Morning Digest: Alexander Vindman, who sparked Trump impeachment, launches Senate bid in Florida
Vindman's twin brother, Eugene, won a tough House race in Virginia last cycle
Leading Off
FL-Sen
Alexander Vindman, the former National Security Council advisor whose testimony before Congress sparked Donald Trump’s first impeachment, announced Tuesday that he’d challenge Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in Florida.
“I stepped up when my country needed a soldier,” Vindman, who served in the Army, says in his launch video. “I stood up when someone had to say—no one is above the law. I’m asking you—stand with me now to put a check on Donald Trump and the corrupt politicians who think your tax dollars are their personal piggybank.”
Vindman is the most prominent Democrat to enter the Aug. 18 primary to take on Moody, who was serving as Florida’s attorney general last year when Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her to succeed Marco Rubio in the Senate.
Trump and other major Republicans soon consolidated behind Moody, who faces no serious intraparty opposition in the special election for the final two years of the term Rubio won in 2022. (This seat will be up again for a full six-year term in 2028.)
Vindman, however, isn’t the only Democrat hoping to pull off an upset victory in a former swing state that his party hopes has not moved permanently out of reach. Former Brevard County school board member Jennifer Jenkins announced a bid in September of last year, while state Rep. Angie Nixon joined her just last week.
But Vindman, a Ukrainian immigrant who has lived in South Florida since 2023, brings the kind of extensive national connections that few other first-time candidates have. He and his identical twin brother, Eugene Vindman, developed a large following thanks to their role in Trump’s first impeachment, with Alexander Vindman even guest-starring as himself on two episodes of the comedy “Curb Your Enthusiasm.”
Eugene Vindman rallied hordes of progressive donors across the country in 2024 when he brought in close to $18 million for his successful bid for a competitive U.S. House district in Virginia—an enormous haul that made him one of the strongest fundraisers in the nation. Alexander Vindman stumped for his brother during that race, though many Old Dominion voters unsurprisingly mistook him for the candidate.
Vindman now believes that Floridians will be open to his call for change.
“Florida homeowners are being absolutely screwed because Ashley Moody caved to the big insurance companies,” he says in his launch video. “They put Moody in the Senate to be a ‘yes’ vote for Trump and the billionaires. She’s not Florida’s senator. She’s theirs.”
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Redistricting Roundup
VA Redistricting
A state judge in Tazewell County, a deep red county in southwestern Virginia, ruled on Tuesday that Democrats in the legislature could not proceed with a plan to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would allow lawmakers to adopt a new congressional map.
In a six-page order, Circuit Court Judge Jack Hurley said that Democrats had violated several procedural requirements in their efforts to place their amendment before voters this spring. State constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain, a contributor to The Downballot, explains why Hurley’s conclusions, though, are likely flawed.
In a joint statement, Democratic leaders said they would appeal “immediately,” calling the decision a product of “court-shopping, plain and simple.”
4Q Fundraising
TN-09: Justin Pearson (D): $725,000 raised
WI-01: Bryan Steil (R-inc): $850,000 raised, $4.9 million cash on hand
Senate
LA-Sen
Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy on Tuesday began what his campaign says is a $500,000 opening ad buy, a move that comes just over a week after Donald Trump called for GOP primary voters to swap him out for Rep. Julia Letlow.
Cassidy, though, is hoping to convince fellow Republicans that he’s still a key Trump ally. The senator’s first spot features him talking about his work combating fentanyl, with Cassidy telling the audience that Trump called his bill “the most important legislation he would sign this year.”
MT-Sen
Businessman Trey Gregory has launched a primary challenge against Republican Sen. Steve Daines, telling the Daily Montanan he plans to self-fund his campaign. It’s not clear, though, how much Gregory intends to spend, or whether he can throw a scare into the two-term senator.
Several Democrats are also running against Daines, though former Sen. Jon Tester has encouraged his party to unite behind the independent candidacy of outgoing University of Montana President Seth Bodnar, who looks likely to launch a bid.
