Even if they can't win always support the candidate that stands up to this fucking nightmare that has developed in our country. Cassidy has been a key vote for some of the worst decisions made this past year.
So yes, he _was_ willing to vote to remove Trump from office, once. No longer. But I take your point. I had forgotten that LA no longer had jungle primaries.
The jungle general election makes it harder for a leading Democratic candidate to emerge, not solely because LA since 2014 has become a difficult state for Democrats to win statewide.
Cassidy is saner by contrast to his GOP challengers but he’s awful on healthcare. I call him and Mike Crapo Bill Cassidy and the Crapo Kid for their recent atrocious, draconian healthcare bill.
With the exception of Bill Hathaway serving one term in the 1970s (before being defeated by Bill Cohen, the predecessor of Collins and Defense secretary), this potential flip could be the first time the seat goes blue since *1913* - before the Senate was directly elected!
I wonder if she's just gotten complacent and overconfident?
Due to the RCV rules her 2020 win looks wider than it is. She probably won by ~5-6 points in practice, but on paper she had a 9 point win. Problem is, discussion of the results center on that 9 point margin. She won easily in 2014 and 2008 and 2002.
It wouldn't strike mas that odd if she concluded that she's (a) in her mid 70s and doesn't want to try anymore, (b) has won repeatedly no matter what, (c) wasn't punished at all for any of her deeply conservatively aligning votes, and (d) didn't properly internalize how close 2020 was, even if the close win was still an unambiguous win.
That's a recipe for a candidate doing what she wants and counting on the flawed democratic field to see her to victory where she can continue to not care.
I remember 2008. Susan Collins won easily, while Republicans couldn’t even get a candidate in Arkansas and ran a sacrificial lamb in WV. Doesn’t even seem like that long ago
Depends on whether there’s enough time for an alternative to jump in. I think people are underestimating how damaging much of Platner’s past would be in a primary even if electability concern against Collins was no longer a factor. Most voters don’t tune into primaries or general elections until like a month or two out.
Is there any evidence of him gaining undecided voters right now outside of polls aligned with his campaign? I don’t deny that his base is fervent and probably immovable. I just doubt it’s as large as his paid media game is making it out to be. His campaign is spending a lot of money on online marketing to in turn drive up his money. It works among online people. I don’t know that it’ll work great on the voters over the age of 50 who will make up the bulk of the primary who are not on Reddit. Those voters are the types who get their news from traditional media and tv/radio. The ad campaign about his past has not yet begun. Maybe Mills trusts her own internal polls enough to think she’s in a comfortable enough position that she doesn’t need to go negative on him yet.
Second tier governor candidates that aren't gaining traction would look at switching. Bellows, Jackson, and Pingree all could see an easy escape hatch to a more winnable primary. If more than one jumps ship, chances are that secures the primary for either Platner or Mills, depending on what the exact voter thinking is.
Note: King would also benefit from switching, except for his name. I think due to his father being the other senator he'd recognize that senate is a dead-end option for him and will stay put no matter what.
jackson and platner already endorsed each other and often appear at the same rallies, one of which I had the privilege of attending---pre tattoo controversy. I still believe troy jackson is the best choice for governor.
I posted about it upthread, but yes, I don’t see how this isn’t a likely killer in a Harris +7 state. The midterm electorate will probably be even bluer. I thought she was supposed to be one of the few smart Republicans, at least from a strategic sense? I really don’t know how we keep getting so lucky with things like this.
Zack Donnini made a strong assessment about Hispanic voter sentiment and how it shifts from one election cycle to another. Certainly, at least for the midterms this November, this should give Democrats benefit.
But as the article has observed, Hispanic voter turnout does not always favor Democrats. The party needs to do more than wait until it learns the hard way to focus on the bread and butter issues, which Hispanic voters care about.
I think it was totally due to the fact that everyone thought Hillary would win in 2016, so swing voters were ok voting for the GOP downballot as a "check," whereas 2024 was thought to be comepetitive by most til the end.
Wikipedia says that it's conservative but not fake news.
"The Free Beacon has broken stories about states using racial preferences in rationing COVID-19 drugs, exposed Columbia Law School's plans to evade the banning of consideration of race in admissions, and uncovered Yale administrators' bullying of a student, which led to personnel changes at the school.[3] The Free Beacon also reported on plagiarism accusations against Harvard President Claudine Gay, who resigned shortly thereafter. The Washington Post called Gay's resignation "a major win" for the Free Beacon, which it called "the rare conservative media outlet that does significant reporting of its own."[4] The website's reporting on a number of senior administrators at Columbia University exchanging text messages it considers antisemitic led three deans to resign.[5]"
Right, my reaction was “and? So what?” Every family has family stories that are shared through the generations. Politicians incorporating them into their background or using it to make a rhetorical point are pretty big nothingburgers.
