Morning Digest: New independent poll shows voters approving California remap

And why the received wisdom about ballot measure polling might be wrong

Commercial to promote California’s redistricting ballot measure (credit: Yes on 50 ad)

Leading Off

CA Redistricting

Emerson College finds that a 51-34 majority of California voters support the Democratic-backed ballot measure to replace the state's current congressional map with a new one aimed at countering the GOP's newly passed gerrymander in Texas.

Morning Digest: Responding to Texas, California Democrats release new map targeting GOP seats

But while most campaigns would love to have a 17-point lead with less than two months to go before an expensive election, not everyone thinks that Gov. Gavin Newsom and his allies are in good shape going into the Nov. 4 vote.

"The rule of thumb with these ballot initiatives is that they only get worse with time. And we’ve seen that poll over poll," Punchbowl News' Jake Sherman tweeted. "This is where he’d want to be closer to Election Day, so to speak. And this has Dems quite spooked."

It has long been conventional wisdom that for a ballot measure to pass, it needs to start the campaign with a large majority of voters already in favor of the proposal. As Decision Desk HQ's Geoffrey Skelley explains, "[The] ​​thing with propositions is that support for them doesn’t usually increase much, and undecideds mostly end up opposing."

That's only a rule of thumb, however, not an iron law of politics. And the highly unusual nature of this fall's special election for the proposal, which will be identified as Proposition 50 on the ballot, may confound the conventional wisdom.

While ballot measures are usually overshadowed by higher-profile contests, such as presidential elections or gubernatorial campaigns, this question will be the Golden State's main event.

Until lawmakers placed Proposition 50 on the ballot last month in response to Texas' new gerrymander, the only reason Californians had to show up at the polls was to cast votes for some relatively small county and municipal elections taking place in just part of the state.

But because almost everyone who fills out a ballot this fall will do so specifically because of Proposition 50, voters may be more likely to form an opinion relatively early. Those dynamics might leave fewer persuadable voters than usual to be fought over in the final weeks of the campaign.

Other polls have also generally shown the plan passing, though the question wording has varied dramatically.

Emerson's question closely mirrors the text that voters will see on their ballots, which gives the title for Proposition 50 as "Authorizes Temporary Changes to Congressional District Maps in Response to Texas' Partisan Redistricting."

Similarly, the school asks, "In November 2025, there will be an election for Proposition 50, which authorizes temporary changes to California's congressional district maps in response to Texas' partisan redistricting. If the election for Proposition 50 were held today, would you vote yes or no?"

Emerson's wording adheres more closely to the actual ballot language than that of other pollsters, in part because it's the first independent outfit to go into the field since the legislature voted to put the measure before voters.

Both sides have already spent huge sums in the hopes of coming out on top in this high-stakes race. The New York Times, citing data from AdImpact, reports that the "no" side has outspent the "yes" side $10 million to $8 million on advertising so far.

The contest is likely to grow far more expensive over the final six weeks of the campaign. Major pro-Democratic backers, including billionaire philanthropist George Soros, labor groups, and the House Majority PAC, have contributed heavily to the effort.

The main donor for the "no" side remains wealthy conservative activist Charles Munger, who has contributed $30 million so far. National Republican groups like the Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP's main super PAC in House races, have also helped bankroll the effort to defeat Proposition 50.

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Redistricting Roundup

NH Redistricting

In response to a Politico report that the White House is trying to pressure New Hampshire Republicans into redrawing their state's congressional map, GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte had a one-word response that Donald Trump is unaccustomed to hearing: "No."

In an interview with WMUR's Adam Sexton, Ayotte once again said that she objected to the timing of the proposal.

"We're in the middle of the census. I don't think the timing is right for redistricting," she said. "And as I look at where we are and the things we should be focusing on, this is not something that I support doing at this point in the middle of the census."

When asked by Sexton whether there was "a possibility you could change your mind," Ayotte simply said, "No." Sexton followed up by asking the governor for her reaction to Politico's reporting that "the White House is prepared to use a take-no-prisoners approach."

"Well, listen, I react to the people of New Hampshire. And as I get up every day, the thing that they're talking to me about is not redistricting. They're talking to me about housing, child care, keeping our streets safe, energy costs," Ayotte said. "And I think there are a lot of other priorities we can be working on in Concord."

Senate

NC-Sen

Harper Polling (R) for the Carolina Journal: Roy Cooper (D): 46, Michael Whatley (R): 42 (Aug.: 47-39 Cooper). The Carolina Journal is a conservative publication.

TX-Sen, TX-AG

Democratic Rep. ​Jasmine Crockett tells the Houston Chronicle the only statewide post she's interested in seeking is Texas' U.S. Senate seat, a statement that takes her out of contention for attorney general.

Governors

CA-Gov

A new poll from Emerson College shows Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla in fourth place as he considers whether to make a late entry into the already packed top-two primary for governor of California.

The school tests matchups with and without Padilla as an option, but it shows the same three candidates each earning the same percentage of support in both scenarios. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter leads with 16%, while former Fox host Steve Hilton edges out Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a fellow Republican, 10-8 for second place.

