Morning Digest: Montana Sen. Steve Daines quits reelection bid at filing deadline

The shock move included last-minute shenanigans to pave the way for a favored replacement

Montana Sen. Steve Daines (R) (credit: Steve Daines Facebook)

Leading Off

MT-Sen

In a shocking last-second move, Republican Sen. Steve Daines withdrew his name from the ballot mere minutes before candidate filing closed Wednesday evening in Montana and sought to hand off his seat to U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme.

Donald Trump, who had backed Daines for reelection last April, quickly blessed the senator’s abrupt exit by endorsing Alme, who had also served as the state’s top federal prosecutor during his first administration.

Daines, who had just led Senate Republicans back to the majority as chair of the NRSC in 2024, had already filed to seek a third term and had given no indication he was looking to retire. Alme, whose second stint as U.S. attorney began in October, had also shown no interest in running for office this year.

The switch came hours after former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar announced that he would run as an independent against Daines, whom he dubbed a Washington insider “protecting a system that works for the wealthy and connected, and nobody else.”

Bodnar’s entry came two months after Democrat Jon Tester, who lost reelection to Republican Tim Sheehy in the 2024 contest for Montana’s other Senate seat, urged his party to consolidate behind Bodnar rather than field its own candidate.

“During my last two races the Democratic Party was poison in my attempts to get re-elected,” Tester wrote in a text message that circulated among state Democrats in January. “That is not to say that is the only reason I got beat in 2024 ... but it was hell of an anvil.”

Bodnar, who highlighted his service as a Green Beret in his announcement video and portrayed himself as an alternative to divisive party politics, did not say which party he’d caucus with should he unseat Daines.

While Bodnar launched his campaign on the final day for major-party candidates to place their names on the June 2 ballot, independents have until May 26 to turn in around 13,000 signatures to make the November general election. Few anticipated any action among either Republicans or Democrats, though, as the deadline to file by 5 PM local time approached.

But the race took an extraordinary turn at precisely 4:52 PM when Alme, without any warning, filed paperwork with state election officials to run for the Senate. Daines withdrew from the ballot just minutes later.

It was only after it was too late for anyone else to challenge Alme in the GOP primary that the news of Daines’ abrupt departure broke, even though he soon released a video—which had evidently been filmed at some earlier point—announcing his decision.

The senator also put out a statement saying he had been “wrestling with this decision for months,” though he did not say why he had kept his deliberations private until the last possible moment. The incumbent also threw his support behind Alme, who did not even announce he was running until hours later.

Daines’ withdrawal came just two days after Rep. Ryan Zinke, a fellow Republican who represents the western half of Montana, stunned political observers by announcing that he was ending his own reelection campaign.

Another Republican, however, was already prepared to succeed him. Just minutes later, conservative radio host Aaron Flint announced that he would run to represent the 1st Congressional District, and both Zinke and Trump endorsed him that same day.

But while other Republicans like former state Sen. Al Olszewski and Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen had a short window to launch their own campaigns against Zinke’s chosen successor, that’s not the case in the Senate race. Alme instead only faces two Republicans who had been waging little-noticed challenges to Daines.

Five Democrats were already running for this seat, though none of them had generated much attention either.

Former state Rep. Reilly Neill, the most prominent member of this quintet, had dismissed the strategy advocated by Tester, who concluded his January message in support of Bodnar “with a declaration that Neill will lose badly,” according to the Montana Free Press.

She also responded to Bodnar’s launch on Wednesday with hostility, calling him a “shill” who “hasn’t done shit” in a post on X.

“I won’t sit down, back away or be quiet,” she added. “I won’t let this guy bully me out of the race.”

Neill won an election to the state House in 2012 but lost her seat after one term. She then ran for governor in 2020 but dropped out well before the primary. She also ran a write-in bid for the 2nd Congressional District last cycle and received 0.4% of the vote.

Neill responded to Daines’ abrupt departure by saying it “opens this field for the United States Senate and this is a good development for Montana.”

Bodnar, likewise, reacted to the development by saying it underscored why he was running in the first place.