Governors
AZ-Gov
Healthcare businessman Hugh Lytle announced Monday that he would challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs as the nominee of the Arizona Independent Party, which previously went by the name “No Labels Party of Arizona.”
Lytle, whose father founded the health insurance giant Anthem, told the Arizona Republic he would self-fund part of his campaign. The candidate, though, did not indicate how much of his own money he might spend.
Lytle, who says he’s identified as both a Democrat and a Republican in the past, framed his campaign as an alternative to both major parties and their ideas. Lytle’s own proposals include “a new state sponsored AI University that provides an amazing education for just $99 per semester.”
House
CA-22
Former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, who lost close races against Republican Rep. David Valadao in 2022 and 2024, tells Politico he’s thinking about a third try.
Two Democrats, however, have already been waging bids for California’s competitive 22nd District for the better part of a year: Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate who’s racked up some notable establishment support, and Visalia school board trustee Randy Villegas, who is running to Bains’ left.
California’s filing deadline for June’s top-two primary is in early March.
FL-16
Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan announced Tuesday that he would not seek an 11th term representing Florida’s 16th District, a conservative constituency that includes Tampa’s southern suburbs and the Bradenton area.
The 74-year-old incumbent, who is the vice chair of the powerful Ways & Means Committee, seemed likely to run again at the end of last year. Donald Trump gave him his “Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election” in November, while Buchanan himself told NOTUS the next month he was preparing another bid. At the time, though, the congressman cautioned that he wasn’t committing to anything before talking matters over with his family.
But while there was immediately speculation on Tuesday that one particular member of his family might seek to succeed him, state Rep. James Buchanan doesn’t sound likely to try to replace his father. The younger Buchanan, who was already running for a seat in the state Senate, instead told Politico, “I’m at peace at where I’m at.”
Plenty of other local Republicans, though, are sure to take a look at the race. The candidate filing deadline is set for June 12, with primaries on Aug. 18.
Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried this constituency 57-42 in 2024, up from his 54-45 showing four years earlier. These numbers, though, could shift if the GOP passes a new gerrymander.
Buchanan, a wealthy car dealer who was a prominent fundraiser for Florida Republicans, was anything but a shoo-in when he first campaigned for Congress in 2006 in a general election that took weeks to determine a winner.
Buchanan saw his opportunity to run for office when Republican Rep. Katherine Harris gave up her seat in the House, a Sarasota-based constituency that was numbered the 13th District at the time, to wage what would prove to be a disastrous Senate campaign against Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson.
Buchanan used his massive personal fortune to win a nasty GOP primary 32-24 against state Rep. Nancy Detert, who lamented, “If I have to lose to a $4 million man, there’s nothing I can do about that.” But while Buchanan began the general election as the favorite in a district that President George W. Bush had carried 56-44 in 2004, Bush’s unpopularity threatened to cost the GOP dearly.
Democrat Christine Jennings, a former banker and one-time Republican, gained traction late in the campaign as she attacked her opponent’s business history. Buchanan and other Florida Republicans also had to deal with the unwelcome publicity surrounding Mark Foley, who resigned in disgrace as the congressman from a neighboring House district after the media learned he sent sexual messages to teenage pages.
Buchanan finished election night with a tiny lead, and election officials certified him as the winner after a recount showed him prevailing 50.1 to 49.9—a margin of 369 votes. Jennings, though, argued that malfunctioning voting machines in Sarasota County had failed to count 18,000 votes in her race even as they tabulated the ballots correctly in other contests.
Jennings was unsuccessful in making her case in court, but she hoped she’d do better in a 2008 rematch. Her path was complicated, though, when Jan Schneider, who was the Democratic nominee against Harris in 2002 and 2004, decided to run as an independent.
Buchanan this time defeated Jennings by a convincing 55-37 spread, with Schneider taking another 6%. The congressman, who had no trouble in 2010, was the target of a Department of Justice investigation the next year over allegations he’d sought straw donations for his campaign, but the probe ended without any charges.
Democrats still hoped that Buchanan, whose constituency was renumbered the 16th District following the 2012 round of redistricting, could be defeated, but they could never seal the deal. Buchanan, who spent his tenure as one of the wealthiest members of Congress, instead convincingly defeated several touted Democratic opponents in what remained a Republican-friendly constituency throughout his entire career.
NJ-08
Mussab Ali, a former president of the Jersey City Board of Education, has launched a primary campaign against Democratic Rep. Rob Menendez.
Ali, who took a close fourth place in last November’s busy race for mayor of Jersey City, began his new effort by slamming the incumbent as “a moderate, corporate Democrat who inherited this seat” in comments to the New Jersey Globe.
Last cycle, Menendez faced a stiff intraparty challenge from Ravi Bhalla, at the time the mayor of Hoboken, but turned him back 52-38. That race was overshadowed by the corruption charges against Menendez’s father, then-Sen. Bob Menendez, who was convicted a few weeks after the primary and later sentenced to 11 years in prison.
Ali told the Globe that he is “not running to question the track record of [Menendez’s] father” but rather in support of a progressive agenda that includes passing Medicare for All and abolishing ICE. As the Globe notes, though, the congressman now enjoys much greater support from progressives, including a recent endorsement from Sen. Andy Kim, the very man who helped end the elder Menendez’s political career just two years ago.
NJ-11
New fundraising reports released just ahead of next week’s Democratic primary for New Jersey’s vacant 11th District show former Rep. Tom Malinowski leading the pack—at the same time as he’s become the No. 1 target of third-party attack ads.
The disclosures show that Malinowski, who represented the neighboring 7th District from 2019 to 2023, brought in more than $1.1 million. That haul also allowed him to spend more than anyone else—just shy of $750,000—and head into the stretch run with the most cash available, with more than $400,000 remaining.
Behind Malinowski was Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill, who raised almost $600,000 and self-funded over $200,000 more, followed by venture capitalist Zach Beecher, who hauled in nearly $500,000.
Two other prominent candidates raised a little more than $400,000 apiece: progressive activist Analilia Mejia and former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way.
Way, however, has benefited from heavy outside spending, with the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association pouring in $1.65 million and a mystery group called Article One PAC deploying another $350,000.
Mejia, meanwhile, has received more than $250,000 in help from the labor-backed Working Families Party and has endorsements from prominent figures on the left like Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Beecher, a former Army paratrooper, is also set to receive some help from VoteVets, which said on Tuesday it was launching a $300,000 ad buy on his behalf.
Malinowski is the only other candidate who’s gotten outside aid, in the form of some $400,000 spent by the 218 Project, a super PAC created by an ally.
But he’s also been hit with nearly $1.5 million in negative spending by the United Democracy Project, the political arm of the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC. It’s not clear why AIPAC has a problem with Malinowski, though, and as per usual, its attack ads haven’t focused on the organization’s defining issue.
Rather, UDP’s initial spot centered on a 2019 border spending bill that most Democrats backed. A new ad released Tuesday also criticizes Malinowski for failing to disclose millions in stock trades he made at the start of the COVID pandemic, a topic Gill has highlighted in his own ads.
Unusually, the primary, which includes another half-dozen contenders, will be held on a Thursday—Feb. 5—as will the April 16 special election. The winner will be the heavy favorite over Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, the only Republican to file.
TX-33, TX-30
Businessman Zeeshan Hafeez’s campaign for the revamped 33rd Congressional District received an endorsement this week from Frederick Haynes, a prominent Dallas-area pastor and fellow Democrat who is the favorite to win the neighboring 30th District.
Hafeez, who backed Haynes’ campaign in turn, is a long shot in his own primary, but he could still have an impact on what’s become an expensive and closely watched battle between two prominent Democrats.
Rep. Julie Johnson is trying to fend off her immediate predecessor, former Rep. Colin Allred, in a safely blue constituency based in Dallas. But the campaigns of Hafeez and a fourth Democrat, perennial candidate Carlos Quintanilla, could make it tougher for either frontrunner to secure the majority of the vote necessary to avert a runoff.
TX-35
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott endorsed state Rep. John Lujan on Tuesday in the 11-person Republican primary for the 35th Congressional District, an open Democratic-held constituency that the GOP dramatically overhauled as part of its new gerrymander.
The revamped district, which now includes part of San Antonio and rural areas to both the east and south of the city, would have backed Donald Trump 55-44 in 2024. Democratic Rep. Greg Casar, whose base is in Austin, is running in the 37th rather than defending a district that has little in common with the one he currently represents beyond sharing a number.
VA-06
Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger has endorsed journalist Beth Macy, the author of the critically acclaimed book “Dopesick,” in her bid for Virginia’s 6th Congressional District.
Macy, who also has the backing of Sen. Tim Kaine, faces former Del. Wendy Gooditis in the Democratic primary, but Spanberger’s move may signal more than just her support for a preferred candidate.
The newly sworn-in governor has also endorsed Democrats running against three other Republican members of Congress: Shannon Taylor in the 1st District, Elaine Luria in the 2nd, and Tom Perriello in the 5th.
It’s possible, then, that Democrats in the legislature intend to target four of the state’s five Republicans when they propose a new congressional map, which is expected to be released by the end of the month. Barring an unexpected retirement by a Democratic incumbent, that would mean lawmakers are planning to draw a map that would likely elect 10 Democrats and just one Republican.
Washington, D.C. Delegate
Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton confirmed Tuesday that she would not seek a 19th term as Washington, D.C.’s nonvoting member in Congress, an announcement that came two days after her campaign filed paperwork with the FEC that formally ended her reelection effort.
Last year, several fellow Democrats had launched campaigns to succeed the 88-year-old Norton, who has faced serious questions about her physical and mental health. While Norton insisted until this week that she was running again, her opponents argued that she should step aside to allow a younger voice to defend the interests of the nation’s capital.
The field includes Councilmembers Brooke Pinto and Robert White; D.C. Board of Education member Jacque Patterson; former DNC member Kinney Zalesne; and Trent Holbrook, who stepped down as a senior Norton staffer earlier this month just before announcing his campaign.
Anyone else who wants to run for this now-open seat has until March 18 to file for the June 16 Democratic primary, a contest that’s tantamount to the election in this bluest of cities. This year’s primaries and general election will be conducted using ranked-choice voting for the first time.
Norton’s eventual successor will replace a politician who, despite usually lacking a vote in Congress, used her voice to advocate for her constituents. She made a name for herself in the national media, including as comedian Stephen Colbert’s longtime “nemesis,” by calling for statehood for her constituents.
Norton, who was first elected in 1990 following a competitive primary, was nicknamed the “warrior on the Hill” during her long service, and she never had trouble earning reelection when she was on the ballot.
Attorneys General
MI-AG
Former U.S. Attorney Mark Totten has dropped his bid to become Michigan’s next attorney general, saying in a statement that he “concluded there is not a viable path forward through an early endorsement convention” on April 19, when Democrats are set to pick a nominee.
Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald, who has led the field in fundraising, appears to have the inside track for the nod, following an endorsement earlier this week from the powerful United Auto Workers union. Also running are Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit and public defender William Noakes.
Republicans have a two-way race between Eaton County Prosecutor Doug Lloyd and attorney Kevin Kijewski that will be decided at a March 28 party gathering.
Poll Pile
SC-Gov (R): Wick for Palmetto Promise Institute: Alan Wilson: 23, Pamela Evette: 17, Nancy Mace: 13, Ralph Norman: 13, Josh Kimbrell: 2, undecided: 33. Poll was conducted Dec. 16-19.
Editor’s Note: In our last Digest, we incorrectly stated that Luther Campbell would decide by Feb. 15 if he’d run for Congress. Campbell wrote that his decision would come on that date.
https://x.com/davidjollyfl/status/2015617494724096157?s=20
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2026/01/27/minnesota-matters-shooting-enters-florida-governors-race-00748781
Florida gubernatorial candidate David Jolly's speech on the murders in Minnesota went viral across social media platforms. Meanwhile, Jerry Demings has been a dud, has a non-existent social media game and doesn't even have a launch video. Both of them are neck to neck in polls.
Oof. Nancy Mace doesn't seem to be doing too well.