I honestly don't think it will be much of a primary. Foushee has been a solid progressive and hasn't done anything to upset Democrats. I suspect she wins easily.
Foushee wrote the same long-winded statement that other elected Democrats spewed out in the wake of the Pretti murder by ICE. Allam, by comparison, wrote a more direct, emotional and blistering message.
If there's potential for a primary upset (apart from the state legislative ones), it's this one.
Your response actually leads me to a question of my own I have.
Given all that's happened with ICE, how likely is it to become an issue in Dem primaries? In the general I suspect it will be a big deal, but I'm curious to see if it will also affect primaries.
I think the 7 votes for the DHS bill might be the easiest targets. Golden is retiring and filing deadlines has passed in NC and TX, but Suozzi Gillen and MGP could be vulnerable. And unlike the other four, their seats aren't that red.
I think it could be a salient issue in deep blue Congressional districts, one that moderate incumbents like Foushee can fumble.
It's not like NC-4 is a purple or lean red district. And we do have a sizeable and diverse immigrant population here in Durham and Orange Counties. If 2026 is the year of the Democratic Tea Party movement, Allam is one such candidate for an upset.
imo it'll be a good test to see where the base is at. Foushee has been a generally progressive backbencher and she's cut ties with some of her biggest 2022 donors/supporters, which could cut both ways for her. Allam has been running a strong campaign so far w good fundraising numbers. Age & style are probs the biggest differences between the two.
She probably should have voted for the GENIUS act so that Big crypto would support her. But Jeffries put her on the AI panel along with Gottheimer so she may still benefit from outside spending through the new AI super PAC which is currently attacking Alex Bores.
Allam has two things going in her favor: Generational change and the new district is more diverse and has relatively less African Americans. She also has backing from progressive organizations like Justice Dems and Leader We Deserve as well. Nationally, she is mostly known for her advocacy on that forbidden topic.
LOL at Justice Dems. I remember reading an analysis done on the success rate of interest groups' endorsements in Democratic primaries, and Justice Dems had literally the lowest success rate of any interest group in their endorsements.
So that just makes me believe even more that Allam will lose. The Democrats who beat incumbents in primaries will be ones who bring together a broad ideological coalition in support of them (which is what Ayanna Pressley did in 2018), or where the incumbent is out of step with the racial demographics of the district (which AOC benefited from in 2018). The latter doesn't apply here, and Allam isn't currently attempting to do the former.
Justice Dems don’t try to maintain a high K/D ratio. They back many candidates and usually focus their resources on a few with the best chances of success, mostly in urban districts.
Allam lost by only 8 points in a more demographically unfavorable district, with a third candidate splitting the vote, in a bad year for progressives with low anti-establishment energy (2022).
Foushee shouldn’t have repudiated crypto and AIPAC interests—that was a huge mistake.
Since it neither prevented Allam from launching a primary nor does she have their financial muscle now. She was very weak at fundraising unlike Allam in the 2022 primary and was bailed out by them. This was one of the very rare single digit races where I'd wager that PACs had a huge impact.
Do note that the Justice Dems in 2018 were quite different than now — they backed a lot more candidates at first and only later were more targeted. I think that an analysis of their success rate should consider that.
Florida gubernatorial candidate David Jolly's speech on the murders in Minnesota went viral across social media platforms. Meanwhile, Jerry Demings has been a dud, has a non-existent social media game and doesn't even have a launch video. Both of them are neck to neck in polls.
I actually believe his ideological change since he has moved to the left gradually over the course of 10 years and is endorsed by Gwen Graham. He was a moderate Republican appalled by Trump and his rhetoric on Muslims at first.
Meanwhile, Georgia's Geoff Duncan called himself a conservative Reagan Republican as late as the 2024 presidential election and was talking about retaking the control of his party.
When it was first reported that David Jolly was running in the gubernatorial race, I had thought he would be another Charlie Crist who like Jolly became a Democrat after originally being a long-time Republican (Crist for a brief time was an Independent).
He might be able to be a much different candidate than we'd expect. Remains to be seen.
I will give David Jolly credit for one thing when he served in the House - He actually tried to reform campaign finance laws as a result of being outraged in what he saw in members of Congress spending a lot of time every day on the phone raising money for donors. As a result of Jolly's efforts, almost no Democrat or Republican in the House signed on.
Jolly would have worked well with Russ Feingold and John McCain if they were both still in the Senate at the time.
As far as the gubernatorial race, I am being cautious about the direction it could go in this early but clearly it seems Jolly has fire in his belly.
Since someone asked about the NC race, I wanted to ask about the CA-11 race too, the district currently held by Pelosi.
