Leading Off
TX-23
Brandon Herrera, a far-right “gunfluencer” who came close to defeating Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales for renomination in 2024, is now airing ads attacking the West Texas congressman ahead of their rematch next month. Gonzales’ allies, likewise, are responding with their own commercials portraying Herrera as anti-Trump.
In one new spot, Herrera’s narrator charges that Gonzales “voted with Biden and every Democrat to bring unvetted Afghan Muslims” into the United States after the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021.
Herrera, who is one of the many Texas Republicans who have made Islamophobia a central part of their campaign, also ties Gonzales’ support for making visas more available to Afghans to a high-profile incident in November in which an Afghan national was charged with killing a National Guard member in Washington, D.C.
“Gonzales sponsored legislation to bring them here even faster, and American families paid the price,” says the narrator. “In the March 3 primary, remember: Congressman Tony Gonzales is unfit for duty.”
Meanwhile, an outside group backing Gonzales, a Navy veteran who served in Afghanistan and Iraq before his 2020 election to the 23rd Congressional District, is going on the attack in a similar vein.
“Brandon Herrera totally and completely hates Donald Trump,” insists the narrator for an outfit called the Hispanic Leadership Trust. The ad goes on to play old footage of Herrera pontificating, “Trump will lose the general. … He messed up a lot of stuff.” The commercial goes on to remind the audience that Trump has endorsed Gonzales for another term.
FEC data shows that this group, along with a similarly-named organization called the Hispanic Leadership Alliance, has spent more than $200,000 since last month. There has been no outside spending yet to help Herrera defeat the congressman in this sprawling constituency.
Gonzales also ended last year with more than three times as much money as his rival, though the fundraising news wasn’t entirely positive for the incumbent.
Gonzales, as The Downballot’s House fundraising report roundup shows, had $2.5 million in the bank on Dec. 31, compared to a little over $700,000 for Herrera. The challenger, however, outraised Gonzales $557,000 to $235,000 during the final three months of 2025.
Two other Republicans are also challenging Gonzales: Former Rep. Quico Canseco, who represented a previous version of the 23rd for a single term well over a decade ago, and a logistics manager named Keith Barton. Neither reported raising any money during the most recent quarter, but they could still take enough votes to force Gonzales and Herrera into a runoff on May 26.
Indeed, that very scenario came to pass two years ago, and it almost ended Gonzales’ career.
The congressman led Herrera 45-25 in the five-person GOP primary, which was just a few points below the majority he needed to win renomination outright. The hard-right Herrera, however, came close to closing the gap in the second round of voting, but the well-funded incumbent prevailed 50.6 to 49.4—a margin of just 354 votes.
Gonzales had a considerably easier time in the general election in a constituency that favored Trump 57-42 in 2024, winning in a 62-38 landslide. (The GOP’s new map did not change Trump’s toplines.)
Four Democrats are running this time, but they all trail the leading Republicans by a wide margin financially. Democratic donors, though, may take a second look at this race if Trump’s declining numbers with Hispanic voters give them an opening in districts like the 23rd, which is home to a large Latino electorate.
Election Recaps
MI State Senate
Chedrick Greene, a fire captain in the city of Saginaw, defeated five other candidates to win the Democratic nomination for a pivotal special election to the Michigan State Senate on Tuesday night. He’ll face Republican Jason Tunney on May 5.
Prior to the primary, a mysterious GOP-backed group spent six figures boosting Greene’s chief rival, state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, apparently in the belief that her liberal views would make her more vulnerable in the general election. Though that effort failed, both parties are all but certain to wage intense campaigns to win the 35th District, a Democratic-held seat that, according to calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried by just a 49.7 to 48.9 margin.
Should Democrats prevail, they’ll regain the 20-18 majority they held before the district’s previous occupant, Kristen McDonald Rivet, won election to the U.S. House in 2024. A Republican victory, by contrast, would deadlock the chamber at 19 apiece.
Special Elections
Democrat Diana Moreno overwhelmingly won Tuesday’s three-way special election to replace New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani in New York’s 36th Assembly District. Moreno defeated two fellow members of the Democratic Socialists of America who decided to run as independents after local Democratic leaders nominated Moreno.
Redistricting Roundup
NY Redistricting
A recent ruling by a trial court that New York’s 11th Congressional District violates the state constitution has been automatically stayed following an appeal by Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis.