Former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, another Democrat, takes fourth place with 5% when Emerson first asks respondents how they'd vote in a field that doesn't include Padilla. The senator debuts with 7% when the school includes him as an option, while Becerra slips to seventh place with 3%—and as noted, the top three candidates' vote shares don't shift at all.

This is the first survey we've seen of the gubernatorial race that features Padilla, who has indicated he won't decide until after the Nov. 4 election to pass a new congressional map.

OH-Gov

Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel announced on Friday that he would not enter next year's GOP primary for Ohio's open governorship.

The lieutenant governor was the only notable Republican still publicly contemplating whether to take on businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who posted a huge 77-17 lead over Tressel in an April poll. Ramaswamy, who has Donald Trump's support, now has no intraparty opposition in sight ahead of what everyone once expected would be a busy and expensive primary.

Former state health director Amy Acton, by contrast, is still waiting to see whether former Rep. Tim Ryan will join her in the Democratic primary. Ryan's team said last month he would make up his mind by Sept. 30.

OK-Gov

One of the more bizarre stories of the year seems to have wrapped up with an extremely 2025 headline: "Oklahoma County sheriff confirms Jackie Chan movie as the cause of Walters' TV incident."

So says the Oklahoma Voice, which explains how nudity that appeared on a television in the office of state schools chief Ryan Walters during a meeting came from a little-known 1985 film starring the martial arts legend called "The Protector."

According to Oklahoma County Sheriff Tommie Johnson, Walters' TV had been tuned to Samsung’s "Movie Hub Action" channel and began playing the movie. Johnson described the incident as "truly, purely an accident," and District Attorney Vicki Behenna said she would not press charges.

Walters, a far-right Republican, has been considering a bid for Oklahoma's open governorship and previously said he would decide this summer. With the season officially coming to an end on Monday, though, it seems that his plans got crane-kicked.

TX-Gov

Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa is "strongly considering all her options for how to serve Texas," an unnamed source told the Houston Chronicle after the lawmaker registered domain names like "gina4governor." Hinojosa does not appear to have said anything publicly about her interest in challenging Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

Former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg is apparently also eyeing the race, though it's not the only office he's considering. The San Antonio Express-News recently reported that Nirenberg has formed a fundraising committee that could fund either a bid for governor or a campaign for Bexar County judge.

The latter post, which is executive rather than judicial, is currently held by Peter Sakai, a fellow Democrat. Nirenberg seemed to rule out challenging Sakai in January when he told the paper, "I have no interest in the county judge position," though speculation about his plans continues more than half a year later.

House

IA-02

Former Rep. Rod Blum launched a comeback on Thursday for Iowa's 2nd District, an open seat in the northeastern part of the state that includes most of the turf he represented from 2015 to 2019.

Blum also said he would throw down $250,000 of his own money as he runs to succeed Rep. Ashley Hinson, a fellow Republican who is leaving to campaign for the Senate.

Blum arrived in Congress after unexpectedly flipping a previous version of this constituency, which was then numbered the 1st District, during the 2014 red wave. The new congressman, though, immediately made enemies within his own party—he even voted against John Boehner in the speakership election—and he looked like the underdog to hold what had been a Democratic-leaning seat during his first reelection campaign.

Donald Trump's huge gains in Iowa, however, instead helped him secure a second term. But Blum, who drew attention in 2017 by storming out of an interview while surrounded by a group of schoolkids, struggled the next year to convince skeptics that he could win again.

Well-funded GOP groups largely left him to fend for himself in 2018 against Democrat Abby Finkenauer and her allies as Republicans concentrated on more winnable races. It was only in the final weeks of the campaign that GOP groups began spending real money to defend Blum's seat, but it was too late to save him from a 51-46 defeat.

The now-former congressman soon signaled that he wanted a rematch, but party leaders had already moved on to recruiting Hinson. Blum sat out the race, while Hinson went on to narrowly unseat Finkenauer in 2020.

Blum joins state Sen. Charlie McClintock and former state Rep. Joe Mitchell in next year's primary. Trump carried the 2nd District 54-44, but a trio of Democratic candidates believe it's winnable: Retired Army nurse Kathryn Dolter, state Rep. Lindsay James, and pastor Clint Twedt-Ball are all running.

IA-03

State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst has released a new survey from Public Policy Polling showing her tied at 44 apiece with Republican Rep. Zach Nunn in next year's election for Iowa's competitive 3rd District. The poll does not mention Konfrst's opponent in the Democratic primary, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.

NM-02

Marine veteran and retired police officer Greg Cunningham is gearing up to challenge Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez in New Mexico's 2nd District, reports Punchbowl's Ally Mutnick.

Cunningham previously waged two unsuccessful bids for office, losing to Democratic state Rep. Joy Garratt 53-47 in 2022 and then 54-46 two years later.

Despite representing a district that Donald Trump won 50-48 last year, Vasquez has drawn only minor opposition so far, though a trio of GOP lawmakers are reportedly considering.

Mayors & County Leaders

Harris County, TX Judge

Former Rep. Erica Lee Carter said Wednesday that she's decided not to run to succeed retiring Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, a fellow Democrat, as leader of the largest county in Texas. The main Democratic candidates for this post are former Houston Mayor Annise Parker and former Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer.