Morning Digest: Vulnerable Republican in vulnerable chamber bails
Wisconsin Democrats just got a major boost as they seek to reclaim the "trifecta"
Leading Off
WI State Senate, WI State Assembly
Republican Rob Hutton announced Thursday that he would not seek reelection to the Wisconsin Senate, a move that boosts Democratic hopes of taking control of the chamber—and potentially all of state government.
Republicans currently hold an 18-15 edge in the Senate, so Democrats need to net just two seats this fall to secure their first majority in over a decade. Democrats are also going on the offensive to flip the state Assembly, where the GOP is sitting on a 54-45 advantage.
Control of both chambers will be decided the same night that voters in this perennial swing state select a new governor to succeed retiring incumbent Tony Evers, a Democrat who had to deal with a hostile legislature every day of his two terms in office.
If Democrats defend the governor’s office and flip both the Senate and Assembly, Democrats would finally reclaim the state government “trifecta” they last won in 2008 and relinquished following the GOP wave two years later.
That election saw Republican Scott Walker claim the governorship as the GOP took both chambers, just ahead of a critical round of redistricting. Republicans soon passed new gerrymanders that gave them an iron grip on the legislature, excluding a brief period following a successful set of recall campaigns for the Senate in June of 2012. The GOP, however, quickly regained power that fall.
Evers’ 2018 victory over Walker brought an end to unfettered Republican rule, but the GOP’s gerrymanders—including a new one approved by the conservative majority on the state Supreme Court in 2022—helped them maintain outsized majorities in both chambers.
Progressives, though, flipped control of the state’s highest court in 2023, and the body went on to strike down the state’s legislative maps. That pushed Republicans to grudgingly agree to new lines that much more closely reflected Wisconsin’s swingy nature.
Those new maps ushered in a very different electoral landscape. In 2024, Democrats made big gains in both the Senate, where only half the seats are on the ballot each cycle, and in the Assembly, whose members are up every two years. They’re now hoping to complete the task this fall, while Republicans are determined to forge a new trifecta of their own.
Hutton’s 5th Senate District, which is based in Waukesha County to the west of Milwaukee, plays an important part in the math for both parties.
Veteran pollster Charles Franklin, writing in his PollsAndVotes newsletter, notes that Hutton holds the bluest of the three GOP-held Senate seats that Kamala Harris carried in 2024.
Harris prevailed here 52-46, according to Dave’s Redistricting App, even as she was narrowly losing the state to Donald Trump. Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin performed similarly during her close reelection victory that same night over Republican Eric Hovde.
Harris and Baldwin altogether carried 18 Senate seats, compared to 15 for Trump and Hovde. Of the 17 Senate seats that are up this year, Harris and Baldwin won eight of them.
Based on its political lean, Hutton’s district was already vulnerable even before he announced his retirement. Democratic state Rep. Robyn Vining launched a campaign for the seat last summer and has the support of the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, making her the party’s likely nominee.
On the GOP side, Mike Roberts, who runs a healthcare practice, announced his campaign the day after Hutton made his plans known. Candidate filing doesn’t close until June 1—one of the latest deadlines in the nation—so the field may still change here and in other constituencies.
Hutton’s seat alone won’t be enough, though. Democrats must also prevail on tougher terrain if they’re to take control of the Senate—though they don’t need to run the table. Franklin points out that two other Republicans up for reelection this year, Howard Marklein and Van Wanggaard, hold seats that Harris carried by one percentage point each.
Democrats, however, can’t focus solely on offensive opportunities, though only one of their seats is at risk.
Democratic state Sen. Jeff Smith is defending the 31st District in the Eau Claire area from a fellow senator, Republican Jesse James, who opted to run against Smith after the redrawn maps moved his hometown into the 31st. The constituency the two incumbents are fighting over favored Harris 50-48, while Baldwin won it by a wider 51-46 spread.
The party that wins three of these four races is all but certain to secure control of the Senate, as neither side has any other obvious pickup opportunities this fall.
The battlefield is larger in the Assembly, where Democrats need to net five seats to take charge. While past GOP gerrymanders made that goal all but impossible even in solidly blue years like 2018, the current boundaries give Democrats reason for optimism.
Trump carried 50 seats to Harris’ 49, while two of those pro-Trump constituencies also backed Baldwin. Hovde, for his part, failed to win any Assembly districts that supported Harris.
Five Republicans hold Harris/Baldwin seats, making them the Democrats’ top set of targets this fall. Franklin, in a separate piece, takes a look at these five key contests.
The two Trump/Baldwin seats are split between the parties, with Republican Patrick Snyder occupying one and Democrat Steve Doyle the other. No Democrats sit in Trump/Hovde districts, but both sides may take an interest in trying to flip some of the constituencies that Trump or Harris carried by low single-digit margins.
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4Q Fundraising
NH-Sen: Scott Brown (R): $500,000 raised, $900,000 cash on hand
House
IL-02
Illinois state Sen. Willie Preston acknowledged to Fox 32 that he’d been charged in 2010 with domestic violence against his now-wife.