I'm curious about the Chakrabarti vs. Chan vs. Wiener primary. I haven't seen much reporting on it here, but there seems to be significant social media and betting hype (note: I don't support betting), especially given that the district sits at the heart of Silicon Valley.
My concern is the possibilty of Chakrabarti and Chan splitting the left vote and allowing Wiener (the relative moderate) to win.
That being said, San Francisco has swung right in recent years (the DA recall, the school board recall, Gordon Mar and Dean Preston losing their primaries, Joel Engardio's recall for supporting a park being constructed on a highway, Daniel Lurie being a bit of a centrist, etc.) so Wiener was probably favored anyway. (Although Connie Chan survived re-election and Jackie Fielder and Chyanne Chen won their races so I don't know.)
I think it's gonna be Chakrabarti vs. Wiener since the latter has the institutional lane to himself and the former has so much money that he could flood the left lane with cash
I'm heard about Chakrabarti for his climate policy advocacy and his role in helping launch the modern progressive movement, and about Wiener for his leadership on California’s permitting reforms and broader housing agenda. But I know far less about Chan. Most of what I’ve encountered portrays her as a NIMBY figure who has had a long-running and often contentious relationship with Wiener and other YIMBYs.
I thought that too but maybe she wants to raise her name ID in case Trump gets the votes and she is gerrymandered out of the House in the next session.
If she over performed statewide as much as she did in her district she would still lose by 9. So maybe she makes it a single digit race. Johnson county dems love her.
LA-5: State Rep. Dixon McMakin is in, which probably means former Rep. Garret Graves won't run, considering McMakin's announcement hinged on his decision.
Landry has a candidate in this race named Misti Cordell, who he appointed to the Board of Regents. Not sure who the anti-Landry candidate will be. Maybe this guy.
This isn't California. If Democrats are given the green light by the Supreme Court, and they go for a 9-1 map, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that they'd lose the referendum.
In Massachusetts, where Maura Healey is also strongly favored to win a second term, Michael Minogue and Mike Kennealy have poured millions of their own dollars into their campaigns.
Didn't Healey do something that pissed people off? I feel like I remember there was some discontent against her, but for the life of me I cannot remember why.
She nominated her ex-girlfriend for a judgeship, which drew ire from state Republicans, and also had a staffer charged for cocaine and illegal gun trafficking.
Oh no I was under no delusion that the GOP stood a sliver of a chance in MA, I was just trying to figure out why they're fundraising better than Moore's opponents.
Ed Hale appears to get the most press coverage. Moore shouldn't have any problem. I think the majority of Maryland Republicans were hoping for a Larry Hogan comeback.
Barry Bot?
Absolutely knock this off, both of you.
Reported and flagged for idiocy and trolling.
Yeah, because standing up to Trump and incurring his wrath is so slimy.....please.
Oof. Nancy Mace doesn't seem to be doing too well.
Did something happen? Or just in general
The poll in the digest
:facepalm: I don't know how I missed that lol
Also in general, lol
Alan Wilson sucks but he’d be doing us a favor if he takes out Mace AND Norman in one primary
Isn't he the "You lie!" guy?
That’s Joe Wilson - his dad
Can you write about NC 4? Curious about the allam vs foushee primary
I honestly don't think it will be much of a primary. Foushee has been a solid progressive and hasn't done anything to upset Democrats. I suspect she wins easily.
Foushee wrote the same long-winded statement that other elected Democrats spewed out in the wake of the Pretti murder by ICE. Allam, by comparison, wrote a more direct, emotional and blistering message.
If there's potential for a primary upset (apart from the state legislative ones), it's this one.
Your response actually leads me to a question of my own I have.
Given all that's happened with ICE, how likely is it to become an issue in Dem primaries? In the general I suspect it will be a big deal, but I'm curious to see if it will also affect primaries.
It will, but I don't think Foushee is seen as one of the more ICE-friendly Democrats.
I meant more in a general sense, but thanks.
I think the 7 votes for the DHS bill might be the easiest targets. Golden is retiring and filing deadlines has passed in NC and TX, but Suozzi Gillen and MGP could be vulnerable. And unlike the other four, their seats aren't that red.
I think it could be a salient issue in deep blue Congressional districts, one that moderate incumbents like Foushee can fumble.
It's not like NC-4 is a purple or lean red district. And we do have a sizeable and diverse immigrant population here in Durham and Orange Counties. If 2026 is the year of the Democratic Tea Party movement, Allam is one such candidate for an upset.
imo it'll be a good test to see where the base is at. Foushee has been a generally progressive backbencher and she's cut ties with some of her biggest 2022 donors/supporters, which could cut both ways for her. Allam has been running a strong campaign so far w good fundraising numbers. Age & style are probs the biggest differences between the two.
