Not only is this bad news for Americans paying more for gas, it's giving Russia a massive break just as shit was really hitting the fan for their oil economy. Good luck getting Putin to agree to anything now that his economy just got a shot in the arm. It really is mind-blowing how staggeringly incompetent Trump is.
I wonder if this will do anything to help EVs at all, after the current admin did so much to slow down their growth. When the Russian invasion of Ukraine started and spiked oil prices, EV demand went through the roof and prices went even crazier than they already were from Covid doing a number on the auto market.
I know I'm happy that I don't have to directly worry about gas prices, even if I still have to care about the macroeconomic impact of them.
I’m inclined to agree with Tester. Bullock had to be recruited really reluctantly in 2020 and Schweitzer, who I like a lot, is an idiosyncratic guy who I’m not sure wants anything to do with politics ever again
I wonder if Stratton is gaining too late and will fall just short, or if she's gaining momentum at just the right time for everything to come together for her. I hope she wins.
Hogan Gidley is full of shit. I've never seen Beto's 2018 primary garner THIS much excitement and energy that Talarico and Crockett did.
If Talarico can keep the coalition together (as well as a good portion of Crockett primary voters), there could be a BIG upset in November. I doubt Cornyn, should he win the primary runoff, be a shoo-in by any means.
The combined turnout for the 2018 TX Democratic primary race was 1,042,914 combined for all three candidates (Beto nabbed 61% of that or 644,632). Whereas the 2018 TX Republican primary was a coronation for Cruz, who got 1.32M (85%) of the 1,549,573 ballots cast.
Compared to the 2026 TX Democratic primary? Combined, Crockett and Talarico's primary votes quadrupled Beto's 2018 primary numbers (as well as eclipse Cruz's primary numbers) -- at least 2.79M voters. That reflects the state's growth as well as excitement and energy among TX Dem and left-leaning unaffiliated voters.
The Kavanaugh confirmation fight in the Senate that fall galvanized more TX Rs to vote for Rafael than O'Rourke -- who only won re-election by 2 points. (And had there'd been no SCOTUS confirmation fight, Cruz probably would've lost!) I don't know if a similar fight (should SCOTUS scumbag Alito retire this year) will have the same effect for Cornyn or Paxton.
I'm not exactly predicting that we're winning statewide in Texas this year, but I don't find Gidley's comparison to be on point.
Minnesota has had largely static party balance of power for a while now. It is close and it's absolutely a place where republicans can win. They're not losing because of some insurmountable barrier they cannot overcome. In part they've just been unlucky. In part their candidates haven't been good enough. In part we have popular incumbents who have managed to win during the worst cycles for us. Critically, that we prevented them from gerrymandering the state after 2010 and 2020 did a lot to maintain our bench and prevent republicans from having an atypically strong one. With a bit of proper luck and the right candidate they can win there, it's just they're not favored.
Texas has been slowly but surely moving towards us for about 20 years now. Our losses haven't been because the state is permanently 5 points to the right of us or something. Our losses have been because Texas started off so insanely over the top red back when it started to move towards us that it's taken 20 years for a win to seriously look plausible in a blue wave environment. If those trends towards us continue (not guaranteed, but not a bad bet either) then Texas should be very competitive in the 30s.
The only thing that's saved Democrats in Minnesota has been a constant internal realignment. A lot of states have experienced an internal realignment in the Trump era, but Minnesota is the only one where Democrats have been able to cancel out enough votes to keep it from being a red state.
I agree that it's happening, but I disagree on the use of "only" in both cases.
We've benefited a lot from republicans just not having top quality candidates. Their senate candidate in 2014 was a guy who isn't even notable enough to have a wikipedia page, plus Franken was very popular at the time. Their 2020 senate candidate was a former member of the house for a single term. We lucked out in barely winning the 2010 gubernatorial election. There's a lot that's gone right for us that we relied on more than counterbalanced internal realignment.
That counterbalance of internal realignment happens everywhere. Minnesota is not the only state that we've held onto because of it. NH, at least, would be a red state if we were only losing rural voters without gaining suburban voters (like we are in reality). Michigan too. I assume you're not counting Arizona or Georgia because those became competitive with recent realignment, but if they weren't seeing the blue side of that continue they'd have shifted back to red.
That's quite an overstatement. When given to one candidate in an election, they are of significant importance. What do you suppose is the percentage of Trump-endorsed candidates who win Republican primaries?
I'm a bit surprised and disappointed Neuces County, seat of Corpus Christi, isn't up there. It used to be a swing county but swung towards Republicans and hasn't been won by a Democrat president since Clinton in 1996.
I'm not usually a believer in Primary turnout being predictive of GE results, but that is pretty stark and definitely a good sign of a Latino bounceback to us...
