I know you didn’t ask me, but as a Mainer I really thought Collins was going down. Man, was I wrong.
(On another note, this year I will be extremely disappointed if retiring Representative Jared Golden is replaced by Paul "Flintstone" LePage. I often listened interviews with him on NPR when he was governor – and never once have I heard LePage uttering three sentences or more without saying something truly deranged, offensive or bizarre.)
6 years ago I thought because of the election results, Collins was not as popular as she used to be but still an entrenched incumbent.
But the campaign Sara Gideon ran did not raise her profile like Graham Platner. Her campaign was marketed in traditional establishment DSCC fashion but nothing to really make her stand out in contrast to Collins. Just simply negative campaigning and that’s it.
Assuming Platner is the general election nominee, Collins will certainly be put to the test, perhaps more than what she faced with Gideon back in 2020. And Gideon lost the election by single digits.
On the other hand, if Platner ran for the Senate back in 2014 I question whether he would have gotten the same kind of traction in that political environment.
Great news if these polls turn out to be predictive – Collins of Maine and Sullivan of Alaska being replaced by Democrats, while Ossoff defends his Senate seat!
That would put Democrats much closer to retaking the Senate as well as flipping the House. We’ll be much better positioned to trigger the emergency brakes on Project 2025 if Democrats control both chambers of Congress.
Could also be that he doesn't give much of a damn. He's ancient, in declining health, ineligible to run for another term, and a complete narcissist who doesn't have a thought in the world about the state the republican party is in after he's gone.
The reality of our political system is a government can do any number of unpopular things if they do not care about the electoral consequences, and not all of those things will be undone by a future admin. This is a rare (first?) case of an admin not having any concern at all for the other elected officials paying those consequences of the admin's unpopularity.
I know it is an anecdote but here goes anyway: at hoa mtg last night I personally spoke to 6 residents who were trump voting banner wavers in 2024. I know these people well and trust them to be honest with me. Only 1 said he (48 year old) would consider voting for a member of cong who still supports the trump agenda. 5 out of six say: "he makes me sick, I can't stand him, he can't be gone soon enough, etc, etc."
I think we should all stop using "failing health"/declining health to describe trump until he is no longer upright or can not longer speak or control his bodily functions.He has been in declining health since 2016.
All House swing districts in open races or with GOP incumbents are at least Lean Democrat or Likely Democrat depending on the demographics.
NC-SEN race - GOP has no momentum here. Lean/Likely Democrat.
ME-SEN race - Collins can't spin anything. Tossup/Lean Democrat but more to do with Collins as the incumbent amid the national environment the way it is. Also, Collins is not arguing ICE should be eliminated and instead needs to be "improved." Trying too hard to be moderate without having a spine.
IA-SEN race - Ashley Hinson could be a lame duck candidate. She's personally done her own brainwashing to serve Trump as a foot soldier and is standing by ICE. Sounds to me she's Kristi Noem 2.0.
TX-SEN race - Tossup/Lean Democrat right now. I'm taking into account the 2018 midterm results with the Beto vs. Cruz race along with independents, moderates and Hispanic voters likely going to swing hard to the left. And the fact that the state is difficult for Democrats to win statewide in the first place.
AK-SEN race - Lean Democrat. Senator Dan Sullivan right now per his spokesperson, “believes we should gather all the facts and investigate the incident before drawing conclusions" compared to Senator Lisa Murkowski who put out a statement saying,
“this should raise serious questions within the administration about the adequacy of immigration-enforcement training and the instructions officers are given on carrying out their mission. Lawfully carrying a firearm does not justify federal agents killing an American—especially, as video footage appears to show, after the victim had been disarmed.”
Sullivan taking his time to gather the facts sounds like a lame excuse for someone running for re-election if James Comer and Greg Abbott are otherwise reacting differently. I don't see how he can get leverage in the Senate race here.
OH-SEN - Tossup/Lean Democrat. Senator Jon Husted is at least being more decisive than "Senator" Sullivan but while his reaction to the ICE killings is more nuanced, he supports ICE. Sherrod Brown has a major opening here.
FL-SEN - Tossup but I have no idea if this means it could tilt blue or red. Knowing how it's become more difficult to turn out Democrats from the elections in 2020, 2022 and 2024, certainly plenty of the Hispanic and Latino voter turnout will spike up towards Democrats but those demographics alone are not enough.
Of course, if anyone wants to challenge my assessment go right ahead. Like I said, I'm only making my best guess on where things stand.
That said, without a question Democrats have a shot at winning both chambers of Congress.