She probably should have voted for the GENIUS act so that Big crypto would support her. But Jeffries put her on the AI panel along with Gottheimer so she may still benefit from outside spending through the new AI super PAC which is currently attacking Alex Bores.
Allam has two things going in her favor: Generational change and the new district is more diverse and has relatively less African Americans. She also has backing from progressive organizations like Justice Dems and Leader We Deserve as well. Nationally, she is mostly known for her advocacy on that forbidden topic.
LOL at Justice Dems. I remember reading an analysis done on the success rate of interest groups' endorsements in Democratic primaries, and Justice Dems had literally the lowest success rate of any interest group in their endorsements.
So that just makes me believe even more that Allam will lose. The Democrats who beat incumbents in primaries will be ones who bring together a broad ideological coalition in support of them (which is what Ayanna Pressley did in 2018), or where the incumbent is out of step with the racial demographics of the district (which AOC benefited from in 2018). The latter doesn't apply here, and Allam isn't currently attempting to do the former.
Justice Dems don’t try to maintain a high K/D ratio. They back many candidates and usually focus their resources on a few with the best chances of success, mostly in urban districts.
Allam lost by only 8 points in a more demographically unfavorable district, with a third candidate splitting the vote, in a bad year for progressives with low anti-establishment energy (2022).
Foushee shouldn’t have repudiated crypto and AIPAC interests—that was a huge mistake.
Why would that have been a huge mistake?
Since it neither prevented Allam from launching a primary nor does she have their financial muscle now. She was very weak at fundraising unlike Allam in the 2022 primary and was bailed out by them. This was one of the very rare single digit races where I'd wager that PACs had a huge impact.
Do note that the Justice Dems in 2018 were quite different than now — they backed a lot more candidates at first and only later were more targeted. I think that an analysis of their success rate should consider that.
It also seems like they're being even more selective this cycle, with most of their candidates having a background in elected office.
We wrote about it last month when Allam announced, and it will definitely come up again! https://www.the-downballot.com/i/181381292/nc-04
https://x.com/davidjollyfl/status/2015617494724096157?s=20
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2026/01/27/minnesota-matters-shooting-enters-florida-governors-race-00748781
Florida gubernatorial candidate David Jolly's speech on the murders in Minnesota went viral across social media platforms. Meanwhile, Jerry Demings has been a dud, has a non-existent social media game and doesn't even have a launch video. Both of them are neck to neck in polls.
Maybe this party switch gambit is actually genuine.
I actually believe his ideological change since he has moved to the left gradually over the course of 10 years and is endorsed by Gwen Graham. He was a moderate Republican appalled by Trump and his rhetoric on Muslims at first.
Meanwhile, Georgia's Geoff Duncan called himself a conservative Reagan Republican as late as the 2024 presidential election and was talking about retaking the control of his party.
Why would it be anything else? It's not like an opportunist would change from Republican to Democratic in -Florida-.
Easier to get a nomination?
But way easier to lose in the general as well.
Yeah, but you have to be in it to win it.
To quote Kurt Vonnegut, "you are who you pretend to be, so we must be careful about who we pretend to be."
When it was first reported that David Jolly was running in the gubernatorial race, I had thought he would be another Charlie Crist who like Jolly became a Democrat after originally being a long-time Republican (Crist for a brief time was an Independent).
He might be able to be a much different candidate than we'd expect. Remains to be seen.
I will give David Jolly credit for one thing when he served in the House - He actually tried to reform campaign finance laws as a result of being outraged in what he saw in members of Congress spending a lot of time every day on the phone raising money for donors. As a result of Jolly's efforts, almost no Democrat or Republican in the House signed on.
Jolly would have worked well with Russ Feingold and John McCain if they were both still in the Senate at the time.
As far as the gubernatorial race, I am being cautious about the direction it could go in this early but clearly it seems Jolly has fire in his belly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnyalqKNRwc
Since someone asked about the NC race, I wanted to ask about the CA-11 race too, the district currently held by Pelosi.
I'm curious about the Chakrabarti vs. Chan vs. Wiener primary. I haven't seen much reporting on it here, but there seems to be significant social media and betting hype (note: I don't support betting), especially given that the district sits at the heart of Silicon Valley.
My concern is the possibilty of Chakrabarti and Chan splitting the left vote and allowing Wiener (the relative moderate) to win.
That being said, San Francisco has swung right in recent years (the DA recall, the school board recall, Gordon Mar and Dean Preston losing their primaries, Joel Engardio's recall for supporting a park being constructed on a highway, Daniel Lurie being a bit of a centrist, etc.) so Wiener was probably favored anyway. (Although Connie Chan survived re-election and Jackie Fielder and Chyanne Chen won their races so I don't know.)
