What does everyone make of this broader trend of independents running in statewide races as a stand-in for Democratic candidates? On the one hand they do seem to run stronger in certain races, like Osborn in Nebraska or McMullin in Utah, but on the other hand it does run counter to the 50 state strategy that most people on here adhere to. Fewer Republicans is objectively good, but that doesn't mean it gets you any closer to some of your policy objectives that independents may not support.
Fair. I guess the problem is when an independent enters a race the Democrats have not abandoned and starts fighting for the same moderate voters, thinking of Duggan in the Michigan governor race. As far as the Senate, I just worry that things many of you want like Supreme Court expansion or federal oversight of redistricting or the end of filibuster are DOA because of a larger independent caucus.
Something similar worked well in Kansas for quite a while, where moderate Republicans allied with Democrats in the state legislature against the extremists.
I think running indies and allying with moderate Republicans (if there are enough) is the key to success from a legislation and governance standpoint (not necessarily for Democratic Party itself).
Seems somewhat comparable to conservative Democrats finding success in places like Hawaii and Rhode Island. When one party has dominance, you have to find other ways to gain access to power.
From what I can tell for looking at results, even an Independent like King who caucuses with Democrats most often votes for them gets a 8-10% boost in margin just because the D is removed from the ballot line. There are many states in which that 8-10% is needed even under blue wave conditions. That’s the case in Nebraska and I think in Montana too.
So anytime a plausible leader, whether they are an anti-Trump conservative, a centrist, or a maverick, I’d be open to supporting them and not running a Democratic candidate for that office. Even if they just vote against MAGA half the time it would be a victory. It’s a tactical election by election, race by race decision.
I think the 50 state strategy is longterm. Investing in candidates with no chance of winning in state legislative, county, municipality, school board, and other downballot races. But more importantly funding local Democratic organizing and outreach between elections. Events and activities that show there are people in your own neighborhood and not just weak, out-of-touch coastal elites who look down on you. I don’t think we can break that point of view with a campaign ad. Takes being local.
Anyone in my mind, supporting Independent candidates grow the potential of the 50 state strategy.
Any 50 state strategy is doomed to fail in these states unless we figure out a way to counter the Conservative Media Machine mainlining propaganda about our party day in and day out. But I’m in favor of the strategy precisely because the Democratic Brand is so toxic in these states.
LOL about Abbott turning Harris County "dark red". The actual voters there don't seem to have gotten the message, since 65% of them voted in the Democratic primary this week.
Even Beto only won Harris County 58-41 in 2018, and that's the high-water mark for Democrats in the recent era. A Democrat who actually got 65% in Harris in a statewide election would most likely win.
Because Fetterman ran as a progressive outsider with working-class appeal who would demand real change, and Lamb ran as a centrist establishment type. Seemed a pretty clear choice at the time.
Well, that is the way the corporate media portrayed them, which was in love with the idea of Fetterman as working class because of how he dressed, even though he wasn't working class. Lamb's competency was interpreted as "boring."
He also appears to have become a completely different person after his stroke, so you can be forgiven for thinking he was a progressive. That or he was lying the whole time, in which case all of us were fooled. Either way, his career is 100% over after 2028. We only have to worry about him defecting between now and then.
I think we’re all taking the wrong lessons from Fetterman here when the man literally had a stroke that caused brain damage. I don’t think he was lying, I just think the stroke affected him more than we’d like to admit.
I expect Phil Berger to do everything he can to throw out enough votes to be declared a winner. As people know, he has three nepo babies in office. The first one is Junior, who is an associate justice on the NC Supreme Court (refuses to recuse from any cases involving the GOP). Second one I think works at the Rockingham Co Board of Elections office. Third one is a sheriff.
So, expect shenanigans. I don't know if it will go to federal court like the Griffin v. Riggs case did in 2024.
So the incumbent AR state Senate leader that lost his seat in the primary, is the winner a more moderate (or less crazy) Republican? The incumbent was endorsed by Sarah Huckabee Slanders.
idk the actual answer but these days, I fully expect any Republican incumbent that's ousted in a primary to be less crazy than the person that beat them.
Sam Page on paper is more MAGA than Phil Berger. But unlike Berger, he seems to be open to working with moderates and Democrats on some issues (ie the budget that Berger refuses to pass).
Good news: crypto backer Ian Calderon has dropped out of CA-Gov race. Former Asm Majority Leader, known mostly for a plastic straw ban that is now wholly ignored across California, never rose above one percent in the polls, hence his nickname I-One Calderon. Still in: Betty Three and Tony Two.
