Morning Digest: Trump just got two congressmen to give up their dreams of higher office

The upside for the GOP, however, may not be as great as Republicans hope

Leading Off

NY-Gov, MI-Sen

Donald Trump and the GOP establishment have successfully pressured two vulnerable Republican congressmen to abandon their dreams of winning higher office as the party aims to preserve its narrow majority in the House.

In separate developments on Wednesday, New York Rep. Mike Lawler announced he'd run for reelection rather than challenge Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, while Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga said he would not join the race for his state's open Senate seat. Huizenga was less clear, however, about whether he'd seek another term in the lower chamber.

Republicans were anxious to keep the two from running statewide because both represent districts that could flip next year (and would be more likely to do so as open seats), and both would have also set up high-stakes primary clashes had they sought promotions.

Lawler had long been interested in a bid for New York's top executive office. In a revealing video he sent to a political roast held last year by a group of reporters, he concluded, "In all seriousness, I wish I could have been with you in person and shared some laughs, but we'll have plenty of time for that when I'm governor in a couple of years."

In a couple of years, his best-case scenario is now "third-term member of Congress"—and even that is far from assured.

Lawler's 17th District in the Hudson Valley is one of just three Republican-held seats nationwide that Kamala Harris won last year, and a huge crowd of credible Democratic candidates has already piled into the race to defeat him. Lawler is well-funded, but several of his challengers have already raised sizable sums, and Democrats won't hesitate to spend whatever it takes to oust him.

Had Lawler forged ahead with his gubernatorial aims, he would have almost certainly run headlong into fellow Rep. Elise Stefanik, who's repeatedly telegraphed her interest in taking on Hochul ever since Trump yanked her nomination to serve as his ambassador to the U.N. Limited polling showed Stefanik beating—and in some cases crushing—Lawler in a hypothetical primary.

Hoping to forestall such a clash and avoid an open House seat, Trump endorsed Lawler in May … for reelection—a sentiment that Stefanik disingenuously echoed. Through what must have been gritted teeth, the congressman responded that he was "grateful" for Trump's support.

But in a statement he released on Wednesday, Lawler didn't mention Trump at all and instead threw shade at his unrealized rival.

"While I fundamentally believe I am best positioned to take on Kathy Hochul and offer New Yorkers a real choice for Governor, I have made the decision to run for re-election to the House and continue the important work I've been doing over the past two and a half years," he said.

Stefanik responded by promising "a final decision and announcement after this year's November election." She could, however, still face opposition in the primary from Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who's also waiting until November—because he's on the ballot in a potentially competitive battle for reelection. (Hochul is also contending with a primary challenge from her own lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado.)

Lawler, for his part, reacted to Stefanik's timeline by telling News 12 that such a long wait "does the party a disservice."

"Elise owes it to the party, she owes it to the people of the state, to run," he continued. "She says she'll make a decision in November. I don't, frankly, think she can wait that long. I think she needs to jump in and really start the race."

Republican fears about Huizenga were similar to those they had about Lawler, though they were focused more on the Senate race than his House district. Power-brokers were eager to clear the way for former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost his bid for Senate last year, to run a second time, with the NRSC going so far as to admonish donors not to give to Huizenga.

Huizenga, however, was undeterred, and according to an Associated Press report published Wednesday evening, he was "ready to launch" a Senate campaign. Trump, though, leaned on the eight-term congressman to stay away, the AP says, and Huizenga acknowledged in a statement that he made his decision "in consultation with President Trump."

Rogers now has no major opposition as he pursues the GOP nomination while Democrats have a contested primary.

Huizenga, however, was noncommittal about Trump's other request that, per the AP, he seek reelection. His 4th District in southwestern Michigan is at less risk of flipping than Lawler's seat, but Democrats hope to put it in play after Trump carried it by a relatively close 52-46 margin last year.

Two notable Democrats are already running, and the race would move higher up the party's target list should Huizenga retire. The congressman left that possibility open on Wednesday when he would only say, "I look forward to announcing my future plans later this year."

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The Downballot Podcast

Dems are about to land their biggest Senate recruit

The big boss is (almost) here: Former Gov. Roy Cooper is reportedly set to run for North Carolina's open Senate seat, and we're talking all about it on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Cooper is the Democrats' No. 1 recruit of the 2026 midterms.

