The fellowship of christian athletes has done a remarkable job infiltrating sports at the high school level and having it trickle to support right wing causes.
Awkward timing, or at least theoretically. She'll probably have her formal campaign launch wearing camo with ICE agents hauling a shirtless guy out of his home in the background.
I'm more inclined to believe Talarico's internal and not just because I want him to win. He showed his crosstabs and as far as I can tell, this one doesn't. I'd be very interested in seeing her crosstabs if possible, though, as that would give us more to go on in terms of whose poll is more realistic.
Former San Francisco Supervisor and mayoral candidate in 2018 Jane Kim is running for Insurance Commissioner in California, and not for Pelosi’s old seat. She has a day one endorsement from Bernie. Any word on her housing record? I saw some people on Bluesky questioning her positions as a possible Insurance Commissioner — they’re skeptical of her. Thoughts?
Very ignorant renter question. I suspect things like homeowners insurance/liability insurance/renters insurance do affect building housing. But does the state insurance commissioner office/policymaking itself get involved in building?
I think alienalias was stating that they had an ignorant renter question and then asked about the role of the insurance commission in housing policy. At least, that’s how I’m reading their comment.
I can understand the way you read the comment though
Jane Kim took over as Supervisor in District 6, which was represented by Chris Daly, the notorious nemesis of Gavin Newsom when he was Mayor. She's pro affordable housing and years ago was able to broker a deal with the Giants to increase affordable housing in the Mission Rock development by 40%. Also, Kim as Supervisor worked to stop unjust evictions through legislation.
But I have no idea how to answer those insurance commissioner questions. I usually go by what policymakers do at the local and state level.
Well, Jane Kim used to be a member of the Green Party and supported Matt Gonzales' mayoral campaign back in 2003 against Gavin Newsom. But she's been a Democrat for a long time since 2008, before she was originally Supervisor.
Whatever Bluesky thinks of her, if it's petty nonsense I could care less.
I've spoken with Kim, Ben Allen, and Patrick Wolff. Kim has some big bold ideas but they will require legislation. Allen's ideas are also good AND he has a solid track record of getting good things done inside the legislature. I'll be endorsing Allen.
Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024. Add in the Democrats who stayed home then, but won’t stay home in 2026 along with a slight “buyers remorse” reversion from some voters who did vote for Trump, but won’t say they did now and this seems like a pretty reasonable poll/sample at R+10 recalled vote.
Peltola was by far the biggest recruitment get by Democrats for the Senate this cycle. No one else comes close. Not even Cooper manages to single handedly take a state completely from red to purple (any Democrat nominated would be competitive this year in NC, not so in AK). A Senate Majority is well within reach even though it’s a very uphill climb.
And more importantly, Sullivan did NOT have a Democratic challenger to face in 2020. Independent Candidate Al Gross lost to him that year by 12%+ points.
Pre-ranked choice voting, there were two primaries in Alaska; the Republican primary and the ADL primary (for Alaskan Independence, Democratic and Libertarian). The highest vote getter for each party moved forward, and Independents could win the Democratic nomination (the AKDP actually sued to allow this in 2017, trying to get Gov. Bill Walker to run in the primary)
It's more than just those. We need an all of the above approach to spread GOP attention and resources thin. That's why a last-minute Laura Kelly entrance in Kansas in June would be amazing. It instantly moves a seventh GOP seat squarely onto the playing field, and doesn't give the GOP much time to bring her approval figures down. As for Texas, if there were ever any conditions in which we might flip it, the stars seem to be slowly aligning for it. We need basically this:
1.) Talarico wins in March with no runoff. Paxton and Cornyn go to a runoff with Paxton solidly in first.
2.) Cornyn and the NRSC keep spending tens of millions nuking Paxton in the runoff, to no avail. Talarico spends the next two-and-a-half months raking in money, introducing himself to voters as a Democrat who is not going to take away people's guns and believes in strong border protection.
3.) Dem outside groups intervene in the Republican primary, portraying Paxton as too extreme for Texas, in contrast with Talarico's above positions.
4.) Paxton wins the runoff. GOP freaks out, realizing they'll need to spend tens of millions more to prevent a Dem win here.