For the Senate races I'm referring to, it appears that right now the ICE issue is going to remain to be a liability for the GOP incumbents/candidates. They have to be more forceful than they were before or it's going to be a problem for their ability to appeal to voters.
I think this is wildly optimistic, but only time will tell. For TX-Senate, doesn't your rating change depending on which Republican and which Democrat are in the general election?
Yes, you’re probably right. I was going by what could potentially be a shift in voter sentiment but it’s a guess, not for certain. It’s more as if the political environment was already bad for the GOP to begin with that it’s getting worse for them to appeal than what they had to deal with.
I am very cautious about the TX-SEN race but I am taking into account the fact that it’s a very difficult state for Democrats to win. Assuming the seat goes to Team Blue, don’t believe a swing towards the Democratic Party’s side (if say Talarico is the nominee) is going to be significant enough to where they could get anymore than a 1%-2% margin of victory. It could even be a .50% margin of victory.
TX I do not think is heading in the direction of GA but we will see what the midterms results show.
Considering how palatable Trump was for a plurality of voters in 2024, it's really not safe to assume a Democratic tsunami that washes away all those who would be likely Republican winners in a neutral year.
FL and TX are the most difficult ones to predict out of all the states I mentioned simply because of the reasons you are referring to. I would be kidding myself if I were to say those two Senate states would be Lean Democrat or higher simply because that's not how things are with them. There would need to be a massive double digit swing to Team Blue that also improves on the deficit that Democrats had in 2024. That in my view is a difficult task to achieve.
If the FL-SEN and TX-SEN races are tossup or tilt Democrat (probably more plausible for both of them than Lean Democrat now that I think about it), then movement would likely be closer at September or October heading to the general election.
If the FL-SEN election results end up being similar to what happened back in 2018 with Bill Nelson vs. Rick Scott, I would not be surprised irrespective of who wins.
I'll be honest, I don't think most normies, even the average Democratic primary voter, is that dialed in to inside baseball issues like García's retirement shenanigans. He's still broadly liked on the left for opposing Rahm, I'd wager.
I live in IA-3. I don't think this has much impact on other races. Jennifer Konfrost has not been gaining much traction, both in support and fundraising. Not a dynamic candidate, but a competent one for sure. Just think she can see the writing on the wall and doesn't want to run a long campaign to come up well short
I don't know, I could see how a reasonable person might oppose high-speed rail between Baltimore and D.C. I'm generally supportive of high-speed rail and I live in D.C., but I don't know that ridership in that corridor would be high enough to merit the cost. I could be convinced if I saw a study saying that improving the speed would increase ridership by enough or if I'm wrong and there's already high enough ridership on that route, but I wouldn't hold it against her for now. I'd rather focus on fully funding WMATA for now.
I’m an Amtrak rider south of DC and you would be surprised at the long-distance commuters. Plus, BWI is a frequent choice for DC flyers. Both of those factors would weigh in favor of high-speed rail, plus the overcrowded air space.
True, but several years ago there was a plan to connect (or re-connect) Madison and Milwaukee by rail. They are about the same distance apart. I can’t remember offhand if that was high-speed or conventional, but it would have been a boon to the region. It was scrapped for a variety of reasons, all of them bad. I’m no longer in that area, but I believe it may be re-emerging. Where I am now, along the Charlotte to Atlanta corridor, there is also a high-speed rail plan that’s on the shelf from a couple of administrations back. This area is growing faster than any other area of the country. It would make sense to improve all modes of transportation. North Carolina is. I’m not sure about Georgia. Some cities in South Carolina are slowly improving bus service. Rail, not so much. By giving these examples, I’m trying to show that what may look like redundancy now may look like smart planning later.
In California, high speed rail is essential because as a state, it's much harder to even commute around the state from San Francisco to Los Angeles. It takes roughly anywhere from 4 1/2 - 6 1/2 hours to do this depending on traffic. If I wanted to work in Hollywood but be away from the influence of the entertainment environment in raising kids (which is what the Bay Area offers), I wouldn't know how I could make this work. Same goes if I were to find specific industry opportunities in LA or even San Diego that I wouldn't find here.
In CA, cutting down on the time traveled with high speed rail being a factor would also be a boon to cutting down pollution and traffic, especially with how much madness traffic is on the LA highways. BART has a lot of problems right now but for the time being, everyone here has to use it to save money and cut down on gas to get to work. I certainly wouldn't want BART and local bus lines to be the only opportunities to get around and find opportunities.