We also talk with Brian Lemek, the executive director of Defend the Vote, about how his organization helps elect candidates eager to fight for democracy. Lemek tells us that it's okay for Democrats to acknowledge that the system is broken—and that doing so allows them to connect the task of fixing our democracy with voters' everyday concerns. He also flags some of his favorite candidates running this cycle, including one surprising name.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

Senate

NC-Sen

Former Gov. Roy Cooper has reportedly decided to run for North Carolina's open Senate seat and will announce his campaign next week, a huge development that would give Democrats one of their most sought-after recruits.

Republicans also received some significant news on Thursday morning when they learned that Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley will reportedly run with Donald Trump's backing.

Politico's Dasha Burns, who broke the news about Whatley, says that he will also have the backing of Lara Trump, who has decided to keep her Fox News show rather than enter the race. Burns adds that Whatley, who served as chair of the state GOP before Donald Trump elevated him during last year's presidential election, will announce "in the next week to 10 days."

Both reported developments are set to finally shape what's been an unpredictable race to replace GOP incumbent Thom Tillis, who unexpectedly ended his reelection campaign last month after voting against his party's budget bill.

Morning Digest: Two major GOP retirements boost Democrats' midterm hopes

The Cooper news, which was first reported by Axios' Stephen Neukam and later confirmed by other outlets, concludes months of tea-leaf reading about his plans. No one knew what the former governor, who left office in January, would do until Wednesday, and observers scrutinized everything he said for clues.

Former Rep. Wiley Nickel began campaigning against Tillis in April, though at the time of his launch, he held out the possibility he'd drop out if Cooper got in. Other Tar Heel State Democrats said they'd only consider running if Cooper opted out.

Cooper's team did nothing to tamp down on Democrats' excitement about the news that they'd soon have him on their ballot again. An advisor told McClatchy on Wednesday that, while he wouldn't confirm Axios' report, "Governor Cooper would be making his intentions known in the coming days."

Republicans, meanwhile, have also been eagerly waiting for word about Lara Trump, who is the daughter-in-law of the party's master. Every other potential GOP contender, including Whatley, had let it be known that they'd defer to Trump, and no big names entered the Senate race while they waited on her.

While Whatley didn't receive quite the same level of deference, he'll still likely scare off most major primary rivals if he has the White House on his side.

The News & Observer, which confirmed that Whatley will seek Tillis' seat, says that he has never run for office before during his decades in state and national GOP politics. Whatley attracted national attention during his bid to lead the RNC for his work spreading Donald Trump's lies about the 2020 election.

House

PA-07

Bob Brooks, who serves as president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association, is "gearing up" to challenge Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, reports Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin.

Brooks, who retired earlier this year after a long career in the Bethlehem Fire Department, has not yet publicly discussed entering the busy Democratic primary for the swingy 7th District.

TN-05

Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder tells the Tennessee Lookout that he's "strongly considering" seeking the Democratic nomination to face scandal-ridden Rep. Andy Ogles. Molder would join Mike Cortese, who is a member of Nashville's Metropolitan Council, in the primary.

"We deserve a congressman who wants to go to Washington to make local headlines for the right reasons, instead of attempting to make national headlines for the wrong reasons," Molder said of his would-be Republican opponent.

Last year, Donald Trump carried the 5th District, which the GOP gerrymandered after the 2020 census, by a wide 58-40 margin, and Ogles is acting like he'll be safe no matter what happens.

The incumbent raised a mere $50,000 during the second quarter of the year—a haul Punchbowl News characterized as "absolutely horrific"—and he had just $60,000 in the bank at the end of June. (Cortese entered the race after the new quarter began.)

Ogles has been the subject of a federal investigation over alleged campaign finance violations, but Nashville-based prosecutors withdrew from the case almost six months ago and left the matter in the hands of a prosecutor based in the Washington, D.C., headquarters of the Department of Justice. There was immediate speculation that Trump's subordinates would drop the probe against Ogles, but there's been no news during the ensuing time.

Ogles, though, has enjoyed making all sorts of other headlines. The congressman last month called for amending the Constitution to allow Trump to seek a third term, and he responded to Zohran Mamdani's win in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City by calling for him to be "DEPORTED" and "subject to denaturalization proceedings."

