Morning Digest: Colin Allred is back for a second Senate bid
The ex-congressman says he's learned from last year's mistakes, but other Democrats are still eyeing the race
Leading Off
TX-Sen
Former Texas Rep. Colin Allred announced Tuesday that he would wage a second bid for the Senate.
Allred, who is the second major Democrat in the race, is seeking the seat held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is the underdog in his own primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Last year, Allred fell short against Ted Cruz in an expensive battle for the state's other Senate seat. He began his new effort by arguing he has a better shot this time.
The former congressman, who was a linebacker for the Tennessee Titans before becoming a civil rights lawyer, talked about his first career as he discussed why his 2026 bid would be different from his 2024 race.
"I think in football, we sometimes learn more from a loss than we do from a win, and so I've analyzed the tape," he told the Dallas News' Gromer Jeffers. Saying he has a new perspective now that he's no longer in Washington, Allred added, "I'm hoping that I can show folks that I'm not just running again, but that I have a plan for what I think we can do to address a broken and rigged system."
After fellow Democrats criticized him last time for not holding enough rallies or doing enough to win in smaller areas, Allred pledged to "campaign harder than I've ever campaigned."
Allred also argued that the political environment would also be better than last year, when he lost to Cruz 53-45 as Donald Trump was carrying the state by a considerably wider 56-42 spread. While Allred did not mention Trump in his launch video, he told Jeffers he believed he was tough enough to resist the GOP's leader as well as both Cornyn and Paxton.
Allred, though, did go after both of his would-be Republican opponents in his opening message.
"Texans are working harder than ever, not getting as much time with their kids, missing those special moments, all to be able to afford less," he says. "And the people that we elected to help—politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton— are too corrupt to care about us and too weak to fight for us."
Allred, who first won his House seat in the 2018 blue wave by flipping a longtime GOP bastion in the Dallas area, would be the state's first Black senator. First, though, he has to win a competitive and potentially crowded primary before he can focus on what will be a difficult general election.
Retired astronaut Terry Virts entered the race last week by touting himself as a political newcomer who represents "a clean break from the past." Rep. Joaquin Castro, state Rep. James Talarico, and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke—who came close to beating Cruz in 2018—are also all talking about running.
A primary runoff would take place if no one earns a majority of the vote in the first round. Allred won his last primary outright with close to 60% of the vote, though he might not enjoy the overwhelming financial advantage he had last year.
Jeffers reported last week that Allred, Castro, O'Rourke, and Talarico convened at the end of May to discuss which of them should run—but each man came away convinced he should be the candidate. (Virts was not mentioned in the article, nor have there been any reports that he's been part of similar conversations.)
O'Rourke held a rally last week in San Antonio featuring both O'Rourke and Talarico, while Allred was invited but unable to attend. Talarico, who has said he's also thinking about running for governor or staying in the legislature, insisted at the event that the four are "not rivals" and would "coordinate and work together." None of the three prospective candidates, though, has said anything about deferring to Allred now that he's running.
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2Q Fundraising
The second fundraising quarter of the year, covering the period from April 1 through June 30, has come to an end, meaning federal candidates will have to file campaign finance reports with the FEC by July 15. But as per usual, campaigns with strong hauls are releasing numbers early, which we've gathered below. (Note that candidates for state and local office often file disclosures on different timetables.)