“I’m running to be an independent voice for every single Montanan who is sick of this broken political system and who wants a leader who stands up for our state against the corruption of political elites like Steve Daines and Kurt Alme,” he wrote.

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The Downballot Podcast

Texas’ blockbuster primary night

Primary season started with a bang on Tuesday night, headlined by Texas’ high-intensity Senate race. But there were tons of other important elections on the ballot, not just in the Lone Star State but in North Carolina and Arkansas as well. We recap the top contests on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, which include the first House incumbent to lose this year, multiple races headed to runoffs, and yet another special election flip by Democrats.

We’re also joined this week by Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz, the founder of a new group devoted to electing Democrats to county-level office nationwide called Boosting Future Leaders Onward. Poloncarz tells us all about these important but overlooked posts, including their far-reaching powers and how Democrats are using them to combat Donald Trump’s attacks on our democracy. He also highlights key elections across the country taking place this year.

Election Recaps

NC-04

Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam conceded to Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee on Wednesday evening.

The incumbent prevailed 49-48 in an expensive primary rematch for North Carolina’s 4th Congressional District, a safely blue seat that Foushee first won in 2022 after beating Allam by a wider 46-37 margin.

TX-18

The Democratic primary in the safely blue 18th Congressional District in Houston will head to a runoff between two incumbents with very different resumes: Rep. Al Green, who is 78 and has served in Congress since 2005, and Rep. Christian Menefee, a 37-year-old who just won a special election a month ago.

Menefee holds a narrow 46-44 lead, with two other candidates taking the balance. One is former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who lost that special election to Menefee in a 69-31 landslide.

Following that defeat, Edwards said she would not compete in the primary for a full term but was unable to remove her name from the ballot and wound up winning 8% of the vote on Tuesday. She has not taken sides in the race, which saw heavy spending on Menefee’s behalf by a pro-crypto super PAC but no comparable outlays for Green.

TX-33

Former Rep. Colin Allred and his successor in Congress, Rep. Julie Johnson, will meet again at the end of May after neither candidate earned a majority in the Democratic primary Tuesday night.

Allred led the first round of voting in the safely blue Dallas-based 33rd District by a 44-33 margin, but the dynamics in a runoff could be very different with the Democrats’ Senate primary no longer driving turnout.

TX-38

Mortgage broker Jon Bonck fell just short of winning an outright majority in the GOP primary for Texas’ open 38th District on Tuesday, meaning he’ll have to face off against former FAA official Shelly deZevallos for the right to succeed Rep. Wesley Hunt.

DeZevallos, though, will have a difficult time digging this one out. On the strength of Donald Trump’s endorsement, Bonck rang up a wide 47-19 advantage in the first round of voting in this conservative Houston-area district.

AR State Senate

State Senate Majority Leader Blake Johnson, a Republican who is the number-two member of Arkansas’ upper chamber, lost his primary Tuesday in a 62-38 landslide against state Rep. Jeremy Wooldridge.

Johnson, who had the support of Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, had announced last year that he would seek to lead the Senate as its president pro tempore. Instead, though, he became the first high-profile legislative leader to lose renomination anywhere in the country this year.

Johnson’s defeat came on the same night that North Carolina Republican Phil Berger, who has served as president pro tempore of the Tarheel State’s upper chamber since 2011, found himself trailing challenger Sam Page by all of two votes. It may be some time, though, before Berger learns his ultimate fate.

Harris County, TX Judge

Marty Lancton, the leader of Houston’s firefighters union, acknowledged Wednesday that he failed to advance to the May 26 Republican runoff for Harris County judge, a post that in Texas is executive rather than judicial.

While Lancton enjoyed the support of Gov. Greg Abbott, who has pledged to use his massive war chest to turn blue-leaning Harris County “dark red,” it wasn’t enough to overcome two intraparty rivals who have previously struggled at the ballot box.

Former County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez, who lost reelection in 2018 and came up short in the 2019 and 2023 contests for Houston controller, leads with 26%. Air Force veteran Warren Howell, who earned little support in the 2022 primary for the same post he’s seeking now, edged out Lancton 20.8 to 20.6 on Tuesday for the second runoff spot.

