Morning Digest: A surprise Trump endorsement triggers a surprise Senate bid

Bill Cassidy seemed to have avoided Trump's wrath. Now he has a top-tier challenger.

Rep. Julia Letlow, Republican candidate for Senate in Louisiana (credit: Julia Letlow Facebook)

Leading Off

LA-Sen

Rep. Julia Letlow announced Tuesday that she would challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s May 16 Republican primary, a move that came three days after Donald Trump promised to endorse her if she entered what was already a busy race.

Letlow kicked off her campaign by positioning herself as a MAGA-friendly alternative to Cassidy, who infuriated the party base five years ago when he voted to convict Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

“A state as conservative as ours? We shouldn’t have to wonder about how our senator will vote when the pressure’s on,” the congresswoman says in her launch video. “Louisiana deserves conservative champions, leaders who will not flinch.”

Cassidy responded to Letlow’s entry by saying that he would continue his campaign for a third term. The senator also defended his right-wing bona fides, tweeting, “I am a conservative who wakes up every morning thinking about how to make Louisiana and the United States a better place to live.”

Plenty of Cassidy’s fellow Bayou State Republicans disagree. Several opponents had already lined up to run against the incumbent before Letlow entered the race, and they’ll need to decide whether to remain in the primary now that Trump has taken sides.

State Treasurer John Fleming was also quick to say he’s not going anywhere, though, telling the conservative Washington Examiner, “I’m not looking for someone to anoint me to this position.”

The GOP field also features state Rep. Julie Emerson, state Sen. Blake Miguez, St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden, and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on June 27, which raises the bar for Cassidy since he can’t skate through with a plurality.

But any Republicans who submit their name ahead of the Feb. 13 candidate filing deadline will have a challenging time getting past both Cassidy, who still enjoys the benefits of incumbency, and the well-connected Letlow.

Letlow first ran for office in 2021 after her husband, Rep.-elect Luke Letlow, died from COVID before he could be sworn in as the new representative for the 5th Congressional District. But while several Republicans were initially talked about as potential candidates to represent this safely red constituency in the northeastern corner of the state, Julia Letlow, who at the time was an official at the University of Louisiana Monroe, deterred any serious opponents from running.

Letlow went on to easily win the special election and become the first woman to represent Louisiana in Congress since Democrat Mary Landrieu left the Senate following her 2014 loss to Cassidy.

She quickly became popular with the GOP establishment, so much so that her allies made sure to keep her district intact after a federal court ordered the state to draw a second congressional district in 2024 that would allow Black voters to elect their preferred candidates.

While plaintiffs proposed new boundaries that would have created a compact district empowering Black voters, such a redraw would have almost certainly come at Letlow’s expense.

GOP lawmakers instead gave the short straw to GOP Rep. Garret Graves by transforming his 6th District into a sprawling constituency that snakes from Shreveport in the northwest corner to the state capital of Baton Rouge, some 250 miles away. While Gov. Jeff Landry’s antipathy toward Graves was likely a key reason for this decision, NOLA.com also reported that state lawmakers were looking out for the “well-liked” Letlow.

Graves ended up retiring rather than face an all but certain defeat, and Letlow easily won reelection. The congresswoman’s name soon surfaced as a possible primary foe for Cassidy, but until this weekend, the senator had reason to be optimistic that she’d stay out—and that he’d have a strong chance to beat anyone who did run.

The incumbent, who had been a loyal vote for Trump during most of his first term until impeachment, responded to Trump’s return to the White House by morphing back into an administration ally. Most notably, Cassidy, a physician, endured widespread condemnation last February when he supplied a key vote to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to run the Department of Health and Human Services.

Cassidy hoped his newfound obedience would dissuade Trump from trying to end the career of a man he’d said in 2021 “could not even be elected dog catcher today.” The senator told Politico last summer that he believed Trump would at least remain neutral in his primary, and the outlet reported last week that Trump had “no plans” to back any of his opponents.

Letlow, for her part, had been deliberating whether to run since at least April of last year, but she seemed unlikely to seek a promotion as recently as last week. The New York Times reported the congresswoman had informed supporters she’d only challenge Cassidy if Trump were to back her, but such an endorsement didn’t seem to be on the horizon.

Everything, though, changed Saturday evening when Trump posted “RUN JULIA RUN!!!” and promised her his “Complete and Total Endorsement” if she did. While the Times said that Trump’s Truth Social missive caught even Letlow by surprise, she quickly seized the opportunity and announced her campaign for the Senate.

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Alaska Democrats land the best Senate recruit of the cycle

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

Virginia’s Democratic-run state Senate approved a constitutional amendment in a party-line vote on Friday that would allow lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map, following the same action by the state House two days earlier.

Because Democrats passed the same amendment just before the state’s elections last November, the measure can now head to voters in time to impact races this fall. Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger has yet to call an election for the amendment, but it will likely take place in April.

Virginia’s congressional delegation is currently split, with Democrats holding six seats and Republicans five. Many Democratic leaders—most vocally state Sen. Louise Lucas—have pushed for a maximalist map that would likely elect 10 Democrats and just one Republican.

Following the landslide passage of a similar measure in California last year, Virginia Democrats widely expect success, and many are already preparing for new districts.

The latest is retired Space Force Col. Bree Fram, who was ousted from the military last year because of Donald Trump’s ban on trans service members. On Tuesday, Fram announced a bid for Congress, telling InsideNoVa she would “run in the district where my house is.”

At the moment, that would place her in the same district as a fellow Democrat, Rep. James Walkinshaw, but Fram told the outlet she did not want “to draw a contrast” with the congressman because she was uncertain where her home would wind up.

4Q Fundraising

• LA-Sen: Kathy Seiden (R): $124,000 raised, additional $1.08 million self-funded, $1.05 million cash on hand

• CO-Gov: Phil Weiser (D): $4.6 million raised (in 2025), $3.4 million cash on hand; Michael Bennet (D): $3.5 million raised, $1.6 million cash on hand

• MN-Gov: Kendall Qualls (R): $600,000 raised

• NV-Gov: Aaron Ford (D): $2.2 million raised (in 2025), $1.5 million cash on hand; Alexis Hill (D): $271,000 raised (from September to December), $60,000 cash on hand

• NY-Gov: Kathy Hochul (D-inc): $5.45 million raised (in six months), $20 million cash on hand; Antonio Delgado (D): $1.2 million raised (in six months)

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): $1 million raised, $3.1 million cash on hand; JoAnna Mendoza (D): $950,000 raised

• IA-01: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc): $1.3 million raised, $3.5 million cash on hand

• MD-06: David Trone (D): $5.41 million self-funded, $3.63 million cash on hand

• MN-AG: Ron Schutz (R): $250,000 raised

• NV-AG: Fundraising period covers all of 2025:

  • Nicole Cannizzaro (D): $645,000 raised, $815,000 cash on hand

  • Zach Conine (D): $460,000 raised, $656,000 cash on hand

  • Danny Tarkanian (R): $390,000 raised, $341,000 cash on hand

  • Adriana Guzman Fralick (R): $199,000 raised, $176,000 cash on hand

Senate

AL-Sen

Donald Trump endorsed Alabama Rep. Barry Moore on Saturday in the Republican primary for the Senate seat that GOP incumbent Tommy Tuberville is giving up to run for governor.

The hardline anti-tax Club for Growth joined Trump that same evening in backing Moore, an election conspiracy theorist and member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus.

The show of force for Moore comes despite several polls that have found him trailing Attorney General Steve Marshall in the May 19 primary.

The conservative site Yellowhammer News added some more data to the pile on Tuesday when it shared a newly completed poll that shows Marshall outpacing Moore 26-13. Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson was a close third with 10% in this survey from Remington Research, with two other candidates taking 2% or less. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on June 16.

The poll was conducted Jan. 16 through 19, with Trump’s endorsement coming a day after it went into the field. Yellowhammer did not mention whether this poll was conducted on behalf of a client.

Candidate filing closes on Friday, so Moore’s intraparty opponents have only a few days left to reevaluate what Trump’s endorsement means for their campaigns. Marshall, though, responded to the unwelcome development with a defiant statement declaring, “Alabama - you know me by now. I don’t back down, and I most certainly don’t back up.”

Another Republican, however, has decided to just stay out of the race altogether. Former Rep. Mo Brooks, who waged a disastrous 2022 campaign for the state’s other Senate seat, said Friday he wouldn’t run for any office this year.

KY-Sen

Elon Musk has contributed $10 million to a super PAC supporting businessman Nate Morris in the May 19 GOP primary for Kentucky’s open U.S. Senate seat, Axios reports.

This is Musk’s first major donation since his disastrous foray into last year’s battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The world’s wealthiest man responded to progressive Susan Crawford’s double-digit victory in that race by telling Bloomberg News he was “going to do a lot less in the future,” though he added, “I see a reason to do political spending in the future, I will do it.”

Evidently, Musk has since decided that Morris, who is running to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, is worthy of his largesse. Morris, who has drawn notice from the MAGA faithful with his relentless attacks on the former GOP Senate leader, faces Rep. Andy Barr and former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron this spring.

ME-Sen

The deep-pocketed Senate Leadership Fund announced it would spend $42 million this fall to keep Maine’s Senate seat in the Republican column, even though Sen. Susan Collins has yet to announce a bid for reelection.

SLF’s move may in fact be aimed at convincing Collins, the most vulnerable Republican senator up this year, that she’d enjoy heavy financial support if she runs again. Last week, Collins told NBC that she’d make an announcement about her plans “soon.”

Governors

CA-Gov & Los Angeles, CA Mayor

Developer Rick Caruso, who’d been weighing bids both for California’s open governorship and for mayor of Los Angeles, said Friday that he wouldn’t run for either office this year. Caruso, a Democrat, spent well over a year keeping political observers guessing which race he’d enter before finally deciding to remain on the sidelines.

KS-Gov

Former Kansas City Royals executive Dayton Moore said Friday that he would not enter the Aug. 4 GOP primary for Kansas’ open governorship.

MD-Gov

Former Gov. Larry Hogan said in a Tuesday op-ed in the Baltimore Sun that he has “no intention of running for office again,” a move that takes him out of contention for this year’s Republican primary to take on Democratic Gov. Wes Moore.

While Hogan used his essay to call on Maryland Republicans to “invest in a new generation of candidates,” the GOP will have a difficult time landing a strong candidate to face Moore in this loyally blue state. Anyone who wants to take on this challenging task has until Feb. 24 to file.

MN-Gov, MN-AG

Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison announced on Tuesday that he would not join the race to succeed Gov. Tim Walz, a fellow Democrat, and would instead seek a third term as the state’s top law enforcement official.

So far, no major Democrats have jumped in following Walz’s decision earlier this month to abandon his quest for an unprecedented third four-year term as governor. The only one to explicitly express interest in a bid so far is Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who would likely clear the field were she to run. Republicans, meanwhile, have a crowded race featuring more than half a dozen notable candidates.

House

AR-02

Republican Rep. French Hill, who turned in an unimpressive showing in his 2022 primary, is set to launch his first broadcast TV ad on Wednesday, the GOP firm Medium Buying reports.

Hill’s only opponent in the March 3 primary is Chase McDowell, a consultant who lost a bid for a seat in the Arkansas state House in 2020. McDowell, who announced his new campaign in May, had raised roughly $110,000 through late September, but he had just $18,000 left at the end of the third quarter. (Updated reports covering the final three months of 2025 are due Jan. 31.)

While Hill, who ended the last reporting period with about $2.7 million banked, is in no danger of getting outspent by McDowell, the six-term congressman has reason to guard against an upset.

Hill prevailed 59-41 four years ago against an underfunded intraparty opponent who attacked him for his insufficient fealty to Donald Trump. That result, while not close, was also not a strong showing for an incumbent in a primary, especially given Hill’s big financial edge.

No Republican stepped up to challenge the congressman in 2024, though Hill is not taking any chances this time. Whoever wins the GOP nod should have no trouble in the 2nd Congressional District, a constituency in the central part of the state that Trump carried 57-41.

CA-01

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has called a special election for California’s vacant 1st Congressional District to coincide with the state’s regularly scheduled primary on June 2, with a second round of voting on Aug. 4 if needed—the latest dates allowed under the law.

The election, which became necessary after Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa unexpectedly died earlier this month, will take place under the old district lines, which heavily favored the GOP, rather than using the new, Democratic-leaning boundaries.