IL-Sen: Juliana Stratton (D): $1 million raised (in nine weeks)
ME-Sen: Jordan Wood (D): $1.35 million raised (in nine weeks), additional $250,000 self-funded
MI-Sen: Mallory McMorrow (D): $2.1 million raised
SC-Sen: Annie Andrews (D): $1.2 million raised (in one month)
CA-Gov: Xavier Becerra (D): $1.3 million raised, additional $1.1 million transferred from federal account, $2 million cash on hand
FL-Gov: Byron Donalds (R): $22 million raised (in four months)
GA-Gov: Jason Esteves (D): $1.1 million raised (in two months)
ME-Gov: Hannah Pingree (D): $525,000 raised (in 20 days)
OH-Gov: Vivek Ramaswamy (R): $9.7 million raised (in four months, no self-funding)
IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc): $780,000 raised, $1.2 million cash on hand; Sarah Trone Garriott (D): $520,000 raised (in two months)
IL-07: Jason Friedman (D): $1 million raised (no self-funding)
MA-08: Patrick Roath (D): $286,000 raised (in two months)
MI-07: Bridget Brink (D): $500,000 raised (in two weeks)
MN-02: Matt Little (D): $300,000 raised (in two months), $250,000 cash on hand
NE-02: Denise Powell (D): $430,000 raised (in two months)
NJ-02: Bayly Winder (D): $170,000 raised (in one week)
NJ-07: Brian Varela (D): $700,000 raised (about half self-funded), $603,000 cash on hand
NY-17: Cait Conley (D): $460,000 raised; Beth Davidson (D): $350,000 raised; Jessica Reinmann (D): $109,000 raised, additional $115,000 self-funded, $443,000 cash on hand
PA-07: Ryan Crosswell (D): $320,000 raised (in three weeks), $245,000 cash on hand
Senate
AL-Sen
Bruce Pearl, who coaches Auburn University's men's basketball team, did not rule out seeking the Republican nod for Alabama's open Senate seat on Sunday night.
Pearl responded to a question from Fox News host Brian Kilmeade about his interest with a long answer that began, "I love my country, but I love being the basketball coach at Auburn." Pearl continued by bashing the Democratic Party and praising Donald Trump for "the leadership that he's taking in the Middle East."
Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson and Attorney General Steve Marshall are already campaigning to succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville, a fellow Republican who is running for governor, while other potential candidates are considering joining them in the primary.
Tuberville, who was Auburn's football coach before he went into politics, would be happy if Pearl weren't one of them. Referring to Pearl, Tuberbille said in May, "I wouldn't let him do it because he did such a good job at Auburn."
CO-Sen
Zero prominent Republicans have shown any interest in challenging Democratic Sen. John Hickenlooper next year, and the Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul reports that things are just as quiet behind the scenes.
One unnamed GOP consultant succinctly summed up why Centennial State Republicans don't want to take on Hickenlooper by saying, "They don't believe that they can win."
Paul does relay that former University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl is "rumored to be interested," but that news isn't likely to excite many members of her party. While Ganahl's 2016 victory makes her the last Republican to win statewide in Colorado, her 2022 campaign against Democratic Gov. Jared Polis ended with her on the wrong side of a 59-39 blowout.
There's also been talk that far-right state Rep. Brandi Bradley could run, but she dismissed the idea as "funny." Bradley told Paul, "I'm glad I guess that I'm so relevant."
NC-Sen
Democratic Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt's team tells the National Journal's Nicholas Anastacio that, while she wants former Gov. Roy Cooper to seek North Carolina's open Senate seat, "she's not ruling anything out" if Cooper opts against a bid. Hunt, who is the daughter of former Gov. Jim Hunt, won a tight race last year even as Donald Trump was carrying the state.
Politico also mentions state Rep. Sarah Crawford and Canton Mayor Zeb Smathers as possible Democratic candidates if Cooper passes on the race. Neither, however, appears to have said anything publicly about their interest.
On the Republican side, Rep. Richard Hudson said Tuesday he would stay out of the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Hudson serves as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, so he almost certainly would have had to relinquish that role had he run for the Senate.
Fellow Rep. Pat Harrigan has no such constraints, but like almost every other Tar Heel Republican, he's waiting on one well-connected pol to decide.
"There's lots of excitement around the 2026 Senate race, but let me be crystal clear about something: if @LaraLeaTrump enters this race, I'll be the first to endorse her and the first to fight for her victory," Harrigan tweeted.
Donald Trump also confirmed Tuesday that he wants his daughter-in-law, who is married to Eric Trump, to have the right of first refusal, even though she doesn't reside in the state she'd represent—as the paterfamilias himself noted at length.
"Somebody that would really be great is Lara," he told reporters. "She grew up there, but they live in Florida. They have a very good life and they're great people."
"She's a great person, Lara Trump," he continued. "I mean, that would always be my first choice, but she doesn't live there now, but she's there all the time, her parents are there. You know, she really knows North Carolina well."
Governors
GA-Gov
Former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, a Georgia Republican whose condemnation of Donald Trump's election lies made him a pariah within his party, now says he might run for governor as a Democrat.
"If given the opportunity to be taken seriously by the Democrats and have an opportunity to shift the platform, I'd certainly think about it," Duncan told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution of this open-seat race. He added that he wouldn't run as either a Republican or an independent.
Duncan won a tight race in 2018, but he found himself in the doghouse two years later when he refused to go along with Trump's attempts to overturn his defeat in the state. Trump angrily denounced him as a "RINO Never Trumper who got himself elected as LG by falsely claiming to be 'pro-Trump" and called for him to "be replaced!"
Duncan announced in 2021 that he wouldn't seek reelection the following year and would instead form a group called "GOP 2.0" to advance the "healing and rebuilding" of the Republican Party. The former lieutenant governor, however, soon realized that GOP 1.0 wasn't going anywhere and began to look for alternatives.
The "No Labels" party showed some interest in making Duncan its candidate for president in 2024, but he instead endorsed first Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris. The state GOP finally voted in January to expel Duncan from the party, to which he responded, "What took them so long?"
But while Duncan argues he'd be a strong candidate for Democrats, not everyone is convinced he could emerge as the party's nominee. State Rep. David Wilkerson told the AJC that, while it's "unfortunate for Duncan that the Republican party has moved so far to the right," it would also be difficult "for anyone who has been so closely tied to the GOP brand to win a 2026 Democratic primary."
Three well-established Democrats are already campaigning to replace GOP Gov. Brian Kemp: former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, state Sen. Jason Esteves, and state Rep. Derrick Jackson. Former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond is also talking about running.
NY-Gov
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul holds wide leads against three prospective Republican foes in a new poll from Siena College, though much of the electorate remains uncommitted to any candidate:
44-24 vs. Rep. Mike Lawler
47-24 vs. Elise Stefanik
44-19 vs. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman
The school also shows Hochul defeating Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado 49-12 in the Democratic primary, with Rep. Ritchie Torres taking 10%.
Delgado announced a campaign last month, while Torres has not yet committed to running. The congressman said in early June he'd only run if former Gov. Andrew Cuomo were elected mayor of New York City, but he hasn't said anything new about his thinking in the week since Cuomo lost the Democratic primary to Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.
SD-Gov
Former Gov. Dennis Daugaard on Monday endorsed Rep. Dusty Johnson, who is his old chief of staff, in the Republican primary for South Dakota's governorship.
The ex-governor took sides even though incumbent Larry Rhoden, whom Daugaard characterized as a friend to the South Dakota Searchlight, has yet to announce if he'll seek a full term. Rhoden's lieutenant governor is Tony Venhuizen, who is Daugaard's son-in-law.
House
KY-04
State Sen. Aaron Reed confirmed Monday that he was interested in challenging Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, who is currently the Republican Donald Trump hates the most, in next year's primary.
Reed, in brief comments to the Courier Journal, did not give a timeline for when he'd decide beyond saying, "When God tells me." Politico recently reported that the Trump officials will soon host the lawmaker—who previously dismissed reports that he might run as "fake news"—at the White House.
Reed, though, is not the only Republican interested in opposing Massie. When Kentucky's Voice asked farmer Ed Gallrein whether he'd run for Congress if he "were needed" in "a specific race," Gallrein answered in the affirmative. The Lexington Herald-Leader's Austin Horn notes that Reed lives in Massie's 4th District in the northern part of the state.
Reed and Gallrein, who are both Navy SEAL veterans, ran against one another last year when they both challenged state Sen. Adrienne Southworth for renomination. Reed narrowly outpaced Gallrein 39-38, while the balance went to the incumbent.