5.) Drive Paxton's numbers further into the ground by focusing on his corruption and wasted money on lawsuits. Remind voters that Texas Republicans impeached Paxton. Trot out a few GOP endorsements for Paxton in ads. Create a permission structure for center-right voters to vote for Talarico.
Exactly. As much as I think Cassidy might deserve to reap what he's sown, I would actually prefer he'd win than have Trump notch another win with a stooge who owes him.
I know the ARG poll isn't highly thought of, and the results here are a bit Trafalgar in the reverse, but I was struck by this statement in the write up:
Our national monthly survey on presidential performance and the economy has lost subscribers over concerns that any unfavorable results may upset the current administration. We need your support to continue providing unbiased insights. Please join us in continuing this monthly survey.
Former banker and contestant on Fuckboy Island (as one of the Nice Guys™️) is running a generally progressive/anti-establishment/populist primary against Mark Warner for the VA Senate seat. Says he won't accept corporate, billionaire or AIPAC donations.
Sad a better primary challenge couldn't emerge. On Bluesky Tom Perriello and Jennifer Carroll Foy were floated as options, either probably would have been better candidates.
It's hard to take his candidacy seriously when he purposely has a campaign site out of the 1990s because he claims consultants would charge him up to $10k to set up a campaign site. But the dial up tone on the website is a nice touch.
NEVADA: Surely Nevada Democrats are not guilty of such astonishing ineptitude and political malpractice??
.
"No one filed to challenge the 2 conservative/GOP justices on the Nevada supreme court who are up for reelection this year. The deadline was a few days ago. They'll run for new terms unopposed."
– Daniel Nichanian (better known as Taniel), Editor of Bolts Magazine
They pushed out the DSA leadership in Nevada and replaced them with this? Whatever you think of Judith Whitmer and her group, this is ridiculous. One would think they'd reverse the party's issues, but they didn't. Ugh.
It’s pretty embarrassing, no doubt. Democrats better not sleep on the Georgia Supreme Court races this summer either. You’d think that national Dems would’ve learned the importance of these court races after leaving Annette Ziegler unopposed in Wisconsin in 2017 and after seeing all the damage being done in North Carolina.
After the Riggs v. Griffin debacle, I pray my fellow Democratic and left-leaning independent North Carolina voters realize how key these judicial races are. The way Newby and the GOP majority on that court have acted since 2023 is appalling and enraging.
Watching a fellow Republican judge (appointed by Trump no less) smack Newby and Griffin down last May was very satisfying.
It was always going to be tough for Ford to knock out an incumbent governor. I think he can do it with the tourism drop and tariffs though. Plus Lombardo is nowhere near as popular as Sandoval consistently was.
The main benefit of having Ford as the gubernatorial nominee, even if he falls just short of toppling Lombardo, is that his presence prevents a 2014-style collapse in the other statewide races, legislature, and Congressional races.
From today’s edition of "The Barron’s Daily", a newsletter for investors:
(Apologies for the long post, but this is worth quoting at length.)
. "Trump Got a Warning From Treasuries Selloff.
. How It Could Curb Greenland Tariff Threats."
===================================
Bond vigilantes are prowling the markets. There’s a question over whether the activist fixed-income investors have Japan or U.S. government debt in their sights but ultimately it might not matter if the market action forces the Trump administration to retreat.
Markets got an unwelcome triple whammy as equities, Treasuries, and the dollar all sold off Tuesday. The most consequential was the drop in prices of U.S. government debt, suggesting President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs against fellow NATO members has reawakened the “sell America” trade. The yield on the 30-year Treasury hit its highest level since September and hovered near the psychologically important 5% level.
The bond market action suggests Europe has some cards to play when it comes to pushing back against Trump’s desire to acquire Greenland. A Denmark-based pension fund enjoyed a rare moment in the spotlight when it said it was going to sell its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, while Deutsche Bank analysts noted European countries own $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and equities that could be weaponized in a trade war.
Soaring yields have reined in the Trump administration before. The president noted the bond market reaction had been “very tricky” when he said he would scale back some tariffs in April last year. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted Wednesday that the Treasuries selloff had more to do with moves in the Japanese bond market, where investors are fretting about increased government spending and tax-cut pledges.
Bessent might be right about the immediate trigger, but that doesn’t mean the White House can ignore market signals about U.S. government debt falling out of favor as a haven asset amid worries about overreach. James Carville, advisor to President Bill Clinton, notably once said he wants to be reincarnated as the bond market, because it can intimidate everyone. That’s true even for American presidents.
He's a little more moderate than Behn and the race will have less of a national profile, so he can make a greater impact while drawing less attention. I doubt van Epps will lose, though. Best is probably 52-48.
I think it's realism. There's not really a good reason to think we can win this Trump +22 seat in a higher turnout midterm if we lost by 9 points in the special. I appreciate people like Dixie running and fighting the good fight, but I would rather donate my time and money to people running in races we can conceivably win. If the presidential margin were 10 points closer, it'd be different.
In international news, the post-Bondi hate speech laws may have just split the Australia Liberal-National Coalition with the entire National backbench leaving the backbench today. Susan Ley’s leadership of the Liberals may not be long for this world, though at a little under a year is about average for Australian party leadership hehe
As someone who wholeheartedly supports governments regulating speech in instances like Germany does with Nazi speech, salutes or other expression, I couldn't disagree more. Absolutist approaches to rights, (no restrictions, rules, or curbs, ever for any reason) have been an unmitigated disaster for this country, for several reasons, least among them guns. The German example is the best modern counter example to slippery slope. Societally, they have decided that a certain part of speech is to be policed. They have stuck to it for almost 80 years, with other expression and speech remaining unaffected.
No right is absolute. Even in this country, speech ends at threats etc. The government polices this. Thank god they do.
How did it help Germany? They have the farthest right party of any European country which keeps surging, and have become experts in making coded dog whistles. Who decides what speech is right and wrong? What if a future Trumpist Australian PM decides to use the hate speech laws on liberals?
The LNP is lucky Pauline Hanson is no Nigel Farage otherwise they'd be facing the same existential crisis their Tory cousins in the UK are facing with the right flank gravitating to a newer, less damaged populist right option while their left flank flees to more centrist options.
The LNP have already lost their affluent, urban base to centrist independents and Labor.
Incumbent NC Supreme Court justice Anita Earls raised a record $1.3M last last year ($2M in total, more than double previous off-year records for SCONC campaigns) for her high stakes re-election campaign against MAGA legislator Sarah Stevens.
Is Wes Moore going to put his money where his mouth is and back a challenger to Ferguson? I'm tired of these cute strongly worded letters and advisory commissions.
Crockett's crosstabs. This seems bulls**t. Talarico has an unprecedented 23 percent to Crockett's 61 percent of the Black vote while trailing her among young voters in contrast to every other poll released.
Also her campaign strategy outlined in the poll rests on the discredited turnout theory. High turnout didn't help Democrats in 2020 and you need to persuade right leaning voters in a state like Texas where there are more Rs than Ds. So many studies have been written on this. Texas can be triaged if she wins, she's clueless.
I don't see the parallels. That was a legitimate three-way race with a prominent Hispanic candidate. This is functionally a two-way race. It'd be another wrinkle to Crockett/Talarico clearing 50% maybe if the third candidate this year had a Hispanic surname, but they don't.
Kirk also ran as a moderate if memory serves. Plus he had strong support in the Austin area. I imagine Talarico is going to clean up with moderates, latinos, and Austin-area progressives in the primary.
For some reason, Bentsen reminds me of Talarico (minus the nepotism) and Kirk being a prominent Black politician from Dallas led me to connect him to Crockett. Crockett isn't necessarily running as a moderate, but she isn't really very progressive, either.
There are two progressives in this race and in a way, the Dem tea party has already been successful by pushing out Colin Allred. Talarico is more populist while Crockett is more about fighting Trump.
MN Senate: Football "sideline reporter" Michelle Tafoya enters senate race.
https://kfgo.com/2026/01/21/1249419/
The fellowship of christian athletes has done a remarkable job infiltrating sports at the high school level and having it trickle to support right wing causes.