As a result, the court’s deadline for the state’s redistricting commission to produce a new map by Friday has been suspended, and the commission said this week that it has halted work. Malliotakis, who has represented the 11th since 2021, is appealing both to New York’s intermediate appeals court, known as the Appellate Division, and to its highest court, the Court of Appeals.
UT Redistricting
Utah Republicans have filed a lawsuit asking a federal court to block the implementation of a new congressional map imposed last year by a state judge, relying on a legal theory that the U.S. Supreme Court rejected almost three years ago
That theory, known as the independent state legislature doctrine, rests on a strained reading of the Constitution to argue that only state legislatures—and not state courts, or citizens advancing ballot initiatives—can make changes to federal election procedures, including the drawing of electoral districts.
However, in a closely watched 2023 case known as Moore v. Harper, the Supreme Court shot down that argument, which Republicans advanced after North Carolina’s top court had struck down a GOP-drawn congressional map as an illegal partisan gerrymander under the state constitution.
The Supreme Court did leave open a narrow path for future legal challenges, saying that “state courts may not transgress the ordinary bounds of judicial review such that they arrogate to themselves the power vested in state legislatures to regulate federal elections.”
In their complaint, though, Utah Republicans do not appear to have distinguished their case in any meaningful way from the North Carolina dispute, which involved a similar set of facts.
VA Redistricting
Virginia Democrats have yet to release their proposal for redrawing the state’s congressional map because the House and Senate both “feel the other is advancing maps to elevate members of their own chamber,” Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick reports.
Democrats were reportedly set to publish their map by the end of last month but missed that self-imposed deadline. Mutnick says that a Monday meeting between the leaders of each chamber was scrapped, though she adds that some Democrats believe a compromise might still be reached this week and says many “are optimistic about finding a solution.”
One thing both sides agree on, however, is how far the new districts should push, with broad support for a “10-1” plan, meaning a map that would be likely to elect 10 Democrats and just one Republican. This approach is electorally feasible, as many map-makers have demonstrated, including The Downballot’s Stephen Wolf, who has drawn such a map.
Senate
LA-Sen
Louisiana state Sen. Blake Miguez and St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden each announced Tuesday that they were dropping their campaigns for U.S. Senate. Miguez will instead seek the Republican nomination for the state’s open 5th Congressional District, while Seiden is not running for another office.
Their departures from the Senate race come two weeks after Republican Rep. Julia Letlow, who holds the House seat that Miguez is now running for, kicked off her campaign to deny Sen. Bill Cassidy renomination. (See our LA-05 item below for more on the race to replace Letlow.) Seiden backed Letlow on Tuesday as she exited the race, while Miguez did not take sides.
State Treasurer John Fleming, though, once again said that he would continue his primary campaign against Cassidy. Fleming’s continued presence in the race makes it more difficult for anyone to secure the majority of the vote necessary to win the GOP nomination without a runoff on June 27.
Letlow launched her new effort with Donald Trump’s endorsement, but a pro-Cassidy super PAC is trying to drive a wedge between the congresswoman and GOP voters ahead of the May 16 primary.
“What do Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Julia Letlow have in common?” asks the narrator for the Louisiana Freedom Fund. “Liberal Letlow voted with Biden more than any Louisiana Republican in the U.S. House.”
“Like Nancy Pelosi, Letlow traded hundreds of stocks in Congress,” the commercial continues. “And when she worked at a university, Letlow initiated radical DEI policies.”
The PAC is spending around $900,000 for its opening offensive, according to expenditure reports filed with the FEC. This is the first commercial anyone has aired against Letlow in this race.
The ad debuted shortly after Cassidy commissioned an internal poll that showed Letlow beating him 46-40 in a potential runoff contest. The senator’s campaign, though, argued this survey from Public Opinion Strategies found he would ultimately defeat Letlow “[a]fter we educate voters about the election.”
Governors
GA-Gov
Health care executive Rick Jackson announced Tuesday that he was entering the Republican primary for Georgia’s open governorship, saying he’d put in at least $50 million of his own money to boost his late bid.
Jackson, whom the Atlanta Journal-Constitution identifies as a billionaire, kicked off his campaign by touting himself as a pro-Trump political outsider. Donald Trump himself, however, is supporting Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ bid to replace GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who cannot seek a third term.
Jackson, who has former Speaker Newt Gingrich’s endorsement, faces several other well-connected rivals in the May 19 primary. The Republican field includes Attorney General Chris Carr, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and businessman Clark Dean. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff on June 16.
NM-Gov
Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima said Monday that he would run for New Mexico’s open governorship as an independent rather than continue his long-shot bid for the Democratic nomination. Miyagishima is hoping to succeed Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is termed out.