Massie, for his part, has one well-heeled—though far from reliable—fan. Elon Musk responded to former Michigan Rep. Justin Amash's call for him to back Massie by pledging, "I will." Musk, whose off-again, on-again feud with Trump is currently back on, typed those words on the same day he mused about starting a third party.
MI-07
Former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam announced Tuesday that he'd seek the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Rep. Tom Barrett in Michigan's swingy 7th District.
Maasdam began his campaign with a launch video highlighting his service in Iraq and Afghanistan prior to becoming a national security aide in the Obama administration. Maasdam's duties included carrying the "nuclear football," the briefcase that allows the president to authorize the use of nuclear weapons.
The Detroit Free Press writes that Maasdam, a Nebraska native who attended the University of Michigan, returned to the Wolverine State six years ago and lives outside the 7th District around Ann Arbor. Maasdam's team says he's planning to relocate to Barrett's constituency, which includes Lansing and nearby communities.
Maasdam's entry comes two weeks after former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink became the first prominent Democrat to launch a campaign. Other Democrats are also considering bids for the 7th District, which favored Donald Trump just 49.9 to 48.6 last year.
NE-02
Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding on Tuesday became the first prominent Republican to announce a campaign to succeed GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who said the day earlier that he would not seek reelection in Nebraska's swingy 2nd District.
Harding entered the race with endorsements from Sen. Deb Fischer and former Gov. Dave Heineman. He also has the support of City Councilwoman Aimee Melton, who had reportedly considered running herself.
Two other prospective Republican candidates, Douglas County Sheriff Aaron Hanson and former Nebraska Federation of Young Republicans chair Chris Chappelear, also said they wouldn't run. Unlike Melton, however, neither of them endorsed anyone.
Harding may face intraparty opposition before long, though: Former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom confirmed his interest in a statement on Monday and said he'd spend "the next few days" speaking to people.
Lindstrom ran for the previous version of this seat in 2012 and lost the primary to then-Rep. Lee Terry 59-23. Two years later, however, he was elected to Nebraska's unicameral legislature, and he went on to run for governor in 2022 when Gov. Pete Ricketts was term-limited.
Lindstrom hoped to take advantage of the expensive and ugly battle between University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen, who was Ricketts' endorsed candidate, and Charles Herbster, a wealthy businessman who had Donald Trump's support. Pillen, though, outpaced Herbster 34-30, while Lindstrom finished third with 26%.
The Nebraska Examiner also reports that another potential repeat candidate, businessman Dan Frei, is thinking about waging what would be his third campaign for the 2nd District, though he hasn't said anything publicly.
Frei took on Terry in 2014 and held the incumbent to a shockingly close 53-47 margin despite raising little money. That poor showing for Terry foreshadowed his subsequent loss to Democrat Brad Ashford in what was otherwise a great year for the GOP nationally, though Bacon reclaimed this seat for the GOP in 2016. Frei opposed Bacon last year only to lose 62-38.
On the Democratic side, the Cook Political Report's Erin Covey says that Navy veteran Kishla Askins "is close to launching a campaign." Several Democrats were already running to flip this seat before Bacon announced his retirement.
NH-01
Attorney Christian Urrutia, who served in the Department of Defense during the Biden administration, announced Tuesday that he was joining the busy Democratic primary for New Hampshire's open 1st District. This competitive seat is held by Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who is leaving to run for the Senate.
Urrutia, a member of the state's Army National Guard, touted himself as an "unapologetically progressive" candidate who represented an alternative to the "caution" often espoused by Democratic leaders. He used his launch video to declare, "There'll be many good Democrats in this race, but familiar names and the politics of yesterday aren't enough to meet the moment."
NJ-07
Physician Tina Shah, who served as a healthcare advisor in both the Obama and Biden administrations, announced on Tuesday that she'd enter the crowded Democratic primary in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District.