Awkward timing, or at least theoretically. She'll probably have her formal campaign launch wearing camo with ICE agents hauling a shirtless guy out of his home in the background.
Verasight/Strength in Numbers poll | 1/14-1/20
Generic congressional ballot 2026 (RV)
🟦Democratic 51%
🟥Republican 43%
—
Generic congressional ballot 2026 (would definitely/very likely)
🟦Democratic 55%
🟥Republican 42%
—
President Trump approval
Disapprove 58%
Approve 40%
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2013968391896227894
New - Senate primary poll - Texas
🔵 Crockett 46%
🔵 Talarico 33%
Hit Strategies #N/A (Crockett internal) - RV - 1/15
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2013968221183873369
Is this race just dead even? Every poll shows a landslide for either candidate.
It's "choose your own adventure".
Like the Maine primary, it's polls showing completely different worlds. We'll see which one is right at least in Texas in less than six weeks.
I'm more inclined to believe Talarico's internal and not just because I want him to win. He showed his crosstabs and as far as I can tell, this one doesn't. I'd be very interested in seeing her crosstabs if possible, though, as that would give us more to go on in terms of whose poll is more realistic.
Which one was Talarico's internal? Emerson was independent.
I didn't realize that; all the more reason to believe it over Crockett's poll.
That wasn't an internal, you don't usually get that level of public crosstabs and granularity in an internal.
CA-11, CA Insurance Commissioner:
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2026/01/21/newsom-takes-his-trump-bashing-to-the-swiss-alps-00738491
Former San Francisco Supervisor and mayoral candidate in 2018 Jane Kim is running for Insurance Commissioner in California, and not for Pelosi’s old seat. She has a day one endorsement from Bernie. Any word on her housing record? I saw some people on Bluesky questioning her positions as a possible Insurance Commissioner — they’re skeptical of her. Thoughts?
Very ignorant renter question. I suspect things like homeowners insurance/liability insurance/renters insurance do affect building housing. But does the state insurance commissioner office/policymaking itself get involved in building?
I think alienalias was stating that they had an ignorant renter question and then asked about the role of the insurance commission in housing policy. At least, that’s how I’m reading their comment.
I can understand the way you read the comment though
Whoops, my fault. Deleting my comment then.
yeah, didn't do that...
Apologies, that one was on me.
Jane Kim took over as Supervisor in District 6, which was represented by Chris Daly, the notorious nemesis of Gavin Newsom when he was Mayor. She's pro affordable housing and years ago was able to broker a deal with the Giants to increase affordable housing in the Mission Rock development by 40%. Also, Kim as Supervisor worked to stop unjust evictions through legislation.
But I have no idea how to answer those insurance commissioner questions. I usually go by what policymakers do at the local and state level.
I may have poorly worded my question. She said something that pissed Bluesky off, but I can't remember what.
Well, Jane Kim used to be a member of the Green Party and supported Matt Gonzales' mayoral campaign back in 2003 against Gavin Newsom. But she's been a Democrat for a long time since 2008, before she was originally Supervisor.
Whatever Bluesky thinks of her, if it's petty nonsense I could care less.
I've spoken with Kim, Ben Allen, and Patrick Wolff. Kim has some big bold ideas but they will require legislation. Allen's ideas are also good AND he has a solid track record of getting good things done inside the legislature. I'll be endorsing Allen.
ALASKA POLL - Senate
🟦 Mary Peltola: 49%
🟥 Dan Sullivan (inc): 47%
——
Net Favs
Peltola: +4
Sullivan: -5
——
•
@ppppolls
for DCCC (Dem) | 1/6-11
• N=611 | Recalled: Trump 50-40
https://politico.com/f/?id=0000019b-dec9-d6ec-a99b-dfe9e6750000
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2013992622537220487?s=20
Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024. Add in the Democrats who stayed home then, but won’t stay home in 2026 along with a slight “buyers remorse” reversion from some voters who did vote for Trump, but won’t say they did now and this seems like a pretty reasonable poll/sample at R+10 recalled vote.