Paul Mitchell's Simulator now has the chance of an R v R election in November at 25.7%. Insane. Thank you Tony and Betty. And Matt. In fact, thank you Xavier and Antonio.
TX-33 is in Dallas County and thus impacted by the confusion of switching from county wide polling places during early voting to precinct level polling places on Election Day.
Anyone know how the run-off will go as regards to polling places?
Anyone hear what Allred or Johnson has said about the uncounted provisional ballots?
At our Somerville (MA) Democratic Caucus, various candidates for office gave short speeches, including the "some dude" who's running against Ed Markey from the left. What he didn't anticipate is that Sen. Markey himself also gave a speech at our caucus, and a much better one, at that. He was clearly very nervous to have to follow him.
Massachusetts ballot access laws make it hard for minor candidates to get nominated for Statewide office. You need not only 10,000 signatures, but also 15% of the state convention delegates, a threshold he's unlikely to clear with two major candidates competing. (It's within the realm of possibility that Moulton could fail to get 15%, though I think that's unlikely.)
Typo: Bodnar "should he unseat Sheehy"
Fixed, thank you!
Tester should have run again, then dropped out after he won the primary....
What does everyone make of this broader trend of independents running in statewide races as a stand-in for Democratic candidates? On the one hand they do seem to run stronger in certain races, like Osborn in Nebraska or McMullin in Utah, but on the other hand it does run counter to the 50 state strategy that most people on here adhere to. Fewer Republicans is objectively good, but that doesn't mean it gets you any closer to some of your policy objectives that independents may not support.
I’m not a big fan of Angus King, but I’d trade any single Republican in the Senate for a King clone in a heartbeat.
Fair. I guess the problem is when an independent enters a race the Democrats have not abandoned and starts fighting for the same moderate voters, thinking of Duggan in the Michigan governor race. As far as the Senate, I just worry that things many of you want like Supreme Court expansion or federal oversight of redistricting or the end of filibuster are DOA because of a larger independent caucus.
It has worked well in Alaska.
I think it is a temporary solution where the Dem brand is so tarnished by GOP propaganda that D candidates cannot win.
As a tactical move for short term electoral gain, fine. As a long term strategy, it is a loser.
There's never been an independent senator from Alaska, though. Unless you're talking about Gov. Bill Walker.
Alyse Galvin ran two competitive races for AK-AL as an Independent, and Al Gross got some traction as a Senate candidate as well.
Something similar worked well in Kansas for quite a while, where moderate Republicans allied with Democrats in the state legislature against the extremists.
I think running indies and allying with moderate Republicans (if there are enough) is the key to success from a legislation and governance standpoint (not necessarily for Democratic Party itself).
Seems somewhat comparable to conservative Democrats finding success in places like Hawaii and Rhode Island. When one party has dominance, you have to find other ways to gain access to power.
From what I can tell for looking at results, even an Independent like King who caucuses with Democrats most often votes for them gets a 8-10% boost in margin just because the D is removed from the ballot line. There are many states in which that 8-10% is needed even under blue wave conditions. That’s the case in Nebraska and I think in Montana too.
So anytime a plausible leader, whether they are an anti-Trump conservative, a centrist, or a maverick, I’d be open to supporting them and not running a Democratic candidate for that office. Even if they just vote against MAGA half the time it would be a victory. It’s a tactical election by election, race by race decision.
I think the 50 state strategy is longterm. Investing in candidates with no chance of winning in state legislative, county, municipality, school board, and other downballot races. But more importantly funding local Democratic organizing and outreach between elections. Events and activities that show there are people in your own neighborhood and not just weak, out-of-touch coastal elites who look down on you. I don’t think we can break that point of view with a campaign ad. Takes being local.
Anyone in my mind, supporting Independent candidates grow the potential of the 50 state strategy.
Any 50 state strategy is doomed to fail in these states unless we figure out a way to counter the Conservative Media Machine mainlining propaganda about our party day in and day out. But I’m in favor of the strategy precisely because the Democratic Brand is so toxic in these states.
LOL about Abbott turning Harris County "dark red". The actual voters there don't seem to have gotten the message, since 65% of them voted in the Democratic primary this week.