California has top two primaries. Saikat backed the challenge against Preston. Preston supporting left-NIMBYs will likely gravitate towards Chan.
the "relative" in "relative moderate" is doing a lot of work there because Wiener would be firmly on the left side of caucus.
100% true but then again, it's SF.
I think it's gonna be Chakrabarti vs. Wiener since the latter has the institutional lane to himself and the former has so much money that he could flood the left lane with cash
I'm heard about Chakrabarti for his climate policy advocacy and his role in helping launch the modern progressive movement, and about Wiener for his leadership on California’s permitting reforms and broader housing agenda. But I know far less about Chan. Most of what I’ve encountered portrays her as a NIMBY figure who has had a long-running and often contentious relationship with Wiener and other YIMBYs.
Flanagan up 13 points in new internal poll. Her lead over Craig increases to 29 after negative messaging against both is applied.
https://x.com/lisakashinsky/status/2016514509188346043?s=46
Some (not here) have questioned why Flanagan has released all her internals if she is confident.
I ask why hasn't Craig if she is in the lead?
"Inbox: Rep. Sharice Davids (D-KS 03) kicked off a statewide tour as she considers a possible challenge to Sen. Roger Marshall (R)."
https://x.com/kirk_bado/status/2016552286198124719
Thoughts?
No.
Last time Democrats elected a senator in Kansas Herbert Hoover was president. And Marshall is not unpopular or that controversial.
Marshall has actually had some pretty bad comments and stances over the years. I question his level of popularity.
I think she'd be better off in the House, especially in her current seat, she doesn't stand much of a chance statewide - even this year.
She wouldn’t give up her house seat if she didn’t have some interesting data coming in.
I thought that too but maybe she wants to raise her name ID in case Trump gets the votes and she is gerrymandered out of the House in the next session.
If she over performed statewide as much as she did in her district she would still lose by 9. So maybe she makes it a single digit race. Johnson county dems love her.
I guess this means they couldn't convince Laura Kelly. Ah well.
Kelly is up there age wise and also she's smart enough to know she has no chance in a federal race, might as well enjoy retirement.
https://www.nola.com/news/politics/baton-rouge-republican-joins-race-for-julia-letlow-us-house-seat-congress/article_dda6d34a-3db0-44bc-947f-fbad0e78121e.html
LA-5: State Rep. Dixon McMakin is in, which probably means former Rep. Garret Graves won't run, considering McMakin's announcement hinged on his decision.
That is… one hell of a name.
I’d prefer Graves exact his revenge up Jeff “Klandry,” personally
Landry has a candidate in this race named Misti Cordell, who he appointed to the Board of Regents. Not sure who the anti-Landry candidate will be. Maybe this guy.
Dixon McMakin. What a name.
Poll shows support for Virginia redistricting ballot initiative up 51-43.
https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2016539979988500698?s=46
This isn't California. If Democrats are given the green light by the Supreme Court, and they go for a 9-1 map, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that they'd lose the referendum.
You mean a 9-2 or 10-1 map.
Sure it's not Cali but it doesn't have to be, after last November i feel good about an 8 point lead in Virginia.
MD-Gov: Though Wes Moore is strongly favored to win a second term, Republicans can barely raise any money against him:
-State delegate Chris Bouchat has raised $8,000
-Wealthy businessman and owner of the Baltimore Blast Ed Hale has raised only $15,000
-Businessman John Myrick has raised $17,000
-The best-funded Republican, little-known farmer Kurt Wedekind, has raised about $60,000
https://campaignfinance.maryland.gov/
The fact that Moore is strongly favored is probably the reason no one can raise money against him.
In Massachusetts, where Maura Healey is also strongly favored to win a second term, Michael Minogue and Mike Kennealy have poured millions of their own dollars into their campaigns.
Didn't Healey do something that pissed people off? I feel like I remember there was some discontent against her, but for the life of me I cannot remember why.
She nominated her ex-girlfriend for a judgeship, which drew ire from state Republicans, and also had a staffer charged for cocaine and illegal gun trafficking.
There you go, thanks. Haven't heard of many Wes Moore scandals so that might play a role too.
After the daily crap Trump pulls that they applaud, they don't really have a leg to stand on in Mass, Healy by 30.
Oh no I was under no delusion that the GOP stood a sliver of a chance in MA, I was just trying to figure out why they're fundraising better than Moore's opponents.
Ed Hale appears to get the most press coverage. Moore shouldn't have any problem. I think the majority of Maryland Republicans were hoping for a Larry Hogan comeback.