The eventual GOP nominee will take on either ​​former Houston Mayor Annise Parker or former Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, who will also compete in a May runoff. The ultimate winner will succeed Democrat Lina Hidalgo, who is not seeking a third term as leader of this populous community.

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

The Virginia Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday that an April 21 vote on a constitutional amendment allowing the state to implement a new congressional map could proceed, staying a lower court order that had blocked the election.

In a six-page opinion, the justices unanimously said that state law strongly counsels against judicial intervention to halt an election. They noted that concerns about the election’s legality could be addressed afterward and emphasized that they were not ruling on the merits of any such arguments.

Should the amendment pass and future legal challenges fail, Virginia would adopt a new map that would give Democrats the chance to win 10 of the state’s 11 congressional districts.

Senate

GA-Sen

Republican Rep. Mike Collins has earned the endorsement of the Club for Growth, the radical anti-tax group that often spends heavily to help its chosen candidates win their primaries. Collins faces fellow Rep. Buddy Carter and Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach, in the May 19 primary for the right to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.

TX-Sen

After staying on the sidelines throughout the race, Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he would issue an endorsement in the Texas GOP Senate primary “soon”—though he doesn’t want a runoff to take place at all.

The contest, Trump posted on Truth Social, “cannot, for the good of the Party, and our Country, itself, be allowed to go on any longer” and said he plans to end it by “asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!”

The Atlantic subsequently reported that unnamed Trump aides “expect him to endorse” Sen. John Cornyn, according to “three people briefed on the deliberations.” Cornyn holds a narrow 42-41 lead over state Attorney General Ken Paxton with most votes counted.

Paxton, however, responded by telling Real America Voice, a conservative outlet, “I'm staying in this race. I owe it to the people of Texas.”

House

CA-11

San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan just received an endorsement from Sen. Adam Schiff ahead of the June 2 top-two primary for California’s open 11th Congressional District. Schiff is the most prominent Golden State Democrat to take sides in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi, who has not yet announced who, if anyone, she plans to support.

GA-10

Wealthy businessman Ryan Millsap unexpectedly announced Wednesday that he would seek the GOP nomination for Georgia’s safely red 10th Congressional District, saying he would spend up to $4 million of his own money to finance his campaign.

Millsap, a former film studio leader whom the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein says has become “a mainstay in Atlanta real estate, political and entertainment circles” since he relocated from California more than a decade ago, launched his effort just two days before the state’s filing deadline.

One prominent Republican was anything but happy with this development, though. State Rep. Houston Gaines kicked off his own campaign in late July to replace Rep. Mike Collins, who is running for the Senate, in a constituency that includes the eastern Atlanta exurbs and the college town of Athens.

While Bluestein predicted at the time that the primary could turn into “an all-out GOP brawl,” Gaines instead spent the next seven months virtually unopposed. But that finally changed on Wednesday with the entry of Millsap, whom Gaines blasted as a “California film executive.”

Bluestein also noted that Millsap has previously criticized both Donald Trump and a 2019 anti-abortion bill that Gov. Brian Kemp signed into law. Millsap tried to insulate himself from such attacks with an announcement video in which he touts himself as a “political outsider and MAGA warrior” who once believed the “lies” of the “radical left [and] the RINOS.”

The candidate, though, argues that “COVID and antifa made me realize they sold us out.” The audience then sees a photo of Gaines accompanied by the text, “Career politicians sold us out.”

Millsap was also the subject of a 2024 piece by ProPublica and the AJC titled, “A Powerful Atlanta Movie Executive Praised for His Diversity Efforts Shared Racist, Antisemitic Sentiments in Texts.” Millsap issued an apology after that story was published yet warned in his launch video that the country is “being invaded by people who hate us.”

NV-02, NV-04

Air Force veteran David Flippo announced on Wednesday that he would run for Nevada’s open 2nd District rather than continue his bid against Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford in the neighboring 4th District.

Flippo, who narrowly lost the 2024 primary to face Horsford, said that he had $1 million banked that he could now use for his new campaign. He reported having less than $400,000 on hand at the end of December, but updated reports covering the first quarter of the year are not due until April 15.