By contrast, the East Coast is just easier to get around. The time it takes from Baltimore to Arlington is considerably less than from NoCal to SoCal in just an hour by car. If I wanted to live in New Haven, CT where Yale University is and work in NYC, it would be only 1.5 to 1.75 hours by car. Hell, the time it takes to get from NoCal to SoCal is roughly the amount of time it takes from getting from CT to VA (New Haven to Arlington in this case). That's insane!
I think it all boils down to how much one is willing to tolerate in commuting. Bottom line, look at high speed rail as a way to increase the opportunity to live and work.
Fair. I don't live in NYC and cannot comment by experience on driving. I'm mainly referring to an approximate calculation that's given by Google Maps but in all honesty, irrespective of how long it takes, I wouldn't want to do it anyway. I'm more of a public transit guy and prefer using gas much less than I'd like to.
I do recall though making a visit to my friend from Berkeley who moved out to Silver Spring, MD with his close friend from NYU back in 2007 as well as several subsequent visits to VA in and around NoVa. I was amazed at how short of time it took to get around. Never tracked the time but through car, I remember it was much less of a pain than Bay Area traffic.
I suppose the same could be said about rush traffic in general, not specifically DC or even NYC.
Now that I remember, I visited my friend two days after President Obama won his first presidential election back in 2008. Took a flight from San Francisco International Airport to Reagan National Airport but it may have been the early evening. I know it didn’t take hours but it was probably 30-35 minutes.
I support high speed rail, but I don’t think it should be the top priority for Maryland transit, and frankly no one except the rich and people whose travel is subsidized by their workplace would be taking an $80 maglev train over a $34 Amtrak train just to save 30 minutes of time. And Marc is even cheaper, costing less than $10. When we already have multiple frequent, reliable, affordable ways to get between two cities in an hour or less, I don’t know if high speed rail is the move.
This is a state where we should be passing independent redistricting shortly after we win a trifecta. Highly unlikely a trifecta survives a midterm of a Dem President in 2030 and there is a good chance of Republicans getting one (see 2010). An independent commission here takes the threat of Republicans being able to gerrymander here again for another decade (see 2010) off the table.
Voters very rarely reward a party for its accomplishments in a midterm election. This kind of thinking unfortunately is what led to us not properly preparing for 2010 and getting wiped out in that election and allowing Republicans to take control of redistricting in many states and draw themselves into near permanently majorities (see NC or WI where it took us 15 years to undo their gerrymandered maps).
What is the downside of doing things as soon as possible to prepare for the worst?
I will argue that it's a good thing that we're going to be forced to expand our outreach because of the Electoral College math. The Senate map is brutal for us, and we cannot keep living on the edge, playing with the chance of a total wipeout of senate seats in swing states in a bad election cycle. We came very close to that happening in 2024. Having a national party focused on winning more states is probably a good thing in the long run.
Running on what we accomplished is scoffed at. As far as most people are concerned, Biden accomplished nothing. We need to make whatever moves we can quickly, because the public will very likely turn against us quickly.
The commission language could be worded to take this into account, like requiring a as many competitive districts as possible.
Regarding relying on the Wisconsin Supreme Court staying Dem, that’s kind of like using a band aid to cover up a mortal wound. Nobody knows how long Dems will have a majority there. Unexpected things can happen over the next six years (folks could unexpectedly retire, pass away, etc). Also, SCOTUS could start getting involved in state SC decisions to benefit Republicans. You just don’t know. Bottom line, PA and WI are states that Dems should be working on getting commissions enacted.
Commissions are a hell of a lot of lot better than Republicans being able to gerrymander themselves into near permanent majorities.
The gerrymandering is super unpopular here in WI, and a fair solution would have a lot of popular support. I agree that the devil is in the details of an independent commission, but even an incremental improvement that *can pass* is better than holding out for perfection that goes nowhere.
I think if WI Ds win back the trifecta, they need to have the commission amendment worded similarly to Michigan’s or even the OH one that was sabotaged by Rs in 2024.
Yeah that’s what I was thinking. They should do it here and in PA if they get a trifecta there (state senate will be very tough, but maybe possible in 2028 if they can pick up a seat there this year).
We should note that any independent commission probably needs to be codified in the state constitution for it to last. Like Virginia, I believe that would require it passing the legislature in two consecutive sessions.
Unfortunately, I think the earliest it could get on the ballot is 2029. It seems two consecutive legislative sessions are required, so that would be 2027-2028 and 2028-2029. But they might be able to put it on the 2029 spring general elections for municipalities and judges (although, it might be risky, as no WI SCOTUS race would be on the ballot to drive up turnout).