They are notorious for selectively omitting facts and occasional outright fabrication. No one should trust a word that they say unless verified by other media. This reflects very poorly.
I question where you get some of your news sources if you are citing trash like the Free Beacon or media that refers to MGP as Marie “Internmentkamp” Perez.
I love the polling for Klobuchar defeating every opponent by double digits. Hoping it’ll be Demuth after the chaos she instigated in Minneapolis last month.
It would be nice to see Lisa Demuth lose considering she admitted to helping coerce Nick Shirley to make the video that ultimately resulted in further ICE interference.
I think this may have been part of why Dems went along and voted for the commission back in 2019. There was fear that the state court would strike down a Dem gerrymander anyway since the majority was confirmed by GOP legislatures. Having a commission would have been insurance against GOP taking control again in a redistricting year (they took the governor and HOD in 2021).
Sure...but in this case they were absolutely correct to do so. Because if they hadn't then the Republican legislature would have gotten to draw the maps for this decade
How would redistricting likely have gone if a commission wasn't established? A deadlock between the Republican House and Democratic Senate, sending it to the courts?
Yes, this happened in 2011, when the chambers were also split. The U.S. House delegation drew its own map, the GOP House of Delegates drew theirs and the Dem State Senate drew theirs. The problem was Dem Senate incumbents had an incorrect sense of how sturdy their personal brands were and the shifting coalitions, so "safe" Dems like Rosecoe Reynolds and Edd Houck lost, while Creigh Deeds kept more of Charlottesville than he needed.
Actually Dems would have this time due to winning the legislature in 2019 and holding the governorship. The fear was that the state SC would strike down an aggressive Dem gerrymander anyway.
Remember that especially in 2019, this state was not anywhere near safely blue (still isn’t). Having a commission would have taken potential Republican control of the process in the future if they won a trifecta off the table.
Republicans gerrymander the hell out of states much more competitive than Virginia and usually get away with it. This type of play-it-safe attitude needs to be excised from the party’s mindset.
I was looking through the fundraising numbers and got curious about the MD-6 race between McClain Delaney and Trone. Trone has raised $0, entirely self-funding his campaign so far. He's given himself $5.4M. Seems like he *really* wants that seat back.
He definitely does, but the infuriating/gross thing is that $5.4 million is nothing to someone like him. He could drop four times that and not bat an eye.
I wouldn't be surprised, but Bezos has an incentive to keep the WaPo going at least until the next Dem Administration which will likely Eye of Sauron the soft underbellies of our disgraceful oligarchs.
By the way I canceled my WaPo subscription and you all should too. Invest your money elsewhere.
So in Salt Lake City's new district, McAdams has outraised everyone else and Bernie bro Nate Blouin seems to be the only other viable candidate.
In Iowa's Senate race, Nathan Sage’s position appears untenable. He's spent roughly twice what he's raised, has little cash on hand, and all signs point to an impending dropout. If I had to bet, I'd say he endorses Josh Turek—who's backed by the national establishment—rather than Wahls, who's is the state establishment, likely as a play for future goodwill.
It’s a pretty left-leaning district, at least from what people who live there say. Bernie cleaned up there both times. The latest bit of wishful cope from WelcomePAC and Yglesias is that Ben McAdams would be “useful” for a future statewide run a decade or more down the line, while Blouin is a "spoiled socialist" brat and would supposedly be controlled by “the (progressive) groups.” They are also lying in the fundraising emails that it's a swing district, it's dark blue. It's also majority irreligious and not Mormon.
SLC proper is basically a slightly more conservative and considerably more boring Denver, politically, in terms of its vibe, culture and aesthetic. Obviously part of its sleepy cultural/nightlife scene is downwind of the state it’s in, probably more so than any other liberal city in a conservative state
I've known Nate on social media for years, and he's the real deal. Utah Dems are much better on climate change than, for example, small state Midwestern Dems. MW Dems are likely to shy away from climate while steadfast on things like reproductive rights; Utah is probably the only state where they'd rather talk climate than even really normie-Dem cultural issues. Looking forward to chatting with Nate.
No
Even if they can't win always support the candidate that stands up to this fucking nightmare that has developed in our country. Cassidy has been a key vote for some of the worst decisions made this past year.