Flippo is the first notable Republican to enter the primary for the conservative 2nd District since Army veteran Sam Brown, who likely would have had Donald Trump’s endorsement, said Tuesday that he would not run to replace retiring GOP Rep. Mark Amodei.

But while state Controller Andy Matthews briefly expressed interest in running for Congress after learning that Brown wouldn’t stand in his way, he said Wednesday that he’d instead decided to continue running for reelection.

However, there’s renewed chatter that Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian, possibly the most famous perennial candidate in the country, might be taking a fresh look at the race to succeed Amodei.

Tarkanian, who opposed Amodei for renomination in 2022 in one of his many failed runs for office, initially said last month that he would forge ahead with his campaign for attorney general.

The Nevada Independent’s Mini Racker, though, reported Tuesday that a poll testing Tarkanian as a possible congressional candidate has been in the field. A screenshot of the survey even included the disclaimer, “Paid for by Tarkanian for Nevada.”

Racker added that she contacted Tarkanian to ask him about his thinking and had yet to hear back. The Silver State’s candidate filing deadline is March 13, however, so the suspense won’t last long.

NY-04

Former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito will announce “as early as this week or next” that he’ll seek to reclaim New York’s 4th Congressional District, Newsday’s Billy House reports.

D’Esposito, whom House wrote last month was “wavering on seeking a rematch” against Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, would at last give Nassau County GOP leaders the candidate they want for a district on Long Island that Kamala Harris carried 50-49.

His entry would also give Gillen an opponent she’s quite familiar with. D’Esposito narrowly defeated her in a 2022 race for what was then an open seat, but Gillen defeated him 51-49 two years later.

Donald Trump went on to nominate D’Esposito last March to serve as inspector general for the Department of Labor, though he wasn’t confirmed until December. In an October confirmation hearing, he refused to answer questions about whether he might run for office again.

Gillen, though, may not be able to fully concentrate yet on what would be her third straight bout with D’Esposito.

Former Assemblymember Taylor Darling said last month that she planned to launch a primary challenge against Gillen, who was one of seven Democrats to support a bill in January that gave billions more to ICE. While Darling doesn’t appear to have made a formal announcement, her Instagram account identifies her as a candidate for the 4th District.

TX-23

Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales admitted to having an affair with a former staffer on Wednesday, hours after the House Ethics Committee announced on Wednesday that it was opening an investigation into the congressman’s possible “sexual misconduct.”

A day earlier, Gonzales was forced into a primary runoff in Texas’ 23rd District by gun maker Brandon Herrera.

Gonzales had initially denied what he called “rumors” about his relationship with his aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, when they first surfaced last year. Santos-Aviles died by suicide in September after dousing herself with gasoline and setting herself on fire.

In later statements, however, Gonzales avoided issuing any denials, and on Wednesday, he acknowledged the affair in an interview with conservative radio host Joseph Pagliarulo.

“I made a mistake,” he said. “I had a lapse in judgment and there was a lack of faith, and I take full responsibility for those actions.”

After the Ethics Committee announced its investigation, Politico further reported that the independent Office of Congressional Conduct had forwarded a report to the committee concluding there was “substantial reason to believe” that Gonzales had “engaged in a sexual relationship” with a staffer, which would violate House rules.

The report has not been made public, though its existence was first reported by NBC News last week. It was not sent to the committee sooner because the OCC is barred from sharing such findings within 60 days of an election in which the member of Congress under investigation is on the ballot. (The May 26 runoff is more than 80 days away.)

In a brief statement he issued following the probe’s announcement, Gonzales said, “I welcome the opportunity to present all the facts to the committee.”

He also told CNN’s Manu Raju that he would remain in the runoff, saying, “I had an election yesterday, and we did well.” Gonzales trailed Herrera in the first round of voting by a 43-42 margin.

Democrats, by contrast, won’t have to deal with a runoff after attorney Katy Padilla Stout prevailed comfortably with 52% of the vote. Padilla Stout faces difficult odds in this conservative district and has raised relatively little so far, but Democrats hope that a bitter, protracted battle between Gonzales and Herrera could leave the GOP with a weakened nominee regardless of who prevails.