Peltola was by far the biggest recruitment get by Democrats for the Senate this cycle. No one else comes close. Not even Cooper manages to single handedly take a state completely from red to purple (any Democrat nominated would be competitive this year in NC, not so in AK). A Senate Majority is well within reach even though it’s a very uphill climb.
Plus, Sullivan only won his upset seat in 2014 by only 2 points. That is definitely flippable in a D-plus midterm like 2026.
And more importantly, Sullivan did NOT have a Democratic challenger to face in 2020. Independent Candidate Al Gross lost to him that year by 12%+ points.
I don't know why Gross didn't change his affiliation before filing. Like he would've been much closer.
Didn't he win the Democratic primary? Wasn't he supposed to be a Democrat to win the primary in the first place?
Perhaps I don't understand AK too well.
Pre-ranked choice voting, there were two primaries in Alaska; the Republican primary and the ADL primary (for Alaskan Independence, Democratic and Libertarian). The highest vote getter for each party moved forward, and Independents could win the Democratic nomination (the AKDP actually sued to allow this in 2017, trying to get Gov. Bill Walker to run in the primary)
And that two points amounted to only ~5000 votes. Turnout will be a huge factor.
"A Senate Majority is well within reach even though it’s a very uphill climb."
I want to believe... our hopes ride with TX and AK...
It's more than just those. We need an all of the above approach to spread GOP attention and resources thin. That's why a last-minute Laura Kelly entrance in Kansas in June would be amazing. It instantly moves a seventh GOP seat squarely onto the playing field, and doesn't give the GOP much time to bring her approval figures down. As for Texas, if there were ever any conditions in which we might flip it, the stars seem to be slowly aligning for it. We need basically this:
1.) Talarico wins in March with no runoff. Paxton and Cornyn go to a runoff with Paxton solidly in first.
2.) Cornyn and the NRSC keep spending tens of millions nuking Paxton in the runoff, to no avail. Talarico spends the next two-and-a-half months raking in money, introducing himself to voters as a Democrat who is not going to take away people's guns and believes in strong border protection.
3.) Dem outside groups intervene in the Republican primary, portraying Paxton as too extreme for Texas, in contrast with Talarico's above positions.
4.) Paxton wins the runoff. GOP freaks out, realizing they'll need to spend tens of millions more to prevent a Dem win here.
5.) Drive Paxton's numbers further into the ground by focusing on his corruption and wasted money on lawsuits. Remind voters that Texas Republicans impeached Paxton. Trot out a few GOP endorsements for Paxton in ads. Create a permission structure for center-right voters to vote for Talarico.
And Iowa and Nebraska.
So trump is saying she's an idiot who will do as he tells her.
Exactly. As much as I think Cassidy might deserve to reap what he's sown, I would actually prefer he'd win than have Trump notch another win with a stooge who owes him.
He says those things believing, correctly for the most part, that that’s precisely what GOP primary voters want.
I know the ARG poll isn't highly thought of, and the results here are a bit Trafalgar in the reverse, but I was struck by this statement in the write up:
Our national monthly survey on presidential performance and the economy has lost subscribers over concerns that any unfavorable results may upset the current administration. We need your support to continue providing unbiased insights. Please join us in continuing this monthly survey.
https://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/
Former banker and contestant on Fuckboy Island (as one of the Nice Guys™️) is running a generally progressive/anti-establishment/populist primary against Mark Warner for the VA Senate seat. Says he won't accept corporate, billionaire or AIPAC donations.
https://x.com/itsmarkmoran/status/2013949371503513971
That show is so fucking stupid yet it’s an excellent guilty pleasure hatewatch
Lol
Sad a better primary challenge couldn't emerge. On Bluesky Tom Perriello and Jennifer Carroll Foy were floated as options, either probably would have been better candidates.
It's hard to take his candidacy seriously when he purposely has a campaign site out of the 1990s because he claims consultants would charge him up to $10k to set up a campaign site. But the dial up tone on the website is a nice touch.
https://x.com/itsmarkmoran/status/2013949832663052617
Another c**t who thinks Trump has her back.
NEVADA: Surely Nevada Democrats are not guilty of such astonishing ineptitude and political malpractice??
.
