituency where one in five residents identify as Hispanic or Latino.

Poll Pile

• AK-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for the DSCC: Mary Peltola (D): 49, Dan Sullivan (R-inc): 47.

• GA-Sen (R): Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Plymouth Union Public Research: Mike Collins: 32, Buddy Carter: 16, Derek Dooley: 12.

• NC-Sen (R): Change Research (D) for Carolina Forward: Michael Whatley: 36, Don Brown: 6, Michele Morrow: 4, undecided: 54. The sponsor tells The Downballot that 530 Republican primary voters were sampled.

• NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire

  • Chris Pappas (D): 50, John Sununu (R): 45 (Sept.: 49-43 Pappas).

  • Pappas (D): 52, Scott Brown (R): 42 (Sept.: 52-37 Pappas).

• NH-Sen (R): UNH: Sununu: 48, Brown: 25 (Nov.: 40-27 Sununu).

• NH-Sen (D): UNH: Pappas: 65, Karishma Manzur: 11 (Nov.: 57-8 Pappas).

• TX-Sen (D): HIT Strategies (D) for Jasmine Crockett: Jasmine Crockett: 46, James Talarico: 33.

• NH-Gov: UNH:

  • Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 49, Deaglan McEachern (D): 41.

  • Ayotte (R-inc): 50, Jon Kiper (D): 39.

Kiper is currently running, while McEachern is still considering whether to enter.

• CO-03: Expedition Strategies (D) for Alex Kelloff: Jeff Hurd (R-inc): 48, Alex Kelloff (D): 39.

• NH-01 (D): UNH: Stefany Shaheen: 33, Heath Howard: 10, Maura Sullivan: 8, others 3 or less, undecided: 39 (Sept.: Shaheen: 29, Sullivan: 8, Howard: 4).

• NH-01 (R): UNH: Hollie Noveletsky: 15, Anthony DiLorenzo: 10, others 4 or less, undecided: 66.

• NH-02: UNH: Maggie Goodlander (D-inc): 54, Lily Tang Williams (R): 40 (Sept.: 51-39 Goodlander.)

• NH-02 (D): UNH: Goodlander (inc): 66, Paige Beauchemin: 12.