UT-04

Republican Rep. Burgess Owens announced Wednesday that he would not seek a fourth term under Utah’s new congressional map.

Owens, 74, is making life much easier for the other three members of the state’s all-GOP House delegation by stepping aside ahead of the March 13 candidate filing deadline.

That’s because Utah’s new court-imposed map transformed the 1st District from a safely Republican constituency into one that Kamala Harris would have carried 60-37. While downballot GOP candidates have done considerably better than Donald Trump in the revamped 1st, no congressional Republicans have shown any obvious interest in taking their chances on such difficult terrain.

Bryan Schott of Utah Politics Watch, who first reported that Owens was about to announce his departure, writes that two other Republican incumbents, Reps. Mike Kennedy and Celeste Maloy, had “been playing a quiet game of chicken” over which of them would run for the revamped 3rd District, which includes each of their homes.

By retiring, though, Owens has now made it easy for Kennedy to instead run for the revised version of Owens’ 4th District and thus free up the 3rd for Maloy. Rep. Blake Moore, who serves the old 1st District, likewise appears set to run for the new 2nd.

Owens, for his part, is now winding down a relatively brief political career.

A former NFL safety who played for the New York Jets and later for the Oakland Raiders when they won the 1980 Super Bowl, Owens became a conservative author before deciding to run for office in the 2020 cycle. That year, he was one of several Republicans who challenged Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams, who had flipped the 4th District in the Salt Lake City area during the 2018 blue wave.

Owens decisively won the GOP primary ahead of what proved to be one of the most competitive House races in the nation. He ultimately narrowly unseated McAdams 48-47 but ran well behind Trump, who carried the 4th District 52-43.

Republican legislators, who voted to gut a 2018 citizen-backed initiative to clamp down on partisan gerrymandering, soon passed a new map that protected Owens and all of his colleagues. As a result, he had no trouble winning reelection in both 2022 and 2024.

A years-long legal battle, though, ended with a state judge selecting a new map last year that made the 1st District reliably blue. McAdams is now one of several Democrats running for this revamped seat, which is based in Salt Lake County.

Secretaries of State

IN-SoS

Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, who led Indiana’s capital city as a Republican more than a decade ago, announced Wednesday that he would run for secretary of state as an independent.

Ballard, who hasn’t sought office since he won his second and final term in 2011, is challenging Republican incumbent Diego Morales, who was first elected four years ago after calling the 2020 presidential election a “​​scam.”

Marine veteran Beau Bayh, a Democrat who is the son of former Sen. Evan Bayh, launched his own campaign last fall.

But while Bayh has highlighted unflattering stories about Morales spending taxpayer money on overseas trips and expensive vehicles, Ballard refrained from attacking the incumbent in kicking off his bid. The former mayor instead touted himself as an alternative to traditional partisan politics in an interview with the Indiana Capital Chronicle.

Morales, however, isn’t assured a place on the general election ballot: Two candidates—Knox County Clerk David Shelton, who lost the GOP nomination to Morales in 2022, and Jamie Reitenour, who waged a quixotic 2024 campaign for governor—are challenging him for renomination.

Indiana, unlike most states, chooses nominees for secretary of state at party conventions rather than through traditional primaries. The GOP holds its gathering June 19-20, which is the month after the primary for congressional and legislative offices. Democrats, meanwhile, will meet on June 6, though Bayh is unlikely to face any serious opposition.

Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: University of North Florida:

  • Ashley Moody (R-inc): 45, Alexander Vindman (D): 38.

  • Moody (R-inc): 46, Angie Nixon (D): 38.

• AZ-Gov (R): Noble Predictive Insights: Andy Biggs: 40, David Schweikert: 19, undecided: 41.

• AZ-Gov: NPI:

  • Katie Hobbs (D-inc): 42, Biggs (R): 37.

  • Hobbs (D-inc): 44, Schweikert (R): 35.

• FL-Gov: UNF:

  • Byron Donalds (R): 42, David Jolly (D): 36.

  • Donalds (R): 43, Jerry Demings (D): 36.

• NY-Gov: Siena University: Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 51, Bruce Blakeman (R): 31. (Jan.: 54-28 Hochul.)