"No one filed to challenge the 2 conservative/GOP justices on the Nevada supreme court who are up for reelection this year. The deadline was a few days ago. They'll run for new terms unopposed."
– Daniel Nichanian (better known as Taniel), Editor of Bolts Magazine
https://x.com/taniel/status/2013659925939917095
They pushed out the DSA leadership in Nevada and replaced them with this? Whatever you think of Judith Whitmer and her group, this is ridiculous. One would think they'd reverse the party's issues, but they didn't. Ugh.
It’s pretty embarrassing, no doubt. Democrats better not sleep on the Georgia Supreme Court races this summer either. You’d think that national Dems would’ve learned the importance of these court races after leaving Annette Ziegler unopposed in Wisconsin in 2017 and after seeing all the damage being done in North Carolina.
After the Riggs v. Griffin debacle, I pray my fellow Democratic and left-leaning independent North Carolina voters realize how key these judicial races are. The way Newby and the GOP majority on that court have acted since 2023 is appalling and enraging.
Watching a fellow Republican judge (appointed by Trump no less) smack Newby and Griffin down last May was very satisfying.
*looks nervously at Brian Sandoval’s reelection*
They can in fact be that inept!
This is making me nervous about Aaron Ford.
You'd think we'd have an opening with Las Vegas being in bad shape (from what I've heard.)
It was always going to be tough for Ford to knock out an incumbent governor. I think he can do it with the tourism drop and tariffs though. Plus Lombardo is nowhere near as popular as Sandoval consistently was.
The main benefit of having Ford as the gubernatorial nominee, even if he falls just short of toppling Lombardo, is that his presence prevents a 2014-style collapse in the other statewide races, legislature, and Congressional races.
Sandoval was basically a GOP unicorn
Las Vegas is indeed in very bad shape right now
(Sigh!)
These same idiots are wasting time and resources fighting independent redistricting here…in a state Trump won.
From today’s edition of "The Barron’s Daily", a newsletter for investors:
(Apologies for the long post, but this is worth quoting at length.)
. "Trump Got a Warning From Treasuries Selloff.
. How It Could Curb Greenland Tariff Threats."
===================================
Bond vigilantes are prowling the markets. There’s a question over whether the activist fixed-income investors have Japan or U.S. government debt in their sights but ultimately it might not matter if the market action forces the Trump administration to retreat.
Markets got an unwelcome triple whammy as equities, Treasuries, and the dollar all sold off Tuesday. The most consequential was the drop in prices of U.S. government debt, suggesting President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs against fellow NATO members has reawakened the “sell America” trade. The yield on the 30-year Treasury hit its highest level since September and hovered near the psychologically important 5% level.
The bond market action suggests Europe has some cards to play when it comes to pushing back against Trump’s desire to acquire Greenland. A Denmark-based pension fund enjoyed a rare moment in the spotlight when it said it was going to sell its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, while Deutsche Bank analysts noted European countries own $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and equities that could be weaponized in a trade war.
Soaring yields have reined in the Trump administration before. The president noted the bond market reaction had been “very tricky” when he said he would scale back some tariffs in April last year. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted Wednesday that the Treasuries selloff had more to do with moves in the Japanese bond market, where investors are fretting about increased government spending and tax-cut pledges.
Bessent might be right about the immediate trigger, but that doesn’t mean the White House can ignore market signals about U.S. government debt falling out of favor as a haven asset amid worries about overreach. James Carville, advisor to President Bill Clinton, notably once said he wants to be reincarnated as the bond market, because it can intimidate everyone. That’s true even for American presidents.
— Adam Clark
I feel vindicated by this comment.
And that Carville quote is baller haha
https://nashvillebanner.com/2026/01/21/vincent-dixie-tennessee-district-7-nashville-weather/
TN-7: Democratic state Rep. Vincent Dixie, a candidate in the 2025 special, is running against Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps.
Any opinion on if he'd have a better shot than Behn?
Still glad he's running though. We should have candidates everywhere, what happened with the NV SC race mentioned above was disgraceful.
He's a little more moderate than Behn and the race will have less of a national profile, so he can make a greater impact while drawing less attention. I doubt van Epps will lose, though. Best is probably 52-48.