Beto (8,273), Biden (9,123), and Harris (6,862) got more votes than this. In the 2018 primary, there were around 6,500 Democratic primary votes cast, and 12 Republican votes. In the 2022 primary, there were about 3,450 Democratic primary votes cast versus about 1,100 Republican votes. In the 2024 primary, there were about 1,900 Democratic primary votes cast, and about 440 Republican votes. Perhaps the percentage of Democratic primary votes being higher than in 2022 and 2024 is a good sign, but I don't really think this is a sign Talarico will get even close to pre-Biden numbers.
I think he appoints Pinnell and then Hern and Bice run in the primary. Hern takes the outsider MAGA lane, Bice takes the establishment conservative lane, Pinnell either retires or gets trounced by one of them as a moderate.
Rumors are Bice is interested too. Walters would be the nightmare candidate, could easily be the Kobach/Greitens of the cycle that the GOP desperately tries to stop winning the primary if he got in.
Jett might jump into Bice's seat if it opens up. Rumors are Pinnell will go for Hern's, and Bynum/Dahm could too.
If Brecheen gets in, McCall might go for his seat, so could Avery Frix who was his runoff opponent in 2022.
True although given Ras Baraka is running for a 4th term, I would hope he could get a chance to shoot for higher office or greater leadership abilities than just serving as Mayor. I was impressed with his fearlessness as a gubernatorial candidate last year, especially towards ICE.
Among other things, as we all know, Trump is an incompetent idiot.
Not only is this bad news for Americans paying more for gas, it's giving Russia a massive break just as shit was really hitting the fan for their oil economy. Good luck getting Putin to agree to anything now that his economy just got a shot in the arm. It really is mind-blowing how staggeringly incompetent Trump is.
Trump wasn't really trying to get Russia to agree to anything. The only objection he has to Putin is that he's a competitor in oil sales.
I wonder if this will do anything to help EVs at all, after the current admin did so much to slow down their growth. When the Russian invasion of Ukraine started and spiked oil prices, EV demand went through the roof and prices went even crazier than they already were from Covid doing a number on the auto market.
I know I'm happy that I don't have to directly worry about gas prices, even if I still have to care about the macroeconomic impact of them.
I’m inclined to agree with Tester. Bullock had to be recruited really reluctantly in 2020 and Schweitzer, who I like a lot, is an idiosyncratic guy who I’m not sure wants anything to do with politics ever again
Besides, Tester and Schweitzer are a lot older now than they were in their prime.
That too. Schweitzer is 70 I believe and Tester isn’t much younger
Tester is a little over a year younger - Schweitzer will be 71 this year, Tester will be 70
Thank you!
Tester wouldn't be coming in as a freshman though at least.
Lol. WV has a supreme court justice named Bill Wooton (who's actually pretty nice in person, and the only Democrat on the court.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWwdh6FGL4M
That is downright funny....
crush them.
Quick, someone find me a violin!
I wonder if Stratton is gaining too late and will fall just short, or if she's gaining momentum at just the right time for everything to come together for her. I hope she wins.
Hogan Gidley is full of shit. I've never seen Beto's 2018 primary garner THIS much excitement and energy that Talarico and Crockett did.
If Talarico can keep the coalition together (as well as a good portion of Crockett primary voters), there could be a BIG upset in November. I doubt Cornyn, should he win the primary runoff, be a shoo-in by any means.
Could you compare this year with Beto's 2018 campaign a bit more? I remember a lot of excitement for Beto.
I agree...I'm not sure there is "more" excitement this time around but we also don't get to run against Ted Cruz this time.
The combined turnout for the 2018 TX Democratic primary race was 1,042,914 combined for all three candidates (Beto nabbed 61% of that or 644,632). Whereas the 2018 TX Republican primary was a coronation for Cruz, who got 1.32M (85%) of the 1,549,573 ballots cast.
Compared to the 2026 TX Democratic primary? Combined, Crockett and Talarico's primary votes quadrupled Beto's 2018 primary numbers (as well as eclipse Cruz's primary numbers) -- at least 2.79M voters. That reflects the state's growth as well as excitement and energy among TX Dem and left-leaning unaffiliated voters.
The Kavanaugh confirmation fight in the Senate that fall galvanized more TX Rs to vote for Rafael than O'Rourke -- who only won re-election by 2 points. (And had there'd been no SCOTUS confirmation fight, Cruz probably would've lost!) I don't know if a similar fight (should SCOTUS scumbag Alito retire this year) will have the same effect for Cornyn or Paxton.
I'm not exactly predicting that we're winning statewide in Texas this year, but I don't find Gidley's comparison to be on point.
Minnesota has had largely static party balance of power for a while now. It is close and it's absolutely a place where republicans can win. They're not losing because of some insurmountable barrier they cannot overcome. In part they've just been unlucky. In part their candidates haven't been good enough. In part we have popular incumbents who have managed to win during the worst cycles for us. Critically, that we prevented them from gerrymandering the state after 2010 and 2020 did a lot to maintain our bench and prevent republicans from having an atypically strong one. With a bit of proper luck and the right candidate they can win there, it's just they're not favored.