Even Beto only won Harris County 58-41 in 2018, and that's the high-water mark for Democrats in the recent era. A Democrat who actually got 65% in Harris in a statewide election would most likely win.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-blocks-restrictions-trump-using-military-iran-war-rcna261680
Senate decides to let Iran war continue as is mostly on party lines. Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and John Fetterman (D-PA) voted against their parties.
i'll admit i donated heavily to that man from pa, but in my defense his opponent was dr oz
I will never understand why Pennsylvania Democratic voters chose Fetterman rather than Connor Lamb in the primary.
Because Fetterman ran as a progressive outsider with working-class appeal who would demand real change, and Lamb ran as a centrist establishment type. Seemed a pretty clear choice at the time.
Well, that is the way the corporate media portrayed them, which was in love with the idea of Fetterman as working class because of how he dressed, even though he wasn't working class. Lamb's competency was interpreted as "boring."
He also appears to have become a completely different person after his stroke, so you can be forgiven for thinking he was a progressive. That or he was lying the whole time, in which case all of us were fooled. Either way, his career is 100% over after 2028. We only have to worry about him defecting between now and then.
I think we’re all taking the wrong lessons from Fetterman here when the man literally had a stroke that caused brain damage. I don’t think he was lying, I just think the stroke affected him more than we’d like to admit.
I expect Phil Berger to do everything he can to throw out enough votes to be declared a winner. As people know, he has three nepo babies in office. The first one is Junior, who is an associate justice on the NC Supreme Court (refuses to recuse from any cases involving the GOP). Second one I think works at the Rockingham Co Board of Elections office. Third one is a sheriff.
So, expect shenanigans. I don't know if it will go to federal court like the Griffin v. Riggs case did in 2024.
This is the kind of nepo-machine you’d have expected in 1946 North Carolina not 2026 North Carolina
you get outside the urban and suburban areas and its 1946 effectively, although in 46 more people hated nazis
Well, if Phil is out at the end of this mess, we have our eyes set on Junior. We're going to hang his daddy's nepotism around his neck in two years.
Fun fact; Newark, NJ, the largest city in the State, is having an election next month. All city council seats and the Mayor.
Newark, NJ, a major city, is having an election next month: https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/baraka-draws-seven-opponents-in-newark-mayoral-race-none-of-them-credible/
So the incumbent AR state Senate leader that lost his seat in the primary, is the winner a more moderate (or less crazy) Republican? The incumbent was endorsed by Sarah Huckabee Slanders.
idk the actual answer but these days, I fully expect any Republican incumbent that's ousted in a primary to be less crazy than the person that beat them.
Sam Page on paper is more MAGA than Phil Berger. But unlike Berger, he seems to be open to working with moderates and Democrats on some issues (ie the budget that Berger refuses to pass).
GA Senator Emerson:
Ossoff up 3, 5 and 8 against Carter, Collins and Dooley.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/georgia-2026-poll-senator-ossoff-starts-re-election-near-50-and-outpaces-gop-field/
Graphic for Georgia D Gov primary isn’t loading for me, what’s the full split?
Really hope Esteves can get it going shortly
Good news: crypto backer Ian Calderon has dropped out of CA-Gov race. Former Asm Majority Leader, known mostly for a plastic straw ban that is now wholly ignored across California, never rose above one percent in the polls, hence his nickname I-One Calderon. Still in: Betty Three and Tony Two.
Paul Mitchell's Simulator now has the chance of an R v R election in November at 25.7%. Insane. Thank you Tony and Betty. And Matt. In fact, thank you Xavier and Antonio.
It should dwindle down to just Swalwell, Steyer and Porter.
TX-33 is in Dallas County and thus impacted by the confusion of switching from county wide polling places during early voting to precinct level polling places on Election Day.
Anyone know how the run-off will go as regards to polling places?
Anyone hear what Allred or Johnson has said about the uncounted provisional ballots?
At our Somerville (MA) Democratic Caucus, various candidates for office gave short speeches, including the "some dude" who's running against Ed Markey from the left. What he didn't anticipate is that Sen. Markey himself also gave a speech at our caucus, and a much better one, at that. He was clearly very nervous to have to follow him.
Massachusetts ballot access laws make it hard for minor candidates to get nominated for Statewide office. You need not only 10,000 signatures, but also 15% of the state convention delegates, a threshold he's unlikely to clear with two major candidates competing. (It's within the realm of possibility that Moulton could fail to get 15%, though I think that's unlikely.)
I know Markey is a lifelong Malden resident - is his challenger from Somerville?