Call is pessimism or realism, but I think the only chance we really had to flip this was in a lower-turnout special.
I think it's realism. There's not really a good reason to think we can win this Trump +22 seat in a higher turnout midterm if we lost by 9 points in the special. I appreciate people like Dixie running and fighting the good fight, but I would rather donate my time and money to people running in races we can conceivably win. If the presidential margin were 10 points closer, it'd be different.
That’s an excellent name for a candidate running in the South!
In international news, the post-Bondi hate speech laws may have just split the Australia Liberal-National Coalition with the entire National backbench leaving the backbench today. Susan Ley’s leadership of the Liberals may not be long for this world, though at a little under a year is about average for Australian party leadership hehe
The government should not be in the business of policing speech.
As someone who wholeheartedly supports governments regulating speech in instances like Germany does with Nazi speech, salutes or other expression, I couldn't disagree more. Absolutist approaches to rights, (no restrictions, rules, or curbs, ever for any reason) have been an unmitigated disaster for this country, for several reasons, least among them guns. The German example is the best modern counter example to slippery slope. Societally, they have decided that a certain part of speech is to be policed. They have stuck to it for almost 80 years, with other expression and speech remaining unaffected.
No right is absolute. Even in this country, speech ends at threats etc. The government polices this. Thank god they do.
How did it help Germany? They have the farthest right party of any European country which keeps surging, and have become experts in making coded dog whistles. Who decides what speech is right and wrong? What if a future Trumpist Australian PM decides to use the hate speech laws on liberals?
The LNP is lucky Pauline Hanson is no Nigel Farage otherwise they'd be facing the same existential crisis their Tory cousins in the UK are facing with the right flank gravitating to a newer, less damaged populist right option while their left flank flees to more centrist options.
The LNP have already lost their affluent, urban base to centrist independents and Labor.
Incumbent NC Supreme Court justice Anita Earls raised a record $1.3M last last year ($2M in total, more than double previous off-year records for SCONC campaigns) for her high stakes re-election campaign against MAGA legislator Sarah Stevens.
https://www.qcitymetro.com/health/anita-earls-shatters-nc-supreme-court-fundraising-records-in-high-stakes-election-2e6f9393
75% of the funds came from within NC. The same percentage of donations were $100 or less, signaling a strong grassroots donor base.
Is Wes Moore going to put his money where his mouth is and back a challenger to Ferguson? I'm tired of these cute strongly worded letters and advisory commissions.
🎯
https://drive.google.com/file/d/141ZLg-IMwJhmi3iyDor4mw1-BT8dIb5l/view?pli=1
Crockett's crosstabs. This seems bulls**t. Talarico has an unprecedented 23 percent to Crockett's 61 percent of the Black vote while trailing her among young voters in contrast to every other poll released.
Also her campaign strategy outlined in the poll rests on the discredited turnout theory. High turnout didn't help Democrats in 2020 and you need to persuade right leaning voters in a state like Texas where there are more Rs than Ds. So many studies have been written on this. Texas can be triaged if she wins, she's clueless.
Could this be another Ron Kirk vs. Ken Bentsen?
I don't see the parallels. That was a legitimate three-way race with a prominent Hispanic candidate. This is functionally a two-way race. It'd be another wrinkle to Crockett/Talarico clearing 50% maybe if the third candidate this year had a Hispanic surname, but they don't.
Kirk also ran as a moderate if memory serves. Plus he had strong support in the Austin area. I imagine Talarico is going to clean up with moderates, latinos, and Austin-area progressives in the primary.
For some reason, Bentsen reminds me of Talarico (minus the nepotism) and Kirk being a prominent Black politician from Dallas led me to connect him to Crockett. Crockett isn't necessarily running as a moderate, but she isn't really very progressive, either.
There are two progressives in this race and in a way, the Dem tea party has already been successful by pushing out Colin Allred. Talarico is more populist while Crockett is more about fighting Trump.
More like Crockett is all about opening up her mouth and she has nothing else in her agenda.
Crockett is more of a bomb thrower than a progressive imo; which is an unhelpful profile in an uphill state