Maryland Dems are also proposing sending the map to the ballot as a constitutional amendment this fall. This seems like a way to bypass legal challenges but also tells me they have low confidence in courts upholding the map for 2026.
They should do all of the above. They can also file bills to curtail the judiciary’s power on it. They have safe supermajorities, might as well use them.
"Bill of Wrongs" – Powerful post by Timothy Snyder
Here is a small taste of Snyder’s cutting satire. I encourage you to read the whole piece:
"1. Congress shall make no law denying the Cult of all-wise Trump, or limiting the exercise thereof; or abridging His sole Freedom to define Truth, which includes his Self-Given Power to defraud, slander, and censor…"
MN Gubernatorial candidate Chris Madel withdrew this morning from the race, saying "he cannot support the national GOP’s “stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.”
Everyone is entitled to competent representation in the judicial system and I do not like this trend in recent years for attacking lawyers or law firms for who they represent. It is not a healthy trend.
Both are also in competitive primaries against establishment-backed candidates. I think the OP was asking if he's doing anything to help in generals as opposed to playing in primaries.
It's a little difficult to believe that Collins was ever at a - 30 approval, so not sure how much I believe that one poll.
This is where the ME-SEN race is a test as to the strength of Collins' appeal statewide as an incumbent.
However, I don't believe she has the ability to get the same vote margins like she used to pre-2020.
What did you believe 6 years ago?
I know you didn’t ask me, but as a Mainer I really thought Collins was going down. Man, was I wrong.
(On another note, this year I will be extremely disappointed if retiring Representative Jared Golden is replaced by Paul "Flintstone" LePage. I often listened interviews with him on NPR when he was governor – and never once have I heard LePage uttering three sentences or more without saying something truly deranged, offensive or bizarre.)
I hadn't heard him called Flintstone before.
It’s how my neighbor, a university lecturer at U.Maine, always referred to him. Not sure how widespread this coinage is, but I’ve found it fitting.
6 years ago I thought because of the election results, Collins was not as popular as she used to be but still an entrenched incumbent.
But the campaign Sara Gideon ran did not raise her profile like Graham Platner. Her campaign was marketed in traditional establishment DSCC fashion but nothing to really make her stand out in contrast to Collins. Just simply negative campaigning and that’s it.
Assuming Platner is the general election nominee, Collins will certainly be put to the test, perhaps more than what she faced with Gideon back in 2020. And Gideon lost the election by single digits.
On the other hand, if Platner ran for the Senate back in 2014 I question whether he would have gotten the same kind of traction in that political environment.
Who did you think was going to win and by what margin?
Collins but by roughly 5 or so % points. She ended up winning re-election by 8.59% points.
Suffice to say, I underestimated how difficult it was to unseat Collins at the time.
Ouch. Sullivan is not looking good at all heading to re-election. His wooden response to the ICE shootings isn't helping him.
Great news if these polls turn out to be predictive – Collins of Maine and Sullivan of Alaska being replaced by Democrats, while Ossoff defends his Senate seat!
That would put Democrats much closer to retaking the Senate as well as flipping the House. We’ll be much better positioned to trigger the emergency brakes on Project 2025 if Democrats control both chambers of Congress.
Spectacularly remarkable misread of the mood of the American electorate
Could also be that he doesn't give much of a damn. He's ancient, in declining health, ineligible to run for another term, and a complete narcissist who doesn't have a thought in the world about the state the republican party is in after he's gone.
The reality of our political system is a government can do any number of unpopular things if they do not care about the electoral consequences, and not all of those things will be undone by a future admin. This is a rare (first?) case of an admin not having any concern at all for the other elected officials paying those consequences of the admin's unpopularity.
Trump’s refusal to brook even a whisker of critical feedback from Republicans is a Republican problem in the end
I know it is an anecdote but here goes anyway: at hoa mtg last night I personally spoke to 6 residents who were trump voting banner wavers in 2024. I know these people well and trust them to be honest with me. Only 1 said he (48 year old) would consider voting for a member of cong who still supports the trump agenda. 5 out of six say: "he makes me sick, I can't stand him, he can't be gone soon enough, etc, etc."
I think we should all stop using "failing health"/declining health to describe trump until he is no longer upright or can not longer speak or control his bodily functions.He has been in declining health since 2016.
can he really be only -21/-22 on civil rights and democracy? I strongly doubt it!!
Bear in mind that a significant portion of this polling sample (not just MAGA) has absolutely no clue what civil rights and democracy actually mean.