Miyagishima, who made his announcement one day before the deadline for major-party candidates to submit signatures to get on the ballot, was campaigning as a moderate in his quest for the Democratic nomination. The former mayor, though, raised little money and struggled to stand out in the June 2 primary contest between former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman.
Miyagishima will now have until June 25 to submit more than 14,000 signatures to qualify as an independent.
RI-Gov
State House Speaker Joe Shekarchi finally said on Tuesday that he would not challenge Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee in the Sept. 8 Democratic primary.
Shekarchi, whose announcement brings an end to more than a year of public deliberations that frustrated political observers—the Boston Globe’s Dan McGowen wrote almost a month ago that his “will-he-or-won’t-he act is getting old”—leaves former CVS Helena Foulkes as McKee’s only serious intraparty opponent.
While McKee narrowly fended off Foulkes in their first bout in 2022, the challenger has long looked like the frontrunner for their return engagement. Foulkes ended last year with a $2.8 million to $1.1 million cash advantage over McKee, who has badly trailed her in public polling. A third Democrat, businessman Greg Stevens, reported having all of $435 in the bank.
Republicans are hoping that unhappiness with the status quo will give them an opening in this reliably blue state, but so far they lack a well-funded candidate. Aaron Guckian, a former executive director of the Rhode Island Dental Association, had just over $40,000 on hand at the end of 2025 after one month in the race. No other notable Republicans have announced yet.
House
AZ-01, AZ-SoS
Former Arizona GOP chair Gina Swoboda filed a statement of interest Tuesday with state election authorities for a possible campaign for secretary of state, but she says she hasn’t decided whether to leave the race to represent the swingy 1st Congressional District.
Swoboda, whose tenure as the leader of the state party ended last month, instead tells Axios she’s still “exploring” whether to take on Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes. Swoboda is currently running to succeed GOP Rep. David Schweikert, who is giving up the 1st District to challenge Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.
Swoboda launched her congressional campaign in October with an endorsement from Donald Trump, but far-right figures and groups like the state branch of the Freedom Caucus have been vocal in their displeasure with Trump’s decision. Trump mollified them somewhat last month when he announced he would also support former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely in addition to Swoboda.
Swoboda, though, would face the same set of detractors if she were to switch races. State Rep. Alex Kolodin, a member of the Freedom Caucus, is currently the only notable Republican campaigning in the Aug. 4 primary for the right to take on Fontes.
FL-16
Florida Republicans are still waiting to see whether state Sen. Joe Gruters, who also chairs the Republican National Committee, will run for the open 16th Congressional District, but another member of the Gruters clan may step up if he doesn’t.
Politico’s Kimberly Leonard, relying on an unnamed source, writes that Sydney Gruters, “is being seriously floated to run” if her husband decides not to try to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan.
Sydney Gruters, who is the executive director of the New College of Florida Foundation, does not appear to have said anything publicly about her plans. At the same time, the only word on her husband’s interest came last week, when an RNC spokesperson said, “He’s not running,” but that didn’t silence the chatter.
Other Republicans have also been talked about as potential candidates to replace Buchanan, who announced last week he would not seek reelection to the conservative 16th District, but no major names have stepped up yet.
Leonard mentions Kristen Truong, an official at a lobbying firm, as a possible option. But Truong, who is currently running for a spot in the state House, reportedly says she wouldn’t oppose Joe Gruters.
Leonard also names state Rep. Fiona McFarland and former state Rep. Tommy Gregory as possible options, though neither appears to have commented publicly.
LA-05
State Sen. Blake Miguez picked up the support of the far-right Club for Growth on Tuesday, the same day that he announced he would seek the Republican nomination for Louisiana’s open 5th Congressional District rather than continue to run for the U.S. Senate. (See our LA-Sen item above.)
But while the deep-pocketed Club is a fan of Miguez, a competitive marksman who enjoyed a 2010 stint on the reality TV show “Top Shot,” his would-be constituents may not know much about him.
That’s because Miguez’s legislative district, which is based in Acadiana in the southern part of the state, doesn’t overlap with the 5th Congressional District, which includes northeastern Louisiana and part of the Baton Rouge area. Ironically, NOLA.com’s Tyler Bridges notes that Miguez won his current post in 2023 after raising questions about whether his opponent lived in the Senate district they both wanted to represent.