However, even in the likely event that Republicans prevail, Newsom’s timetable will keep LaMalfa’s seat empty for as long as possible, depriving the GOP of a key vote in the narrowly divided House.

Ordinarily, a special election must take place within 154 days of a vacancy arising, as we explained after LaMalfa’s death. Newsom, however, took advantage of a legal provision that allows a wait of up to 214 days if it’s possible to consolidate a special with an already-scheduled regular election. Candidates will likely have to file by early March, though activity is already underway.

Democrat Audrey Denney, an agriculture consultant who was already running in the regular election, announced just before the holiday weekend that she’d also enter the special election. The other major Democratic contender for a full term, state Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire, has not yet said whether he’ll run in the special.

Before Newsom set the dates for the special election, one Republican, Assemblyman James Gallagher, said he’d run for the partial term. However, Gallagher, who has the support of the late congressman’s widow, Jill LaMalfa, has yet to decide on seeking a full term.

In both the special and regular elections, all candidates from all parties will run together on a single ballot in June. In the special, though, a runoff can be averted if one candidate wins a majority of the vote. If not, the top two vote-getters will face off again in August. For the full term, two candidates will advance to November no matter how the primary shakes out.

CA-06

SEIU California, one of the most influential labor unions in the state, has given its backing to former state Sen. Richard Pan, who is one of several Democrats running for the open 6th District in the Sacramento area.

FL-02

Two more Republican names have popped up as potential candidates for northern Florida’s newly open 2nd District following GOP Rep. Neal Dunn’s retirement, while a couple of prominent Democrats have also expressed some interest despite the district’s conservative lean.

On the GOP side, Bay County Tax Collector Chuck Perdue says he’s considering a bid. Austin Rogers, who serves as general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott, is also reportedly looking at the race, according to Florida Politics.

For Democrats, former Rep. Al Lawson, who lost to Dunn 60-40 in 2022 after the GOP dismantled the neighboring 5th District, tells the Tallahassee Democrat that he, too, is thinking about a comeback at the age of 77.

Former Rep. Gwen Graham, who was Dunn’s immediate predecessor and the last Democrat to represent the 2nd District, offered similar sentiments to the paper. Graham declined to seek reelection in 2016 after the same court-ordered redistricting that gave Lawson an opening in a revamped 5th District also made the 2nd much redder.

The demolition of Lawson’s district, though, moved the 2nd back toward the left, though it remains heavily Republican. In 2024, it supported Donald Trump by a 59-41 margin, according to calculations from The Downballot.

MA-08

Former Gov. Deval Patrick has endorsed attorney Patrick Roath in his bid to oust Rep. Stephen Lynch in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts’ 8th District. Roath previously worked for Patrick in a variety of capacities, including as a deputy press secretary for his successful reelection campaign in 2010.

NJ-11

The Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association says it’s spending almost $600,000 on TV ads to boost Tahesha Way, whose tenure as New Jersey’s lieutenant governor concluded on Tuesday.

The group’s spot praises Way, one of a huge number of Democrats vying in the Feb. 5 primary for the vacant 11th District, for standing up to Donald Trump on a variety of fronts, including her efforts in her second role as secretary of state to safeguard voting rights. The message echoes that of Way’s own advertising. Previously, the DLGA spent $80,000 on mailers touting Way.

Another deep-pocketed outfit, AIPAC’s United Democracy Project, is also getting involved in the primary by targeting former Rep. Tom Malinowski. It’s not clear what AIPAC’s beef with Malinowski might be, and as per usual, the group’s ad doesn’t mention its raison d’etre—Israel—at all.

Rather, it attacks Malinowski over a 2019 vote for a bipartisan border spending bill that was supported by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi and most House Democrats, arguing he voted “to fund ICE.” While some progressives decried the deal, as the New Jersey Globe noted, many backed it, including one of the state’s most liberal members, Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman.

Malinowski also called out AIPAC for latching onto an issue far outside its stated portfolio.

“AIPAC supports plenty of Republican candidates across the country who are pro-mass deportations,” he told the Globe. “It’s not like this is their issue.”

So far, UDP has reported spending more than $800,000 in its effort to thwart Malinowski’s bid.