Border Security up +2 for the GOP sounds to me like it's barely even a movement.
Opposition to Biden’s border asylum policy =\= letting Stephen Miller do whatever the hell he wants, it turns out
My best guess:
All House swing districts in open races or with GOP incumbents are at least Lean Democrat or Likely Democrat depending on the demographics.
NC-SEN race - GOP has no momentum here. Lean/Likely Democrat.
ME-SEN race - Collins can't spin anything. Tossup/Lean Democrat but more to do with Collins as the incumbent amid the national environment the way it is. Also, Collins is not arguing ICE should be eliminated and instead needs to be "improved." Trying too hard to be moderate without having a spine.
IA-SEN race - Ashley Hinson could be a lame duck candidate. She's personally done her own brainwashing to serve Trump as a foot soldier and is standing by ICE. Sounds to me she's Kristi Noem 2.0.
TX-SEN race - Tossup/Lean Democrat right now. I'm taking into account the 2018 midterm results with the Beto vs. Cruz race along with independents, moderates and Hispanic voters likely going to swing hard to the left. And the fact that the state is difficult for Democrats to win statewide in the first place.
AK-SEN race - Lean Democrat. Senator Dan Sullivan right now per his spokesperson, “believes we should gather all the facts and investigate the incident before drawing conclusions" compared to Senator Lisa Murkowski who put out a statement saying,
“this should raise serious questions within the administration about the adequacy of immigration-enforcement training and the instructions officers are given on carrying out their mission. Lawfully carrying a firearm does not justify federal agents killing an American—especially, as video footage appears to show, after the victim had been disarmed.”
Sullivan taking his time to gather the facts sounds like a lame excuse for someone running for re-election if James Comer and Greg Abbott are otherwise reacting differently. I don't see how he can get leverage in the Senate race here.
OH-SEN - Tossup/Lean Democrat. Senator Jon Husted is at least being more decisive than "Senator" Sullivan but while his reaction to the ICE killings is more nuanced, he supports ICE. Sherrod Brown has a major opening here.
FL-SEN - Tossup but I have no idea if this means it could tilt blue or red. Knowing how it's become more difficult to turn out Democrats from the elections in 2020, 2022 and 2024, certainly plenty of the Hispanic and Latino voter turnout will spike up towards Democrats but those demographics alone are not enough.
Of course, if anyone wants to challenge my assessment go right ahead. Like I said, I'm only making my best guess on where things stand.
That said, without a question Democrats have a shot at winning both chambers of Congress.
https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/01/26/anchorage-protestors-gather-remember-minnesota-man-killed-by-immigration-officials-minneapolis-ice-crackdown-continues/
https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/01/26/anchorage-protestors-gather-remember-minnesota-man-killed-by-immigration-officials-minneapolis-ice-crackdown-continues/
https://www.collins.senate.gov/newsroom/senator-collins-statement-on-ice-operations-in-maine
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/09/ice-shooting-minneapolis-ashley-hinson-iowa/88100709007/
Thanks!
For the Senate races I'm referring to, it appears that right now the ICE issue is going to remain to be a liability for the GOP incumbents/candidates. They have to be more forceful than they were before or it's going to be a problem for their ability to appeal to voters.
I think this is wildly optimistic, but only time will tell. For TX-Senate, doesn't your rating change depending on which Republican and which Democrat are in the general election?
Yes, you’re probably right. I was going by what could potentially be a shift in voter sentiment but it’s a guess, not for certain. It’s more as if the political environment was already bad for the GOP to begin with that it’s getting worse for them to appeal than what they had to deal with.
I am very cautious about the TX-SEN race but I am taking into account the fact that it’s a very difficult state for Democrats to win. Assuming the seat goes to Team Blue, don’t believe a swing towards the Democratic Party’s side (if say Talarico is the nominee) is going to be significant enough to where they could get anymore than a 1%-2% margin of victory. It could even be a .50% margin of victory.
TX I do not think is heading in the direction of GA but we will see what the midterms results show.
Considering how palatable Trump was for a plurality of voters in 2024, it's really not safe to assume a Democratic tsunami that washes away all those who would be likely Republican winners in a neutral year.
FL and TX are the most difficult ones to predict out of all the states I mentioned simply because of the reasons you are referring to. I would be kidding myself if I were to say those two Senate states would be Lean Democrat or higher simply because that's not how things are with them. There would need to be a massive double digit swing to Team Blue that also improves on the deficit that Democrats had in 2024. That in my view is a difficult task to achieve.