Shah, a practicing ICU doctor, slammed Republican Rep. Tom Kean for "dodging his constituents while casting the deciding vote to gut Medicaid and attacking access to essential care, including abortion" in comments to the New Jersey Globe.
Last cycle, Shah reportedly came close to challenging Kean but opted not to. Four other notable Democrats were already running this time around, including Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett, former Summit Councilman Greg Vartan, and a pair of businessmen, Michael Roth and Brian Varela.
According to calculations from The Downballot, the 7th District, based in the suburbs southwest of New York City, voted for Donald Trump by a 49.6 to 48.5 margin in 2024.
NY-10
In response to a question from a caller to a radio show on Monday, New York City Comptroller Brad Lander declined to rule out running against Rep. Dan Goldman in next year's Democratic primary, saying only, "We'll see what the future holds for me."
According to VoteHub, Goldman's 10th District—which is based in lower Manhattan and northwestern Brooklyn neighborhoods like Lander's own Park Slope—was the comptroller's best in the city in last week's mayoral primary.
Among first-choice votes, Lander took 23.0%, finishing just behind Andrew Cuomo's 23.3% showing. Zohran Mamdani, who cross-endorsed Lander, won 46% en route to his citywide victory. (Ranked-choice tabulations at the district level are not yet available.) Should Mamdani win again in November, though, it's possible that Lander could take a position in his administration.
TN-07
State Rep. Jay Reedy informs the Tennessee Lookout he'll enter the upcoming special election to replace Rep. Mark Green, a fellow Republican who has said he plans to resign from Congress following passage of the GOP's budget bill.
Reed joins Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, Army veteran Jon Thorp, and former state cabinet member Matt Van Epps in the primary. Several Democrats have also expressed interest in running to flip the 7th District despite Donald Trump's 60-38 win last year, but no prominent candidates have announced yet.
Mayors & County Leaders
Miami, FL Mayor
Former Miami City Manager Emilio Gonzalez filed a lawsuit on Monday in response to the City Commission's vote last week to immediately move municipal elections from odd to even years.
Gonzalez, who is running in what was supposed to be this fall's contest to succeed termed-out Mayor Francis Suarez, argues in his suit that the decision to postpone the election a year "bypassed the democratic will of the people" in a way that was "[r]eminiscent of regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, or Cuba."
Gonzalez also highlighted an advisory opinion previously issued by Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier that said that such a change couldn't happen without voter approval.
New York, NY Mayor
Ranked-choice tabulations published by election officials on Tuesday confirmed Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani as the winner of last week's Democratic primary for mayor, giving him a 56-44 win over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Among first-choice voters, Mamdani prevailed by a 43.5 to 36.5 margin.
Because the city used "batch elimination" to redistribute the votes of candidates who were mathematically eliminated, only three rounds were needed: the first to redistribute votes from those who voted for write-in candidates, and the second to redistribute votes for every candidate on the ballot except Mamdani and Cuomo.
That makes it impossible to immediately know how redistributed votes flowed from one candidate to the next, but Steven Romalewski of the CUNY Mapping Center says that when officials release more granular "cast-vote records" later this summer, it will be possible to reconstruct such flows.
A spokesperson for Cuomo, who has not ruled out forging on to the general election as an independent, responded to the tabulations by saying the ex-governor was "continuing conversations with people from all across the city while determining next steps."
The spokesperson also added, "Extremism, division and empty promises are not the answer to this city's problems, and while this was a look at what motivates a slice of our primary electorate, it does not represent the majority." Mathematically, 56% is widely considered to be a majority.
In our last Digest, we incorrectly used the 2020 presidential election results for San Diego County’s 1st Supervisor District instead of the 2024 results. Kamala Harris carried this constituency 59-39 in 2024, while Joe Biden won it 67-31 in 2020.
"Mathematically, 56% is widely considered to be a majority."
I'm keeping this in my back pocket, that was good.
NC Representative Deborah Ross told Politico she believes Roy Cooper will run for the U.S. Senate seat and he'll make his final decision in the next two weeks.