“I made one of the biggest mistakes of my life,” Preston, who is competing in the busy March 17 Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District, told the station after it uncovered a police report. “It was an isolated incident. Happened one time. I slapped my wife.”
Brittany Preston, who was the senator’s girlfriend at the time, also informed Fox 32 she had decided not to pursue the matter. She added, “That’s something that was 16 years ago. Since then we have come so far with therapy, with counseling, with additional guidance.”
Willie Preston was in the news in November when the Chicago Tribune reported about his history of social media posts supporting Donald Trump and attacking Joe Biden. Preston did not deny writing the posts but claimed that he did not actually vote for Trump, saying his social media history amounted to “shit-talking.”
MD-05
Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer has endorsed Del. Adrian Boafo, his former campaign manager, in the race to succeed him in Maryland’s safely blue 5th Congressional District.
The 31-year-old Boafo, who is the son of immigrants from Ghana, is more than half a century younger than Hoyer, 86. He was the first notable Democrat to kick off a bid following Hoyer’s decision to retire earlier this month, though he’ll likely soon be joined by others.
One all-but-certain candidate is Prince George’s County Councilmember Wala Blegay, who is touting a “major announcement” scheduled for Wednesday. Blegay’s campaign site, though, already lists her as running for Congress. In addition, Del. Nicole Williams, who previously expressed interest in the race, recently filed paperwork with the FEC ahead of a possible bid.
NY-12
A super PAC funded by the AI industry has launched a $1 million ad campaign attacking Democratic Assemblyman Alex Bores over his work for the data-mining firm Palantir Technologies—even though one of the PAC’s top donors was a Palantir founder, Politico reports.
Palantir, which was founded by conservative megadonor Peter Thiel, has faced harsh criticism—including from ex-employees—for selling tools to ICE that help the agency track immigrants. Bores, who was a Palantir employee for four years, says he did not work on the company’s contract with ICE, but the new ad campaign targeting him accuses him of having profited nonetheless.
“He made hundreds of thousands of dollars building and selling the tech for ICE, enabling ICE and powering their deportations while making bank,” says the ad’s narrator. Bores, who is one of many Democrats seeking New York’s open 12th Congressional District, has said he quit Palantir in 2019 after the company renewed its agreement with ICE.
The ads hitting Bores are being run by an outfit called Think Big PAC. As Politico explains, Think Big is an affiliate of Leading the Future, a network of pro-AI super PACs whose major funders include Joe Lonsdale, a prominent Donald Trump supporter who founded Palantir alongside Thiel and three others.
So why would a group linked to Palantir go after a political candidate for working at Palantir? The answer is Bores’ role in spearheading a major AI safety bill last year known as the RAISE Act that requires AI companies to publish detailed safety policies and funds a new office to enforce those rules.
Think Big has claimed that the bill would “crush innovation” and “cost New York jobs,” prompting Bores to retort in an interview with CNBC, “They don’t want there to be any regulation whatsoever.”
WA-04
Republican state Sen. Matt Boehnke has joined the race for Washington’s conservative 4th District, where Donald Trump recently endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney to replace retiring GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse.
Boehnke, though, leveled criticisms at McKinney and another Republican candidate, former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, that don’t often get made—or gain traction—in GOP politics.
“Residents want common sense leadership, they want a statesman that governs by listening to the people and wants to hear the concerns of all,” Boehnke told the Washington State Standard. But of his opponents, he said, “They are looking for clicks on social media. They are running for the wrong reasons and not for the people.”
Washington, D.C. Delegate
Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton’s campaign filed a termination report with the FEC on Sunday, NOTUS reports. Norton, 88, did not initially comment about a move that would formally end her reelection effort.
Norton, 88, repeatedly insisted last year that she would seek a 19th term as Washington, D.C.’s nonvoting advocate in Congress despite serious concerns about her physical and mental ability to perform her duties. Several fellow Democrats, though, launched campaigns for the seat she first won in 1990 by arguing that, while they respected her long service, she’s no longer able to fight for her constituents.
The Democratic primary will take place on June 16 using the city’s new ranked-choice voting rules. Whoever wins the nomination is all but assured victory in this bluest of cities.
Poll Pile
NE-Sen: Lake Research Partners (D): Pete Ricketts (R-inc): 48, Dan Osborn (I): 47. The poll was conducted Dec. 11-17.
Editor’s Note: In the last Morning Digest, we incorrectly identified a poll of the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Minnesota as being sponsored by Peggy Flanagan’s campaign. The poll was conducted for Clear Voice Minnesota, which supports Flanagan.
MN Gubernatorial candidate Chris Madel withdrew this morning from the race, saying "he cannot support the national GOP’s “stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.”
https://bsky.app/profile/jljacobson.bsky.social/post/3mddkdtuyxl2n
In MD-05, Adrian Boafo seems like a great guy, and I think he'd do well in Congress.
Regarding Nicole Williams, however, Wikipedia says that she's opposed to creating a high-speed rail link between Baltimore and D.C. That's a major demerit in my book.