Miguez’s team, though, argues that the new congressional candidate is anything but an outsider. His campaign tells Bridges that Miguez “has maintained a residence in the 5th Congressional District since 1999 and operated a business location in Baton Rouge for over a decade.” Bridges says, however, that the campaign did not provide further details.
Miguez, though, does have plenty of money to introduce himself to this new electorate. The candidate ended last year with over $3.6 million in the bank for his Senate campaign, with a large portion of that coming from Miguez himself. Federal law allows him to transfer the entire amount to his new congressional campaign.
Miguez joins a busy GOP primary lineup to replace Rep. Julia Letlow. The field includes Louisiana Board of Regents chair Misti Cordell, conservative activist Larry Davis, state Sen. Rick Edmonds, and state Rep. Dixon McMakin.
And the lineup will likely expand ahead of the Feb. 13 candidate filing deadline. State Sen. Stewart Cathey, who filed paperwork with the FEC last month, says he’ll announce his plans next week. Cathey, though, isn’t waiting to attack Miguez, with whom he serves in the legislature’s upper chamber, as a “clown.”
State Rep. Daryl Deshotel, however, announced Tuesday that he’d decided against running himself.
MA-04
Former Wall Street regulator Ihssane Leckey announced Tuesday that she would seek a rematch against Rep. Jake Auchincloss, who defeated her in a packed 2020 Democratic primary for Massachusetts’ safely blue 4th District.
Leckey, an immigrant from Morocco, would be the first Muslim person to represent the Bay State in Congress. Six years ago, she finished in fifth place with 11% of the vote, while Auchincloss took 22% to win the nomination for the seat held by Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy, who had chosen to wage an ultimately unsuccessful campaign for Senate.
Leckey, however, faces another uphill battle against Auchincloss, who ended 2025 with about $6.8 million in the bank.
NJ-12
Sue Altman, a prominent New Jersey progressive who waged a well-funded but unsuccessful campaign to flip the 7th District in 2024, announced Tuesday that she was entering the Democratic primary for the neighboring 12th District to the south.
Altman joins several candidates running to succeed Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, who is not seeking reelection to the safely blue 12th.
Altman made a name for herself as head of the state affiliate of the national Working Families Party, which typically backs progressive Democrats at the ballot box. She became known as an ardent opponent of longtime party boss George Norcross and other members of the old establishment.
She also drew widespread attention in 2019 when state police forcibly removed her from a state Senate hearing concerning corporate tax breaks.
Altman ran for office for the first time last cycle when she challenged GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr., but she lost 52-46 as Donald Trump was narrowly carrying the swingy 7th. Altman, however, quickly secured a new job as the state director for newly elected Sen. Andy Kim, though she stepped down last month ahead of her second congressional bid.
The New Jersey Globe notes that the new candidate grew up in Hunterdon County, which is in Kean’s constituency, and still lives in the 7th. Altman, though, highlighted her time working in the state capital of Trenton, which Watson Coleman represents, to argue she understands the 12th.
“I have spent a lot of time in Trenton; our Working Families offices were in Trenton,” she said. “Heck, I’ve even been arrested in Trenton. How many candidates can say that?”
NY-03
Former Assemblymember Mike LiPetri, a Republican who came unexpectedly close to unseating Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi in 2024, announced Tuesday that he would seek a rematch in New York’s 3rd District on Long Island.
LiPetri begins his second bid with the support of both Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who is the frontrunner to claim the GOP nomination for governor, and county party chair Joseph Cairo.
LiPetri’s most notable intraparty opponent is attorney Greg Hach, who self-funded almost all of the roughly $300,000 he had available at the end of December. Hach also ran in 2024, but he failed to submit enough valid signatures to make the primary ballot.
Suozzi, for his part, had about $4.5 million in his campaign account.
LiPetri, who badly lost the 2020 primary in the old 2nd District to now-Rep. Andrew Garbarino, appeared to have little hope when he decided to take on Suozzi last cycle.
Suozzi, who had long been one of the most prominent politicians in Nassau County in a career full of ups and downs, had just returned to the House after a year-long absence following his decisive win in an intensely watched 2024 special election to succeed the disgraced George Santos.
LiPetri struggled to raise money and didn’t give national Republicans much hope that he could defeat Suozzi in a constituency Joe Biden would have carried 55-44. The challenger, though, came close to proving his skeptics wrong in a year that saw Long Island continue its hard swing to the right. Suozzi fended off LiPetri just 52-48 as Donald Trump was carrying the 3rd 51-47.