Texas has been slowly but surely moving towards us for about 20 years now. Our losses haven't been because the state is permanently 5 points to the right of us or something. Our losses have been because Texas started off so insanely over the top red back when it started to move towards us that it's taken 20 years for a win to seriously look plausible in a blue wave environment. If those trends towards us continue (not guaranteed, but not a bad bet either) then Texas should be very competitive in the 30s.
The only thing that's saved Democrats in Minnesota has been a constant internal realignment. A lot of states have experienced an internal realignment in the Trump era, but Minnesota is the only one where Democrats have been able to cancel out enough votes to keep it from being a red state.
I agree that it's happening, but I disagree on the use of "only" in both cases.
We've benefited a lot from republicans just not having top quality candidates. Their senate candidate in 2014 was a guy who isn't even notable enough to have a wikipedia page, plus Franken was very popular at the time. Their 2020 senate candidate was a former member of the house for a single term. We lucked out in barely winning the 2010 gubernatorial election. There's a lot that's gone right for us that we relied on more than counterbalanced internal realignment.
That counterbalance of internal realignment happens everywhere. Minnesota is not the only state that we've held onto because of it. NH, at least, would be a red state if we were only losing rural voters without gaining suburban voters (like we are in reality). Michigan too. I assume you're not counting Arizona or Georgia because those became competitive with recent realignment, but if they weren't seeing the blue side of that continue they'd have shifted back to red.
More Rs are realizing Trump's endorsements don't mean shit.
That's quite an overstatement. When given to one candidate in an election, they are of significant importance. What do you suppose is the percentage of Trump-endorsed candidates who win Republican primaries?
I'm a bit surprised and disappointed Neuces County, seat of Corpus Christi, isn't up there. It used to be a swing county but swung towards Republicans and hasn't been won by a Democrat president since Clinton in 1996.
A blue tsunami in November?
Always like that. Not something special this year.
I'm not usually a believer in Primary turnout being predictive of GE results, but that is pretty stark and definitely a good sign of a Latino bounceback to us...
Rio Grande Valley counties have voted like this in primaries for a very long time
Beto (8,273), Biden (9,123), and Harris (6,862) got more votes than this. In the 2018 primary, there were around 6,500 Democratic primary votes cast, and 12 Republican votes. In the 2022 primary, there were about 3,450 Democratic primary votes cast versus about 1,100 Republican votes. In the 2024 primary, there were about 1,900 Democratic primary votes cast, and about 440 Republican votes. Perhaps the percentage of Democratic primary votes being higher than in 2022 and 2024 is a good sign, but I don't really think this is a sign Talarico will get even close to pre-Biden numbers.
Yeah, they know they're not padding their Senate majority after November.
Hell, they might even lose it.
they are not because they know it won't matter!
I have a friend who has convinced me that a Ballard entry actually is helpful for us.
Please elaborate.
I can imagine he would help us by taking a lot more vote from Morales than Bayh.
Because he used to be a Republican? I wouldn't assume so, in a time when that means "Trump lackey" and nothing else.
I think he appoints Pinnell and then Hern and Bice run in the primary. Hern takes the outsider MAGA lane, Bice takes the establishment conservative lane, Pinnell either retires or gets trounced by one of them as a moderate.
Rumors are Bice is interested too. Walters would be the nightmare candidate, could easily be the Kobach/Greitens of the cycle that the GOP desperately tries to stop winning the primary if he got in.
Jett might jump into Bice's seat if it opens up. Rumors are Pinnell will go for Hern's, and Bynum/Dahm could too.
If Brecheen gets in, McCall might go for his seat, so could Avery Frix who was his runoff opponent in 2022.
Shannon is from Cole's district. So I don't see him running for any of the open house seats.
Also, he's running for LG right now.
Brecheen said when elected in 2022 that he would serve 4 terms, retiring in 2030, and not seek a promotion. Could be different now, though.
Well yeah, that was with the expectation there would not be another senate opening for a while. Both Mullin and Lankford are pretty young.
Hern said in late 2024 he wouldn't leave the House to focus on the majority. I guess he changed his mind.
I think "fired by Trump" would not be a help in a primary. Not to mention the *gestures vaguely* everything else.
touché
Wild turnabout for him!
True although given Ras Baraka is running for a 4th term, I would hope he could get a chance to shoot for higher office or greater leadership abilities than just serving as Mayor. I was impressed with his fearlessness as a gubernatorial candidate last year, especially towards ICE.
Me too, and as a sometime visitor to Newark, it looks to me like he's done an excellent job helping to rehabilitate the city.
He could have ran for congress in 2024, but chose to continuing running for governor
I could see Baraka being excellent in the House.
NJ.com is a shell of it's former self, and nothing else has emerged as the state newspaper of record
Typo: Bodnar "should he unseat Sheehy"
Fixed, thank you!