If the FL-SEN and TX-SEN races are tossup or tilt Democrat (probably more plausible for both of them than Lean Democrat now that I think about it), then movement would likely be closer at September or October heading to the general election.
If the FL-SEN election results end up being similar to what happened back in 2018 with Bill Nelson vs. Rick Scott, I would not be surprised irrespective of who wins.
Happened to my own mom just a few years ago. She should be fine, it just takes a few months to recover from the surgery.
I'll be honest, I don't think most normies, even the average Democratic primary voter, is that dialed in to inside baseball issues like García's retirement shenanigans. He's still broadly liked on the left for opposing Rahm, I'd wager.
It's certainly one of the lesser sins of IL politics. Remember we had a Governor try to sell a Senate seat.
in fact i still love him for giving rahm a run for his money, so I would agree
I'm still pissed about Garcia's antics, but I do think he did good work in Congress and politics.
Sarah Trone Garriott seems like a formidable candidate. Should be good. Apparently 2024 nominee Lanon Baccam has filed too.
I live in IA-3. I don't think this has much impact on other races. Jennifer Konfrost has not been gaining much traction, both in support and fundraising. Not a dynamic candidate, but a competent one for sure. Just think she can see the writing on the wall and doesn't want to run a long campaign to come up well short
Iowa has a lot of good candidates this cycle. Hope it can shape up to be even better than 2018 for you guys.
Wait, are you talking about the IA-01 Congressional Race or are you talking about the IA Auditor race?
You said IA-1 so that's why I'm asking. IA-01 I believe has three House candidates running on the Democratic Party side heading to the primary.
No problem. I got the impression you were talking about the auditor's race as you were citing that related article specifically.
IA-1 and auditor - Taylor Wettach switched from the former to the latter
Got it. Thanks for clarifying.
Agreed, any Dem that's anti-public transit is a no-go for me.
I don't know, I could see how a reasonable person might oppose high-speed rail between Baltimore and D.C. I'm generally supportive of high-speed rail and I live in D.C., but I don't know that ridership in that corridor would be high enough to merit the cost. I could be convinced if I saw a study saying that improving the speed would increase ridership by enough or if I'm wrong and there's already high enough ridership on that route, but I wouldn't hold it against her for now. I'd rather focus on fully funding WMATA for now.
I’m an Amtrak rider south of DC and you would be surprised at the long-distance commuters. Plus, BWI is a frequent choice for DC flyers. Both of those factors would weigh in favor of high-speed rail, plus the overcrowded air space.
Maybe I'm mistaken but isn't it just about an hour and 15 minutes between the two by train? That's not particularly long distance.
Times two, that’s a lot out of a day.
You normally hear about high speed being between distance cities, not two that close together.
True, but several years ago there was a plan to connect (or re-connect) Madison and Milwaukee by rail. They are about the same distance apart. I can’t remember offhand if that was high-speed or conventional, but it would have been a boon to the region. It was scrapped for a variety of reasons, all of them bad. I’m no longer in that area, but I believe it may be re-emerging. Where I am now, along the Charlotte to Atlanta corridor, there is also a high-speed rail plan that’s on the shelf from a couple of administrations back. This area is growing faster than any other area of the country. It would make sense to improve all modes of transportation. North Carolina is. I’m not sure about Georgia. Some cities in South Carolina are slowly improving bus service. Rail, not so much. By giving these examples, I’m trying to show that what may look like redundancy now may look like smart planning later.
In California, high speed rail is essential because as a state, it's much harder to even commute around the state from San Francisco to Los Angeles. It takes roughly anywhere from 4 1/2 - 6 1/2 hours to do this depending on traffic. If I wanted to work in Hollywood but be away from the influence of the entertainment environment in raising kids (which is what the Bay Area offers), I wouldn't know how I could make this work. Same goes if I were to find specific industry opportunities in LA or even San Diego that I wouldn't find here.
In CA, cutting down on the time traveled with high speed rail being a factor would also be a boon to cutting down pollution and traffic, especially with how much madness traffic is on the LA highways. BART has a lot of problems right now but for the time being, everyone here has to use it to save money and cut down on gas to get to work. I certainly wouldn't want BART and local bus lines to be the only opportunities to get around and find opportunities.
By contrast, the East Coast is just easier to get around. The time it takes from Baltimore to Arlington is considerably less than from NoCal to SoCal in just an hour by car. If I wanted to live in New Haven, CT where Yale University is and work in NYC, it would be only 1.5 to 1.75 hours by car. Hell, the time it takes to get from NoCal to SoCal is roughly the amount of time it takes from getting from CT to VA (New Haven to Arlington in this case). That's insane!