TX-02
Rep. Dan Crenshaw is taking to the airwaves to argue that state Rep. Steve Toth, who is challenging him from the right in next month’s Republican primary for Texas’ 2nd Congressional District, is in fact the one who has failed MAGA voters.
“Toth betrayed President Trump’s border mission and voted against funding for the Texas National Guard fighting the invasion,” insists Crenshaw’s narrator. “Conservatives just can’t trust liberal Steve Toth.”
But the incumbent, a Navy SEAL veteran who lost his right eye while serving in Afghanistan, still needs to win the trust of one powerful conservative. Crenshaw is the only Republican in the state’s enormous House delegation who has yet to receive an endorsement from Donald Trump for reelection.
And Toth doesn’t think that Crenshaw, who represents the suburbs north of Houston, deserves a seal of approval from their party’s master. The state representative has criticized Crenshaw for voting to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s unprovoked invasion and highlighted his many clashes with both far-right House members and Tucker Carlson.
Crenshaw, who was recorded last year saying of Carlson, “If I ever meet him, I’ll fucking kill him,” maintains a wide financial advantage over Toth, but his opponent still has the resources to get his message out.
Crenshaw, as The Downballot’s new House fundraising report roundup shows, outraised Toth $550,000 to $147,000 during the final quarter of 2025. The congressman ended December with a $843,000 to $302,000 edge in cash on hand.
A pair of outside groups has also gotten involved, coming down on opposite sides in the primary. Data from the FEC shows that an outfit called Patriotic Fund has spent $225,000 on independent expenditures to support Crenshaw since last month, while an organization known as Alamo Freedom Fighters has deployed a comparable $210,000 to attack the incumbent.
It’s possible as well that the nomination won’t be resolved next month. Two underfunded Republicans are also on the ballot, and while they’re unlikely to secure many votes, they could make it harder for either frontrunner to secure the majority of the vote necessary to avoid a runoff on May 26.
The eventual GOP nominee, though, will be the heavy favorite in a constituency that Trump would have carried 61-38. One well-financed Democrat, however, will test if his party’s shock win in Saturday’s special election for a conservative state Senate seat in Fort Worth can be replicated around Houston.
Businessman Shaun Finnie ended last year with a hefty $1.4 million on hand, with most of that cash coming from the candidate.
Finnie, who faces no intraparty opposition, is arguing that Crenshaw has made a name for himself for all the wrong reasons. Last year, the challenger highlighted a story from Punchbowl News reported that House GOP leaders had temporarily barred Crenshaw from traveling overseas on official business after offending his hosts in Mexico during an “alcohol-related episode.”
“This is nothing short of embarrassing,” Finnie said. “This is a very bad look for the 2nd District of Texas.”
Crenshaw, for his part, dismissed Punchbowl’s story as “clickbait.”
Secretaries of State
MI-SoS
Democratic state Sen. Adam Hollier told the Michigan Chronicle on Monday that he’s dropping his bid for secretary of state and would instead seek another term in the legislature.
The Democratic field still includes Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and former Michigan Lottery Commissioner Suzanna Shkreli. The nomination contest is set to be resolved on April 19 when the party holds what’s known as an endorsement convention.
Poll Pile
MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KAAL-TV, KSTP-TV, and WDIO-DT:
Amy Klobuchar (D): 50, Peggy Bennett (R): 30.
Klobuchar (D): 49, Lisa Demuth (R): 34.
Klobuchar (D): 50, Jeff Johnson (R): 33.
Klobuchar (D): 49, Scott Jensen (R): 35.
Klobuchar (D): 49, Patrick Knight (R): 33.
Klobuchar (D): 49, Brad Kohler (R): 32.
Klobuchar (D): 52, Mike Lindell (R): 32.
Klobuchar (D): 50, Phillip Parrish (R): 32.
Klobuchar (D): 49, Kendall Qualls (R): 33.
Klobuchar (D): 48, Kristin Robbins (R): 33.
NY-Gov: Siena University: Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 54, Bruce Blakeman (R): 28 (Dec.: 50-25 Hochul).
NY-Gov (D): Siena: Hochul (inc): 64, Antonio Delgado: 11 (Dec.: 56-13 Hochul).
Editor’s Note: The previous Digest incorrectly described the Republican primary runoff results of Public Opinion Strategies’ poll for Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy. The poll shows Julia Letlow ahead 46-40, not Cassidy.
I love the polling for Klobuchar defeating every opponent by double digits. Hoping it’ll be Demuth after the chaos she instigated in Minneapolis last month.
Supreme Court won't stop the CA redistricting https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/020426zr_3eb4.pdf