NY-15

Assemblymember Amanda Septimo said Friday that she would “suspend” her campaign against Rep. Richie Torres after being diagnosed with lupus. Septimo, who announced her bid last month, did not say whether she might reevaluate her plans in the future.

Torres still faces former Assemblymember Michael Blake and public defender Dalourny Nemorin in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 15th District, a safely blue seat based in the Bronx.

SC-01

Retired Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore announced a bid for South Carolina’s open 1st Congressional District, joining two other notable Democrats in the race to succeed Republican Rep. Nancy Mace.

Lacore, a former helicopter pilot who rose to the rank of three-star admiral and chief of the Navy Reserve, kicked off her campaign with an endorsement from EMILYs List. Last year, Lacore was fired without explanation by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as part of a broad purge of top military leaders.

Already seeking the Democratic nod are attorney Mac Deford and former state party official Mayra Rivera-Vazquez. Half a dozen notable Republicans are also running for the 1st District, which supported Donald Trump by a 56-43 margin in 2024.

TN-09

Activist DeVante Hill, who led racial justice protests in Memphis in 2020 following the police killings of Breonna Taylor and George Floyd, has joined the race to unseat Tennessee Rep. Steve Cohen in the August Democratic primary.

Cohen was already facing a high-profile challenge in the safely blue 9th District from state Rep. Justin Pearson, so Hill’s entry could actually help the congressman by splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Unlike nearly every other Southern state, Tennessee does not require primary runoffs, so Cohen could win renomination with a simple plurality.

TX-19, TX-32

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has issued two endorsements in contested GOP primaries for open House seats, giving his backing to conservative activist Abraham Enriquez in the 19th District and attorney Jace Yarbrough in the 32nd.

Enriquez, who is a founder of the right-wing activist organization Bienvenido, is one of seven Republicans competing to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Jodey Arrington in a dark-red seat based in Lubbock and rural West Texas.

The only current or former elected official in the race is Jason Corley, who is involved in a legal dispute over whether he should have relinquished his spot on the Lubbock County Commission when he announced his campaign under the state’s resign-to-run law.

The county’s top executive removed Corley from his post last month, but a state judge soon restored him to the body. An appeals court rejected a challenge to that ruling from the man who briefly replaced Corley on the commission, Mark Meurer, but Meurer is pursuing a further appeal to the state Supreme Court.

The GOP field also includes lobbyist Tom Sell, businessman Matt Smith, and four lesser-known candidates.

Yarbrough, meanwhile, is campaigning for a constituency that the GOP-dominated legislature completely overhauled when it passed a new gerrymander last summer, prompting Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson to run in the 33rd District instead.

Yarbrough, who lost a 2024 primary runoff for a seat in the state Senate, is one of nine Republicans running for Congress here.

The lineup includes two wealthy candidates who also unsuccessfully sought higher office last cycle: businessman Paul Bondar, who challenged Rep. Tom Cole for renomination in Oklahoma; and pastor Ryan Binkley, who waged a largely ignored campaign for president. Six other contenders are also jockeying for a spot in a likely runoff.

The Lone Star state holds its nomination contests on March 3, with a May 26 runoff for races where no candidate wins a majority.

Secretaries of State

MI-SoS

Deputy Secretary of State Aghogho Edevbie said Friday that he was ending his campaign for the Democratic nomination for secretary of state, a decision he says he made because Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist’s entry earlier that week had “changed that calculus.”

The Democratic field still features Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, former state Sen. Adam Hollier, and former Michigan Lottery Commissioner Suzanna Shkreli. The nomination contest is set to be resolved on April 19 when the party holds what’s known as an endorsement convention.

Poll Pile

• NC-Sen: Change Research (D) for Carolina Forward: Roy Cooper (D): 47, Michael Whatley (R): 42. https://carolinaforward.org/blog/the-january-carolina-forward-poll/

• NE-02 (D): GBAO (D) for John Cavanaugh: John Cavanaugh: 43, Crystal Rhoades: 15, Denise Powell: 10, Kishla Askins: 4, James Leuschen: 3.

• NC Supreme Court: Change Research (D) for Carolina Forward: Sarah Stevens (R): 42, Anita Earls (D-inc): 41.