I think it all boils down to how much one is willing to tolerate in commuting. Bottom line, look at high speed rail as a way to increase the opportunity to live and work.
I don't think you could count on traffic working for you between New York and New Haven. Better to take Metro North.
Fair. I don't live in NYC and cannot comment by experience on driving. I'm mainly referring to an approximate calculation that's given by Google Maps but in all honesty, irrespective of how long it takes, I wouldn't want to do it anyway. I'm more of a public transit guy and prefer using gas much less than I'd like to.
I do recall though making a visit to my friend from Berkeley who moved out to Silver Spring, MD with his close friend from NYU back in 2007 as well as several subsequent visits to VA in and around NoVa. I was amazed at how short of time it took to get around. Never tracked the time but through car, I remember it was much less of a pain than Bay Area traffic.
DC traffic can be horrible, though. I'm guessing that wasn't during rush hour.
I suppose the same could be said about rush traffic in general, not specifically DC or even NYC.
Now that I remember, I visited my friend two days after President Obama won his first presidential election back in 2008. Took a flight from San Francisco International Airport to Reagan National Airport but it may have been the early evening. I know it didn’t take hours but it was probably 30-35 minutes.
Boafo's a little rough on that one issue but so are most members.
The forbidden one.
I've seen people mention "the issue" and even some specific facets and elements of it before. I think I'll be fine.
Only if no-one wants to debate that it's "rough".
Considering Hoyer was endorsed by AIPAC and DMFI prior to exiting the race, it's not a stretch that anyone he'd endorse would be aligned that way.
He was described as the leader of AIPAC Dems by the New York Times.
You mean Boafo?
You can just say that he's endorsed by AIPAC rather than saying if he's smooth or rough.
I support high speed rail, but I don’t think it should be the top priority for Maryland transit, and frankly no one except the rich and people whose travel is subsidized by their workplace would be taking an $80 maglev train over a $34 Amtrak train just to save 30 minutes of time. And Marc is even cheaper, costing less than $10. When we already have multiple frequent, reliable, affordable ways to get between two cities in an hour or less, I don’t know if high speed rail is the move.
This is a state where we should be passing independent redistricting shortly after we win a trifecta. Highly unlikely a trifecta survives a midterm of a Dem President in 2030 and there is a good chance of Republicans getting one (see 2010). An independent commission here takes the threat of Republicans being able to gerrymander here again for another decade (see 2010) off the table.
Voters very rarely reward a party for its accomplishments in a midterm election. This kind of thinking unfortunately is what led to us not properly preparing for 2010 and getting wiped out in that election and allowing Republicans to take control of redistricting in many states and draw themselves into near permanently majorities (see NC or WI where it took us 15 years to undo their gerrymandered maps).
What is the downside of doing things as soon as possible to prepare for the worst?
I will argue that it's a good thing that we're going to be forced to expand our outreach because of the Electoral College math. The Senate map is brutal for us, and we cannot keep living on the edge, playing with the chance of a total wipeout of senate seats in swing states in a bad election cycle. We came very close to that happening in 2024. Having a national party focused on winning more states is probably a good thing in the long run.
Running on what we accomplished is scoffed at. As far as most people are concerned, Biden accomplished nothing. We need to make whatever moves we can quickly, because the public will very likely turn against us quickly.
The commission language could be worded to take this into account, like requiring a as many competitive districts as possible.
Regarding relying on the Wisconsin Supreme Court staying Dem, that’s kind of like using a band aid to cover up a mortal wound. Nobody knows how long Dems will have a majority there. Unexpected things can happen over the next six years (folks could unexpectedly retire, pass away, etc). Also, SCOTUS could start getting involved in state SC decisions to benefit Republicans. You just don’t know. Bottom line, PA and WI are states that Dems should be working on getting commissions enacted.
Commissions are a hell of a lot of lot better than Republicans being able to gerrymander themselves into near permanent majorities.
The gerrymandering is super unpopular here in WI, and a fair solution would have a lot of popular support. I agree that the devil is in the details of an independent commission, but even an incremental improvement that *can pass* is better than holding out for perfection that goes nowhere.
I think if WI Ds win back the trifecta, they need to have the commission amendment worded similarly to Michigan’s or even the OH one that was sabotaged by Rs in 2024.
Yeah that’s what I was thinking. They should do it here and in PA if they get a trifecta there (state senate will be very tough, but maybe possible in 2028 if they can pick up a seat there this year).