Closer to home, Ogles has urged the Department of Education to investigate Belmont University, a private Christian school based in Nashville, claiming "its administration is injecting anti-gospel DEI ideology into its curriculum."

Molder brought that up in his statement to the Lookout, saying, "Our current congressman's latest antics of attacking Belmont University are disturbing, and are becoming too familiar to all of us in the 5th Congressional District."

Attorneys General

MI-AG

Eaton County Prosecutor Doug Lloyd announced Tuesday that he would seek the Republican nomination for Michigan attorney general, a post held by termed-out Democrat Dana Nessel.

Lloyd joins attorney Kevin Kijewski, who has represented one of Michigan's phony electors in an ongoing criminal prosecution, on the GOP side, while Democrats also have multiple candidates running. Both parties will choose nominees at conventions next year rather than through traditional primaries.

Secretaries of State

GA-SoS

Businessman Kelvin King announced Tuesday that he'd seek the Republican nomination for secretary of state, a post held by GOP incumbent Brad Raffensperger. While Raffensperger has yet to announce his plans for next year, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution anticipates he'll run for governor or Senate rather than seek reelection.

King seems to agree that Georgia's current elections administrator won't be his opponent, because he's already picking a fight with one would-be primary rival. King did not directly name Gabriel Sterling, who is Raffensperger's top aide and someone the AJC calls "likely" to run, but he took some not-so-subtle jabs at him in his announcement.

King promised to oust "government employees who attack political candidates or supporters." He added, "We've seen unprofessional conduct, with press conferences aimed at attacking the president and concerned citizens."

Sterling, like Raffensperger, denounced Donald Trump's conspiracy theories following Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Georgia. King, by contrast, entertained those lies the following year as he ran for the U.S. Senate, saying, "I don't know what happened in terms of improprieties, but a lot of people in the state feel that way and they deserve to be heard."

King ended up taking just 3% in that primary, but he has one advantage he didn't have back then. His wife, Janelle King, was appointed last year to the state's Election Board, and she's drawn widespread attention as a far-right hardliner. Her fan club includes Trump, who extolled her and two like-minded colleagues as "pitbulls fighting for honesty, transparency, and victory."

Kelvin King launched his new campaign weeks after state Rep. Tim Fleming, a former chief of staff to Gov. Brian Kemp, filed to run for secretary of state. Democrats are awaiting their first major candidate for an office that Republicans have held since the 2006 elections.

Mayors & County Leaders

Detroit, MI Mayor

A newly released poll shows Detroit City Council President Mary Sheffield still far ahead in the Aug. 5 nonpartisan primary to succeed outgoing Mayor Mike Duggan, but there's plenty of uncertainty about who she'll end up facing in the November general election.

The Michigan-based firm Target Insyght shows Sheffield taking 34% as former Council President Saunteel Jenkins edges out pastor Solomon Kinloch 17-16 for the crucial second-place spot.

City Councilman Fred Durhal and former police chief James Craig, who is the lone notable Republican running, are far back with 6% each, while three other candidates trail still further. Target Insyght tells The Downballot that this poll, which was conducted July 8-10, was not done on behalf of a client.

The firm's last survey in May had Sheffield similarly situated at 32%, but much has changed for the rest of the field. At the time, Kinloch led Craig 25-19, while Jenkins was a distant fourth with 7%.

New Orleans, LA Mayor

New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno remains the frontrunner in the Oct. 11 contest for mayor, according to the first poll we've seen since state Sen. Royce Duplessis unexpectedly entered the race weeks ago.

The local firm Faucheux Strategies finds Moreno taking 47% of the vote, which is just short of the majority she'd need to avoid a November runoff. City Councilman Oliver Thomas holds a small 16-14 over Duplessis for second place, with former Judge Arthur Hunter taking just 5%. All the candidates are Democrats, as is termed-out Mayor LaToya Cantrell.

Faucheux conducted this poll on behalf of a group run by Sidney Torres, a prominent local businessman and former reality TV star. Torres said of Moreno, "I'm not coming out and endorsing her, but I think she's the right person to lead the city at this time."

Torres doesn't think so highly of Thomas. The Times-Picayune notes that he's trying to maintain a major trash contract in the French Quarter while Cantrell wants to award it to a Torres rival who is close to Thomas.