So yes, he _was_ willing to vote to remove Trump from office, once. No longer. But I take your point. I had forgotten that LA no longer had jungle primaries.
The jungle general election makes it harder for a leading Democratic candidate to emerge, not solely because LA since 2014 has become a difficult state for Democrats to win statewide.
Cassidy is saner by contrast to his GOP challengers but he’s awful on healthcare. I call him and Mike Crapo Bill Cassidy and the Crapo Kid for their recent atrocious, draconian healthcare bill.
No more jungle election this year
If Republicans are only up 2 points on the generic ballot in Texas, Paxton would lose that Senate race.
And Darrell Issa being unseated truly will be monumental to see.
We don’t deserve this wonderful woman.
I wouldn't be surprised if she retired
With the exception of Bill Hathaway serving one term in the 1970s (before being defeated by Bill Cohen, the predecessor of Collins and Defense secretary), this potential flip could be the first time the seat goes blue since *1913* - before the Senate was directly elected!
Could you imagine if the current crop of govs got to pick the senators? Lord have mercy
She did just raise $2 mil. Not outstanding but not "hang up the spurs" either
I wonder if she's just gotten complacent and overconfident?
Due to the RCV rules her 2020 win looks wider than it is. She probably won by ~5-6 points in practice, but on paper she had a 9 point win. Problem is, discussion of the results center on that 9 point margin. She won easily in 2014 and 2008 and 2002.
It wouldn't strike mas that odd if she concluded that she's (a) in her mid 70s and doesn't want to try anymore, (b) has won repeatedly no matter what, (c) wasn't punished at all for any of her deeply conservatively aligning votes, and (d) didn't properly internalize how close 2020 was, even if the close win was still an unambiguous win.
That's a recipe for a candidate doing what she wants and counting on the flawed democratic field to see her to victory where she can continue to not care.
I remember 2008. Susan Collins won easily, while Republicans couldn’t even get a candidate in Arkansas and ran a sacrificial lamb in WV. Doesn’t even seem like that long ago
Maybe. I wonder how that would shake up the primary in our side?
Depends on whether there’s enough time for an alternative to jump in. I think people are underestimating how damaging much of Platner’s past would be in a primary even if electability concern against Collins was no longer a factor. Most voters don’t tune into primaries or general elections until like a month or two out.
Is there any evidence of him gaining undecided voters right now outside of polls aligned with his campaign? I don’t deny that his base is fervent and probably immovable. I just doubt it’s as large as his paid media game is making it out to be. His campaign is spending a lot of money on online marketing to in turn drive up his money. It works among online people. I don’t know that it’ll work great on the voters over the age of 50 who will make up the bulk of the primary who are not on Reddit. Those voters are the types who get their news from traditional media and tv/radio. The ad campaign about his past has not yet begun. Maybe Mills trusts her own internal polls enough to think she’s in a comfortable enough position that she doesn’t need to go negative on him yet.
Not sure who the "big names" would be. It's Maine. Maybe Troy Jackson? But that's it
Yikes, that would make me vote for Platner LOL
Quite possibly.
Second tier governor candidates that aren't gaining traction would look at switching. Bellows, Jackson, and Pingree all could see an easy escape hatch to a more winnable primary. If more than one jumps ship, chances are that secures the primary for either Platner or Mills, depending on what the exact voter thinking is.
Note: King would also benefit from switching, except for his name. I think due to his father being the other senator he'd recognize that senate is a dead-end option for him and will stay put no matter what.
jackson and platner already endorsed each other and often appear at the same rallies, one of which I had the privilege of attending---pre tattoo controversy. I still believe troy jackson is the best choice for governor.
I do too. I sadly don’t think he’ll win that primary, his polling has been atrocious.
The filing deadline hasn't passed yet; it's in about 5 weeks. We'll know for sure by then.
Exactly what I was thinking. This points to a potential retirement in my mind.
Dare to dream! Maybe she'll see some polling that will push her to do so...
It's pretty close to the primary for Collins to retire. Do you think if she does, MGP will sponsor a censure resolution for her?
Oh, right, forgot--her cheap shots are only for liberal Democrats.
If they were in the same chamber, perhaps.
Ha! Not in a million years. Remember, Collins has that R next to her name, which is kryptonite to MGP's criticisms.
I posted about it upthread, but yes, I don’t see how this isn’t a likely killer in a Harris +7 state. The midterm electorate will probably be even bluer. I thought she was supposed to be one of the few smart Republicans, at least from a strategic sense? I really don’t know how we keep getting so lucky with things like this.
never underestimate the power of susan collins hanging on, that said this is fantastic
It's a pity that photo is from the side. Are there no front-facing photos to use for ads?
This is an excellent, well-argued, and nuanced article. Thank you for posting it
Good read.
Zack Donnini made a strong assessment about Hispanic voter sentiment and how it shifts from one election cycle to another. Certainly, at least for the midterms this November, this should give Democrats benefit.
But as the article has observed, Hispanic voter turnout does not always favor Democrats. The party needs to do more than wait until it learns the hard way to focus on the bread and butter issues, which Hispanic voters care about.
Also, Democrats picked up more House seats in 2024 vs. 2016.
I think it was totally due to the fact that everyone thought Hillary would win in 2016, so swing voters were ok voting for the GOP downballot as a "check," whereas 2024 was thought to be comepetitive by most til the end.
True. I think the Democratic Party machine back in 2024 was in better shape than in 2016.
While Democrats search for their identity, the mission should be abundantly clear:
Win elections
Win elections
AND
Win more elections.
Google the source.
Wikipedia says that it's conservative but not fake news.
"The Free Beacon has broken stories about states using racial preferences in rationing COVID-19 drugs, exposed Columbia Law School's plans to evade the banning of consideration of race in admissions, and uncovered Yale administrators' bullying of a student, which led to personnel changes at the school.[3] The Free Beacon also reported on plagiarism accusations against Harvard President Claudine Gay, who resigned shortly thereafter. The Washington Post called Gay's resignation "a major win" for the Free Beacon, which it called "the rare conservative media outlet that does significant reporting of its own."[4] The website's reporting on a number of senior administrators at Columbia University exchanging text messages it considers antisemitic led three deans to resign.[5]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Washington_Free_Beacon
https://adfontesmedia.com/washington-free-beacon-bias-and-reliability/
Yeah. Free Beacon is as partisan as BizPac.
Washington Free Beacon of Bullshit in other words.
Who cares really? Even if true, I don't see it hurting much.
Right, my reaction was “and? So what?” Every family has family stories that are shared through the generations. Politicians incorporating them into their background or using it to make a rhetorical point are pretty big nothingburgers.
Take the "Free Beacon" crap somewhere else.
They are notorious for selectively omitting facts and occasional outright fabrication. No one should trust a word that they say unless verified by other media. This reflects very poorly.
I question where you get some of your news sources if you are citing trash like the Free Beacon or media that refers to MGP as Marie “Internmentkamp” Perez.
We expect people to use better judgment in deciding what sources to share on this site. The Free Beacon does not rate.
Ok, I did not know that. I'll not use right wing sources from now on.
I love the polling for Klobuchar defeating every opponent by double digits. Hoping it’ll be Demuth after the chaos she instigated in Minneapolis last month.
I want it to be Mike Pillow just for the lolz.
It would be nice to see Lisa Demuth lose considering she admitted to helping coerce Nick Shirley to make the video that ultimately resulted in further ICE interference.
Anything to help the turnout for Democrats.
It would also be great if Lindell ran for POTUS in 2028.
Susan Collins held a MAGA hat in hand at the Oval Office yesterday.
<Insert pointed finger emoticon. Not index finger…>
Are there pictures?
It was televised so I imagine so
Yes sir!
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2018845979420582147
That is a brutal unforced error by her and we should be all over it...
Hey Virginia how about you make sure you win that appeal first ! Still haven’t heard on this which has me nervous 😡
I think this may have been part of why Dems went along and voted for the commission back in 2019. There was fear that the state court would strike down a Dem gerrymander anyway since the majority was confirmed by GOP legislatures. Having a commission would have been insurance against GOP taking control again in a redistricting year (they took the governor and HOD in 2021).
Sounds about right. Democrats fearing to use their newfound power while Republicans play by a different set of rules.
Sure...but in this case they were absolutely correct to do so. Because if they hadn't then the Republican legislature would have gotten to draw the maps for this decade
No they weren’t? Democrats held the state senate all throughout the Youngkin years.
Oh you're right! My bad!
How would redistricting likely have gone if a commission wasn't established? A deadlock between the Republican House and Democratic Senate, sending it to the courts?
Yes, this happened in 2011, when the chambers were also split. The U.S. House delegation drew its own map, the GOP House of Delegates drew theirs and the Dem State Senate drew theirs. The problem was Dem Senate incumbents had an incorrect sense of how sturdy their personal brands were and the shifting coalitions, so "safe" Dems like Rosecoe Reynolds and Edd Houck lost, while Creigh Deeds kept more of Charlottesville than he needed.
Actually Dems would have this time due to winning the legislature in 2019 and holding the governorship. The fear was that the state SC would strike down an aggressive Dem gerrymander anyway.
Remember that especially in 2019, this state was not anywhere near safely blue (still isn’t). Having a commission would have taken potential Republican control of the process in the future if they won a trifecta off the table.
Republicans gerrymander the hell out of states much more competitive than Virginia and usually get away with it. This type of play-it-safe attitude needs to be excised from the party’s mindset.
Because they’ve got state Supreme Courts that will back them up (see NC and GA).
Thanks for the feedback ! So what’s your prediction on the appeal ?
"The Last Ride of Big Bad John
John Cornyn is a modern master of the Senate. That may be the political kiss of death."
https://archive.ph/x6XM4
TexasMonthly profile on Cornyn, Paxton and the 2026 Texas Senate race
It's a good read.
Still hope Cornyn AND Paxton lose.
I was looking through the fundraising numbers and got curious about the MD-6 race between McClain Delaney and Trone. Trone has raised $0, entirely self-funding his campaign so far. He's given himself $5.4M. Seems like he *really* wants that seat back.
He definitely does, but the infuriating/gross thing is that $5.4 million is nothing to someone like him. He could drop four times that and not bat an eye.
I wouldn't be surprised if he did.
Are there any successful campaigns people remember that were entirely self-funded?
Frank Lautenberg and Rick Scott are two that come to mind.
if only senator scott was more like world war II hero senator lautenberg
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.
that was 100% self-funded!?
I’d say more than 90 percent from what I know.
Donald Trump! (jk)
thanks you actually made me snort at my desk
Do you think that WaPo will eventually have to close shop?
I wouldn't be surprised, but Bezos has an incentive to keep the WaPo going at least until the next Dem Administration which will likely Eye of Sauron the soft underbellies of our disgraceful oligarchs.
By the way I canceled my WaPo subscription and you all should too. Invest your money elsewhere.
I canceled mine back in 2023.
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-4q-2025-senate-and?
So in Salt Lake City's new district, McAdams has outraised everyone else and Bernie bro Nate Blouin seems to be the only other viable candidate.
In Iowa's Senate race, Nathan Sage’s position appears untenable. He's spent roughly twice what he's raised, has little cash on hand, and all signs point to an impending dropout. If I had to bet, I'd say he endorses Josh Turek—who's backed by the national establishment—rather than Wahls, who's is the state establishment, likely as a play for future goodwill.
I mean, I’d rather have Blouin than anti-abortion McAdams. Do also note the involvement of PACs like WelcomePAC here.
Also isn’t Salt Lake City pretty lefty?
It’s a pretty left-leaning district, at least from what people who live there say. Bernie cleaned up there both times. The latest bit of wishful cope from WelcomePAC and Yglesias is that Ben McAdams would be “useful” for a future statewide run a decade or more down the line, while Blouin is a "spoiled socialist" brat and would supposedly be controlled by “the (progressive) groups.” They are also lying in the fundraising emails that it's a swing district, it's dark blue. It's also majority irreligious and not Mormon.
Note: Blouin is not a socialist.
Unsurprising. It being a Bernie district in this environment is a good sign for Blouin though.
Typical of those types - a hypothetical race 10-15 years from now, instead of a house majority this time next year.
SLC proper is basically a slightly more conservative and considerably more boring Denver, politically, in terms of its vibe, culture and aesthetic. Obviously part of its sleepy cultural/nightlife scene is downwind of the state it’s in, probably more so than any other liberal city in a conservative state
SLC sure is liberal. Notoriously anti-war Rocky Anderson served for years as Mayor back in the 2000’s.
I've known Nate on social media for years, and he's the real deal. Utah Dems are much better on climate change than, for example, small state Midwestern Dems. MW Dems are likely to shy away from climate while steadfast on things like reproductive rights; Utah is probably the only state where they'd rather talk climate than even really normie-Dem cultural issues. Looking forward to chatting with Nate.
Turek has a considerable amount of state establishment support. About as much as Wahls. Tom Miller and a number of state legislators have backed him.
MD-05:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/us/politics/harry-dunn-maryland-house.html
Harry Dunn, Jan 6 cop and MD-03 candidate last time, is in.
We should elect him to Congress this time especially with the Trump Regime wanting to see their own Munich Beer Hall Putsch from start to finish.
AIPAC will spend huge in this primary, MMW. They might break Bowman and Bush's records.
Who will be their favored candidate?
Adrian Boafo, Steny Hoyer's chosen successor.