We should note that any independent commission probably needs to be codified in the state constitution for it to last. Like Virginia, I believe that would require it passing the legislature in two consecutive sessions.
In WI and PA, I believe they can get it on the ballot this way. They can pass it in 2027 and 2028 and get it on the ballot in 2028.
Unfortunately, I think the earliest it could get on the ballot is 2029. It seems two consecutive legislative sessions are required, so that would be 2027-2028 and 2028-2029. But they might be able to put it on the 2029 spring general elections for municipalities and judges (although, it might be risky, as no WI SCOTUS race would be on the ballot to drive up turnout).
PA does not have a ballot initiative process.
Something can be put on the ballot by the legislature.
Keep winning WISC elections and you dont need to worry. Go for the gerrymander if you have a trifecta and if you dont courts institute a fair map.
https://marylandmatters.org/2026/01/23/house-wastes-no-time-taking-up-congressional-redistricting-bill/
Maryland Dems are also proposing sending the map to the ballot as a constitutional amendment this fall. This seems like a way to bypass legal challenges but also tells me they have low confidence in courts upholding the map for 2026.
Maryland constitutional amendments can only be voted on in November general elections in even years.
well, let's hope the Senate's opposition to redistricting doesn't extend to allowing a referendum as well.
They should do all of the above. They can also file bills to curtail the judiciary’s power on it. They have safe supermajorities, might as well use them.
This was very interesting.
"Bill of Wrongs" – Powerful post by Timothy Snyder
Here is a small taste of Snyder’s cutting satire. I encourage you to read the whole piece:
"1. Congress shall make no law denying the Cult of all-wise Trump, or limiting the exercise thereof; or abridging His sole Freedom to define Truth, which includes his Self-Given Power to defraud, slander, and censor…"
https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-bill-of-wrongs
MN Gubernatorial candidate Chris Madel withdrew this morning from the race, saying "he cannot support the national GOP’s “stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.”
https://bsky.app/profile/jljacobson.bsky.social/post/3mddkdtuyxl2n
https://www.kare11.com/article/news/local/ice-in-minnesota/republican-candidate-for-mn-governor-is-providing-legal-counsel-to-ice-agent/89-221ac923-3f46-4afc-a62a-80df65bcc9f6
Despite this, he's the lawyer for Jonathan Ross, the man who killed Renee Good.
He can't support it unless it makes him money
John Adams was the lawyer for the British soldiers who committed the Boston Massacre.
I've heard people say this. Was he being "principled" in both instances? Or did he have a "road to Damascus" moment after the second killing?
Unlike with John Adams, I don't think it would be hard for the ICE agent to find competent representation. Madel is not his savior.
Everyone is entitled to competent representation in the judicial system and I do not like this trend in recent years for attacking lawyers or law firms for who they represent. It is not a healthy trend.
Was not my intent. Just noting how his words may be perceived as hypocritical or present a conflict of interest.
Chris Madel’s exit from from the Minnesota governor’s race is a big damn deal – but his stated reasons for exiting constitute a political earthquake!
MA-8:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5706046-david-hogg-backs-patrick-roath/
David Hogg's PAC is backing Pat Roath, the attorney/Deval Patrick alum who is challenging Stephen Lynch in the primary.
I'd be voting for Roath if I lived there, too. Lynch isn't very good.
Who else is Hogg’s PAC backing? Is he stepping up to defeat any incumbent Republicans?
Yes, he’s backing Randy Villegas for David Valadao’s seat.
https://leaderswedeserve.com/2026-candidates/
These are Hogg's candidates. As Finnley said, Villegas is taking on David Valadao, and in addition Graham Platner is taking on Susan Collins.
Both are also in competitive primaries against establishment-backed candidates. I think the OP was asking if he's doing anything to help in generals as opposed to playing in primaries.
I’d assume the answer would be yes. I don’t think they’d bail on their candidate once they win the primary.
MI-Gov:
https://www.mlive.com/politics/2026/01/former-presidential-candidate-perry-johnson-joins-governors-race-for-a-second-time.html
Businessman Perry Johnson is in as a Republican.
Time to place 5th in the primary
Bold assumption he can make the ballot
Even Greg Abbott is like “whoa we need to do an investigation and deescalate ICE activity in MN.”
For a MAGA Republican to say that, says that it’s affecting his internal poll numbers.
Boy, if Abbott could be unseated as Governor, that would be a real tidal wave the GOP hasn't faced in a LONG time.